N-IF-L: How Do These 15 Potential Transactions Change the Fantasy Football Landscape? (Ep. 1235)

Published Feb 16, 2024, 12:52 AM

It may be the offseason, but the fantasy football world never stops spinning. In this episode, Ryan Wormeli, Andrew Erickson, and Derek Brown imagine 15 hypothetical realistic offseason transactions and break down the fantasy football implications of each one. From Russell Wilson throwing passes in a much more loaded offense to Derrick Henry joining forces with one of the great rushing quarterbacks, we share our insight on how much these players' values would change in this alternate NFL reality! 

Timestamps:

Show Overview - 0:02:29
Russell Wilson to ___? - 0:04:07
Justin Fields to ___? - 0:08:11
DraftKings Sportsbook - 0:16:10
Mike Evans to ___? - 0:17:29
Odell Beckham Jr. to ___? - 0:25:16
Michael Pittman Jr. to ___? - 0:28:55
Marquise Brown to ___? - 0:32:00
Gametime - 0:35:54
Calvin Ridley to ___? - 0:37:52
Gabe Davis to ___? - 0:40:51
Derrick Henry to ___? - 0:44:14
Discount Tire - 0:49:03
Saquon Barkley to ___? - 0:49:56
Josh Jacobs to ___? - 0:53:45
Tony Pollard to ___? - 0:57:29
Austin Ekeler to ___? - 1:00:58
Use our Best Ball Draft Kit at fantasypros.com/bestball - 1:04:16
Which of these scenarios is more compelling? - 1:04:32

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Hello, everybody. Welcome into another episode of the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I am Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown. Fellas, it is February. It is the week after the Super Bowl. We are officially into the off season. How are we feeling, Debro?

Oh maybe I'm feeling great, man.

We got new shows popping off, we got Dynasty, we got draft content popping off. We're gonna talk about all these guys where they can land and stuff I do. There is no off season, like we're talking about. It's the off sea. There is no off season. Come on, let's get this out of here.

There absolutely is no offseason. Debro just mentioned Dynasty. He and Thor of course have a new NFL Draft podcast that is over on our Dynasty feet, So everybody should definitely check that out for the next few months here heading into April. Erickson, how are you feeling here now that we're like officially into the off season.

I'm ready for it. You know, I think that NFL free agency is really fun to attack because you can tie in all these narratives about this player knows guy in this coach, because essentially these guys are just looking for jobs, and if you ask anybody about their job, where they got it, how do they get their job, It's because well, I knew this guy. I knew this guy. That's why I have my job here. I knew Joe Piece of Pa That's why I'm here Fantasy.

That's why I have my job. I knew Andrew Rickson.

So again, it's just like we looking at it as these guys they're superstars, but at the end of the day, it's their job. So that's how you can kind of connect the dots. And I hope we're gonna be able to do some dot connecting with some of these players and teams as we head into the off season.

I don't know anybody who loves connecting dots more than you do. When it comes to this guy played under this coordinator in this other franchise, so they're going to be a trade target. You are, you are the goat of finding this connection.

I have a question on that entire thought process ericson you ever played Connect four?

Big fan of that?

No, yes, no, yeah, I dabble.

Ye, thank them.

We went in high school. I was in a philosophy class and our big like kind of midterm grade because we didn't really like they weren't really relevant, these like progress reports. We had a class wide connect for tournament, and every round you got to you got another letter grade up on your like interim progress report. And I ended up winning. And the only way to get an A on that progress report was to beat the teacher, and I did beat them. So was that not gonna connect second grade?

Or was this a college course? This was?

This was twelfth grade? This is this is senior high school? It was. It was super fun, and you know that's a nour education system is in a good spot. Let's let's jump into this show.

Here.

We are doing n if L, not NFL n if L. We are going to throw out some compelling scenarios that we see happening with free agents, a couple of trades mixed in there as well, just general potential off season scenarios, and then we're going to react if it plays out this way. What do we think the fantasy ramifications are. So we're gonna do, like I said, a couple of trades, mostly free agents. It's not necessarily predictions. We've already done a free agency predictions show. These are scenarios that we think are compelling, and it's really an excuse to talk about, you know, what this landing spot would mean for a player at disposition, what a team change would mean for you know, a particular high profile player, stuff like that. Is that a fair description, you think?

Ericson, Yeah, I would say so. Again, a lot of stuff is going to change, changes in the betting markets, so it would be interesting to see how these teams play out their offseasons. But yeah, we gotta try to assume that something's going to happen. We got to talk about it.

Yep. This is this is what offseason topics look like. And again we recognize that many of these players will end up re signing with their teams or going somewhere else that we didn't predict. This is more just a fun exercise while analyzing the various team situations. Are you ready, debro Oh?

I'm I was born ready, baby, I mean I'm ready like you were in that Connect four tournament.

Let's go oh oh, I was very ready for that. Just to give everybody a note, if they want to look at our early twenty twenty four Consentus rankings, Those and the tiers can be found at fantasypros dot com slash rankings, so obviously very subject to change between now and next season. But you know, if we reference roughly where a guy is ranked or where he might be ranked in some of these scenarios, you can check out those rankings there again, fantasypros dot Com slash rankings. Let's start with the quarterbacks most supportant players on the field and here, so as we did some of the free agent quarterbacks earlier this week, we wanted to talk about some of these trade candidates. I guess the first one is possibly cut candidate as well. You know, in some scenario, Russell Wilson might not be with the Denver Broncos, so we have him going to the Falcons as a team that is obviously kind of ready to win now they have a new coach in place, they just need the quarterback ericson. I'll start with you, what would you make of Russell Wilson to the Falcons.

I think it'd be an interesting fit for him teaming up with Zach Robinson, who's come in as the new offensive coordinator. Look Zach Robinson, he stems from the Sean McVay tree, and that's where Russell Wilson has kind of had his most success. You know, he had success with Shane Waldron in some of his later years in Seattle before kind of things fall off the cliff with some injuries at the end of his Seattle tenure, and then obviously with Denver the last two years has not worked out for him. So yeah, I think it'd be a breath of fresh air. I think anywhere that Wilson goes where there's a more Shanahan McVeigh type of scheme, I think works better for him, especially because his mobility is continuing to decrease every single year. He's not making those offscar plays that was so vintage Russ and kind of made him what he was at his peak. That's not no longer the case. So for me, I think it's definitely an upgrade for those pass catches for what we saw last year and probably the year before. Wilson's a much better thrower than Desien Ritter, Marcus Mariota, those types of players, So yeah, I think it'd be an overall boost for the offense overall.

Deepro is Atlanta the most compelling spot for a quarterback to land in terms of fantasy just given that they have again not only the new coaching staff, an offensive coordinator from the McVeigh tree, but Drake London and Bjeon Robinson and Kyle Pitts. I mean, this is a very enticing landing spot for any quarterback to go.

I think the two landing spots we're going to cover here with the quarterbacks that we're going to talk about are the two landing spots that I'll want to see guys go to. Those are the two most compelling. And when you want to talk about like the overall system, the skilled players involved and stuff, and a lot of the similar thoughts with Ericson, I'm just gonna echo here. With Robinson coming over, it's definitely a push up as well, as you know, with Arthur Smith leaving, I think we're gonna at least see a neutral passing rate somewhere around league average. The Rams last year we're seventeenth Atlanta, because everybody probably already knows this, they were bottom five, they were thirty first in neutral passing rates. So if we're talking about the quarterback up grade, plus the scheme changes its wheels up for everybody, Russ included, Drake London is the guy that I specifically want to highlight here because I've been on record and I'm still gonna say it here. If you give Drake London aw like just league average quarterback play, which Desmond Ritter has never come close to that, neither is Marcus Mario.

I'm sorry, but it's true.

