My friend Josh Applebaum. Of course, we've been doing these lessons for some time. If this is your first time visiting us. Josh is up in the Boston area, and I saw a prop bet for the Everything Guy, Josh over or under four and a half number of mentions of Boston sports teams on this lesson in the Everything Guy, do you go with the over or the under? Oh? Man, I think you know what, Ron, I'm a Conturian better. I think you would think on the surface, it's got to go over. But maybe I'll maybe I'll flip it. Maybe some short money's on the under. You can't go wrong with the Conturian under here. I'll try to limit my my Boston and Duncan Donuts references. Oh and Duncan Donuts. Yeah, well, there you go. By the way, over or under two dozen donuts that Josh will have coming to him before we get very far into the Everything Guide. We're going over with that one. Baby. We're going over, Ron Flatter with the aforementioned Josh Applebum Donuts in hand donuts and mouth donuts. Wherever you are, Josh, don't talk with your mouthful. This is a lesson. Now we're we're rolling in recording? Are you are you? Are you sufficiently satiated with your appetite? I'm ready, I'm ready to go. Ron. Yeah, we're gonna talk today about prop bets. What is a prop that? Yeah, you hear a lot about it, Ron, What is it? I was just gonna say here. Prop bets really have become so popular. We've heard about them, especially around the super Bowl, and you see all these fun things about will Team A and the super Bowl score more points than Lebron James in a basketball game the same day, things like that. But prop bets are no longer limited to the first Sunday in Februar wearing. That's so true round and they've really exploded, And we'll get to it in a little bit, you know, talking about kind of the certain times of year where prop betting just absolutely explodes. And the Super Bowl is the number one time of year where you just see a massive influx of casual betters that are just entertained and just you know, you kind of think of prop betting as a fun way to make watching the super Bowl or a big event um that much more entertaining. But really they're available all year round. They're getting bigger and bigger each year, and really we're gonna gonna do today is kind of talk strategies and talk um kind of pull back the curtain in terms of how are you know, best times a year to bet props, best prop situations to target, where's smart money? How to identify smart money on a prop BET's a lot to get to it today, Ron, and looking forward to it, it occurs to me, Josh that the sharp money in prop bets could come from daily fantasy players because we see so much of individual statistics being built into prop bets. Is that true? That is so true? Roun. Yeah, you know, we gotta give our DFS guys a lot of credit because daily fantasy sports, you know, you really saw it get popularized, you know, kind of twenty tens, early twenty tens up to and once you saw kind of the stigma of betting kind of disappear, once DraftKings fan duel, daily fantasy bettors took the stigma away, help to legalize sports betting. But what's cool with prop betting is that, you know, we know, okay, what is a problem. A prop bet is short for a propositional bet. You know, we kind of just say props for short. That's kind of the terminal here in terms of vernacular, but it's also known as kind of an exotic bet, and what it is is UM. Basically, it's any kind of bet that is outside of the conventional spread, money line, or over under that isn't tied to the outcome of the game and the final score. So kind of what you're doing is you're trying to identify specific matchups or situations where either you're betting on a player. Uh. And it makes it fun because it's a different way to bet on a game. You know, maybe you may not like the spread or the total or the money line, but you say it mayn I really like Aaron Rodgers overpassing yards, you know, three only five and apt because you know he's been hot, he's playing a bad porous worst past defense in the league, the Detroit Lions, whoever it may be. UM. But again, we've really got to give credit to the DFS community because, uh, betting on players is something they popularize because obviously you're setting a lineup when you're playing Daily Fantasy, you're trying to have most points scored in your lineup compared to all the other bettors. You're competing against. But that really got it started with betting on players. So we'll talk player props today. We'll also talk just you know, novelty entertainment props overall. But again, our DFS guys really got the ball rolling with individual player props. And long before DFS, prop bets were around, maybe not in the numbers they are now, but we talked about the Super Bowl and if you really think about it, if you go back thirty forty years, depending on when you're hearing this, it was around that time when prop bets really germinated, right, Yeah, this is true round And I was funny because I was born in eighty seven. I remember my dad ball went through Buckner a little roller up around first gets the legs behind that. My mom was pregnant. Comes tonight. My dad tortured Red Sox fan. We broke the curse, you know. Uh, bunch of years later, but um, yeah, and that nineteen eighties six Super Bowl. This, uh is kind of just researching for my book. There everything got to sports betting, just props in general. In the eighties, prop bets really kind of got big during the Super Bowl because bettors, uh you know, Oddsmaker especially at the Westgate MGM. They wanted to offer more bets for casual betters to take advantage of. And this is a crazy story. Ron, I'm gonna ask you, where were you when the refrigerator, uh Perry scored that touchdown? And do you know the backstory behind that prop bet with the fridge scoring? Well, yeah, I mean and of course there's the whole thing about Walter Payton never having scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl and there was the anger about that because the fridge did. And so I was in Auraville, California watching the game. Actually it's the only Super Bowl I've I've been either ben two or watched every Super Bowl except Super Bowl one. And I was alive but just hadn't didn't watch it, and that's Super Bowl. I actually fell asleep during the game. Now, the way the game went that you could you wouldn't blame me. So I don't know that I actually saw the fridge score that live. Well what's crazy round is uh you know? And it's funny too how things work out because Jimmy Viccaro was working with the MGM at that time and now he's obviously uh our prize and the Steam oddsmaker at the South Point. But um, Jimmy Macaro back in the day nine six, they're starting to again. You got Rember. Prop bets were nothing before this time, unheard of. Basically you can only bet spread money line over under. What they did was they put up a prop bet, will the Fridge uh score a touchdown in the game, And it opened at fifty to one, massive payout if you want to take a shot in it, and it got hit so hard by a lot of just recreational betters for fun. Wouldn't be crazy if he scored the you know, the Fridge had been used as a fullback, you know, throughout the season, and it it's so hard open fifty to one got down to eight to one, and Jimmy Vikarl said he kind of went nuts when the Fridge scored and just kind of threw his hands up in the air because the MGM on that one player on lost fifty dollars with everyone betting on the Fridge to score a lot of them getting insane closing line value if they got a fifty two to one. And then really since that time, props have just exploded and really just odds makers across the market, uh in Vegas, you know, the global market, so many different props, and it kind of seems like every year more and more props anything you can bet on on the super Bowl, and um, it's just been crazy with more books getting more and more creative through the years, and there's so much pressure on the bookmakers to actually write new props. I know, it's like doing a creative writing assignment. There's thirty five pages of them at places in some shops and you're you're just waiting through them. But I say better, Okay, So we get it from the bookmaker's point of view, From what about from the better's point of view? You can bet on everything, as you mentioned, from players statistics and the comparison between the Super Bowl and other sports and other games, to the length of the national anthem and the coin toss at the beginning of the game. Yeah, it's just incredible. And you know, one thing we would want to mention to our visa listeners here is that you know, again it's all about discipline and identifying value because you know, Ron, it's crazy. I get to the super Bowl and you know, you have that two week lead up and I'm just so excited about it and everyone else is too, and you see so many props every single day, more and more come out. There's hundreds to choose from, so uh as a microcosm kind of the Super Bowl and just prop betting in general, try not to have a million prop bets all over the place, because you can easily fall into a situation where you just see value everywhere you look and you bet way too many of them, and you know, you kind of start betting ones you lean on and you like, and you're not getting a great numbers. So again, it's easy to get undisciplined bet a ton of them, just