Welcome to Ask Fear and Greed, where we take your questions and do our best to answer them. I'm Michael Thompson and good afternoon, Sean Aylmer.

Welcome to Ask Fear and Greed, where we take your questions and do our best to answer them. I'm Michael Thompson and good afternoon, Sean Aylmer.

Good afternoon, Michael.

Good afternoon, Michael.

I love today's question, Sean. It has come from Lockee on Facebook and you can go to Facebook or Instagram or LinkedIn any of the social media platforms all to our website Feargreed dot com dot are you to send your question in? Locke says, though, how do we expect the goings on in international trade to affect the average Australian? Should middle class punters that hold a job and have a mortgage expect big changes given all of the action in the US And Sean, I can just tell by the look on your face that there is not a very straightforward, easy answer. We're not getting out of here in under two minutes.

I love today's question, Sean. It has come from Lockee on Facebook and you can go to Facebook or Instagram or LinkedIn any of the social media platforms all to our website Feargreed dot com dot are you to send your question in? Locke says, though, how do we expect the goings on in international trade to affect the average Australian? Should middle class punters that hold a job and have a mortgage expect big changes given all of the action in the US And Sean, I can just tell by the look on your face that there is not a very straightforward, easy answer. We're not getting out of here in under two minutes.

That's correct. I think the short answer, Locke is no, don't worry about it too much. Oh that was quick, I know, I know, thanks very much for joining. No, no, please, there's more to it than that, right there is, But we in the media make a big thing of it. But at the end of the day, let's think about it. So if you think about this strategically, Why is Donald Trump doing this? A lot of the stuff isn't about what he's doing on the economy and inflation and how that will feed through to Australia. A lot of it's about, you know, trying to reduce a supply of drugs, migration, those sorts of issues. He's also the retaliatory tariffs. That's kind of level playing field stuff for him. Whether a country has a trade surplus. He doesn't like countries with a trade surplus. We actually have a trade deficit with the US. We buy more stuff from them than they buy from US, so that's kind of good. There's a bunch of things like he's trying to boost the US steel sector that could hurt some of our guys, although one steal big producer actually is in Ohio, so that might actually benefit from that. He's also trying to raise more money through taxes and stuff like that. So if you think of those things as the reasons he's doing it, that shouldn't hurt Australia too much because on most of those were on the positive side. So he's certainly not going to target us like he's targeted Canada, Mexico, EU, China. However, we might in the scheme of things, be collateral damage if the global economy slows.

That's correct. I think the short answer, Locke is no, don't worry about it too much. Oh that was quick, I know, I know, thanks very much for joining. No, no, please, there's more to it than that, right there is, But we in the media make a big thing of it. But at the end of the day, let's think about it. So if you think about this strategically, Why is Donald Trump doing this? A lot of the stuff isn't about what he's doing on the economy and inflation and how that will feed through to Australia. A lot of it's about, you know, trying to reduce a supply of drugs, migration, those sorts of issues. He's also the retaliatory tariffs. That's kind of level playing field stuff for him. Whether a country has a trade surplus. He doesn't like countries with a trade surplus. We actually have a trade deficit with the US. We buy more stuff from them than they buy from US, so that's kind of good. There's a bunch of things like he's trying to boost the US steel sector that could hurt some of our guys, although one steal big producer actually is in Ohio, so that might actually benefit from that. He's also trying to raise more money through taxes and stuff like that. So if you think of those things as the reasons he's doing it, that shouldn't hurt Australia too much because on most of those were on the positive side. So he's certainly not going to target us like he's targeted Canada, Mexico, EU, China. However, we might in the scheme of things, be collateral damage if the global economy slows.

I was going to ask you about that then in terms of because a lot of the talk when the tariffs were first being announced was the potential for it to have an inflationary effect globally, and Australia would not necessarily be immune to that.

I was going to ask you about that then in terms of because a lot of the talk when the tariffs were first being announced was the potential for it to have an inflationary effect globally, and Australia would not necessarily be immune to that.

Yes, So what's interesting about fifteen percent of the stuff that Americans buy is imported, so means eighty five percent is locally made. So in some certain areas and you'll see some fruits and stuff like that, prices will go through the roof, But across the it's not like there's going to be these wholesale massive price increases in the US. So does that mean there's lots of global inflation? If other economies say, well the US is doing this, we're going to go right back at you, and so all the products go buy out of the US gets a twenty five percent tarer of fifteen percent. I mean, obviously the general level of prices does rise, and I think if you know, we won't see that for two to three years, okay, but I mean probably six to nine months it'll start but the full effect would be two to three years.

Yes, So what's interesting about fifteen percent of the stuff that Americans buy is imported, so means eighty five percent is locally made. So in some certain areas and you'll see some fruits and stuff like that, prices will go through the roof, But across the it's not like there's going to be these wholesale massive price increases in the US. So does that mean there's lots of global inflation? If other economies say, well the US is doing this, we're going to go right back at you, and so all the products go buy out of the US gets a twenty five percent tarer of fifteen percent. I mean, obviously the general level of prices does rise, and I think if you know, we won't see that for two to three years, okay, but I mean probably six to nine months it'll start but the full effect would be two to three years.

So it's really quite delayed.

So it's really quite delayed.