And Taylor Heineke same thing, below average quarterback play all the way through. If you give him league average quarterback play. If you give the Atlanta Falcons at least league average neutral passing rate, Drake London's catching ninety five to one hundred balls this year, It's gonna freaking happen. He is that type of player. He's in Alpha. He's proved it time and time again, both with deeper metrics. I know the counting stats haven't been there, but again we're talking about the passing volume hasn't been there and the quarterback play has been terrible. So adding Russell Wilson to this offense, I will I will already be ranking Drake London based off of we think that a quarterback up rate is coming. If it were to be Russell Wilson, my rank on Drake London will be aggressive this year.

Ericson quickly if Russell Wilson ends up in Atlanta. What do you think about betting on the Falcons to win the South next year?

To win the South last year?

So running back run back Betty doubling down, Yeah, because I mean, I'm not gonna bet on the Buccaneers.

I'm not gonna bet on the Saints. So yeah, we did probably come down between the Falcons and potentially the Panthers, who will probably get the best odds on with Carolinas because again that worked this past year. You just wrote on the team that has the longest odde and that was tam Bay Buccaneers and they won the weakest division. So from value perspective, yeah, probably the Falcons and the Panthers would be the two teams I'd be looking at, Debro.

I'll let you kind of make the pitch here for the other quarterback. We're talking about a guy that, based on all the evidence, seems extremely likely to be traded. It's justin fields. You are the fields guy to make the pitch for why you want him to end up in our destination.

So as much shade as I've given Arthur Smith as a head coach in Atlanta.

We could be kind of rewind like there.

Are receipts out there where I've given Arthur Smith a lot of love as an offensive coordinator.

He's done a lot of smart things.

It's just can he get out of his own way, but a lot of the parts and pieces about how Arthur Smith designs an offense, there's a lot of good things there, especially if you look at play action and looking at play action rates last year Desmond Ritter was third and play action dropback rate you look at field seventeenth. More play action for a passing attack is never a bad thing as well as you marry this with just fields. We know the mobility is there, and I've been higher on the passing acumen than a lot of people because if you look at different parts and pieces of when he's played extremely well and I'm not a fan of lou Getzy, but putting him into a competent system, adding more play action for a quarterback that was fifteenth in yards per attempt difference last year on play action dropbacks versus non play action dropbacks, it's going to be a perfect hand and glove fit for the type of scheme that Arthur Smith wants to run. With all the play action and plus what we've already seen him do in elevating. No, he didn't elevate Desmond Ritter as a quarterback, but just because unfortunately, I think that the level of quarterback play you can only have it. It's elevated so much between him and Heinecke and Mariota, but we've seen him elevate quarterback play with Ryan Tannehill. So as much as I have been really hard on Arthur Smith as a head coach, I like a lot of the things that he does as an offensive coordinator. We might still be pulling our hair out of oh is it a is Pat frim It's going to score touchdowns this week? Or oh, dear Lord, here come Darnell Washington's seven touchdowns incoming because of the John new Smith Corlarry But for Justin Fields, it'd be great stuff man Like right now in my ranks, right now, not knowing his future landing spot, I have Justin Fields as my QB six And people might say that's that's aggressive, But how he's done this over multiple seasons where we've seen top three, top like number one quarterback overall upside in various weeks. Ranking him as a mid range QB one is not aggressive.

Ericson what do you think about that ranking for Fields while we still don't know his landing spot, and subsequently, where do you think you'd be ranking him if he does end up in Pittsburgh.

I think I have him higher than debro does. I think I have him on back five four. It's just like comes down to the rushing and the way that Justin Fields wins is with his legs. Like any team that trades for him is going to use his legs. They'd be stupid not to, like, why would he trade for this guy when we know his best weapon his legs? And when you trade for him, you don't necessarily need to invest a long term contract in him, so you're not necessarily worried about, oh, we have to send this guy to a long term deal and now we have to protect him. We can't have him run, et cetera. When it's like, look, Josh Allen signed a long term contract and he's still running because it makes him good. So embrace that the new team. I think in this case, the Steelers would definite embrace. They already talked about, yeah, we want to run the football, Okay, so how do you take the ball out of the air? You get a Bob a quarterback and now you got justin fields in there. So look, I think that deebro was accurate about talking about Arthur Smith. You have to remove what he did as a head coach and you have to isolate what he's done as an officeive coordinator, which is different because he doesn't have to deal with the oh, why is he bijon playing enough? It's like that's not my job, Like I have to run. I'm calling the plays on offense, so it's up to Mike tom And to decide who's playing when, Like that's his call, so ask the head coach. So it's like one last thing that Smith has to worry about. He can just focus on the offense. We saw him do it in Tennessee with a run heavy offense and he unlocked Bryan Tannehill's ceiling as an uber efficient passer Ran Tannell in twenty nine, team was second and fantasy points per drop back, and even in twenty twenty two with Marcus Mariota fifth and fantasy points per dropbacks. We've already seen Arthur Smith have a very mobile, driven quarterback in Mariota in multiple stints be productive and efficient. So again I'm not concerned about the passing volume for Pittsburgh. It's probably not going to be a ton, but Field is going to be able to be efficient. He has good weapons, He's going to use his legs. So last year Fields was fifth and fantasy points for dropback in an offense that we had a lot of question marks about. So yeah, I would be confident ranking him as a top five fantasy quarterback. And there's no way, at least in my opinion, that you're going to have to draft him as a top five fantasy quarterback because of the rhetoric, the narrative around Fields. So we can't throw out it's like, well, we played fantasy football, so it's a different game. You have to acknowledge that that it matters so much of his rushing. After Week four he was averaging twenty two fantasy points per game. So again, he's gonna have a couple of these dudes where was like, for some reason he just doesn't run in a certain game. But once you get those out of the way and he's running, he's going to be put up fantasy points.

Deepro do you just like wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat having nightmare about him going to the Raiders and being reunited with Luke Getzy.

Oh, that's one of the things that were I think that there's no chance that that happens. I mean, looking at Luke Getsy in that type of marriage, you have to believe as soon as Luke Getzy got got in the building and he's like, Okay.

We're not trading for feet.

From the suit.

Yes, stay exactly, I disagree.

Oh you think there's gonna be a reuniting Yeah. No.

And again I was, you know before I kind of dug into it a little bit more. It's kind of looking at Fields in his potential landing spots. You know, I kind of thought the same thing. It's like, oh, he must hate Getsy. But like I was reading an article from for the week eighteen game, and Getsy was glowingly talking about how he believes in justin Fields like and that's something that I think is really important for a quarterback like Fields, who he needs the offensive coaching staff to buy into him, like I need you to believe in me. Like clearly they obviously had growing pains, but again, it's still a young quarterback. It's a guy that has not been offensive corner for that long. So yeah, I know we're talking about him landing to the Steelers here and they're the favorites, But really I would not be surprised if he does go to the Raiders because Luke Getsy, at least from what I was reading, believes in Justin Fields and that's something that should not be undersold, that this offensive play caller believes in me as a quarterback and that I can take a development and take another step. And it's also a system he knows, at least we saw. Look, if it wasn't for that injury Justin Fields had with his thumb, this season could have played out way different, Like he could have progressed much sooner and much faster. But then there was like a delay in the middle of the game of the season where he was out for a month without a thumb injury a handager, so he couldn't. It's so I think the season could have play out differently for Justin Fields as a passer. And again, despite all the downturn, he still did progress as a passer. He was better this past year than the year before, So I wouldn't rule it again, not saying you guys are wrong, but I initially thought the same thing, was like, oh, there's no way's going to the Raiders, but after Dug Moore into it, it was like, no, I wouldn't have r.

So I also do kind of think though that like, sometimes it's just time for a change, and I just feel like we've seen what this looks like, and maybe it's through no one's specific's fault of their own, but I just kind of feel like it's best for everybody to have kind of a clean slate for both guys, right, Debro, Yeah.