trying to you know, stick to limiting your bets. Overall. You'd hate to, you know, maybe win the super Bowl spread or the total and then you know, go to in five with your props and kind of throw it all the way. That's that's kind of the worst thing that can happen overall. But yeah, you know we're talking novelty props. The national anthem will go over, you know, two minutes in five seconds, the color of the gatorade, the first commercial we gotta mention to ron. You know, especially with prop bets, they're all over the place, but you gotta do a little little research and a little homework to find out where you can get down on these prop bets, because um, in Vegas, Ron, isn't it true that you know some Vegas sports books don't allow some of these weird novelty prop bets based on the Gaming Commission. Yeah, there, And they are the ones where you could have some argument over what's going on. For instance, I remember seeing one would Patrick Mahomes throw a ball left handed and then you get down to what was it a throw? Was it a pitch? Was it? So you don't have that opportunity, or you might see, okay, will he wears something on his Jim McMann while he wears something on his headband was a thing back in the day. You wouldn't see that in Las Vegas. But you do the coin toss, and that's one I don't know about betting the coin toss yet. How how much of a degenerate do you have to be to bet the coin toss? So what's crazy to me? Ron? If you take one lesson from this episode, hope you take a lot of lessons, but one for sure is in your life, never bet the coin toss. So, uh, number one, I think it's a very easy one where number one, you can just you know, bet it, and immediately before the game even starts, the thought processes, I got a chance. It's it can only be heads or tails. Hopefully I win, and right off the bat, before the game even starts, you know I've already cashed a ticket there. However, you gotta remember, and this is this is just the crazy part about betting. You always gotta be um, you gotta you gotta remember. The juice on both sides of the coin flip is minus juice. So it might be you know, heads minus one oh five, tales minus one oh two, or heads minus one oh seven tales minus one oh three. And what does that mean. It means that you don't have a true fifty chance of winning that that coin flip. So you know, the oddsmakers they of this coin flip because no matter what, they're guaranteed to make money based on the juice flip, both sides pay. So don't ever bet the coin flip. If you're gonna do it, okay, you know, have fun, hope you win, bet a low amount, but know that right off the bat it is totally uh not in your favorite to bet a coin flip when you're laying minus juice on both sides. Yeah, don't shoot the whole pocket full of money or even I mean anything on the coin to a long, long day, just you know, hold your fire, all right. So let's give some tips now as far as public versus sharp plays on props. And it almost sounds comical to say sharp plays on props, Well, there are there are, all right. So what are some of the tips that you could offer here? Josh? Yeah, so I think you know, obviously, any kind of prop that you're gonna bet, do your research, do your homework. If you can't identify an edge, And again, never bet based on opinion, Never bet with your heart. Never say you know I'm gonna take uh, you know, Aaron Rodgers over a certain amount of yards or touchdowns just because you're a Packers fan. Do it because you like them. Matchup where you've got a good number. But in general, a couple of things you should always know when you're going into prop betting. Number one similar to um public betters, you know, and again this gets into that concherry and where iron but the similar to that. Seriously, what's the overron concherry in this this podacst have done that for a problem. Yeah, we already got a couple now, or at least one. But um, I think the thing here that you gotta remember is, you know, public betters love betting props because they're fun. And as a result, when they're really fun, what do you do? You have that public bias where when you're betting a regular game, you'll lead you lean toward favorites home teams overs. Same thing with prop bets, A lot of prop bets. When you have an over under of you know whoever it may be, Russell Wilson over under you two point five yards, there's an innate bias in a predisposition for recreational betters to always want to bet the over. So what that means is and again why because it's more fun to root for over. It's more fun to root for more things than less things. And what does this mean? It means that in general, just you know, generally speaking, doesn't mean this is always the case, but there are values to betting unders in prop bets, So keep that in mind, you know, you look at also, I remember Jimmy Garoppolo and that Super Bowl against the Chiefs. You know his passing yards opened up at I think like close to like two forty two fifty, and sharps just hammered that under and it got way down maybe fifteen twenty yards when it closed. So generally speaking, any kind of prop that that's falling is usually clearly indicative of sharp money, and usually sharp's will target these props, hit them early at their highest mark, or what they'll do is kind of wait, knowing that the public will bet the over, and they'll wait out for the public to artificially inflate that number, get it up as high as it can go, and then hit that under at the highest point and try to, you know, go the other way. But remember public loves overs. When you're betting props, you should always keep that in mind. What about in terms of other sports beyond the Super Bowl, Like, let's say some of the ones we see early before a baseball season, I mean to some degree they linger into baseball season as well, but the winds and the losses and the home runs and the batting average and the strikeouts and the saves and things like that. Yeah, I think similar sort of thing around leaning towards overs, especially teams that were coming off a really good year or players who had a really good year. So you know a guy Mike Trout when he hits forty five Homer's uh. You know, automatically the public is gonna want to take the over no matter what the number is that the odds makers set for the upcoming season. So you know, star players, big name teams leaning towards these overs, and you also get value on taking overs on bad teams and bad players as well, because just like that Biolo sell high mentality, you're always looking for values. So a lot of those, you know, bad teams or players who had a down year. You always gotta remember betting it's all about regression in the end. You know, you have a great year, you're probably gonna come down a little bit. Next year you have a terrible year, you know, chances are you might do a little bit better than next year. So it's that by low, it's that se high mentality that can really benefit you in betting props. What about in circumstances like the first to do something in a game, the first to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl, the first to score three point basket in the NBA Finals, something along those lines. In an all Star game, maybe the first to hit a home run in baseball? How do you look at those where you have plus money on pretty much everybody and every possibility. Yeah, so tons of value there on. I think one that's really gotten popular, especially in a lot of primetime games, to see it like Thursday night football, Sunday Night football, Monday Night football. Who will be the first touchdown? Score? So oftentimes you know, the best player on the field will be a favorite, but he could be plus five hundred plus seven hundred plus eight hundred, um. However, there's gonna be a good amount of guys who are in the you know, plus fifteen hundred plus two thousand range, so kind of, you know, I know a lot of sharp guys. They'll kind of take a flyer and maybe bet a couple of guys who are you know, plus twelve hundred plus eighteen hundred plus twenty five hundred, and if you can hit one of these again, you're gonna have a huge payout overall. Um. But I think one thing to remember as well when we're talking about public tendencies and betting props is that the public really really flocks to plus money props where they can get a big payouts. So this kind of goes into the parlay conversation. You know, when you're a recreational better, Uh, you want to make a lot of money quickly. You want to become a millionaire overnight. The truth is that's impossible, and uh, if only that were the case, we all wish it was. But betting is hard. You know, you can win if you bet with your head not your heart, and you make smart bets and you beat the closing line. And in my opinion, you'll stay on the sharp side and try to bet against the public. But remember that the public will always like these plus money props where they can turn ten dollars into a hundred or ten dollars into you know, fifteen hundred dollars. So I think it's important to kind of flip it the other way, uh, and remember that, you know, betting on some decent minus umbers you know, has a lot of value overall. Like I always think in the Super Bowl, I kind of I do this every single year, bet no safety and no overtime. You know, it's happened here and there, but most of the time it doesn't happen. And if you can get a safety, uh, you know, usually the public always say yes to a safety or yes to overtime because you're getting plus five you know, plus a hun h plus five hundred plus a thousand plus fifteen hundred. You're saying, sure, I'll put ten bucks on it, and I can you know, turn into a big amount of money. But whise guys love betting that no, you know, minus five hundred minus six hundred, So the public is always gonna fly to those plus money payouts. A lot of sharps will be more than willing to bet some of these minus numbers as long as they're not ridiculously minus um. And you gotta remember, ron, how do the limits work with props? Can you I bet a ton of money on props or what's the deal? How do the oddsmakers work that? Generally you can't because the props are such a risky proposition as it were, that there are lower limits on props than you will have on the games. It's actually I think that's what you gotta remember to these low lower limits, like you know, I think the Super Bowl they're usually about a thousand, and most books maybe closer to uh, you know, um, when the when the game starts to get up around two thousand depending on the prof bet overall. So you can't you can't imagine you've got to become a millionaire betting on props. So it's it's again, it's more of us. I consider a supplementary type bet to kind of help pad your bankroll when you can find good options overall. Um, but run? Did you also know this one? I love too? Uh? There are situations where the oddsmakers will release um one sided prop bets where instead of a yes no option, they only have yes at a certain number, or they only have no at a certain number. Does that ever scare you? Because that always scares me. It's something that's illegal in Nevada, for instance. You'll see to see in other states around the country. You in Nevada, the law is you have to have a winning opportunity on every bet. So if you just have a yes and the answers no and you can't cash on the no, then that means it would be illegal in Nevada. But it does scare me unless it's one of those things where you're being offered this just as an enticement to come aboard and sign up for a particular app or something like that. But generally, no, I stay away from those. I agree with your on yeah, if it's something crazy like an odds boost or a sign up or kind of a fun bet to get your foot in the door and maybe get a bonus something like that. And again with sports betting legalization, you're you're seeing so many more opportunities like that. So I agree with you. But yeah, my rule of thumb is, uh, I try to never bet one side of props because to me, it raises a red flag immediately. You know, why is the why is the book only offering one option? It tells me they're trying to goat me into betting something, even though, um, you know, kind of my chances of winning our our miniscule usually in those situations. But um, and that kind of leads to again these public situations where public is gonna want to lean yes on a lot of these props because you know, again psychologically you're more inclined to say yes than no. So a lot of sharps will lean on a lot of nose in general. So exactly right, it's risk reward, um, But always remember bring that. You know, the public likes overs, they like saying yes. They want big payouts. Sharps know that they can go the other way, lean on some nose, lean on some unders um in lace, decent minus numbers, as long as they're not crazy. But there are props too, Like we saw Joe Burrow in the NFL draft. Yeah, let me bring you tell me asked. Let me ask you that about because that was a whole another area I want you to jump into. The NFL Draft, the NBA Draft. We see a lot of props here, and I think it's a much more educated process for the public because I think the public pays more attention to that than maybe these will of the whisp bets on the Super Bowl. Because you followed college football all season long, you followed college basketball, etcetera. So what do you look at in terms of the draft, in terms of sharps versus the public, and in terms where the money can be made in the best most strategic bets are to be placed. Yeah. So, I obviously everyone loves the Super Bowl and that's the time of year when the most are available, and it's just crazy problem madness. But I personally and would suggest to a lot of listeners identify the NFL Draft because I found a lot of success in the NFL draft. Think there's a lot of value their overall. Reading the tea leaves, looking at odds movement. One suggestion would be, you know, identify a prop and and see where maybe you know players over under, where to get drafted over under, you know, pick five and a half, See where the juice moves. If you can monitor juice movement and see that it's you know, five and a half even, and then it gets to five and a half under minus one twenty under minus one fifty under minus two hundred. If you can read that juice movement, that's typically gonna be sharp money. And again you don't want to lay a minus two hundred, but if you can kind of catch that before it moves, before the price gets worse, a lot of value their overall. But we do have to remind our our our listeners here that you know, things that are definitely almost you figure it has to be guaranteed to happen. Really it seems like easy, easy money, free money, but it's really not worth it in the end. Like again, and Joe Burrow, he just mentioned, you know, he was gonna be you know, the odds on number one pick, and he was the number one pick, and you could bet on Joe Burrow to go first overall, and you know everyone knew and thought and he ended up going first overall. But you had to lay minus ten thousand, minus you know, fifteen thousand, these massive, massive numbers. So what you know, why is that important? It's because even though you think something's bound to happen, there's no value to betting it because number one, you gotta lay a ton to to win it, and the prices and the limits are so low that you're really not gonna make any money overall. And then on the off chance that something crazy happens ron boom, you're gonna lose it all. So there's no value to lend to, you know, betting those those those crazy, crazy favorites that you think half to happen, because there's no guarantee even if you think there is. Yeah, that's the thing. I mean, minus fifteen thousand means you're betting fifteen thousand to make a hundred dollars. Really you really want to do that, And there's a reason they call it bridge jumping. Well, let's not do any further bridge jumping. Let's start thinking about on the other side, talking about where you're shopping for props, so you can certainly do that. There's plenty of them out there, especially when you're around big events, and so many of them are competing with one another. We'll talk about that. Bargain hunting is next as we continue our lesson in prop bets on the Everything Guide. It's The Everything Guide to Sports Betting VSA in podcast with Josh Applebaum, the author of the book by the same name. By the way, Ron Flatter here, So let's shop, Josh, let's shop for numbers. Give us a primer on how to do that with prop bets. Yeah, so props are really really important in terms of shopping for the best line because when you're betting, you know, kind of just a regular NFL game or NBA game, you may see, you know, the line be you know, a half point between one book or another, or maybe one point on a total, but usually they're pretty close to the overall market. Kind of just the age we live in with the Internet and the global market, it's pretty even. You don't want to be a book that's way off from where everyone else is because you're gonna get hit pretty hard. But with these prop bets, you can see a huge difference across the market in terms of numbers overall. So we always talk about no matter where, if it's props or regular conventional bet betting, have multiple outs, shop for the best line. What does that mean? It means that if you want to succeed long term when you're betting on sports, it's not just about picking the right number and picking the right side, or not just picking the right side, it's picking the right number. So you need to access to multiple books round because I remember when I first started, you know, I was young. I had one book. I love that one book. I had a bookmarked, you know, I had it in my phone. It was easy to put in a bet or take out a bet. But I learned very quickly that you know, there are different sports books, they have different numbers, and as a result, you want to be able to place your bet at the book that gives you the best number overall. So you know, for example, you know, when we're talking about the NFL draft, you can look at position totals, odds um on teams taking a specific player or um exact outcome od's first player to be drafted at their position head to head matchups, Will they be a first round pick, just limitless opportunities overall, but you may see situations. I remember with two Otaga vloa uh coming out of Alabama. You know, he got hurt and there was a big discrepancy of where he would get drafted. So you know, one book had two was over under at you know two and a half. One book had three and a half. You know, one book had two and a half at you know, juicing up the over. One had you know three and a half, juicing up the over as well. You know you have