Tuesday 10 December 2024
The long term boss of ANZ retires, and the country’s fourth largest bank appoints a European banker with no experience in Australia.
And more, including:
The rate of casual employment picks up as the work from home phenomenon continues.
And the global advertising industry set to push beyond $US1 trillion.
Plus more on the terror attack at a Melbourne synagogue, and good and bad news in the latest Newspoll for Anthony Albanese.
Plus don’t miss the final episode of The Property Pendulum, brought to you by Domain and Fear & Greed: seven steps to property nirvana. Get it from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
Today on Fear and Greed, the long term boss of A and Z retires and the country's fourth largest bank appoints a European banker with no experience in Australia. The rate of casual employment picks up as the work from home phenomenon continues, and the global advertising industry set to push beyond one trillion US dollars. Plus more on the terror attack at a Melbourne synagogue and good and bad news in the latest news poll for Anthony Albanezi. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Tuesday, the tenth of December twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.
Good morning, Michael.
You can actually hear me checking the dates, can't you as well?
You can?
Oh, God, one day, one day, I'm just going to completely come out with the wrong date and you are going to hold me to account. Shown the main story this morning, the long term boss of A and Z, Shane Elliott, will retire and be replaced by a Portuguese banker who the bank's board says is an expert in business risk and technology transformations.
All very good, but doesn't know much about Australia. I wonder. Shane Elliott has been chief executive officer for nine years. He is the longest serving boss of a major bank in Australia. The fact that yesterday he retired means that three of the four banks have gotten new CEOs this year. Not Commonwealth Banks Matt common He's still there and now the veteran of the group. Shan Elliott has been considered a pretty good CEO, highlighted by his determination to acquire sun Corpse banking business. That's the determination that took him through an HBLEC process and appealing the rejection of that deal. More recently, his reputation has probably been tarnished just a touched by an investigation by the Securities Watchdog into where the traders at the bank manipulated the pricing of a fourteen billion dollar government bond sale earlier this year. Mister Eliot will remain until the middle of next year before handing handing over to a gentleman called Nuno Martos in Unomatos Martos pretty much an unknown in the Australian banking community. His most recent role as CEO of HSBC in Europe has involved eighty seven thousand employees, forty million customers and thirty five markets. He also looked after Mexico as well. He's walked worked in Portugal, Peru, Brazil, Mexico and Hong Kong. Apparently he's an expert in business transitions. Ains. It has two very big ones underway, splitting its technology platform into two. It wants basically an updated version for its retail customers and another updated version for big business institutional customers. And the second thing is integrating that sun Court business.
Sean, I've got two questions for you about it. Right is right? Just how different is Australian banking to the rest of the world. And then the secondary part of that, or maybe the most important part is do global executives do well? Then coming to Australian financial services institutions.
Okay, the first part, the Australian economy is very bank heavy. I mean four of the top seven companies in the economy are banks, so they almost play a bigger role in our society than most other economies. So we you know, whenever the boss of Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, National Australian Bank or ain Z speaks, it's always on the news people listen they have the year of politicians, so I think that is different. Second, bank stocks in Australia, especially the Commonwealth Bank, but all of them are priced much higher. They've got a lot of shit areholders, so they have a greater responsibility almost. The third part of it, which I think is really kind of interesting, is that people use banks differently in Australia. So an example is Australians have a far greater number of variable rate mortgages compared to the rest of the world, So the UK US mostly they're fixed rate mortgages. Where variable rate mortgages. That makes the world a very different place in terms of monetary policy of how banks manage risk that type of stuff. So I think it is different in do global execs do well in Australia, To be perfectly honest, I don't think they've in The track history is not particularly good if just leave the minders out, because they're global companies. Real amp's had a couple of high profile international bosses over the years, not a good track record at all. A and Z actually had a guy called John McFarlane who then went on to be chairman of Westpac. John was CEO and considered a very successful CEO a Scotsman. So perhaps that's the exception to the rule. Most top companies in Australia they run by Australians. In fact, top fifty company. I'm going to get it wrong. I'm sure outside mining. I don't think there's an international CEO who runs a top fifty company outside mining.