I mean I think a clean slate is what you're looking for. But I do want to highlight this because I don't think we've touched on this enough here. Regardless of wherever he goes, and let's throw the Raiders into this mix. If he goes with the Raiders, he goes to the Steelers, can we say that confidently that those are both the best surrounding cast of skilled players he's ever played with. I mean, you want to talk about Adams Myers and Michael Mayer whoever?

They have multiple weapons?

Yes, nobody, No, wait, Cook can do some things, but I think he's not a guy that.

Anybody like. We gave him one guy. We don't think.

There's a team he could go to that wouldn't be an improvement over what he's had. I mean, would be an improvement in Pittsburgh, Vegas. I don't think there is a team that is reasonably looking for a quarterback that wouldn't.

Be interreed would.

Quarterbacks, That's what I mean. The Patriots adding Marvin Harrison Junior. Maybe if they're trading for fields Ohio State Baby, we'll see. Get in on the action this season. With DraftKings Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NBA, new customers who deposit five dollars or more can get a no sweat bet up to one thousand dollars back in a bonus bet. The big game tonight is Warriors and Jazz going head to ahead in Utah. The Jazz are getting a point and a half. The total is said at two thirty nine and a half on DraftKings. However, you plan to bet that one down to the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use Code Fantasy Pros. New customers can get a no sweat bet up to one thousand dollars if your first bet loses. Only on Draftking sports Book with Code Fantasy pros. The Crown is.

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God let's move to the wide receivers here. We'll start with Mike Evans to the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a connection that we are not the only ones to think about that possibility, given what we've seen from the receivers in Kansas City this season. Of course, it didn't matter with them winning the Super Bowl, but obviously they're going to look to improve that position here in the off season. And Mike Evans, future Hall of Famer, just consistently excellent every single year in Tampa Bay. Debra, I'll start with you, how big would this be for Mike Evans if you landed up in Kansas City this offseason.

I would make sure that I above consensus, like firmly, like you could see top five upside from Mike Evans. And now that gets insane. I mean, we just saw what he did the past season with Baker Mayfield. Now you're gonna marry him. And I'll throw this out here. If you look at Patrick Mahomes's deep ball stats through last year, he was pretty bad as a deep ball passer. Regardless of whatever you look at like how to act your throw rates, cpoe, whatever you want to pull up, he was not a good And I understand that like some contexts as far as the downfill weapons for Mahomes, but the deeper metrics that that point to it, he was not a good deep ball passer.

But if you go back to the two seasons.

Prior to that, ninth and twelfth and Cpoe on targets twenty or more yards down the field. So that's where Mike Evans we know, makes his money and as well as giving Patrick Mahomes another legitimate red zone threat, because right now you got Travis Kelcey and then you got Patrick Mahomes pulling a rabbit out of his hat, like every single time they get inside the twenty. Uh No, when they get inside the twenty, if they get Mike Evans, it's either Kelsey or it's Mike.

Evans times baby.

And we could see a season out of Mike Evans where he scores twelve to fifteen touchdowns and I don't think that's insane because he showed no fall off last year. He showed that he has plenty left in the tank and had I had concerns going into not only was the Mayfield stuff, but going into last season some of his deeper metrics. But it looks like from what we saw between Baker Mayfield and the last season of Tom Brady, some of those numbers might have been tied more to Tom Brady and not any kind of fallof from Mike Evans.

So wheels up for me.

Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the red zone stuff ericson. I want to pitch this to you, but do you think that adding Mike Evans would hurt Travis Kelsey's I guess it's sort of flawed analysis because they're obviously they're stylistically different, but they're both big bodied and they're both good in the red zone. So if Mike Evans is getting thirteen touchdowns, which is what he had last year, he has ninety four touchdowns in his career, Like, he is a guy that is very well used in the red zone, and I assume would be in Kansas City as well. So does that kind of knock Kelsey? Does it knock Pachecko? Maybe not getting as many rushing touchdowns? You know? How does this sort of play out for the rest of the Chiefs that are already there?

Yeah, I think that you're accurate with that. I mean, it's gonna be all the fantasy points are going to go to Patch Mahomes's arm and not the running backs and not Travis kelcey, because that's how Travis Kelsey has been so dominant. His red zone role has been elite at tight end. At the tight end position, again, even in a down year, he still had like eight touchdowns because he's the number one red zone target. That's not gonna be the case of Mike Evans is a Chief And it's funny. I just kind of like this kind of just popped in my head. But this whole season for the Chiefs has really reminded me a lot of the two thousand and six Patriots. Now that team didn't win the Super Bowl, but it was a team that was very undermanned, made all the way to the AFC Championship game, should not have made it there. But then they realized, hey, we did not give Brady enough weapons, Like we should not have made it this far, and the Chiefs are lucky they won the Super Bowl. Like again, this team was down and out, but every other team just laid an egg when they got the chance to try and play the Chiefs, like it just didn't work out. Like the chief should not have won the Super Bowl this year based on the offensive personnel. Obviously their defense was elite. They have Mahomes, but they this was a year they shouldn't have expected to win, but they did so. I think that they are going to be aggressively aggressively buying receivers, whether it's in the draft, or three free agency and Mike Evans, to me, this reminds me of when the Patriots traded for Randy Moss, Like they were like, no, we're sick of this. We need to go get our guy, the best wide receiver we can find. And Randy Moss was thirty years old, and then what did you do? Gwent out caught twenty three touchdowns in two thousand and seven. So the people talking about three peats, I'm looking at the Chiefs like, hey, why can't they go undefeated? Like that should be what they're striving to do, go an undefeated season when they can repeat, And how do you do that? You add Mike Evans And again maybe we're not tacking bold predictions here, but it kind of popped in my head like Mike Evans has kind of looked at as you know, Hall of very very good. I think because of you mentioned his consistency, But how many times if we looked at Evans like, oh, he was the best wide receiver in the NFL this season. I think with Patrick Mahomes, he can cement himself in that conversation with a season where he scores twenty twenty two to twenty three touchdowns because he can do that attached to a guy like Mahomes, I.

Think he's already agree.

You know what I'm saying, But like, when, what's what have you ever looked at Mike Evans like he's the best wide receiver in the NFL?

Right? No, no, no, you're right that. I don't know that he's ever been the best.

But I don't think he's been number one.

But can we say, like he's had multiple seasons and that's in in the top eight to ten.

I think in a sport like football two ten, in a sport like football two durability, you don't think he is is valuable. I mean he has a thousand yards every year?

Right, how many times he's gone to our fifteen? No, ask how many times he's been the best receiver in the NFL.

I didn't say that. How many times?

How many times would you have said he was at least top eight to ten? Are we to say none?

But I want, I want that's hall of fame. It's all of I'm not I'm not arguing, yeah, he's gonna get in the Hall of Fame, but I'm saying, like he doesn't have that marquee season where he's looked at as the best wide receiver in the NFL, and he can do that with Momes.

That's all fifteen yards and twenty eighteen I mean, I mean are arguably this past season if you look at receptions and yardage and touchdowns all kind of combined, last season might have been his like second best year maybe, I mean twenty sixteen. And was he top five in I don't. I don't think so. I don't have the scoring leaders but in front of me, But.

I don't disagree with that. I don't disagree with them.

Yeah, definitely not top five real life.

I'm not dissing Mike Evins. Were just saying like he hasn't had a guy like Mahomes.

No, that's fair, that's true.

That's fair.

The one thing I do want to back before we keep rolling here, though, is I do think that it would help Travis Kelcey because you talked about the down year last year, Kelsey only had five receiving touchdowns, man like, so basically was they got into the red zone, it was like, oh, we just stopped Travis Kelcey. So Mahome's gonna have to do something like magical or they're gonna have to run the ball with the checkos. So I think if you add Mike Evans to this equation, you're giving the defense into the problem to have to solve for So, I think Kelsey's to Stown number would actually come.

