We welcome back Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to Kopi Time. We focus on some recent work by Arvind and Shoumitro Chatterjee (see article here), in which they argue that China’s continued dominance in low-skill export sectors reflects not just efficiency, but deliberate policy choices that prevent poorer countries from climbing the development ladder. We talk about their findings, nuances to the conclusions, implication  for trade and exchange rate policy, geopolitical considerations, and delve into a few issues beyond the article, including China’s rapid climb up the technology value-addition ladder. We also touch in Arvind’s new book,  A Sixth Of Humanity: Independent India's Development Odyssey, co-authored with Devesh Kapur.

We welcome back Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to Kopi Time. We focus on some recent work by Arvind and Shoumitro Chatterjee (see article <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-manufacturing-surplus-costs-for-low-middle-income-countries-by-shoumitro-chatterjee-1-and-arvind-subramanian-2025-10">here</a>), in which they argue that China&rsquo;s continued dominance in low-skill export sectors reflects not just efficiency, but deliberate policy choices that prevent poorer countries from climbing the development ladder. We talk about their findings, nuances to the conclusions, implication&nbsp; for trade and exchange rate policy, geopolitical considerations, and delve into a few issues beyond the article, including China&rsquo;s rapid climb up the technology value-addition ladder. We also touch in Arvind&rsquo;s new book, &nbsp;A Sixth Of Humanity: Independent India's Development Odyssey, co-authored with Devesh Kapur.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

DBS Economics & Strategy

Kopi Time E164: The “new China shock” with Arvind Subramanian 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/32415a33-8fad-44a9-a176-b395002c2620/transcript

Timothy Adams, President and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, brings his deep experience and expertise to Kopi Time. We begin with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and his potential approach to monetary policy, including the challenges of balancing political pressure with institutional independence. We then discuss the state of monetary and fiscal policy, risks characterising the outlook, financial stability concerns, and the politics and economics around the USD and stablecoins. We end with Tim's views on the evolving geopolitical landscape and the need for middle powers to seek new partnerships and pragmatic positions on matters of national security and trade.

Timothy Adams, President and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, brings his deep experience and expertise to Kopi Time. We begin with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and his potential approach to monetary policy, including the challenges of balancing political pressure with institutional independence. We then discuss the state of monetary and fiscal policy, risks characterising the outlook, financial stability concerns, and the politics and economics around the USD and stablecoins.&nbsp;We end with Tim's views on the evolving geopolitical landscape and the need for middle powers to seek new partnerships and pragmatic positions on matters of national security and trade.

Kopi Time E171 - IIF's Tim Adams on the Fed, US Fiscal, & Financial Stability

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/7b080880-5a3f-492c-a01e-b3ee001fb4b3/transcript

Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, returns to Kopi Time to walk us through various geopolitical flashpoints. We begin with the US’s recent intervention in Venezuela and the cohesiveness of the strategy at play. Heavy on economic coercion and light on ground-level involvement, to what extent US can achieve control on the region remains to be seen, although the goal of reducing China’s influence is being achieved to some extent. We then touch on what lies ahead for other central and Latin American leaders who are not aligned with the White House. Next, Greenland, where Professor Haykel does not see military intervention, nor does he see the fraying of the NATO. We then move on to the various moving parts in the Middle-East, from Iran to Saudi Arabia to UAE to Israel to Syria. There are few academics like Professor Haykel who can parse through these complex issues with such ease. A tour de force.  

Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, returns to Kopi Time to walk us through various geopolitical flashpoints. We begin with the US&rsquo;s recent intervention in Venezuela and the cohesiveness of the strategy at play. Heavy on economic coercion and light on ground-level involvement, to what extent US can achieve control on the region remains to be seen, although the goal of reducing China&rsquo;s influence is being achieved to some extent. We then touch on what lies ahead for other central and Latin American leaders who are not aligned with the White House. Next, Greenland, where Professor Haykel does not see military intervention, nor does he see the fraying of the NATO. We then move on to the various moving parts in the Middle-East, from Iran to Saudi Arabia to UAE to Israel to Syria. There are few academics like Professor Haykel who can parse through these complex issues with such ease. A tour de force. &nbsp;

Kopi Time E170: Bernard Haykel on foreign policy in the Americas and the Middle-East

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/4b13d434-275f-4030-b1f4-b3e000139e62/transcript

In the year’s first podcast, we examine the factors that could help overcome ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty, helping achieve trend growth outcomes in the US, China, and Singapore. The year has begun under the shadow of a highly assertive US pushing its hegemonic agenda. Both externally and domestically, Donald Trump has taken a largely imperialist posture, subject to hardly any checks from the other arms of the government. His goals include achieving energy and rare earth material security, forcing neighbours in the Americas into acquiescence, curtailing China’s power, and supporting right wing regimes worldwide. We are however doubtful that his actions would secure the House of Representatives in November. Beyond the political dynamic, short of an AI bubble burst, the US economy is poised to grow in line with trend this year, led by consumption. A weak job market and easing inflation pressure would keep the Fed cutting the policy rate more, drama around Fed Chair notwithstanding. We worry about the erosion of institutional integrity in the US, but the ramifications are in the medium term, with investors likely to remain enthusiastic about holding US assets in the near term. On China, we recognise both its struggles with the property sector and the tailwind emanating from an impressive tech wave. The spillover from China’s expanding manufacturing base is positive for trade-oriented economies, contrary to the narrative of predatory excess capacity. On Singapore, we see a number of levers in place to propel growth this year and beyond.

 

In the year&rsquo;s first podcast, we examine the factors that could help overcome ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty, helping achieve trend growth outcomes in the US, China, and Singapore. The year has begun under the shadow of a highly assertive US pushing its hegemonic agenda. Both externally and domestically, Donald Trump has taken a largely imperialist posture, subject to hardly any checks from the other arms of the government. His goals include achieving energy and rare earth material security, forcing neighbours in the Americas into acquiescence, curtailing China&rsquo;s power, and supporting right wing regimes worldwide. We are however doubtful that his actions would secure the House of Representatives in November. Beyond the political dynamic, short of an AI bubble burst, the US economy is poised to grow in line with trend this year, led by consumption. A weak job market and easing inflation pressure would keep the Fed cutting the policy rate more, drama around Fed Chair notwithstanding. We worry about the erosion of institutional integrity in the US, but the ramifications are in the medium term, with investors likely to remain enthusiastic about holding US assets in the near term. On China, we recognise both its struggles with the property sector and the tailwind emanating from an impressive tech wave. The spillover from China&rsquo;s expanding manufacturing base is positive for trade-oriented economies, contrary to the narrative of predatory excess capacity. On Singapore, we see a number of levers in place to propel growth this year and beyond.
&nbsp;

Kopi Time E169 - Upside to the US, China, and Singapore

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/42d3c9bc-a705-4702-b16c-b3d3009c0824/transcript

Kopi Time E164: The “new China shock” with Arvind Subramanian

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