Yeah, definitely because by the time you make orders and you pay the bill. And it's even what Donald Trump's talking about, we don't know how that's going to be implemented yet. The execute Donald Tump talks a big game, but it's all about the execution. That's where we find out where it really hurts or not. And sort of some of the earnings we've reported here, we've seen like Ansel the Glover that they talked about lifting prices because tariffs are going up, so when males make our money elsewhere, So now that will hurt us.

Yeah, definitely because by the time you make orders and you pay the bill. And it's even what Donald Trump's talking about, we don't know how that's going to be implemented yet. The execute Donald Tump talks a big game, but it's all about the execution. That's where we find out where it really hurts or not. And sort of some of the earnings we've reported here, we've seen like Ansel the Glover that they talked about lifting prices because tariffs are going up, so when males make our money elsewhere, So now that will hurt us.

But I've got to.

But I've got to.

Say, like mostly it's at the margin. Where it really hurts us is if the whole global global economy slows down and China just doesn't want to buy as much of our iron ore right, nothing to do with the US. Just China's going slower, not going to build as many bridges, build as many roads. Indonesia sort of the same deal. That's when it hurts us most probably.

Say, like mostly it's at the margin. Where it really hurts us is if the whole global global economy slows down and China just doesn't want to buy as much of our iron ore right, nothing to do with the US. Just China's going slower, not going to build as many bridges, build as many roads. Indonesia sort of the same deal. That's when it hurts us most probably.

Okay, and that impact would play out on Lockie how.

Okay, and that impact would play out on Lockie how.

Well it slows down our economy. So like if you've got a job and you light your wage. I don't think you're much to worry about. The thing is if you want to change So let's say this all comes to pass. Everyone's got more tariffs. The global economy slows, Australia slows, and when Australia slows, unemployment goes up. So if you want to change jobs, you want to get a wage rise, it's much harder. So in the short term, I don't think Locke makes any difference twelve months, two years. It is possible that the unemployment rate isn't four percent, it's five or six percent. It is possible that wage rises aren't three and a half percent, there's zero or one percent. So certainly that could happen. But it's not like you're going to lose your job tomorrow or anything like that.

Well it slows down our economy. So like if you've got a job and you light your wage. I don't think you're much to worry about. The thing is if you want to change So let's say this all comes to pass. Everyone's got more tariffs. The global economy slows, Australia slows, and when Australia slows, unemployment goes up. So if you want to change jobs, you want to get a wage rise, it's much harder. So in the short term, I don't think Locke makes any difference twelve months, two years. It is possible that the unemployment rate isn't four percent, it's five or six percent. It is possible that wage rises aren't three and a half percent, there's zero or one percent. So certainly that could happen. But it's not like you're going to lose your job tomorrow or anything like that.

All right, so Lockie can kind of sleep easy for the next six to nine months and then start to get a little bit more anxious overnight.

All right, so Lockie can kind of sleep easy for the next six to nine months and then start to get a little bit more anxious overnight.

Then yeah, And it just depends on what happens to the global economy more than what Donald Trump says.

Then yeah, And it just depends on what happens to the global economy more than what Donald Trump says.

Okay, fascinating, there are so many and there are so many things that can change it, right, There are so many individual little pieces and Donald Trump is really just one.

Okay, fascinating, there are so many and there are so many things that can change it, right, There are so many individual little pieces and Donald Trump is really just one.

Yeah, what I think Donald Yeah, I think what Donald Trump does more so than the rules he's changing. So the DEI stuff, diversity equity inclusion stuff. You now see companies around the world and those that operate here dropping the DEI policies. Now inside the halls, they may actually make no difference. They may say, look, we're still going to think, you know, we're just gonna want to get the best candidate, and that's that it's a bit ingrained, and therefore they get the best candidate. And that's the same as having a DI policy, because you know, diverse people are as good as Candida as anyone else. But I don't know, but it's at the margins. I think some of those things will have an.

Yeah, what I think Donald Yeah, I think what Donald Trump does more so than the rules he's changing. So the DEI stuff, diversity equity inclusion stuff. You now see companies around the world and those that operate here dropping the DEI policies. Now inside the halls, they may actually make no difference. They may say, look, we're still going to think, you know, we're just gonna want to get the best candidate, and that's that it's a bit ingrained, and therefore they get the best candidate. And that's the same as having a DI policy, because you know, diverse people are as good as Candida as anyone else. But I don't know, but it's at the margins. I think some of those things will have an.

Effect fascinating, you know what I reckon, I reckon. We have answered Locke's question, so we I mean it's mostly ninety percent.

Effect fascinating, you know what I reckon, I reckon. We have answered Locke's question, so we I mean it's mostly ninety percent.

You Lockey is safe.

You Lockey is safe.

Yeah, yeah, you're all right, Lockie. Don't stress too much at this point. But thank you very much for the question, and thank you Sean for answering it.

Yeah, yeah, you're all right, Lockie. Don't stress too much at this point. But thank you very much for the question, and thank you Sean for answering it.

Thanks Michael, Thanks Lockey.

Thanks Michael, Thanks Lockey.

Remember, if you've got something that you would like to know, then please send through your question on LinkedIn Instagram, Facebook like Lockie did, or head Fear and Greed dot com dot au and send it via an email through the website oh Michael Thompson and this is asked Fear and Greed

Remember, if you've got something that you would like to know, then please send through your question on LinkedIn Instagram, Facebook like Lockie did, or head Fear and Greed dot com dot au and send it via an email through the website oh Michael Thompson and this is asked Fear and Greed