Back up quickly, just because I have his stats up and I think it's fun. How many rushing attempts do you think Mike Evans has in his career?

De bro good lord? Uh ten?

He's played one hundred and fifty four games. You think he has ten rushing attempts?

What do you think? I don't think it's garrickson one.

He has ten rushing yards on one attempts. Run one. I didn't know that tires just price.

Is right of me, man. He was like, okay, now this zero bid. He just.

For the record, I do think Mike Evans is a Hall of Famer, But I'm just just saying like he doesn't have in my opinion that I don't.

Think you're wrong about him never having been the best receiver in football. I I just don't think it matters.

I think I want to mention that and double down on the point that you made about Randy Moss. That type of season would be firmly in play for Mike Evans. And I know it sounds like we're getting out over her skis, but like tell me why, like like that type of season and that punctuation on his career, Ledger.

I would never play like the seven Rady Moss season on anybody, but I think he could have his career best season for sure.

The guys that have done the consistency when it comes one thousand receiving yards, like the record that Evans broke, I'm pretty sure was Randy Moss's or Jerry Rice's.

So yeah, yeah, let's move on to another receiver, a guy who is clearly uh you know, in the back nine of his career, well into the back nine. That's Odell Beckham Junior, and we're putting one of the New York Jets. He's going back to New York. Obviously this would be you know, teaming up with Aaron Rodgers, and O'Dell wasn't that impactful last year. So really this is kind of an excuse to talk about what do would mean for the Jets to add another piece to that passing attack Erickson, What do you think I.

Think it'd be a good depth piece. I mean, they's got no production from anyone else on the field except for Garrett Wilson and from Breese Hall. So again, Aaron Rodgers brought in all of his retread guys and they all did nothing. So it's like, hey, Aaron, like, we know that you love it. What Alan was hard, but we really need to get some that can actually be more dynamic. And I think that Beckham, Yeah, I think that even though he did not deliver the contract expectations that the Ravens gave him, he still flashed like a lot of big plays. He had a top three average apt of the target. He was a brilliant more of a deep threat for the Ravens. He was not really used as more as a possion receiver, even though I think that's more of his game in my opinion. So I think that the Jets could probably use him in it a little different way, kind of as a complimentary piece to Garrett Wilson again as another red zone weapon, like he's good in the red zone where he can be more crafty with his route running. And obviously the Jets that was their biggest issue last year was they could not score any touchdowns. And now that comes back to the quarterback play. But having another weapon like OBJ in New York. I think it'd be a lot of fun. And if you look at Obej's metrics from last year, he wasn't horrible, like from a per efficiency kind of standpoint top thirty and pff for grade. Again, he was generating a lot of big plays and he wasn't running a lot of routes, like a lot of the times he was playing under fifty percent of the snap. So again, whether that's because he's a veteran he can't run all the routes, not so sure, but I think in New York he could be at least I'm not serviceable.

Yeah.

I was really surprised that we didn't see him do more in December and January, because earlier in the year it's like very clear, Okay, they're like saving him, they want him to be healthy, you know, later in the season. And then that like late November early December, he had a couple of games in a row where it was like, okay, like he's not back, but he is like now being used in a way that makes me really fantasy viable. And then it just kind of stopped and there wasn't, as far as I saw, any sort of like severe injury that was like long term limiting. He was just kind of like older, I guess. And I don't want to call him washed up or anything, because the dude is super talented, but I was surprised we didn't get more Debro later in the season.

Oh same.

I mean, if anybody read the primers for the playoffs, I just kept talking about OBJ and how I thought he was, you know, because the coverage matchups and stuff, and it just never came to fruition. But I would honestly love this spot for OBJ if he lands with the Jets, and really, we're gonna go back. We're in the way back machine. We're going to go back to yesteryear. OBJ would become James Jones circa twenty twelve. That season, if you go pull back, go get hop back on the way back machine, and you remember James Jones as being Aaron Rodgers' best friend. He only had seven hundred and eighty four receiving yards in that season, but he scored fourteen freaking touchdowns.

And and here's the thing, we've already seen OBJ do this before. If we remember that stretch run after he arrived to the Rams, these seven games he played at to close the regular season. There, he scored five freaking touchdowns while only averaging forty one receiving yards. He was on a pace for seven hundred receiving yards if he didn't okay, the full season pace for OBJ with the Rams that year would have been six hundred and ninety seven receiving yards and twelve tuddies. So he's right there for the grabbing baby like OBJ becomes James Jones, Aaron Rodgers' best friend.

I hope that doesn' happen because I don't want him to take away too many touchdowns from what I'm hoping will be an amazing Garrett Wilson season next year. But we'll see. Let's go to more of an up and coming wide receiver, and that's Michael Pittman. I think it's a pretty decent chance he stays with the Colts, but for the sake of this exercise, we want to put him somewhere else and think about what that would look like. And we have Arizona now. They're obviously considered maybe the favorites to go after Marvin Harrison Junior in the draft, but they clearly could use another big time wide receiver for Kyler Murray. So deepra, I'll start with you here, Michael Pittman Junior to Arizona. What would that mean to you?

I mean, look, in this scenario, you can go one of two ways. Because Pittman arriving there. You could say, okay, now Arizona can go other directions in the draft. Maybe they can address defense, maybe they trade down all this different stuff. Let's have some fun here, man. Let's give Kyler Murray, Michael Pittman and Marvin Harrison Junior and Trey McBride and James Connors in the backfield. Arizona's gonna be top ten and scoring. Kyler's gonna crush all the things. Bells and whistles are going off, and then Arizona go address your defense in every draft for the next three years after that. That's what I want to see happen. And if that happens, Michael Pittman, we would be talking about his stock maybe goes down, considering what we've seen in the last two years, him being the unquestioned one and now being dropped into an offense where he's got a fight for targets on a weekly basis with two pretty elite options, and I know, we're giving a lot of praise to Marvin Harrison Junior, who's never even played a snap in the NFL, But come on.

It's Marvin Harrison Junior leader options.

Exactly, and Marquise Brown being gone as a free agent, You're going to have a consolidated passing attackle But Kyler Murray, if they were to ramp up the pass passing rate, he could support all those weapons. So Michael Pittman would probably become of value this year in drafts.

Man ericson where would you be ranking Kyler Murray if they really did add both Pittman and Marvin Harrison Junior on top of the Tray McBride breakout from last year.

Pretty high, a lot higher than I think that he is in consensus and kind of how he viewed when I did my early kind of quarterback rankings. You know, Kyler Murray was someone I like called out is like, yeah, I'm gonna be in on this guy because he was productive. Like the first game he came back like like okay, like he's probably gonna be slow, he's not gonna he's like immediately running around. I'm like, well, he's healthy, he's fine, he's good. To go, so you're layering on Okay, he actually has weapons, and he's not playing in this like gimmicky air Ray Cliff Kingsbury offense, and he is running, so all those three things, like this is a elite fantasy quarterback. He's had season where he's scored over twenty two fantasy points per game, Like we harp on or we get stuck on these pocket passers that can never cress that twenty point per game average, and it's like you're never gonna get anywhere with these guys. They're all the same. If you're not going over twenty points, then just get a waiver wire guy like you can find whoever is the cheapest of those options. But once you crest over that twenty point threshold, now you're cooking with gas and that's gonna be Kyler Murray just given if he adds weapons in free agency through the draft. I mean, right now is the time to buy a low in Kyler Murray in any format, whether it's Dynasty, Bestball, whatever you're doing, like he's undervalue because it's just gonna get better for him.

