Asia is no longer rising in unison. According to Nomura’s latest Asia Macro Outlook 2026: Mind the Gap, a sharp "North-South divide" is emerging, driven by the AI supercycle and shifting supply chains. While tech-heavy economies ride the wave, others risk being left behind.



Euben Paracuelles, Chief ASEAN Economist at Nomura, joins us to unpack this bifurcation. 

He explains why Malaysia is positioned as a clear "winner" with a forecasted 5.2% GDP growth, the potential impact of US transshipment tariffs, and his contrarian prediction that Bank Negara Malaysia may be the only central bank in the region (outside Japan) to hike rates in 2026.



We discuss:


The North-South Divide: Why Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia are decoupling from laggards like Thailand and Indonesia.


The AI Supercycle: Why Nomura believes this is a sustainable structural shift, not a bubble.


The 'Second China Shock': How overcapacity in China is flooding markets with cheap goods and who is most vulnerable.


Malaysia’s Outlook: The catalysts behind the 5.2% growth forecast, including the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone.


A Contrarian Call: Why financial imbalances could trigger a Bank Negara rate hike in late 2026.



Image Credit: Shutterstock

Asia is no longer rising in unison. According to Nomura’s latest Asia Macro Outlook 2026: Mind the Gap, a sharp "North-South divide" is emerging, driven by the AI supercycle and shifting supply chains. While tech-heavy economies ride the wave, others risk being left behind.Euben Paracuelles, Chief ASEAN Economist at Nomura, joins us to unpack this bifurcation.&nbsp;He explains why Malaysia is positioned as a clear "winner" with a forecasted 5.2% GDP growth, the potential impact of US transshipment tariffs, and his contrarian prediction that Bank Negara Malaysia may be the only central bank in the region (outside Japan) to hike rates in 2026.We discuss:<ul><li>The North-South Divide: Why Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia are decoupling from laggards like Thailand and Indonesia.</li><li>The AI Supercycle: Why Nomura believes this is a sustainable structural shift, not a bubble.</li><li>The 'Second China Shock': How overcapacity in China is flooding markets with cheap goods and who is most vulnerable.</li><li>Malaysia’s Outlook: The catalysts behind the 5.2% growth forecast, including the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone.</li><li>A Contrarian Call: Why financial imbalances could trigger a Bank Negara rate hike in late 2026.</li></ul>Image Credit: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/integrated-semiconductor-microchip-malaysia-flag-industry-2368446293?trackingId=285f001f-6722-423f-ad85-7ee80b70073f">Shutterstock</a>

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