In the year’s first podcast, we examine the factors that could help overcome ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty, helping achieve trend growth outcomes in the US, China, and Singapore. The year has begun under the shadow of a highly assertive US pushing its hegemonic agenda. Both externally and domestically, Donald Trump has taken a largely imperialist posture, subject to hardly any checks from the other arms of the government. His goals include achieving energy and rare earth material security, forcing neighbours in the Americas into acquiescence, curtailing China’s power, and supporting right wing regimes worldwide. We are however doubtful that his actions would secure the House of Representatives in November. Beyond the political dynamic, short of an AI bubble burst, the US economy is poised to grow in line with trend this year, led by consumption. A weak job market and easing inflation pressure would keep the Fed cutting the policy rate more, drama around Fed Chair notwithstanding. We worry about the erosion of institutional integrity in the US, but the ramifications are in the medium term, with investors likely to remain enthusiastic about holding US assets in the near term. On China, we recognise both its struggles with the property sector and the tailwind emanating from an impressive tech wave. The spillover from China’s expanding manufacturing base is positive for trade-oriented economies, contrary to the narrative of predatory excess capacity. On Singapore, we see a number of levers in place to propel growth this year and beyond.

 

In the year&rsquo;s first podcast, we examine the factors that could help overcome ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty, helping achieve trend growth outcomes in the US, China, and Singapore. The year has begun under the shadow of a highly assertive US pushing its hegemonic agenda. Both externally and domestically, Donald Trump has taken a largely imperialist posture, subject to hardly any checks from the other arms of the government. His goals include achieving energy and rare earth material security, forcing neighbours in the Americas into acquiescence, curtailing China&rsquo;s power, and supporting right wing regimes worldwide. We are however doubtful that his actions would secure the House of Representatives in November. Beyond the political dynamic, short of an AI bubble burst, the US economy is poised to grow in line with trend this year, led by consumption. A weak job market and easing inflation pressure would keep the Fed cutting the policy rate more, drama around Fed Chair notwithstanding. We worry about the erosion of institutional integrity in the US, but the ramifications are in the medium term, with investors likely to remain enthusiastic about holding US assets in the near term. On China, we recognise both its struggles with the property sector and the tailwind emanating from an impressive tech wave. The spillover from China&rsquo;s expanding manufacturing base is positive for trade-oriented economies, contrary to the narrative of predatory excess capacity. On Singapore, we see a number of levers in place to propel growth this year and beyond.
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Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

DBS Economics & Strategy

Kopi Time E169 - Upside to the US, China, and Singapore

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/42d3c9bc-a705-4702-b16c-b3d3009c0824/transcript