Speaking of the Cardinals, we have Marquise Brown leaving and going to Denver, Ericson. I'll start with you here, what would you mean with that set up for him?

Not thrilled about it. I don't really know what to think of Marquise Brown because you know, he was set up really well last year. Like again, obviously he didn't have Marky Or he didn't have Kyler Murray to start the year. But Kylin Murray came back and Marcus Brown disappeared like he was worse when Kyler Murray came back, and then he got hurt. He's been hurt the last two seasons. So what are we looking at, Like, what's his body of work? He's been a vertical speed receiver that stretches the field, but has been inconsistent, never really been a true number one, and now he's kind of it's kind of he's going to like a Denver Broncos team that has a bunch of other receivers that we have question marks about too. It was like, Oh, Jerry, dude, he's ever gonna do anything. He's ever gonna live up to the Alabama pedigree. And then quorlt Sun if he got to all the touchdowns again, well then Marcus Brown, You're out of luck. So again, the fact that he had such a high opportunity last year twelve hundred air yards, twenty percent target chair, nearly a forty percent area yard share, was top twenty and weighted opportunity, and he was horrible. I feel like he got all the opportunity in the world last yeargain the quarterback play wasn't great, but even when Conner Murray came back, like, he was still bad. So I think that he's probably going to be discounted enough this year where wherever team he goes to, specifically in this case, Denver, he's probably just worth taking a flyer on because of how his entire body work. Like he's not like I'm going to be a wide receiver five, but that's probably where he's going to be ranked. And like when I look at my rankings, like that's where he is, Like he's like in the forties fifties, because I can't rank him super high just based in the last two years that we've seen from him.

Do you ever, what do you think about Hollywood Brown potentially to Denver?

So I'll play this scenario plays out a little bit differently in my mind's eye than what Ericson kind of laid out.

I think we have to talk about.

First of all, this would be the coffin nail for Marvin Mims, who didn't show everything we wanted to see in his rookie season. You add a guy like Marquise Brown, and this is assuming that in this scenario they would keep Corland Sutton, because the other side of this is Coortland Sutton is not a free agent until twenty twenty six, but they could cut him right now and save roughly ten mil against the cap.

So in this scenario, I think.

You would be looking at and let's play it out this way, if they were to cut Cortland Sutton and then they roll with a trio of Marvin Mems, Marquise Brown and Jerry Judy. Now, if they kept Sutton, again, coffin nail for Marvin Mims, but cutting Sutton, I would probably be higher on Mark east Brown than maybe some other people because we've seen Jerry Judy as not that guy. Marvin Mims had a disappointing rookie season. We've also seen Sean Payton, and I think that Denver is going to walk into the walk into twenty twenty four with a different quarterback obviously than Russell Wilson.

They're not starting Jared Stidham. Now, whether they.

Overpay for Kirk Cousins or they go out and trade for a guy, they move up and try to draft a guy. I think the whole benching of Russell Wilson was to improve their NFL draft spot in the first round, to get them within striking distance for a quarterback.

Now that didn't work.

Out exactly as planned, but are they still high enough to where it's possible to go go up the board a little bit and go get a quarterback Because we know that Peyton is going to be like, look, I want my quarterback. I need a quarterback. So I think that gets addressed. And assuming they let go a Sutton, Marky's Brown would be the number one wide receiver there. And we've seen how Sean Payton used Brandon Cooks in a lot of different ways, whether it was on screens, whether it was emotion got him loose as a guy that yes, Brandon Cooks is better than Marku's Brown, but even as the dollar store version of Brandon Cooks. I still think what Marky's Brown is going to fall probably like a wide receiver four or five like Grickson's talking about. But in this scenario, I probably would come in higher on him than consensus.

Even with bow Nexos his future quarterback.

No, no, never mind, I take it all back.

I take it all back.

Just fade the entire offense outside of Julia McLoughlin. I take it all back. Never mind, I'm out.

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That they could be good depending on what quarterback ends up in Chicago. I mean you're looking at again fortifying this situation for a young quarterback. Now you're talking about you'd have Dj Moore, Cole Comet, and Calvin Ridley as you're starting trio of pass catchers. Because Darnel Mooney is a free agent. Don't think they bring him back. Probably either they elevate Tyler Sky or they add somebody else in the draft later. But it'd be a good spot for Calvin Ridley, like especially looking at how he was used last year for Jacksonville, a lot of downfield work. Maybe he splits more of that with Dj Moore. And I think Calvin Ridley was somewhat miscast in his role last season, So getting him back to where he's running more short and intermediate routes, I think he showed enough last year to say that he's not washed, he's not past the apex. I still think he's a very very good wide receiver. But I think it'd be a much better NFL fit and better NFL outcome than we talking about in fantasy, because I still would project Dj.

Moore be the wide receiver one there Erickson. A lot of PEO people, including myself, we're very excited about Calvin Ridley a year ago. How we chantry if he's in Chicago this year? Yeah, I mean it was almost consensus that everybody was thinking he was too under ranked last year, and then he was over ranked.

Yeah.

Yeah, because we put expectations on the guy hadn't played like two years. It's like, oh wow, of course he's gonna come out rusty and again after Week one, that's exactly what happened. But I would downgrade him. I want to see him back in Jacksonville. I think that he had an elite opportunity and he just it just didn't come together. But he's the simple case of we may have just been a year early on Calvin Ridley. I really think that's the case in jackson If he stays in Jacksonville. But in this case, yeah, I don't want to see him. And as so you go to Chicago for fantasy, he would be the number two behind DJ Moore pretty clearly. And I mean in Ridley's career, like when he was the number two besides Julio Jones, Like he hasn't really ever stepped up necessarily when he's had elite target competition even this past year, like Christian Kirk was basically neck and neck with him in target chair and then Nevin Ingram was the guy that was eating up all the targets, especially underneath. So I think, really, yes, better real life fit for the Chicago whoever their quarterback is. So you drop Caleb Williams into that offense with Ridley, DJ Moore, Cole Comett and like you feel really good about a rookie quarterback with his talent. But for Ridley as a a fantasy asset, I think that he'll just kind of maintain his boom er bust mantra where he's gonna have massive games, but then it's gonna be companied by a lot of really really down games.

You think you think he'd still be like what a wide receiver three for you ericson he would.

Basically be the same guy that we're gonna talk about next.

Yeah, I'm glad quickly before I moved to the next guy that you mentioned, you know, kind of what it would look like for the quarterback being dropped in there, because I mean, like Dj Moore, Calvin Ridley co comet, like you said, maybe they even add another receiver with the ninth pick, possibly, like that's that's about his compelling of a situation as you could be dropped in for a team that's picking number one overall obviously that they earned that trade.

Field bill day, yeah, or.

Which I think is unlikely. But let's go to that other wide receiver that you mentioned, Gabe Davis to the Jacksonville Jaguars, something of a Calvin Ridley replacement here in our theoretical scenario. It's hard to imagine many quarterbacks obviously, you know, being a better fit for a guy like Davis in terms of the deep passing than Josh Allen given his arm. Trevor Lawrence obviously very talented deebro gave Davis to Jacksonville Jaguars. Would we be back in on Davis at all?

I think you would just look at as a push I think Gabe Davis, we know who he is at this point of his career, and I know Ericson and I have had various iterations we've been in on Gabe Davis. We've been pushing hype train on Gabe Davis and stuff, but at this point we just have to call it who he is. Like he's a deep threat. That would be a really good marriage. Now I say a really good marriage. But we've seen like the up and downs of Calvin Ridley had last year as the deep threat for Jacksonville, So now you're looking as the water down version of that. So I think Gabe Davis would be a wide receiver four or five, and we're probably just going to see a push because you know, Lawrence is a very good deep ball thrower in his own right. Last year he was twelfth in deep ball completion rate. So for me, this would be a push, if not a slight downgrade going from Josh Allen's deep ball to Trevor Lawrence's deep ball. And just like the overall complexity of the Jacksonville offense and how they're gonna build it, so for me, if he gets hyped at all, I'll just be lower.

