Monday 9 December 2024
Bad news for anyone heading overseas with the Aussie dollar hitting an eight month low.
And more, including:
Macquarie boss Shemara Wikramanayake tops the list of highest paid Australian company CEOs, making close to $30 million.
And the world’s most visited church, Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris, reopens.
Plus Prime Minister Anthony Albanese declares the attack on a Melbourne synagogue terrorism, and how investors are trying to take advantage of the anti-woke movement.
Plus don’t miss the new episode of The Property Pendulum, brought to you by Domain and Fear & Greed. This week’s episode: seven steps to property nirvana. Get it from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
Today on Fear and Greed, Bad news for anyone heading overseas, with the Ossie dollar hitting an eight month low, Macquarie boss Jamara Wickromaniaca tops the list of highest paid Australian company CEOs, making close to thirty million dollars, and the world's most visited church, Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, reopens. Plus Prime Minister Anthony Alberizi declares the attack on a Melbourne synagogue terrorism and how investors are trying to take advantage of the anti woke movement. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Monday, the ninth of December twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Good morning, Michael.
So much to cover in that intro. I nearly forgot the name of the podcast.
Wow, that's the longest intro ever.
Oh my gosh. I got through it and then got to fear and greed and I stumbled there we go. The main story this morning, Shawn. The Ossie dollar has tumbled to under sixty four uscent, which is an eight month low, as economists say the Reserve Bank this week could indicate that it is thinking about cutting rates.
Not a great time to travel overseas, Michael, especially if you're heading to the US. The Aussie dollar fell under sixty four US since over the weekend. Hasn't been down there since May this year, and really it hasn't been at this level for a long long time on a sustained basis. It's under pressure against other currencies as well. It's buying sixty euros fifty pence. It's trading around these eight month lows across many of the currencies. A few reasons why the dollar is as weak as it is at the moment. Demand for Aussie dollars just isn't very strong. Much of the demand comes from countries or companies buying commodities, but with iron ore prices relatively low, Chinese demand down, then the demand for the Aussie dollar just isn't there. The week economic growth figures for the September quarter it released last week also has put pressure on the currency as well. These figures suggest the Reserve Bank might need to cut rates before the middle of next year. That pushes the Aussie down. A bunch of experts now reckon it could go further, particularly if Donald Trump imposes tariff's on imports. Come Off Bank, for example, thinks the Aussie dollar will head towards sixty US sins next year by about September next year. Bad news if you're going overseas, however, actually very good news for local exporters and the economy more generally, because it makes Australian goods cheaper overseas.
As Sean. You mentioned the Reserve Bank. The Board of the RBA meets today and tomorrow, but no good news on rates really expected, not yet.
The benchmark will stay at four point three five percent, twelve year high, but the Reserve Bank and the Board might just soften their language around it. Certainly in bond investors think that is going to happen. They now expect a rate cut by April next year. The Reserve Bank is faced with the dilemma of a slowing economy. It grew by just zero point eight percent to the end of September. That's the worst since the nineteen nineties recession outside the pandemic. But inflation remains too high, with underlying price rises at three and a half percent. Very tricky line path the Reserve Bank needs to follow. What's the appropriate something that they're trying to balance on.
Yeah, it feels like there is a perfect phrase right there, and it is escaping both of us right now, isn't it?
I treading a fine line, balancing the scales one of those things.
But look, when you look at the fact that there is, as you say, sticky inflation, there is a slowing economy, which all sounds like bad news, but it doesn't seem to be affecting equity markets that much.
No, that's actually pretty true that Trump enthusiasm remains. Lower rates eventually will help earnings. Of course, the equity market trades on what they people think earnings will be in six to twelve months time, so people are pretty confident. The S and PA is six two hundred closed down on Friday to eighty four hundred and twenty one points, means the benchmark was down a bit last week, but it's up eleven percent for the year. That is a pretty good effort. Futures training suggests the market could open higher today. That's after Wall Street set yet another record high over the weekend, fifty seventh for the year. Tech stocks led the way there. The big economic news was that the US economy added two hundred and twenty seven thousand jobs last month. Now, if you look at the trend, it basically shows the US labor markets slowing. That adds to the argument that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates further. And Bitcoin's worth mentioned pushed back above one hundred thousand US dollars a unit over the weekend.
