We discuss energy market outlook with Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of energy market intelligence. We begin with the crude and refined product bottleneck created by the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and what it means for Asia and Europe. We then delve into the supply and demand responses since the Iran war began, especially with the way China and the US are dealing with the fallout. Vandana is bearish the supply side outlook even if the Strait were to re-open as part of another temporary ceasefire. We conclude by discussing the lessons from this crisis, from strategic reserves to wider supply base, from regional cooperation on resilient grids, storage, and pipelines to accelerate renewable energy production capacities. Vandana does not see the future as either/or; nations have to increase investments in the entire energy stack.

Clarification: Vandana notes that crude futures six months out and 12 months out are almost $15 and $20 lower respectively.