They consensus are out on him.

Erickson gave Davis and Jacksonville, what do you think, Well, I.

Don't think he's gonna get hyped. There's no way after gave Davis met like four straight games without a catch, that he's gonna get hyped going to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yeah, it's just gonna be the same thing. It's gonna be Boomer Bus guy. It's really gonna come down to price. Like that is always gonna be the question gave Davis because if he's cheap enough, it's like, well it's worth it because we know he's gonna have these big spike weeks because that's his game, Like that's his mantra. And we saw that with Calvin Riley. Calvin Ridy was equally as frustrating to own last year as gave Davis was. It was kind of like the Spider Man meme where Ridley, yes, was getting more opportunity, but again it was super Boomer and Buss. Just I remember like comparing the tales, like, God, Calvin Ridley is Gabe Davis of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now you have Gabe Davis landing in Jacksonville, and I actually think that if they do not retain Calvin Ridley that this is a realistic outcome. We look at the coaching staff again, I'm connecting the dots here. People looking at the Jacksonville Jaguars coaching staff. Wide receiver coach Chad Hall was with Buffalo as their wide receiver coach for Davis's first three seasons in the NFL, So there's a connection there. And I do think it's interesting that Jacksonville is one of these teams that they take other teams wide receivers that are kind of like under used in different roles, Like they expanded Christian Kirk's role and he was really productive. Zay Jones another guy that flashed with the Raiders and then they brought him into Jacksonville and I was like, oh, like why are they signing all these like slot receivers And then he had a bigger role and was really productive. So didn't really work out with Ridley. So yeah, if gave Davis was cheap enough, there should be a price where you're like, all right, I can draft gave Davis. But if he's going in like you know where he was last year or even like two years ago, where it was like fifth, sixth round like count me out of that, but I think he will be cheap enough to at least dabble in as like their wide receiver five.

I want to add one more thing here before we move on. Just thinking through this this entire exercise, I would be high on Christian Kirk because looking at Gabe Davis, he doesn't have the target drawing ability that Calvin Ridley did last year. So I think this would be a quiet bump for Christian Kirk in his ability to earn an even higher target cheer in twenty twenty four.

Let's move to their running backs here. We're talking about Derrick Henry to the Baltimore Ravens. This is a matchup that some people thought about, perhaps at the trade deadline this last year. There were some rumors that there was maybe even a deal in place, and that the Titans ownership kind of squashed it at the last second. But King Henry joining that backfield, you know, I think Gus Edwards is probably gone unless they bring him back on a really cheap deal. But you know, Derreck Henry and LaVar in the backfield together obviously super super indicing Devro, what would you think about Derrick Henry in Charms City, I would.

Be all in.

I'd be all in on Derrick Henry. And because this is the thing people are. The first thing that people want to talk about with Derek Henry is they're going to talk about his age. They're going to talk about, oh, is he washed up? Is he not like that whole entire thing. He is built different. He's shown us that he is built different. And those type of running backs and we get fewer and fewer them that are true unicorns at the position, that are really outliers. Derick Henry is one of those guys. He did not slow down last year. If you want to talk to me about, okay, the age and stuff and the mile edge and stuff, show me where outside of the counting stats that Derrick Henry slowed down last year, we're still talking about a running back that amongst all running backs with at least fifty carries was ninth, and explosive run rate eleventh in yards of the contact per attempt, and you're talking about the marriage with the Ravens offense that was fifth, and gap run concept rate last year, Derrick Henry's success rate on gap runs was five point seven percent higher than on zone runs. So get the big man going downhill and he's still got the juice to break tackles and stiff armed guys into the grave. Yeah, I would love Derrick Henry in this.

Yeah.

Interestingly, the previous four seasons prior to last year, he had fifteen fumbles and zero last year. I'm not saying that that's necessarily indicative of anything, but that seemed to be like a real improvement of what we saw out of him last year. You know, the year before fifteen hundred rushing yards, he had almost three hundred and fifty carries in twenty twenty two. Last year he just said two hundred and eighties. So of course he was down at about eleven hundred rushing yards, but still over a dozen touchdowns both years on the ground. Ericson, I know you talked about this a bit earlier in the week, but just to give a chance for those who didn't see that show and are listening to this one. Derek Henry and Baltimore pretty fun.

Right, I mean, anything to get the Heisman backfield back, understand, Like, that's that's what we needed, Baltimore. We had it with mark Ingram and lamar Jack, Like we got to bring it back, so Derek Henry is the easiest way for them to do. So it's funny, like because the DEEPO mentioned this at the top, like when you talked about Derek Henry was like the first thing people are gonna bring up. Ohlway's like thirty. Right, he was also second to the NFL in rushing guards last season. Like people look at him like, yes, like from his standards, right, he's on a decline, but were you just compared like every other running back. It's like, oh, yeah, this guy's still like a top ten running back. So that's something to keep in mind. It's like, yeah, maybe he's not the Derek Henry of Vold, but he's still better than a lot of other running backs in the NFL. Like the running back is a dying position, and Derrick Henry and even in this form, is still a top ten guy in my estimate. So I love it to Baltimore. And I haven't been on Derek Kenry the last couple years just because of his prime and fantasy. And I think even in Baltimore, like people will find ways to pick holes, especially the fact that first thing that comes to mind is like, oh, he's thirty years old. I'm gonna buy the discount.

And he won't catch passes, and what if other guys work in and exactly, I'd be like, I don't care, because he's gonna be an RB two in drafts and I'm like, oh, oh, let's go wide receiver heavy early and then give me.

Derek Henry is my hero.

So, first of all, Derrick Henry has had his two best receiving years of his career, the last years. They're not great obviously relative to a lot of running backs out there, but maybe like as he's gotten order, been a little you know, able to work in more in that area. But more importantly, we just saw what a guy of that style of runner can be in Gus Edwards in Baltimore and the dude scored like a dozen touchdowns and that's no offense. But that's a guy at Gus Edwards's level. Imagine Derrick Henry in that same role and the Ravens want to run the ball like they It might be in the draft, it might be in free agency, it might be via trade. I don't know they are going to add a started running back this season. I will be shocked if they don't. And Dereck Henry is as good of a fit as you could possibly have there. I mean, I can't, I can't imagine. I mean outside maybe like Josh Jacobs. I can't imagine a running back on the market that I'd rather see in Baltimore than Dereck Henry. Right, is there anybody you can think of?

De run?

No?

Right? No? I want I want.

King Henry, King Ring Henry to be a raven. I want to see him in the purple and black. I need this in my life, guys, I need this.

The only thing that I think would be potentially core would be King Henry into Texans Jersey after.

He's ruined them for.

Cool.

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Means they're all in. I think that the Bengals really fell short of expectations this year because of injuries, and I think that had they been healthy, they would have given the Chiefs a run for their money in the AFC, you know, alongside with Baltimore. But unfortunately they did not stay healthy. All their guys were hurt and I think Saquon Barkley is just an indication like, hey, like we feel like we can win now. So getting a three down running back upgrade from Joe Mixon, I think that Saquon would be a fantasy RB one and again, like his supporting cast has just been so bad, like for every single year it seemed like with the Giants. I think that you get a lock of ceiling with him that we haven't seen really since potentially his rookie year when he was catching passes out of the backfield left and right. And I think that we've seen with Mixon what he's done in the passing game. I know as a talent, Barkley's more talented running back than Joe Mixon, even if he hasn't always shown it. I think that we could see a ceiling outcome for Saquon Barkley he ends up on the Bengals a three down running back.