Got a great interview coming up after the show for investors today, Sean It it's with Matt Waycher, who is the Chief Investment Officer Asia Pacific at morning Star.
It is a great chat. We talked to him about opportunities in different countries. Now Matt isn't saying don't invest in Australia, but he's just saying there are opportunities outside Australia that are worth having a look. At China, we talk about career, Europe, Latin America, places that we don't really cover that much on fear and greed. So it's fantastic talking about what he likes about some of those countries and in some cases the companies within those countries.
Yeah, it's a really good conversation. As I said, a must listen for investors. We still have a fair bit to cover before we get there. Sewan, we are talking spring selling season for property, some good news for woolie shoppers. Starbucks under fire for being too work. There is so much to get through. We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.
Sean.
Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi yesterday said the arson attack at a Melbourne synagogue late last week was an act of terrorism, but it is up to police to make the formal designation.
If they do designated terrorism, they can access additional federal government resources. Yesterday, the Prime Minister committed thirty two point five million dollars to Jewish community safety funding just to remind of what happened at four am Friday morning, and accelerant was used to set the Adas Israel synagogue ablaze in Melbourne. Yesterday, the Victorian Primative Center Alan didn't actually call it terrorism, preferring to not risk the police investigation. Opposition leader Peter Dutton labeled the attack a national disgrace and an act of terrorism. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nettan Yahoo directly blamed the extreme anti Israeli position of the Albanzi government for the Melbourne attack, and he said in a post on social media that the Victorian government and police need to lift their game.
Sean. The just completed spring selling season was less successful than a year ago, with overall sales volumes down and there's also been a rise in the time taken to sell a home.
Across the country. There was a big disparity. Sydney volumes were down fifteen percent compared to the five year average, Adelaide was up sixteen percent. Across the country volumes were down four percent. The overall clearance rate was lower this spring selling season, so the final weighted clearance which is different to the preiminary clear and straight that we talk about most weeks. So the final weighted clear and straight for the last four weeks was fifty seven point three percent. Last year was sixty two point seven percent. That's a big drop. According to core Logic bottom line, the winners were the buyers, not the sellers. Other notables during the spring selling season, the more affordable end of the market saw the highest price growth, while the upper price bracket and we're talking places in Sydney and Melbourne here went backwards. That was more or less confirmed. I think over the weekend we had auction results now we're talking about the priminary, clear and straight down one percentage point lowest of the year, Melbourne actually doing AKA sixty seven percent, Sydney easily the worst of the year at fifty eight percent.
I mentioned before Sean that there's a been of good news for Woolies and for Woolies shoppers. The dispute that source shelves left unstocked is over after the retailer struck a deal with the United Workers Union.
Fifteen hundred workers voted to return to work. The United Workers' Union said Woollies had agreed to above inflation pay rises and concessions about the operation of its employee performance management framework that seemed to be the main sticking point. The three distribution centers in Victoria one in New South Wales should all reopen within the next day or so, so shelves should be stocked again at Woolli's and also hurt Endeavor Group which includes Dan Murphy's and BWS.
Especially at Christmas shocking time.
Isn't it a dreadful time?
I mentioned this one at the top of the show. These figures are staggering, Sean. Macquarie Group Chief executive Shamara Wick Romaniaca has once again topped Australia's highest paid CEOs with a reported twenty nine point four million dollar pay packet this year, taking her total pay to almost three hundred million dollars during the was it six or so years that she's been leading the investment Bank?
Yeah? Incredible, isn't it?
Wow, it's not bad.