different numbers overall. So why is that important. It's because if you have identified an edge, you know, that could be the difference between a win or a lost betting it at one book versus another. So paying a better juice, getting a better number on a position that's really really critically important. Um, and that's what's really gonna you know, kind of turn turn losses into winds, pushes into wins. So make sure you take the time when you first get started open up your multiple accounts, set up your sports books, you know, get your live odds page set up with all the books you have an account at on your page. Because shopping for the best line will really take you from a you know, beginning better to a more you know, advanced and sharper better to long term and talk to me a little bit, Josh about deductive reasoning and how you do apply that in your shopping. Yeah. I think this is important too, because you know, there are situations like I'll give you another example talking about the NFL draft. You know you had a head to head DeAndre Swift and uh Jamal Taylor out of Wisconsin. You know who would be drafted Jonathan Taylor? Yeah, who would be drafted head to head? You know, Swift was a it was kind of like a fifty fifty bet and Swift was like minus one twenty and Taylor's plus one twenty. But if you look at their over under draft position, Swift was like twenty eight and a half and Taylor was like thirty seven and a half. So in terms of deductive reason you can kind of play one prop off another. So you know, if I see that Swift is only a slight slight slate almost fifty uh favorite, but yet he's expected to be drafted ten positions higher than Taylor, what does that mean? Boom? I'm liking that minus one twenty to take Taylor that had to had to be drafted first overall. So that's another thing. Play props off each other, look at one prop, see what another is, and you can kind of again read the tea leads. You use your deductive reasoning to gain insight and hopefully make a smart play. I'm gonna ask you this too. Well. In fact, we we had to discussed talking about this part. But I want to run this by you, and that would be the correlated parlay theory and not necessarily as a parlay play, but maybe you just make separate bets. Going back to the example within game props, if you think that a team or a quarterback is going to pass for higher than the yardage that's been set for him, do you then also think that the game may go over because if you think he's gonna pass for a lot of yards, you think maybe they're going to score a lot of points, and that ties in. Do you then make a correlated play, either as a parlay or separate bets or do you hedge one off the other. It's a great question. I think you know it would depend on so in theory, you would want to, you know, corral of parlay. If if you can uh see an advantage where kind of two bets line up in the same direction In terms of hedging, you know, I think depends on the number you've got and if you're getting plus money and you can guarantee yourself a profit, I think that's really important. But another thing with prop betting is like when you're looking at over under touchdowns, over under passing yardage, look at the total for the full game odds because you know, leaning on a lot of games with high totals is very important because if the odds makers are expecting more points to be scored, then how do you score those points? Typically with more offensive play. So you know, if Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson both have an over under passing yards of maybe three hundred, but yet the total in that Packers game is forty eight and the total in the um the Seahawks game is maybe forty boom, I'm gonna lean more to a lot of these offensive prop in games with high total So I think, um, that's really important as well. Uh. And then Roun, did you also know that not only for individual games can you bet a lot of player prop bets, but also season long prop bets, which absolutely ever take a shot. There have on baseball. I've done that. With baseball. We mentioned the home runs and the and the winds and things like that. I've done that. But as far, I'm generally not a big prop bet player. I tend to do it maybe a little bit more at Super Bowl time, and sometimes I'll do so that in the circumstances where I'm going to then in game just on the sides and the total maybe hedge play against it in that sort of a way. Uh, sometimes I get myself chasing my own tail after a while, But generally, no, I mean, other than some very traditional conservative plays, I don't tend to jump into those. I kind of lean with you on that one round, because you know, number one, you've got to remember that, you know a lot of these season long prop bets you gotta bet during the off season, you know, before the season there's your money exactly. They're kind of like the future's bets. Number one, you have to know that, Okay, I have the patience to remember that these bets are not gonna cash win or lose, you know, for months and months on end. So number one, you gotta be patient, you gotta be disciplined, but also you gotta have liquidity in your bank roll because if you spend all your money you know, off season, the off season, it's kind of tough because you're so excited for the next you know, season to begin, and you can kind of, you know, just get so excited that you just, um, you can't help but bet all these all these bets beforehand. But you can get in trouble because if you've got too many of them and you tie your bankroll, then really you've hurt yourself because you don't have enough liquidity and money to bet just regular individual games once the season begins throughout the season. So that's another big part of it. Ron Um and also just one thing I will stay with baseball, big fan of betting a lot of picture over under k props. There's some value there, especially if you can get situations where you can arbitrage where you know, one book may have UM whoever maybe Garrett Cole, you know over under seven a half strikeouts at plus one oh three and the under seven half is plus one oh two plus one oh five. You can you can see situations like that as well, where you can guarantee yourself a profit. UM And I think that's something to take into account. You've seen that in NFL drafts as well as player props throughout the season. One of the things I look at is doing things on an individual game basis along those lines more so than season long, particularly if you're not getting good plus odds in the case of a prop bet. I don't like playing season win totals. I know that's a separate show in a separate topic, but a large reason I don't do so is I'll put dollars in, let's say in March, and I don't see any kind of possible recovery of that until October. The value of the dollar is going to go down in that time, So you're not just betting into the big and the minus money that might be going along with that on and over under, but you're also betting against inflation. So you need a little bit more, a little bit more bang for your buck coming into that that I'm willing to go ahead and jump into. So I know I've thrown water on something that's very popular, but that's part of how I think. No, I think that's important, and I think our goal, you know, as always with this podcast, ron is just to be honest with the listeners and the viewers and everyone who who tunes into bees, and you know, we we like to let you know that, Okay, our lays a very very fun and just you know, a really popular bet, but there are detriments to it. They're a big house advantage. The same thing with prop bets. Prop bets are super super popular every single year and get bigger and bigger, but there are detriments to it as well. So I think just you know, as listeners, knowing that you know, we're gonna shoot it straight with you and let you know the pros and cons and in the end, remember you're the final arborder of your bank. Oh you place what you believe is the smartest bet you can make. But just knowing that prop bets are great to me, they're a supplementary bet. Um. I do know guys who bet a lot props and just that's their thing and they do well at it, which you know, all the power to you. But overall, just you know, kind of just as you're not gonna make every better parlay bet, don't make every bet, you make a prop bet as well, and I think you'll be okay long term. And just if you had the prop bed about Boston mentions at the top of the show. I think you came in at one. I think you came in at one a very very very stacked deck. I think you really were. We're actually influenced by the fact that this prop bet was hanging over your head apple bomb exactly. There was a lot of late steam coming in on that under. I tell you what, once I got called out. See if you never mentioned it, Ron, if if you tweeted it and I didn't know the number, then I would have flown way over. But yeah, that's okay. Next time we'll we'll we'll have way too many Boston references. I'll talk the departed, I'll talk to town. It'll it'll be great. Go to a hunting We'll do it all. Don't think about pink elephants. See now that look what I've done to you. All right, he's Josh Applebaum, I'm Ron Flatter. More props ahead for you betting or otherwise, And here's a prop Why not? Tune in again for another episode of the Everything Guy to Sports Betting podcast from v SN