Yeah, if he's getting this backfield, that's really exciting for any running back really just giving the other talent in the offense, but Saquon especially could feels like he very easily take advantage of an offense like this, right tbro Oh.

Yeah, man, I'm like, look, if you're gonna sign Saquan again, like flushing this whole entire scenario out. In this scenario, obviously Joe Mixon has been cut, he's gone, but we also need to talk about all of this hope and height for Chase Brown would also be snuffed out, So that would be gone. Because Barkley, if you're bringing him in, it's probably on a two maybe a three year deal, probably a three year deal with only the real meat potatoes of it is only two years. And in that scenario, yes, they're all in. They're gonna use Barkley as a true bell cow.

And we've seen what they've done with Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon's been.

It's not even arguably he's been bad the last two seasons. He's not breaking tackles, he was not explosive. He was just the guy that was better than everybody else on the depth chart because they had nobody else. So Barkley would be the dude. And it depends on where you want to rank him. He would be a locked in RB one with top three upside is probably the way I'd be viewing him.

Two of the last three years debro under four yards per attempt. Just any concern about as he's getting I mean running backs do age quickly twenty seven. I'm not serious.

There is some because last year, if you look at his deeper efficiency metrics, some of those things did fall off for Saquon. He was thirty thirty yards oft to contact per attempt thirty seventh, the miss tackles forced per attempt. Now, some of these things you could say because the other part about last season that we also need to give context to is Barkley played a lot of games. He was not truly healthy from over half of the season.

Like he was playing all the snaps.

But even Barkley was out there telling people, I Am not going to be right the rest of the year, but I'm working my way through it for the team. So truly healthy Saquon Barkley, I think he's got enough tread left where those metrics bounce back. Maybe he's not top ten, top twelve in tackle breaking metrics, but seeing him bounce back where he's in the low twenties, and considering that the offensive line is probably a little bit better and the offensive complexion, especially scoring opportunities, is gonna be way better, I'd still be high on Barkley.

Yeah, the improved offense would mitigate whatever sort of another year of age.

You think it's a big deal to like not going to the game, being like, I'm the only chance our team has a scoring Yeah.

Yeah, I feel like that.

Was his mindset going into every single year. He's like, I don't score on this play, then we're never gonna score. And I think that wears on a player where Cincinnati Bengals be like, I just go on ball because I know we're gonna move the ball no matter what.

Well, and then he's pressing, he's trying to take every carry for a home run because he's like, well, I don't do it, who's doing it.

It's a good story.

But all right, let's go to Josh Jacobs, who mentioned briefly earlier to the Texans. Really, I mean, such such a fun up and coming offense, terrible running game last year, but obviously CJ. Stroud going into year two, we saw what the receivers can be, you know, particularly when healthy with Tank Dell coming back missing kind of that running back piece. I mean, there's there's stuff too, like to a degree about like Davian Pierce and Devin Singletary, but they're not it. They're not like this Bell Cow gonna really drive the offense on the ground. Josh Jacobs can be that. We've seen him be that before. You know, took a step back last year relative to what he had been the year before, but he's still relatively young, obviously super talented. De bro Josh Jacobs in Houston. How excited would you be?

I wouldn't be. I'd be.

I wouldn't be.

I wouldn't be.

I love CJ. Strout, but I think Josh Jacobs. I think that year of the heavy and sane usage, I think he's cooked.

Man.

I think that you're looking at it the Marco Murray kind of guy and not like maybe pe okay, so in saying that, people were like, well, you're making the case that he has, you know, this second breath of life.

I just don't see that. We think we see that out of Josh Jacobs.

Like last year, amongst sixty eight qualifying running backs, tell me if any of these numbers get you excited, Guys, he was fifty at the mess tackle, was four pro attempt, sixtieth in yards out of contact per attempt, he was fifty fourth and explosive run rate, and we could say.

Oh, it was the offensive line.

It was a situation, Zamir Why didn't have any problems breaking tackles behind the same exact offensive line and looking better than Jacobs did the entire part of the season in the cup of coffee he got as a starter, So I'm out on Jacobs. For me, I would fade him in my ranks, give me last round Damian Piers, because he's a guy that if you want to talk about where people ended up last year, Damian Pierce had a very, very tough season, But Damian Pierce was also still ninth in this tackles force per attempt. The offensive line played terrible, and then he came back in Devin Singletary had the job and didn't let go of it. So I'd be out on Jacobs and on Peers.

I think I'd be a little more willing to at least give him a chance after the down year last year. I mean, I understand the metrics were pretty bad, but this would be a pretty significant upgrade in offense, and it's an offensive coordinator that we have seen we'll stick to the run even if it's not working, So I think he would get at least similar volume to what we had seen previously. And you know with the Raiders prior to last season ericson what do you think about the fit?

I like it, h So I disagree with de bro because the Jacob season. Yeah, he was bad last year, but like that looks like an outlier compared to the rest of his career, Like that last year was his worst season, but every other season, he's been a top twenty four running back every single year. So why are we now, Oh, well, he had one bad year. He's twenty six. He's probably washed, like he's not could be. Yeah, And people were saying this about Joe Mixon too. He had one bad year and then was like, oh, he sucks, and then what did you do the next couple of years? He was fine because he was playing in it again.

Joe Mason got all the opportunity and yes, in that and that he could.

He Jacobs would get all the opportunity in Houston if they were signed.

Could.

So it's not it's not hard to paint a picture of him getting double digit touchdowns in this offense, especially anticipating like a second year leap from what was already an exceptional first season from Strotuard.

Our sample size is just larger with Jacob's being productive. Like I faded him last year because he was coming off you fade the guy that leads the NFL touches the next year, but then after that, like you have to reset it because it's like, oh, now he's not coming off a season where he had three hundred and fifty touches, Like that's.

Not He also just turned twenty six four days ago, so he will be twenty six for the full season.

For whatever that redown skill set, he can catch passes and we've seen what a Chrish McCaffrey level esque player can do in the forty nine ers offense, what we saw with Kyle Shanahan, and Jacobs can handle that kind of workload that which he's done basically every single year of his career except for last year.

Let's go to the next running back here, because we've got to move a little quicker at the end of the show. Tony Pollard to the Eagles, obviously staying within the division in this scenario, going to a bitter arrival of the Cowboys. Pollard is a guy that Ericson was tweeting about earlier this week as some very intriguing stats about why he might be very interesting going into next season, is even more so interesting to you ericson if he's in Philly.

Yeah, I mean, I think that the fit there with Kellen Moore is good. You know, a player that or a coach that knows Tony Pollard, knows his and his weaknesses and was obviously highlighted when Tony Pollard was great and excellent and efficient in twenty twenty two. Took a step back last year. But you know, the stat that I kind of pulled on Twitter this past week was, you know, since week eleven basically when Tony Park came out and said, Hey, like I finally feel back for my broken leg injury. He was PF's highest graded rusher from Week eleven onward in the entire NFL. That was Tony Pollard. So I think that we're going to get wherever Polar ends up, We're going to get a more efficient running back than we had seen last year. And I think that he's just the perfect We were again one year too early on him. I think he's the perfect bilo opportunity guy, and any coaching staff is going to put him into a position to succeed, whether it's with Kellen Moore. Now the question marks are obviously with the touchdowns and the tush push like that's obviously plays a role because Paul couldn't score touchdown. So that's the one thing that you have to flag as a potential. It's a red flag essentially for any running back that lands in Philadelphia, which is obviously what hurts DeAndre Swift this past season. But DeAndre Swift put up career highs across the board in terms of rushing production. So you're still going to I think an uber productive Pollard in Philadelphia, just a matter of the touchdowns again, but again he'll be much cheaper than a fringe first round pick in twenty twenty four.

De you bro, remind me where you had Pollard ranked at running US the last season. I just can't we go.