Oh wow, okay, so this is this has the potential to be well, generate a lot of headlines for one thing. Be interesting to see what he does.
Yeah, well, I mean will he bring his own people in. Certainly, investors sold down A and Z yesterday. It was off more than three percent, so the initial reaction isn't particularly positive. But we'll wait and see.
Yeah we will indeed, all right, sure, And moving on from banking now, they're around two zero point five million casual workers in Australia, with a vast majority not wanting to go permanent while working from home is slightly that's common now than.
It was a year ago, but still more common than pre pandemic. There was a bunch of statistics from the Bureau of Stats yesterday. Basically it said twenty two point three percent of works are now casual and the vast majority of those, about three quarters of them, are happy to keep it that way. That of course has implications around industrial relations reforms that the government has introduced and the shift from casualization to part time work. It just seems that most people actually want to remain casuals. The reason they like it flexibillion in ours was number one reason. The number two reason was higher hourly pay rates. Of course, when you're casually get a hourly pay rate because you don't get holiday pay and stuff like that. Casual employment was certainly hit by the pandemic, went from about twenty five percent to twenty one percent in twenty twenty. It jumped, but now it's come back down. So in actual fact, we're not a particularly casual workforce at the moment. In terms of work from high thirty six percent of Australians that usually work from home. That's about four percentage points higher than the pre pandemics, so we've stuck with it to some extent. Anyway, flexible hours is the main reason they're followed by people operating a business from home. And the final piece of info from the bureaus that's yesterday, which I thought was quite interesting, is trade union membership. It's actually on the rise. Thirty point one percent of all employees are now a member of a trade union. It was only twelve point five percent two years ago.
One g.
Ten years ago it was more than sixteen percent.
Sean, I'm surprised by one of those stats in there, that worked from home statistic. Thirty six percent of Australians usually work from home and that's just four percentage points higher than pre pandemic number one. I'm surprised that it was so high pre pandemic, and I'm quite surprised that it is not much much much higher now, even though I know that it has been a shift towards back towards the office.
So I think the term there usually work from home is important as opposed to sometimes works from home. If you had sometimes works from home, that number of a bit a lot higher.
Okay, all right, it all comes down to the language, doesn't it.
Just it's all about definitions, Michael.
You know, this feels like it feels like we are like analyzing the Reserve Bank statement or something, you know, where they just they pour over it looking for individual words, trying to glean more information, which I mean, which will be happening later today, of course, a bit more on that later on. Sean Asio says there is no ongoing threat following a Melbourne synagogue fire bombing late last week, an incident which was yesterday designated a terrorist attack.
Director General Mike Burgess, that's Director General of ASIA, has said the agency had been conducting its own inquiries. No intelligence to suggest that there is a threat of ongoing terror. Mind you, the national terrorism threat remains at probable. Mister Bird has said the security environment is volatile and unpredictable and anti authority beliefs continue to grow while grievances are spreading. He added that inflamed language can lead to violence and so people need to watch their words. A special AFP operation that's Australian Federal Police operation into anti Semitism has been launched following the attack in Melbourne last week.
All right, Sean, We've got plenty still to cover. We are talking good and bad news for the Prime Minister. We've got plenty of markets. News and Google and Meta helped push the global advertising industry to a record high. Lots to come. We're back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean The latest News poll shows the federal government and opposition tied on a two party preferred basis ahead of the Christmas break, though Anthony Albanezi does remain the most preferred prime minister.