My friend Josh Applebaum. Of course, we've been doing these lessons for some time. If this is your first time visiting us. Josh is up in the Boston area, and I saw a prop bet for the Everything Guy, Josh over or under four and a half number of mentions of Boston sports teams on this lesson in the Everything Guy, do you go with the over or the under? Oh? Man, I think you know what, Ron, I'm a Conturian better. I think you would think on the surface, it's got to go over. But maybe I'll maybe I'll flip it. Maybe some short money's on the under. You can't go wrong with the Conturian under here. I'll try to limit my my Boston and Duncan Donuts references. Oh and Duncan Donuts. Yeah, well, there you go. By the way, over or under two dozen donuts that Josh will have coming to him before we get very far into the Everything Guide. We're going over with that one. Baby. We're going over, Ron Flatter with the aforementioned Josh Applebum Donuts in hand donuts and mouth donuts. Wherever you are, Josh, don't talk with your mouthful. This is a lesson. Now we're we're rolling in recording? Are you are you? Are you sufficiently satiated with your appetite? I'm ready, I'm ready to go. Ron. Yeah, we're gonna talk today about prop bets. What is a prop that? Yeah, you hear a lot about it, Ron, What is it? I was just gonna say here. Prop bets really have become so popular. We've heard about them, especially around the super Bowl, and you see all these fun things about will Team A and the super Bowl score more points than Lebron James in a basketball game the same day, things like that. But prop bets are no longer limited to the first Sunday in Februar wearing. That's so true round and they've really exploded, And we'll get to it in a little bit, you know, talking about kind of the certain times of year where prop betting just absolutely explodes. And the Super Bowl is the number one time of year where you just see a massive influx of casual betters that are just entertained and just you know, you kind of think of prop betting as a fun way to make watching the super Bowl or a big event um that much more entertaining. But really they're available all year round. They're getting bigger and bigger each year, and really we're gonna gonna do today is kind of talk strategies and talk um kind of pull back the curtain in terms of how are you know, best times a year to bet props, best prop situations to target, where's smart money? How to identify smart money on a prop BET's a lot to get to it today, Ron, and looking forward to it, it occurs to me, Josh that the sharp money in prop bets could come from daily fantasy players because we see so much of individual statistics being built into prop bets. Is that true? That is so true? Roun. Yeah, you know, we gotta give our DFS guys a lot of credit because daily fantasy sports, you know, you really saw it get popularized, you know, kind of twenty tens, early twenty tens up to and once you saw kind of the stigma of betting kind of disappear, once DraftKings fan duel, daily fantasy bettors took the stigma away, help to legalize sports betting. But what's cool with prop betting is that, you know, we know, okay, what is a problem. A prop bet is short for a propositional bet. You know, we kind of just say props for short. That's kind of the terminal here in terms of vernacular, but it's also known as kind of an exotic bet, and what it is is UM. Basically, it's any kind of bet that is outside of the conventional spread, money line, or over under that isn't tied to the outcome of the game and the final score. So kind of what you're doing is you're trying to identify specific matchups or situations where either you're betting on a player. Uh. And it makes it fun because it's a different way to bet on a game. You know, maybe you may not like the spread or the total or the money line, but you say it mayn I really like Aaron Rodgers overpassing yards, you know, three only five and apt because you know he's been hot, he's playing a bad porous worst past defense in the league, the Detroit Lions, whoever it may be. UM. But again, we've really got to give credit to the DFS community because, uh, betting on players is something they popularize because obviously you're setting a lineup when you're playing Daily Fantasy, you're trying to have most points scored in your lineup compared to all the other bettors. You're competing against. But that really got it started with betting on players. So we'll talk player props today. We'll also talk just you know, novelty entertainment props overall. But again, our DFS guys really got the ball rolling with individual player props. And long before DFS, prop bets were around, maybe not in the numbers they are now, but we talked about the Super Bowl and if you really think about it, if you go back thirty forty years, depending on when you're hearing this, it was around that time when prop bets really germinated, right, Yeah, this is true round And I was funny because I was born in eighty seven. I remember my dad ball went through Buckner a little roller up around first gets the legs behind that. My mom was pregnant. Comes tonight. My dad tortured Red Sox fan. We broke the curse, you know. Uh, bunch of years later, but um, yeah, and that nineteen eighties six Super Bowl. This, uh is kind of just researching for my book. There everything got to sports betting, just props in general. In the eighties, prop bets really kind of got big during the Super Bowl because bettors, uh you know, Oddsmaker especially at the Westgate MGM. They wanted to offer more bets for casual betters to take advantage of. And this is a crazy story. Ron, I'm gonna ask you, where were you when the refrigerator, uh Perry scored that touchdown? And do you know the backstory behind that prop bet with the fridge scoring? Well, yeah, I mean and of course there's the whole thing about Walter Payton never having scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl and there was the anger about that because the fridge did. And so I was in Auraville, California watching the game. Actually it's the only Super Bowl I've I've been either ben two or watched every Super Bowl except Super Bowl one. And I was alive but just hadn't didn't watch it, and that's Super Bowl. I actually fell asleep during the game. Now, the way the game went that you could you wouldn't blame me. So I don't know that I actually saw the fridge score that live. Well what's crazy round is uh you know? And it's funny too how things work out because Jimmy Viccaro was working with the MGM at that time and now he's obviously uh our prize and the Steam oddsmaker at the South Point. But um, Jimmy Macaro back in the day nine six, they're starting to again. You got Rember. Prop bets were nothing before this time, unheard of. Basically you can only bet spread money line over under. What they did was they put up a prop bet, will the Fridge uh score a touchdown in the game, And it opened at fifty to one, massive payout if you want to take a shot in it, and it got hit so hard by a lot of just recreational betters for fun. Wouldn't be crazy if he scored the you know, the Fridge had been used as a fullback, you know, throughout the season, and it it's so hard open fifty to one got down to eight to one, and Jimmy Vikarl said he kind of went nuts when the Fridge scored and just kind of threw his hands up in the air because the MGM on that one player on lost fifty dollars with everyone betting on the Fridge to score a lot of them getting insane closing line value if they got a fifty two to one. And then really since that time, props have just exploded and really just odds makers across the market, uh in Vegas, you know, the global market, so many different props, and it kind of seems like every year more and more props anything you can bet on on the super Bowl, and um, it's just been crazy with more books getting more and more creative through the years, and there's so much pressure on the bookmakers to actually write new props. I know, it's like doing a creative writing assignment. There's thirty five pages of them at places in some shops and you're you're just waiting through them. But I say better, Okay, So we get it from the bookmaker's point of view, From what about from the better's point of view? You can bet on everything, as you mentioned, from players statistics and the comparison between the Super Bowl and other sports and other games, to the length of the national anthem and the coin toss at the beginning of the game. Yeah, it's just incredible. And you know, one thing we would want to mention to our visa listeners here is that you know, again it's all about discipline and identifying value because you know, Ron, it's crazy. I get to the super Bowl and you know, you have that two week lead up and I'm just so excited about it and everyone else is too, and you see so many props every single day, more and more come out. There's hundreds to choose from, so uh as a microcosm kind of the Super Bowl and just prop betting in general, try not to have a million prop bets all over the place, because you can easily fall into a situation where you just see value everywhere you look and you bet way too many of them, and you know, you kind of start betting ones you lean on and you like, and you're not getting a great numbers. So again, it's easy to get undisciplined bet a ton of them, just