I have an RB one.

Overall, the process was right, the results did not bear out if you look at his usage, if you look at all the red zone touches, if you look at expected fantasy points per game, and I know those are not paying the bill. But Tony Pollard has had the worst run, bad season. And did we not give enough credit to Okay coming back from tightrope?

Yes, So I'll on that part of it. But the rest of the process about.

Him getting the role and keeping the role and producing in the role as far as the volume and the opportunities was exactly right. Now, did he do anything as far as tackle breaking, No, because coming back from the tightrope was a big deal and he wasn't Ryan like Erickson talked about. But week eleven through eighteen, after he declared himself right, he was twenty first and explicit run rate, fifteenth in yards after contact preteenpt amongst forty four qualifying running backs. So if you're looking at another year off of that procedure and he really gets back to being Tony Pollard, he's going to be ranked. If this were to come to fruition, he would be ranked as a low end RB two, high end RB three, I think, and Swift last year was RB twenty four in Fantasy points per game. Even with all of the Jaller hurt stealing goal line touches, and if you compare them, I'm sorry, Tony Pollard is still even at this iteration of his career, he is still a better player than DeAndre Swift. People could push back on that. I don't really care. It's a fact because his efficiency and is tackle breaking and if that comes back, he is better than DeAndre Swift. So air dropping me into this situation. If the efficiency in the tackle breaking goes back to being even closer to twenty twenty two than last season, yeah, Tony Pollard would crush his ADP.

Let's get to one last running back here, Eckler to the Commanders, and an interesting one that I really like. Giving the recent coaching additions to Washington's staff, Debra, start with you here, Eckler in Washington, would you be excited there?

I'm not gonna steal Ericson's thunder. I'm gonna let him connect the dots, Okay, because that's what he does, so.

I'm gonna let him do it.

But with that everything we talked about, I would be lower on Eckler and I would be higher on Brian Robinson because again we're talking about running backs that unfortunately.

Look, I love law Austin Eckler. I love that he's dove in.

He's a big proponent of in supporting fantasy football and all of the things, and every year that he's been out there crushing it.

But I think last year we saw he's past the apex.

Man and we could talk about the injuries and stuff like that that definitely bears talking about. But amongst sixty eight qualifying running backs, he was outside the top fifty two running backs in explosive run rate, miss tackles, forest and yards of the contact for attempt. All of those screamed to me that this is a running back on the down side of his career. So despite all the dot connecting that Erickson's about to do, I would be out on Eckler.

Yeah, Ericson obviously a doubt in here last year, but maybe more intrigue here given the coaching stuff.

Uh No, not for me, because I think it's going to be going. He's going to be in a complimentary role, like they're not going to stop using Brian Robinson. So again, like the doc connecting here is Anthony Lynn is not going to be the Commander's new run game coordinator. Obviously, he was the head coach for the Los Angeles Chargers when Austin Eckler was running back there and in that rendition of Eckler's role, like he split carries with Melvin Gordon. So again it's a situation where Eckler's going to do his best for himself, but that may not be. Oh, I want to put up the best numbers wherever I end up going in free agency. I want to go where I feel comfortable with the coaching staff. And maybe he realizes, hey, well, the thing with Eckler this entire time, he's always been telling like, I want less carries, like he's always been vocal about that, And now I think he can go to the commanders where he knows he can split carries with Brian Robinson operating more in early down. So maybe we get a little boost of an efficiency from Eckler. But if he's not seeing a red zone roll on an offense, that may be heralded by a rookie quarterback like how often are they going to be scoring points? I mean they threw the They threw so much last year they couldn't score touchdown. So yeah, I think Austin Eckler, for me, is looking more like a complimentary piece in a running back by committee, whether it's in Washington or somewhere else. And I think that if we're looking at Okay, who's going to be this year is like Dalvin Cook, a veteran run back that kind of like falls off the face of the earth. I would look at Eckler more than someone like Jacob's. Like Eckler is two years older than Jacobs. Eckler is twenty eight years old. So that's where I'm going to kind of I will agree here with you, bro that I'm probably gonna be out on Eckler.

Yeah, I agree as well. And also he will be twenty nine by the twenty nine now starts. Yeah, he's all I've heard.

In all of our talk about Austin Eckler is he would be sexier Antonio Gibson, and Antonio Gibson has not worked out last year or the year before, so.

I think it's a smart connection to make. But also like he's going to a worse offense, which you mentioned, and also coming off of a bad.

Year, and they actually have like as you can throw the ball to. That's the other thing. Like Eckler is always thrived because the Chargers never have anyone else.

Allen, we didn't even talk about Curtis Samuel Gonna. Could he also eat into the short area targets that Eckler would be, you know, wor we would be giving them.

Role He may that's true too, It's true too.

Before we wrap up with the tight ends. Why not get a head start on the twenty twenty four season with our best Ball draft kit at fantasypros dot com slash best Ball. It's your go to resource for best ball rankings, draft strategies, rookie scouting reports, and so much more. Again that's fantasypros dot Com slash best Ball. Guys were kind of up it on time, up against it on time, so tight ends will put them both together. Dalton Schultz to the Bengals we have they obviously have a needed tight end. And Hunter Henry to the Dolphins, debro which one of those sticks out more to you as a more intriguing fit?

Schultz, Baby, I mean great offense. We know the red zone scoring opportunity is gonna be there in twenty twenty two. Taking out the noise of Joe Burrow and not being there, there were ninth in red zone scoring opportunities. Plus he'd be the ever down guy. The entire Bengals depth chart is on the free agency line right now, like Drew Sample, Tanner Huts and Mitchell Willcox, IRV Smith Junior, all of those guys gone. Maybe they bring back Drew Sample as a blocking guy. But this would be Dalton Schultz's role, and I faded him all last offseason to my detriment, Like he played really well in Houston, You're telling me he's gonna air dropped in Cincinnati and we don't even know if T Higgins is gonna come back.

Yeah, I'd be in on Schultz.

Ericson Schultz also kind of the standout of these two. D you or do you have more interest in Henry? Maybe?

I think that Schultz were probably looking at like back end, tight end one finish because again he's in a high powered offense, but there's a lot of mouths to feed in Cincinnati, like is he going to get more targets than T Higgins and Jamar Chase? Like probably not. So we're looking out, okay, like how can I get the best efficiency that comes with touchdowns Hunter? Henry has been touchdown machine with the Patriots. He's been a touchdown machine repeat with the Patriots offense the last year.

To do that again if we sent him to Miami and he was the third off.

Because he most started to score twenty one touchdowns again, so we know that Miami's going to score a lot of pointsespecially in their face bad teams, and Hunter Henry could be that guy in the red zone. Again, when Mike is Seki was still there, he had big weeks because he scored touchdowns, and Hunter Henry that's what he's best at as a red zone weapon. So again, I don't think that either of these guys and it would be like, oh, like he's gonna break fantasy football. But if you're playing the odds, I need to find touchdowns to get tight end production if the targets are not gonna necessarily be there from a vast amount, because neither of these guys are going to be the number one or even number two on these respective offenses, so you need touchdown production. I think Henry can definitely carve out a big red zone role in Miami's offense, who doesn't really have a lot of depth behind Wattle and Tyree kill.

Well, and we've seen too, like Mike Daniel comes from an offense offensive scheme tree that uses the tight end. They just really haven't had that tight end option in Miami yet. But it's not like his scheme can't use one and his wide receiver heavy for whatever reason, So I think that would be really intriguing as well. We will get out of there on that. Thank you everybody for sticking with us for an extra long episode. Again, it's just a fun exercise, right, We're not making these predictions, but just kind of how this would play out, landing, spot evaluation, all that fun stuff for Ericson and deebro I am Ryan Warnley, everybody. Thanks for tuning in and we'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasypros