Happy new year! We kick off the year with a discussion on the likely impact of Trump policies on US markets, starting with the 1890s McKinley tariff narrative. There are major lessons for the market outlook from that episode, in our view. Returning to the present, we think through the ways tariffs and immigration measures can complicate the inflation picture and the Fed easing narrative. From there, we consider implications for rates, credit, and FX. We then assess the Asian outlook in the context of Trump 2.0. We end with a stock-taking of China’s recent economic performance and the road ahead for supportive measures.

Two recent publications:
Macro Insights Weekly: The coming trade shock and Asia
ASEAN-6 2025 Outlook: Crosswinds

Happy new year! We kick off the year with a discussion on the likely impact of Trump policies on US markets, starting with the 1890s McKinley tariff narrative. There are major lessons for the market outlook from that episode, in our view. Returning to the present, we think through the ways tariffs and immigration measures can complicate the inflation picture and the Fed easing narrative. From there, we consider implications for rates, credit, and FX. We then assess the Asian outlook in the context of Trump 2.0. We end with a stock-taking of China&rsquo;s recent economic performance and the road ahead for supportive measures.
Two recent publications: <a href="https://www.dbs.com.sg/corporate/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/012025/250120_insights_weekly.xml">Macro Insights Weekly: The coming trade shock and Asia</a> <a href="https://www.dbs.com.sg/corporate/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/012025/250120_insights_asean6.xml">ASEAN-6 2025 Outlook: Crosswinds</a>

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

DBS Economics & Strategy

Kopi Time E145 - Markets and Trump 2.0

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/c3958ca3-3440-4c5e-9ce4-b26d001038b4/transcript

We dive into the presently shifting capital flow dynamic with David Skilling, Founding Director, Landfall Strategy Group. David’s firm provides insights on global economic, geopolitical, and policy developments to firms, investors, and governments, so we begin by getting a sense of the mood of his clients. We then discuss if the ongoing geoeconomic instability is creating room for Europe and Asia to come closer, even with the China-US complications in place. We then delve into his recent publication, Capital Wars, in which he argues that efforts to rebalance global trade flows will contribute to structural change in global capital flows. We go region by region, from the US to Europe, UK to Japan, and then ending with South-East Asia, to take stock of the likely impact of greater competition for capital at the firm and national levels.

We dive into the presently shifting capital flow dynamic with David Skilling, Founding Director, Landfall Strategy Group. David&rsquo;s firm provides insights on global economic, geopolitical, and policy developments to firms, investors, and governments, so we begin by getting a sense of the mood of his clients. We then discuss if the ongoing geoeconomic instability is creating room for Europe and Asia to come closer, even with the China-US complications in place. We then delve into his recent publication, Capital Wars, in which he argues that efforts to rebalance global trade flows will contribute to structural change in global capital flows. We go region by region, from the US to Europe, UK to Japan, and then ending with South-East Asia, to take stock of the likely impact of greater competition for capital at the firm and national levels.

Kopi Time E155 - Capital Wars with Dr. David Skilling

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/7e035bd2-edee-4b7d-bd62-b2fa00366a6c/transcript

This is a recording from the DBS Asia Insights Conference 2025, held in Jakarta on May 21. I had the privilege of discussing Indonesia’s near and medium term outlook with Chatib Basri, former finance minister. In this conversation, Mr. Basri talks about Indonesia’s strategy during a time of geoeconomic fragmentation, the ability of the economy to absorb shocks, what it would take to reach 8% growth, the challenges to education, health, and infrastructure, sectoral development strategies in place, and the future of jobs amid tech disruption. An erudite speaker,  Mr. Basri’s insights are invaluable to those following South East Asia’s most populous economy.

This is a recording from the DBS Asia Insights Conference 2025, held in Jakarta on May 21. I had the privilege of discussing Indonesia&rsquo;s near and medium term outlook with Chatib Basri, former finance minister. In this conversation, Mr. Basri talks about Indonesia&rsquo;s strategy during a time of geoeconomic fragmentation, the ability of the economy to absorb shocks, what it would take to reach 8% growth, the challenges to education, health, and infrastructure, sectoral development strategies in place, and the future of jobs amid tech disruption. An erudite speaker, &nbsp;Mr. Basri&rsquo;s insights are invaluable to those following South East Asia&rsquo;s most populous economy.

Kopi Time E154 - Chatib Basri on Indonesia’s Present and Future

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/87644ca7-dfb8-47bb-a51d-b2ea009ad15f/transcript

Prof Danny Quah, Dean of LKY School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to share his insights on the dangers and opportunities stemming from the changing world order. We go over two of his recent pieces; first, an open letter to the US president (penned before the US elections last November, and second, a research paper on the correlation between global trade and geopolitics. Prof Quah dissects the great power rivalry through (i) the perception of win-win versus zero sum and (ii) a tendency to attribute domestic welfare shortfalls (blue collar jobs, health, education, safety) to external factors (trade, immigration, defence spending). He then points out that trade liberalisation and the politics of global engagement have gone hand in hand on the way up (say, from the 1960s to 2010) and down (the past decade and a half). We then discuss a key point—the US shying away from globalisation or green transition does not doom those dynamics. There is a huge world of trade and GDP outside the US. The world is not being swayed; rules and agreements among the rest are proceeding, with the window left open for the US to return one day. 

Prof Danny Quah, Dean of LKY School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to share his insights on the dangers and opportunities stemming from the changing world order. We go over two of his recent pieces; first, an open letter to the US president (penned before the US elections last November, and second, a research paper on the correlation between global trade and geopolitics. Prof Quah dissects the great power rivalry through (i) the perception of win-win versus zero sum and (ii) a tendency to attribute domestic welfare shortfalls (blue collar jobs, health, education, safety) to external factors (trade, immigration, defence spending). He then points out that trade liberalisation and the politics of global engagement have gone hand in hand on the way up (say, from the 1960s to 2010) and down (the past decade and a half). We then discuss a key point&mdash;the US shying away from globalisation or green transition does not doom those dynamics. There is a huge world of trade and GDP outside the US. The world is not being swayed; rules and agreements among the rest are proceeding, with the window left open for the US to return one day.&nbsp;

Kopi Time E153 - Prof Danny Quah on the Fracturing World Order

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/e3798f2d-01b8-4001-9958-b2e30097894a/transcript

Kopi Time E145 - Markets and Trump 2.0

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

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