trying to you know, stick to limiting your bets. Overall. You'd hate to, you know, maybe win the super Bowl spread or the total and then you know, go to in five with your props and kind of throw it all the way. That's that's kind of the worst thing that can happen overall. But yeah, you know we're talking novelty props. The national anthem will go over, you know, two minutes in five seconds, the color of the gatorade, the first commercial we gotta mention to ron. You know, especially with prop bets, they're all over the place, but you gotta do a little little research and a little homework to find out where you can get down on these prop bets, because um, in Vegas, Ron, isn't it true that you know some Vegas sports books don't allow some of these weird novelty prop bets based on the Gaming Commission. Yeah, there, And they are the ones where you could have some argument over what's going on. For instance, I remember seeing one would Patrick Mahomes throw a ball left handed and then you get down to what was it a throw? Was it a pitch? Was it? So you don't have that opportunity, or you might see, okay, will he wears something on his Jim McMann while he wears something on his headband was a thing back in the day. You wouldn't see that in Las Vegas. But you do the coin toss, and that's one I don't know about betting the coin toss yet. How how much of a degenerate do you have to be to bet the coin toss? So what's crazy to me? Ron? If you take one lesson from this episode, hope you take a lot of lessons, but one for sure is in your life, never bet the coin toss. So, uh, number one, I think it's a very easy one where number one, you can just you know, bet it, and immediately before the game even starts, the thought processes, I got a chance. It's it can only be heads or tails. Hopefully I win, and right off the bat, before the game even starts, you know I've already cashed a ticket there. However, you gotta remember, and this is this is just the crazy part about betting. You always gotta be um, you gotta you gotta remember. The juice on both sides of the coin flip is minus juice. So it might be you know, heads minus one oh five, tales minus one oh two, or heads minus one oh seven tales minus one oh three. And what does that mean. It means that you don't have a true fifty chance of winning that that coin flip. So you know, the oddsmakers they of this coin flip because no matter what, they're guaranteed to make money based on the juice flip, both sides pay. So don't ever bet the coin flip. If you're gonna do it, okay, you know, have fun, hope you win, bet a low amount, but know that right off the bat it is totally uh not in your favorite to bet a coin flip when you're laying minus juice on both sides. Yeah, don't shoot the whole pocket full of money or even I mean anything on the coin to a long, long day, just you know, hold your fire, all right. So let's give some tips now as far as public versus sharp plays on props. And it almost sounds comical to say sharp plays on props, Well, there are there are, all right. So what are some of the tips that you could offer here? Josh? Yeah, so I think you know, obviously, any kind of prop that you're gonna bet, do your research, do your homework. If you can't identify an edge, And again, never bet based on opinion, Never bet with your heart. Never say you know I'm gonna take uh, you know, Aaron Rodgers over a certain amount of yards or touchdowns just because you're a Packers fan. Do it because you like them. Matchup where you've got a good number. But in general, a couple of things you should always know when you're going into prop betting. Number one similar to um public betters, you know, and again this gets into that concherry and where iron but the similar to that. Seriously, what's the overron concherry in this this podacst have done that for a problem. Yeah, we already got a couple now, or at least one. But um, I think the thing here that you gotta remember is, you know, public betters love betting props because they're fun. And as a result, when they're really fun, what do you do? You have that public bias where when you're betting a regular game, you'll lead you lean toward favorites home teams overs. Same thing with prop bets, A lot of prop bets. When you have an over under of you know whoever it may be, Russell Wilson over under you two point five yards, there's an innate bias in a predisposition for recreational betters to always want to bet the over. So what that means is and again why because it's more fun to root for over. It's more fun to root for more things than less things. And what does this mean? It means that in general, just you know, generally speaking, doesn't mean this is always the case, but there are values to betting unders in prop bets, So keep that in mind, you know, you look at also, I remember Jimmy Garoppolo and that Super Bowl against the Chiefs. You know his passing yards opened up at I think like close to like two forty two fifty, and sharps just hammered that under and it got way down maybe fifteen twenty yards when it closed. So generally speaking, any kind of prop that that's falling is usually clearly indicative of sharp money, and usually sharp's will target these props, hit them early at their highest mark, or what they'll do is kind of wait, knowing that the public will bet the over, and they'll wait out for the public to artificially inflate that number, get it up as high as it can go, and then hit that under at the highest point and try to, you know, go the other way. But remember public loves overs. When you're betting props, you should always keep that in mind. What about in terms of other sports beyond the Super Bowl, Like, let's say some of the ones we see early before a baseball season, I mean to some degree they linger into baseball season as well, but the winds and the losses and the home runs and the batting average and the strikeouts and the saves and things like that. Yeah, I think similar sort of thing around leaning towards overs, especially teams that were coming off a really good year or players who had a really good year. So you know a guy Mike Trout when he hits forty five Homer's uh. You know, automatically the public is gonna want to take the over no matter what the number is that the odds makers set for the upcoming season. So you know, star players, big name teams leaning towards these overs, and you also get value on taking overs on bad teams and bad players as well, because just like that Biolo sell high mentality, you're always looking for values. So a lot of those, you know, bad teams or players who had a down year. You always gotta remember betting it's all about regression in the end. You know, you have a great year, you're probably gonna come down a little bit. Next year you have a terrible year, you know, chances are you might do a little bit better than next year. So it's that by low, it's that se high mentality that can really benefit you in betting props. What about in circumstances like the first to do something in a game, the first to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl, the first to score three point basket in the NBA Finals, something along those lines. In an all Star game, maybe the first to hit a home run in baseball? How do you look at those where you have plus money on pretty much everybody and every possibility. Yeah, so tons of value there on. I think one that's really gotten popular, especially in a lot of primetime games, to see it like Thursday night football, Sunday Night football, Monday Night football. Who will be the first touchdown? Score? So oftentimes you know, the best player on the field will be a favorite, but he could be plus five hundred plus seven hundred plus eight hundred, um. However, there's gonna be a good amount of guys who are in the you know, plus fifteen hundred plus two thousand range, so kind of, you know, I know a lot of sharp guys. They'll kind of take a flyer and maybe bet a couple of guys who are you know, plus twelve hundred plus eighteen hundred plus twenty five hundred, and if you can hit one of these again, you're gonna have a huge payout overall. Um. But I think one thing to remember as well when we're talking about public tendencies and betting props is that the public really really flocks to plus money props where they can get a big payouts. So this kind of goes into the parlay conversation. You know, when you're a recreational better, Uh, you want to make a lot of money quickly. You want to become a millionaire overnight. The truth is that's impossible, and uh, if only that were the case, we all wish it was. But betting is hard. You know, you can win if you bet with your head not your heart, and you make smart bets and you beat the closing line. And in my opinion, you'll stay on the sharp side and try to bet against the public. But remember that the public will always like these plus money props where they can turn ten dollars into a hundred or ten dollars into you know, fifteen hundred dollars. So I think it's important to kind of flip it the other way, uh, and remember that, you know, betting on some decent minus umbers you know, has a lot of value overall. Like I always think in the Super Bowl, I kind of I do this every single year, bet no safety and no overtime. You know, it's happened here and there, but most of the time it doesn't happen. And if you can