It was good news and bad news for the government the News poll in the Australian SO two party preferred the parties were at fifty to fifty, which is actually a slight improvement for Labor. They were behind forty nine to fifty one as preferred prime minister. Forty five percent have picked Anthony Albanesi, thirty eight percent Peter Dutton, the rest not so sure. The coalition's primary vote fell one point to thirty nine percent compared to the alp on thirty three percent. The Greens were on eleven percent. Of course, Green's preferences run to Labor generally as a result, that's why you get the tightening when it comes to the two party preferred option. The bad news for the government, though, is that Anthony Alberesi is considered the weakest prime minister in decades and Opposition leader Peter Dutton is considered a stronger and more decisive leader. He is also well Anthony Albanesi is also considered increasingly out of touch with voters, losing an advantage over Dunton in areas including cost of living, the economy, and social unrest.
Now, Sean, you spoke about A and Z earlier. How did local markets perform yesterday?
Well, we're in a bit of a holding pattern, waiting, waiting until the outcome of today's Reserve Bank Board meeting. The board is unlikely to change the benchmark interest rates. It's sitting at four point three five percent, a twelve year high. But I suppose we're all wondering whether or not the Reserve Bank will actually soften its language and suggest that the next move in interest rates is down. It hasn't really done that yet. As a result, equity trading wasn't a lot going on. It was actually lower most of the day, Then it spiked right on four pm. To finish, This is the S and PA six two hundred to finish at eighty two hundred and forty three points. Consumer discretionary stocks did best, Energie companies did at worst. Not a great day for the miners'. Lower iron ore prices hit those guys for to Skew Metals Group ended the day down more than one percent. Goodman Group did well. It jumped nearly four percent. Best of the day Start Entertainment head of new Low Sonic Healthcare said it would buy a German lab group. A bad one was Platinum Asset Management, its share price for fifteen percent. That's after fund manager Regal Partners walked away from a takeover bid for it.
Michael and as quickly. International markets much going on well.
The price of Goal rose to twenty six to fifty US dollars an ounce after China's Central Bank added bullion to its reserves in November, something we don't talk much about. Central banks hold Goal. The Reserve Bank of Australia has a stack of gold and they use it almost as a security for the economy. Now central banks have been buying gold, although in China, this Chinese Central Bank has been a massive buyer of gold, but it just sort of stepped back from that. Now it's back in there and that's pushing up the price of gold. Osidala continues to sit under sixty four US sense. No good news there really, but Bitco well, it's heading back towards one hundred thousand US dollars a unit our gold.
Sean you saw it didn't you when back when you worked at the Reserve Bank you got to go and ow to look at some of our God, but most of ours is now held in London, isn't it from memory?
He said, I thought it was in Perth. Maybe it's in London. I don't know.
I feel like there was a story a couple of years ago, and this is really going into the archives that most of ours is now kind of stored in London. But I'm still to have been in your position kind of early in your days at the Reserve Bank, I mean eons ago.
Bars of gold sitting there Martin Place in Sydney. It was great.
That's amazing, amazing experience. You mentioned bitcoin, Sean. You've got an interview coming up after the show. This is a cracker, Mark Carnegie, who is a longtime investor, one of the most well known investors I think in Australia because he does not hold back on an opinion. He's now principal of m H. Carnegie and Co. And he's getting stuck into cryptos.
Well, yeah, he's really interesting on cryptos because he's not I suppose he's pro crypto, but he's come around to that view, particularly bitcoin and what's happened there. Part of it's about regulation in the sector, part of it's about Donald Trump. So we talk about that, We talk about why he thinks Donald Trump's tariff plans are going to cause all sorts of big problems. He also talks about where Australia, well, where there's an opportunity for Australia and why we're not taking advantage of it. As you say, Mark Carnegie, very well known, very outspoken also, and he certainly is in this interview.
Yeah, it's a great one. It's coming up after the show. Sean Woolworth's said it lost about one hundred and forty million dollars in food sales due to the seventeen day strike at its distribution centers in New South Wales and Victoria, and earnings will be down by about sixty million. But Cole's has the opposite problem with too many customers.
Apparently there's been a shift from shoppers towards Cole's because Woolies' shelves have been understocked. According to report in The Australian Corles has had to ask suppliers to ship more goods, put on more people to handle the extra volumes. Opened more checkouts deal with high demand. You could imagine woolies. They must hate that. I mean a story like that. Here they are ferociously trying to fill up their shelves and Carls are like, oh, so many people coming to the store.