She's just one of four women on the list of the fifty highest paid CEOs compiled by the Australian Financial Review, along her Woodside Energy CEO Meg O'Neil, she ranked twentieth at seven point four or five million dollars zero CEO Sekunda Singh Cassidy she was thirty fourth at six point seveny three million dollars, Antostra CEO Vicky Brady forty fifth five point six four million dollars after Wick Rameni Yaka. The next three highest paid CEOs are at ASX listed but North American based companies, so they're remunerated in US or Canadian dollars, so certainly their remuneration looks very strong when it is transferred into Ozzie dollars. They're the bosses of James Hardy, ResMed and Newmont. At number five is Goodman Group's Greg Goodman. He earned nearly fifteen million dollars. He's forever at the top of those rankings. The departing chief executor of jewelry chain Leavisa guy called Victor Herrero ranked sixth almost fourteen million dollars reported pay, but he actually received forty one million dollars in realized or take home pay after the market value of his shares and options have vested a little bit in that. Basically, a lot of these CEOs they earn whatever they get every fortnight, and then they are earn incentives. Sometimes they are paid at the end of the year. Other times they might take two or three or four or five years to pay. And in the Levisa guy's case, that's what happened.
Levisa is such an interesting story, isn't it, because that is such a staggering amount of money, considering that the price point for the jewelry that is sold at Levisa is very, very very low, Like we're talking kind of five dollars or less than ten dollars for so much of it. It's like costume jewelry.
Yeah, and the company itself isn't actually worth a huge amount of money compared to a Macquarie Bank, or a Woodside or tell Straw with some of those sorts of companies. So it is a huge paypacket for that fella. Yeah. Indeed.
Now, Google's dominance in general search serve as in Australia continues despite regulatory and technological changes to search services and legal pressure by other governments.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's latest Digital Platform Services Inquiry report puts Google search market share at nearly ninety four percent. Its nearest rival, Being has just five percent of the Australian market. What I would say, Michael, I'm surprised it's only ninety four percent. I only ever use Google. I don't even think about being No.
If I ever get taken to being by default, I just quickly navigate away.
From the Google on over to Google.
Yeah.
The Competition watchdog says that Google continues to be the default search engine on the majority of browsers due to its commercial pre installation and default arrangements with third parties, and its ownership of the Chrome browser. It also notes that while the integration of generative AI into search is still evolving, Google's competitors are yet to gain meaningful market share from that company. The US Department of Justice last month called for a ban on deals for Google to be the default search engine on smartphones. It also wants a sale of Google's crime business. In the EU, mandatory choice screens have been introduced, as well as measures aiming to address self preferencing. We're nowhere near that yet here in Australia, but clearly the HBLEC is thinking about these sorts of things.
Sean Wes Farmers has reshuffled management, put in Kmart's chief financial officer in charge of the discount chain and elevating the current CEO, Ian Bailey to run the fast growing Aco global empire.
Alexandra Spasska, at forty one years of age, will become West Farmer's youngest divisional boss and run Camart. Mister Bailey will take over the fast growing Enco business. Anco what an amazing success story. Established as Kmart's own brand in twenty nineteen, less than five years ago, now sells more than one billion items from linen to fashion and toys. Last year, it's signed with Canadian department store Hudson's Bay and also did a deal with Mattel's Fisher Price brand to roll out wooden toys across the thousand Walnut stores in the US. Enco now contributes about eighty five percent of sales at kmart. Phenomenal.
Remember some of the stats. We've talked about Anko a bit because it is just it is staggering the fact that I think it was twenty percent of all clothes sold in Australia now carry the Anco label, and that because the Anko toys as well are so cheap, and there a lot of them are made with wood as well, so they're really kind of targeting a very good market there. That Anko is now the biggest selling toy brand in the country.
Phenomenal. It's the major reason why the discount retailer is now contributing more to the West Farmer's business overall. No West Farmers includes a bunch of businesses, Bunnings, office works, they've got industrial assets, but Enco has been the real success story over the past couple of years.
Yeah, amazing. Rare Earth Group i Luka's share price fell nine percent on Friday, so and after a blowout in the cost of its new refinery in Western Australia.
