Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, IMF’s Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, takes us on a journey of Asia, which is facing a major challenge to its export-led growth model. With geoeconomic fragmentation intensifying, how do nations strike a balance between trade promotion and domestic demand support? From China to India, South Korea to Vietnam, what is the outlook for growth, interest rate, and exchange rate, and what are the IMF’s fiscal, monetary, and structural policy prescriptions? What are the risk scenarios, given the heightened levels of uncertainty? What about the usage of the US dollar and financial stability risks? Krishna offers valuable insights on these questions.

Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, IMF&rsquo;s Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, takes us on a journey of Asia, which is facing a major challenge to its export-led growth model. With geoeconomic fragmentation intensifying, how do nations strike a balance between trade promotion and domestic demand support? From China to India, South Korea to Vietnam, what is the outlook for growth, interest rate, and exchange rate, and what are the IMF&rsquo;s fiscal, monetary, and structural policy prescriptions? What are the risk scenarios, given the heightened levels of uncertainty? What about the usage of the US dollar and financial stability risks? Krishna offers valuable insights on these questions.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

DBS Economics & Strategy

Kopi Time E152: IMF’s Asia head Krishna Srinivasan on tariffs and the region

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/3a9e0724-5f3b-4743-a4aa-b2ce008fa948/transcript

Fiscal slippage, lower economic growth, sticky inflation, weaker dollar, steeper yield curve, financial instability; these are the key prognostications of Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar in our year-end podcast. President of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Sri is a deep thinker on macro trade strategies, and his forecasting track record is outstanding. Going into 2026, he is bearish both stocks and bonds, long vols and gold, and bearish the USD. He worries that the inevitable bursting of the AI-bubble and sticky inflation would cause stagflation and financial instability risks in the US next year. He is also concerned about the erosion of institutional strength in the US, from the central bank to the treasury to the statistical agencies. An unambiguously bleak outlook.

Fiscal slippage, lower economic growth, sticky inflation, weaker dollar, steeper yield curve, financial instability; these are the key prognostications of Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar in our year-end podcast. President of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Sri is a deep thinker on macro trade strategies, and his forecasting track record is outstanding. Going into 2026, he is bearish both stocks and bonds, long vols and gold, and bearish the USD. He worries that the inevitable bursting of the AI-bubble and sticky inflation would cause stagflation and financial instability risks in the US next year. He is also concerned about the erosion of institutional strength in the US, from the central bank to the treasury to the statistical agencies. An unambiguously bleak outlook.

Kopi Time E168 - 2026 Stagflation Risk with Komal Sri-Kumar

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/3de65e85-89f5-488e-a4f7-b3b7001ac5f7/transcript

Noah Doyle, Managing Partner at Javelin Investment Partners in Silicon Valley, with decades-long background in venture capital, joins Kopi Time to talk about tech and AI. We begin with a general discussion on the present vibe in Silicon Valley, giddy with record investments and returns. We then immediately pivot to the question of the moment, if there is an AI bubble, to which Noah offers a detailed and nuanced response, walking us through the supply and demand for AI infrastructure and products, the fund raising and capital deployment ecosystem, and dizzying valuation of AI companies, public and private. I then nudge Noah toward an issue close to his heart--if the path toward AGI through Gen AI, and if not, are there alternative paths in the making. Noah responds by discussing alternatives to Large Language Models, including symbolic logic-based AIs. We take the conversation toward innovations coming out of China and the US, which Noah tracks closely and sees the trend as a positive, mutually beneficial development. We talk about regulatory guardrails, cyber security, privacy, and ethical aspects of AI to round-up this fascinating conversation.

Noah Doyle, Managing Partner at <a href="https://www.javelinvp.com/" data-outlook-id="e937aeb4-99fa-4383-94a3-59b30b036211">Javelin Investment Partners</a> in Silicon Valley, with decades-long background in venture capital, joins Kopi Time to talk about tech and AI. We begin with a general discussion on the present vibe in Silicon Valley, giddy with record investments and returns. We then immediately pivot to the question of the moment, if there is an AI bubble, to which Noah offers a detailed and nuanced response, walking us through the supply and demand for AI infrastructure and products, the fund raising and capital deployment ecosystem, and dizzying valuation of AI companies, public and private. I then nudge Noah toward an issue close to his heart--if the path toward AGI through Gen AI, and if not, are there alternative paths in the making. Noah responds by discussing alternatives to Large Language Models, including symbolic logic-based AIs. We take the conversation toward innovations coming out of China and the US, which Noah tracks closely and sees the trend as a positive, mutually beneficial development. We talk about regulatory guardrails, cyber security, privacy, and ethical aspects of AI to round-up this fascinating conversation.

Kopi Time E167 - Noah Doyle on Tech, AI, and Bubbles

David Marsh, Chairman of OMFIF economic research group, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the UK and Europe, with his new book, “Can Europe Survive?” (Yale University Press, link here), anchoring the conversation. We begin with the current economic, political, and security-related challenges, including US tariffs, China’s industrial prowess, conflict with Russia, immigration, energy security, and the rise of the far right. David delves into his decades of experience on geoeconomics to parse through the difficulties faced by the region’s leaders. He sees an urgent need for liberalisation of capital markets, greater trade and financial linkages with Asia, and sustained efforts to bring the region closer, while at the same time respecting some of the centrifugal forces at play. Europe, according to David, faces its gravest test since the second world war; a fundamental renewal of the EU compact and international partnerships is warranted at this critical juncture.  

David Marsh, Chairman of OMFIF economic research group, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the UK and Europe, with his new book, &ldquo;Can Europe Survive?&rdquo; (Yale University Press, link <a href="https://www.amazon.sg/Can-Europe-Survive-Continent-Fractured/dp/0300273002">here</a>), anchoring the conversation. We begin with the current economic, political, and security-related challenges, including US tariffs, China&rsquo;s industrial prowess, conflict with Russia, immigration, energy security, and the rise of the far right. David delves into his decades of experience on geoeconomics to parse through the difficulties faced by the region&rsquo;s leaders. He sees an urgent need for liberalisation of capital markets, greater trade and financial linkages with Asia, and sustained efforts to bring the region closer, while at the same time respecting some of the centrifugal forces at play. Europe, according to David, faces its gravest test since the second world war; a fundamental renewal of the EU compact and international partnerships is warranted at this critical juncture. &nbsp;

Kopi Time E166: David Marsh on Europe’s Existential Challenges

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/5713dc42-3052-42f8-8ee9-b3a700a78375/transcript

Kopi Time E152: IMF’s Asia head Krishna Srinivasan on tariffs and the region

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