Oh god, it's just oh, it's one of those complaints that you just hear it and you just hear the teeth just grinding, nashing together over and a wors going out.
Dare you yeah, yeah, Well the ware house staff are back at work, which is good news for bullies.
Sean Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi and the President of Nauru have signed a new treaty providing one hundred million dollars for the Nauru budget and forty million dollars to enhance policing, security, training and infrastructure over five years.
As part of the deal, the Commonwealth Bank will provide support from next year. Bennigo Bank is in Nuru now it's pulling out and come Off Bank will replace it. Anthony Albernizi said the treaty underscores the commitment to strengthening Pacific relations, making the region stronger and safer. Nuru's President, David Addiyang said the treaty will strengthen Neru's economy and address critical challenges such as a banking isn't nice to have a final local news story that leads it well into international news, Michael.
It does. It's quite seamless, really, isn't it. Turning to international news, President Joe Biden John said United States military forces have been conducting air strikes in Syria to keep the Islamic State Group from reasserting itself after the fall of President Bashah Alissad's government. This is just it's one of those things that one problem goes in terms of the Assad regime, and there's the potential now for a whole new problem to emerge.
Right, Yeah, beware what you wish for. Speaking at the White House, mister Biden celebrated Assad's fall as a fundamental act of justice and expressed hope that after decades of oppressive rule, the people of Syria could build a new, free society. But according to The New York Times, mister Biden warned that was also a moment of risk and uncertainty, and that his administration would strive in its final days to prevent terrorists from regaining traction. Meanwhile, the ousted mister Assad and his family have reportedly fled to Moscow, where the dictator's chief ally Russian President Vladimir Putin, has given them asylum.
Donald Trump, in his first post election TV interview, has said that he wants to see those who investigated his role in the January sixth, twenty twenty one riots at the White House jailed. So he's not talking about the people who were involved in NU riots. He's talking about the people who investigated him for his role in the January sixth riots.
Yes, so we're talking about politicians who led the inquiry. There seven of them, two of them were Republicans. It's very rare for a politician and a democracy to want his opponents jailed, at least saying it publicly. Very rare. Mister Trump also pushed his desire to deport all undocumented immigrants, including their family members, even if they're in the US legally. He was speaking on NBC's Meet the Press. He said, all members of that inquiry into those riots, which actually them inquire It still concluded that mister Trump actively inspired his supporters to commit violence in his name. Well, he thinks all those people should be incarcerated.
Finally, sean one last one. The global advertising industry will push past one trillion US dollars in revenue for the first time this year, with Google, Meta Byteedance, Amazon and ali Baba tip to earn more than fifty percent of the total revenue available.
That is huge just taken over. The World Media Agency Group M estimates that global advertising revenue will increase nearly ten percent this year, despite tough economic conditions in larger developed markets like the US and UK. The group forecasts that most of the growth will directly benefit the largest sellers of digital advertising in the US tech sector, rather than providers of other marketing services like ad agencies. According to a report in the Financial Times. Now the figures don't include the US political advertising market, which contribute about fifteen point one billion dollars. It just skews the numbers too much. Digital advertising is forecast to account for seventy three percent of total revenue by the end of next year, or eighty two percent when you include revenue from streaming and digital newspapers and magazines. Globally, total print advertising will be down about five percent this year and more again next year. Audio revenue will remain flat, while TV including both linear and streaming will grow slightly, but that's all in the back of streaming.
Okay. Up next Sean is the Fear and Greed Daily interview with investor Mark Carnegie. That is up in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also where you can sign up for the free weekly newsletter. It is coming out tomorrow, so get on board that right away and you get Sean's thoughts and opinions on a whole bunch of stories for the week. Thank you very much, Sean.
Thank you, Michael.
It's Tuesday, the tenth of December twenty twenty four. Make sure you following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.