get a safety, uh, you know, usually the public always say yes to a safety or yes to overtime because you're getting plus five you know, plus a hun h plus five hundred plus a thousand plus fifteen hundred. You're saying, sure, I'll put ten bucks on it, and I can you know, turn into a big amount of money. But whise guys love betting that no, you know, minus five hundred minus six hundred, So the public is always gonna fly to those plus money payouts. A lot of sharps will be more than willing to bet some of these minus numbers as long as they're not ridiculously minus um. And you gotta remember, ron, how do the limits work with props? Can you I bet a ton of money on props or what's the deal? How do the oddsmakers work that? Generally you can't because the props are such a risky proposition as it were, that there are lower limits on props than you will have on the games. It's actually I think that's what you gotta remember to these low lower limits, like you know, I think the Super Bowl they're usually about a thousand, and most books maybe closer to uh, you know, um, when the when the game starts to get up around two thousand depending on the prof bet overall. So you can't you can't imagine you've got to become a millionaire betting on props. So it's it's again, it's more of us. I consider a supplementary type bet to kind of help pad your bankroll when you can find good options overall. Um, but run? Did you also know this one? I love too? Uh? There are situations where the oddsmakers will release um one sided prop bets where instead of a yes no option, they only have yes at a certain number, or they only have no at a certain number. Does that ever scare you? Because that always scares me. It's something that's illegal in Nevada, for instance. You'll see to see in other states around the country. You in Nevada, the law is you have to have a winning opportunity on every bet. So if you just have a yes and the answers no and you can't cash on the no, then that means it would be illegal in Nevada. But it does scare me unless it's one of those things where you're being offered this just as an enticement to come aboard and sign up for a particular app or something like that. But generally, no, I stay away from those. I agree with your on yeah, if it's something crazy like an odds boost or a sign up or kind of a fun bet to get your foot in the door and maybe get a bonus something like that. And again with sports betting legalization, you're you're seeing so many more opportunities like that. So I agree with you. But yeah, my rule of thumb is, uh, I try to never bet one side of props because to me, it raises a red flag immediately. You know, why is the why is the book only offering one option? It tells me they're trying to goat me into betting something, even though, um, you know, kind of my chances of winning our our miniscule usually in those situations. But um, and that kind of leads to again these public situations where public is gonna want to lean yes on a lot of these props because you know, again psychologically you're more inclined to say yes than no. So a lot of sharps will lean on a lot of nose in general. So exactly right, it's risk reward, um, But always remember bring that. You know, the public likes overs, they like saying yes. They want big payouts. Sharps know that they can go the other way, lean on some nose, lean on some unders um in lace, decent minus numbers, as long as they're not crazy. But there are props too, Like we saw Joe Burrow in the NFL draft. Yeah, let me bring you tell me asked. Let me ask you that about because that was a whole another area I want you to jump into. The NFL Draft, the NBA Draft. We see a lot of props here, and I think it's a much more educated process for the public because I think the public pays more attention to that than maybe these will of the whisp bets on the Super Bowl. Because you followed college football all season long, you followed college basketball, etcetera. So what do you look at in terms of the draft, in terms of sharps versus the public, and in terms where the money can be made in the best most strategic bets are to be placed. Yeah. So, I obviously everyone loves the Super Bowl and that's the time of year when the most are available, and it's just crazy problem madness. But I personally and would suggest to a lot of listeners identify the NFL Draft because I found a lot of success in the NFL draft. Think there's a lot of value their overall. Reading the tea leaves, looking at odds movement. One suggestion would be, you know, identify a prop and and see where maybe you know players over under, where to get drafted over under, you know, pick five and a half, See where the juice moves. If you can monitor juice movement and see that it's you know, five and a half even, and then it gets to five and a half under minus one twenty under minus one fifty under minus two hundred. If you can read that juice movement, that's typically gonna be sharp money. And again you don't want to lay a minus two hundred, but if you can kind of catch that before it moves, before the price gets worse, a lot of value their overall. But we do have to remind our our our listeners here that you know, things that are definitely almost you figure it has to be guaranteed to happen. Really it seems like easy, easy money, free money, but it's really not worth it in the end. Like again, and Joe Burrow, he just mentioned, you know, he was gonna be you know, the odds on number one pick, and he was the number one pick, and you could bet on Joe Burrow to go first overall, and you know everyone knew and thought and he ended up going first overall. But you had to lay minus ten thousand, minus you know, fifteen thousand, these massive, massive numbers. So what you know, why is that important? It's because even though you think something's bound to happen, there's no value to betting it because number one, you gotta lay a ton to to win it, and the prices and the limits are so low that you're really not gonna make any money overall. And then on the off chance that something crazy happens ron boom, you're gonna lose it all. So there's no value to lend to, you know, betting those those those crazy, crazy favorites that you think half to happen, because there's no guarantee even if you think there is. Yeah, that's the thing. I mean, minus fifteen thousand means you're betting fifteen thousand to make a hundred dollars. Really you really want to do that, And there's a reason they call it bridge jumping. Well, let's not do any further bridge jumping. Let's start thinking about on the other side, talking about where you're shopping for props, so you can certainly do that. There's plenty of them out there, especially when you're around big events, and so many of them are competing with one another. We'll talk about that. Bargain hunting is next as we continue our lesson in prop bets on the Everything Guide. It's The Everything Guide to Sports Betting VSA in podcast with Josh Applebaum, the author of the book by the same name. By the way, Ron Flatter here, So let's shop, Josh, let's shop for numbers. Give us a primer on how to do that with prop bets. Yeah, so props are really really important in terms of shopping for the best line because when you're betting, you know, kind of just a regular NFL game or NBA game, you may see, you know, the line be you know, a half point between one book or another, or maybe one point on a total, but usually they're pretty close to the overall market. Kind of just the age we live in with the Internet and the global market, it's pretty even. You don't want to be a book that's way off from where everyone else is because you're gonna get hit pretty hard. But with these prop bets, you can see a huge difference across the market in terms of numbers overall. So we always talk about no matter where, if it's props or regular conventional bet betting, have multiple outs, shop for the best line. What does that mean? It means that if you want to succeed long term when you're betting on sports, it's not just about picking the right number and picking the right side, or not just picking the right side, it's picking the right number. So you need to access to multiple books round because I remember when I first started, you know, I was young. I had one book. I love that one book. I had a bookmarked, you know, I had it in my phone. It was easy to put in a bet or take out a bet. But I learned very quickly that you know, there are different sports books, they have different numbers, and as a result, you want to be able to place your bet at the book that gives you the best number overall. So you know, for example, you know, when we're talking about the NFL draft, you can look at position totals, odds um on teams taking a specific player or um exact outcome od's first player to be drafted at their position head to head matchups, Will they be a first round pick, just limitless opportunities overall, but you may see situations. I remember with two Otaga vloa uh coming out of Alabama. You know, he got hurt and there was a big discrepancy of where he would get drafted. So you know, one book had two was over under at you know two and a half. One book had three and a half. You know, one book had two and a half at you know, juicing up the over. One had you know three and a half, juicing up the over as well. You know you have