I LUKA in the federal government have agreed to share the cost of the blowouts, with the original cost of the one point two billion dollars be learning to one point eight billion dollars the other an Easy government has pledged a further four hundred million dollars towards the facility. It'll be the first rare earth refinery in the country. It's part of the government's plan to break China's dominance of processing of critical minerals. I LUCA will stump up another two hundred million dollars plus to cover its share of the rising costs You fall in a lucas share price pushed it to a four year low on Friday. Rareers are used to make things like industrial magnets used in cars, wind turbines, fighter jet stuff like that.
Turning to international news, the Syrian government appears to have fallen in a stunning end to the fifty year rule of the Asad family after a lightning rebel offensive.
The head of a Syrian opposition war monitor said press and Bashah Asad had left the country for an undisclosed location, fleeing ahead of insurgents who said they had entered Damascus after a quick advance across the country. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Jilali said the government was ready to extend its hand to the opposition and hand over its functions to a transitional government. According to Associated Press, State Television in Iran, mister Assad's main backer in the years of war in Syria, reported that the president had left the capital.
A new fund I mentioned this one before, aiming to punish woke companies, will make Starbucks its first target as politically motivated investors moved to capitalize on Donald Trump's election. You kind of knew this was going to happen, didn't you.
Oh, it's amazing story. So the actively managed fund, which Zoria Partners expects the launch early next year, will exclude keep out s and p five hundred companies that incorporate diversity, equity and inclusion considerations into their hiring processes. The fund unveiled its Starbucks plan late last week at Donald Trump's Mara Lago resort in Florida. According to The Financial Times, Zoria's founder James Fishback said, and I quote, Americans, whether they voted for President Trump or not, do not want to invest in companies running woke science experiments. End quote. Starbucks appeas rattled, it denied it had targets or quotas at any stage of the hiring process. The chain said that policies cited by Azoria, which include reaching racial and ethnic diversity of at least fifty percent among corporate employees, were aspirations, not quotas, and that they recently expired and were not reinstated. The new fund is the latest attempt by Trump supporting investors to push back against environmental, social and governance initiatives by big US companies, and of course, to profit from the coming change in government in Washington.
Finally, Sewan, the world's most visited church, the iconic Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, has reopened to the public overnight, having been restored to almost exactly its form before a devastating twenty nineteen fire. And the speed at which this is done, considering I went back and watched I was watching some videos of that fire, Sean, when we were talking about this story. It is huge, and in that initial kind of twenty four hours, the coverage was all about President Emmanuel Macron has committed to rebuilding the cathedral within five years, and here we are five years later.
Done, He's done it. It's been one of history's more remarkable restorations of a Gothic masterpiece, Even if the new parts of the cathedral means it just lost a touch of its old feeling. I suppose. In twenty nineteen Notre Dame spire crashed down in flames. The rebuild is faithful to the pre fire Notre Dame, according to media reports, and it follows a huge united effort by the French. Within hours of the fire, luxury goods building the Francois Pinot and and his family promised one hundred million euros for the reconstruction. They were quickly followed by LVMH founder and industry rival Bernard Arnaut, who offered two hundred million euros, and then the betten Court Myers, the airs behind the cosmetics giant Loreal, matched it. There was five hundred million euros just like that. In title, cash gifted to rebuild Notre Dame reached eight hundred and forty six million euros. In fact it was it was actually more than the seven hundred million needed, So the extra funds we used for work on the undamaged exterior and cathedral's immediate surroundings. But an incredible effort by the French to get this done.
Yeah, quite remarkable, all right, Sean. Up next is Fear and Greed The week Ahead, featuring our resident economist Stephen Coucoulis. Obviously a big week ahead for the economy with the Reserve Bank Board meeting today and tomorrow, and after that we've got the interview with Matt Waycher, Chief Investment Officer Asia Pacific at morning Star. They must listen for investors. They are both coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au. Thank you very much, Sean.
Thank you, Michael.
It is Monday, the ninth of December twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following the podcast most Important and join us online as well on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.