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What's Next for Oil Prices and Fuel Subsidies

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Brent crude oil prices have swung sharply this year. They spiked past $110 in March, fell back to around $70 by July on US-Iran peace-talk optimism, then surged again past $100 through August and September as fighting between the US and Iran resumed.

In Malaysia, unsubsidised RON97 and RON95 petrol prices are rising by 20 sen per litre, and unsubsidised diesel by 15 sen, from mid-September. With the war dragging on far longer than most expected, should fuel prices in Malaysia already be higher than they are?

Woon Khai Jhek, Senior Economist at RAM Rating Services, tells us what's keeping oil prices contained, what the outlook looks like, and what it all means for Malaysia's economy.

We get into:

  • What's driving oil price swings: The war-related supply shocks behind this year's price spikes, including a US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983.

  • Oil supply: Whether US control over Venezuela's oil following Maduro's removal could meaningfully boost global supply, and what other responses, from OPEC+ to US shale, are actually moving the needle.

  • Malaysia's balancing act: Whether the country gains more from higher oil prices through Petronas and petroleum-related taxes than it loses through subsidies and import costs.

  • Budget 2027: What to expect and the general outlook for Malaysia's economy heading into the rest of the year.

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