different numbers overall. So why is that important. It's because if you have identified an edge, you know, that could be the difference between a win or a lost betting it at one book versus another. So paying a better juice, getting a better number on a position that's really really critically important. Um, and that's what's really gonna you know, kind of turn turn losses into winds, pushes into wins. So make sure you take the time when you first get started open up your multiple accounts, set up your sports books, you know, get your live odds page set up with all the books you have an account at on your page. Because shopping for the best line will really take you from a you know, beginning better to a more you know, advanced and sharper better to long term and talk to me a little bit, Josh about deductive reasoning and how you do apply that in your shopping. Yeah. I think this is important too, because you know, there are situations like I'll give you another example talking about the NFL draft. You know you had a head to head DeAndre Swift and uh Jamal Taylor out of Wisconsin. You know who would be drafted Jonathan Taylor? Yeah, who would be drafted head to head? You know, Swift was a it was kind of like a fifty fifty bet and Swift was like minus one twenty and Taylor's plus one twenty. But if you look at their over under draft position, Swift was like twenty eight and a half and Taylor was like thirty seven and a half. So in terms of deductive reason you can kind of play one prop off another. So you know, if I see that Swift is only a slight slight slate almost fifty uh favorite, but yet he's expected to be drafted ten positions higher than Taylor, what does that mean? Boom? I'm liking that minus one twenty to take Taylor that had to had to be drafted first overall. So that's another thing. Play props off each other, look at one prop, see what another is, and you can kind of again read the tea leads. You use your deductive reasoning to gain insight and hopefully make a smart play. I'm gonna ask you this too. Well. In fact, we we had to discussed talking about this part. But I want to run this by you, and that would be the correlated parlay theory and not necessarily as a parlay play, but maybe you just make separate bets. Going back to the example within game props, if you think that a team or a quarterback is going to pass for higher than the yardage that's been set for him, do you then also think that the game may go over because if you think he's gonna pass for a lot of yards, you think maybe they're going to score a lot of points, and that ties in. Do you then make a correlated play, either as a parlay or separate bets or do you hedge one off the other. It's a great question. I think you know it would depend on so in theory, you would want to, you know, corral of parlay. If if you can uh see an advantage where kind of two bets line up in the same direction In terms of hedging, you know, I think depends on the number you've got and if you're getting plus money and you can guarantee yourself a profit, I think that's really important. But another thing with prop betting is like when you're looking at over under touchdowns, over under passing yardage, look at the total for the full game odds because you know, leaning on a lot of games with high totals is very important because if the odds makers are expecting more points to be scored, then how do you score those points? Typically with more offensive play. So you know, if Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson both have an over under passing yards of maybe three hundred, but yet the total in that Packers game is forty eight and the total in the um the Seahawks game is maybe forty boom, I'm gonna lean more to a lot of these offensive prop in games with high total So I think, um, that's really important as well. Uh. And then Roun, did you also know that not only for individual games can you bet a lot of player prop bets, but also season long prop bets, which absolutely ever take a shot. There have on baseball. I've done that. With baseball. We mentioned the home runs and the and the winds and things like that. I've done that. But as far, I'm generally not a big prop bet player. I tend to do it maybe a little bit more at Super Bowl time, and sometimes I'll do so that in the circumstances where I'm going to then in game just on the sides and the total maybe hedge play against it in that sort of a way. Uh, sometimes I get myself chasing my own tail after a while, But generally, no, I mean, other than some very traditional conservative plays, I don't tend to jump into those. I kind of lean with you on that one round, because you know, number one, you've got to remember that, you know a lot of these season long prop bets you gotta bet during the off season, you know, before the season there's your money exactly. They're kind of like the future's bets. Number one, you have to know that, Okay, I have the patience to remember that these bets are not gonna cash win or lose, you know, for months and months on end. So number one, you gotta be patient, you gotta be disciplined, but also you gotta have liquidity in your bank roll because if you spend all your money you know, off season, the off season, it's kind of tough because you're so excited for the next you know, season to begin, and you can kind of, you know, just get so excited that you just, um, you can't help but bet all these all these bets beforehand. But you can get in trouble because if you've got too many of them and you tie your bankroll, then really you've hurt yourself because you don't have enough liquidity and money to bet just regular individual games once the season begins throughout the season. So that's another big part of it. Ron Um and also just one thing I will stay with baseball, big fan of betting a lot of picture over under k props. There's some value there, especially if you can get situations where you can arbitrage where you know, one book may have UM whoever maybe Garrett Cole, you know over under seven a half strikeouts at plus one oh three and the under seven half is plus one oh two plus one oh five. You can you can see situations like that as well, where you can guarantee yourself a profit. UM And I think that's something to take into account. You've seen that in NFL drafts as well as player props throughout the season. One of the things I look at is doing things on an individual game basis along those lines more so than season long, particularly if you're not getting good plus odds in the case of a prop bet. I don't like playing season win totals. I know that's a separate show in a separate topic, but a large reason I don't do so is I'll put dollars in, let's say in March, and I don't see any kind of possible recovery of that until October. The value of the dollar is going to go down in that time, So you're not just betting into the big and the minus money that might be going along with that on and over under, but you're also betting against inflation. So you need a little bit more, a little bit more bang for your buck coming into that that I'm willing to go ahead and jump into. So I know I've thrown water on something that's very popular, but that's part of how I think. No, I think that's important, and I think our goal, you know, as always with this podcast, ron is just to be honest with the listeners and the viewers and everyone who who tunes into bees, and you know, we we like to let you know that, Okay, our lays a very very fun and just you know, a really popular bet, but there are detriments to it. They're a big house advantage. The same thing with prop bets. Prop bets are super super popular every single year and get bigger and bigger, but there are detriments to it as well. So I think just you know, as listeners, knowing that you know, we're gonna shoot it straight with you and let you know the pros and cons and in the end, remember you're the final arborder of your bank. Oh you place what you believe is the smartest bet you can make. But just knowing that prop bets are great to me, they're a supplementary bet. Um. I do know guys who bet a lot props and just that's their thing and they do well at it, which you know, all the power to you. But overall, just you know, kind of just as you're not gonna make every better parlay bet, don't make every bet, you make a prop bet as well, and I think you'll be okay long term. And just if you had the prop bed about Boston mentions at the top of the show. I think you came in at one. I think you came in at one a very very very stacked deck. I think you really were. We're actually influenced by the fact that this prop bet was hanging over your head apple bomb exactly. There was a lot of late steam coming in on that under. I tell you what, once I got called out. See if you never mentioned it, Ron, if if you tweeted it and I didn't know the number, then I would have flown way over. But yeah, that's okay. Next time we'll we'll we'll have way too many Boston references. I'll talk the departed, I'll talk to town. It'll it'll be great. Go to a hunting We'll do it all. Don't think about pink elephants. See now that look what I've done to you. All right, he's Josh Applebaum, I'm Ron Flatter. More props ahead for you betting or otherwise, And here's a prop Why not? Tune in again for another episode of the Everything Guy to Sports Betting podcast from v SN