This podcast is an 11-minute reflection on the recently concluded IMF annual meetings, held at Washington DC. The meetings were characterised by relief over global economic resiliency, juxtaposed by heightened concerns about a variety of risks. Global growth is expected to remain stable between 2024 and 2025. Concerns about inflation have receded, but we caution against a victory lap. USD weaponisation and trade wars are causing investor strategies to shift. EM resilience would be tested by the outcome of the US elections. Intersection of AI and capital markets is generating interest from regulators. We discuss a chapter in the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report on this theme.

This podcast is an 11-minute reflection on the recently concluded IMF annual meetings, held at Washington DC. The meetings were characterised by relief over global economic resiliency, juxtaposed by heightened concerns about a variety of risks. Global growth is expected to remain stable between 2024 and 2025. Concerns about inflation have receded, but we caution against a victory lap. USD weaponisation and trade wars are causing investor strategies to shift. EM resilience would be tested by the outcome of the US elections. Intersection of AI and capital markets is generating interest from regulators. We discuss a chapter in the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report on this theme.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

DBS Economics & Strategy

Kopi Time E138 - IMF Notes; Economic Resiliency and Financial Risks

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/6376110f-2fbb-46b2-8c63-b218009e6f5e/transcript

We bring the year to an end with astute market strategist and Fed watcher Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. Sri begins by taking stock of the US economy and markets, how they have been fuelled by fiscal stimulus and the Fed put. Sri is a strong critic of the Fed’s track record on price and financial stability, and he worries that inflation and market risks could be back on the horizon in 2025, even if they seem remote now. We talk about the balance sheet of US households, which look fine on aggregate, but Sri points out that those at the low-end of the income spectrum are struggling with high cost of living and debt service. On corporate balance sheet, Sri worries about commercial real estate and the proliferation of private equity and debt. We then take a look at the outlook for the dollar, gold, and EM assets. Sri sees a year of two halves; first the Trump trades and then the fading of the sugar rush. Expect a volatile 2025.

We bring the year to an end with astute market strategist and Fed watcher Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. Sri begins by taking stock of the US economy and markets, how they have been fuelled by fiscal stimulus and the Fed put. Sri is a strong critic of the Fed&rsquo;s track record on price and financial stability, and he worries that inflation and market risks could be back on the horizon in 2025, even if they seem remote now. We talk about the balance sheet of US households, which look fine on aggregate, but Sri points out that those at the low-end of the income spectrum are struggling with high cost of living and debt service. On corporate balance sheet, Sri worries about commercial real estate and the proliferation of private equity and debt. We then take a look at the outlook for the dollar, gold, and EM assets. Sri sees a year of two halves; first the Trump trades and then the fading of the sugar rush. Expect a volatile 2025.

Kopi Time E144 - 2025 outlook with Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/b5b6252d-7891-4e77-89cd-b24c0068f35a/transcript

Are today’s policy challenges and market behaviour largely about post pandemic macro, or are they reflecting fiscal, monetary, and financial “dominance” that stem from two decades of interventions? Mustafa Chowdhury, a veteran of bond and credit market analysis, returns to Kopi Time to offer a nuanced but highly important perspective on the impact of policy distortion on market behaviour. Why did the long-end of the US yield curve sell-off after the September rate cut? Why haven’t banks reduced their duration exposure despite the regional bank crisis last year? Why are long-term mortgage rates so high and why aren’t short-term products available? And still, why is the housing market so strong? What about the perennial academic and policy debate on price levels versus differences, and how has that caused monetary policy errors? Given all this, what is the outlook for rates, FX, credit, and financial stability? This rich conversation offers excellent insights; a must listen for economists and market strategists.

Are today’s policy challenges and market behaviour largely about post pandemic macro, or are they reflecting fiscal, monetary, and financial “dominance” that stem from two decades of interventions? Mustafa Chowdhury, a veteran of bond and credit market analysis, returns to Kopi Time to offer a nuanced but highly important perspective on the impact of policy distortion on market behaviour. Why did the long-end of the US yield curve sell-off after the September rate cut? Why haven’t banks reduced their duration exposure despite the regional bank crisis last year? Why are long-term mortgage rates so high and why aren’t short-term products available? And still, why is the housing market so strong? What about the perennial academic and policy debate on price levels versus differences, and how has that caused monetary policy errors? Given all this, what is the outlook for rates, FX, credit, and financial stability? This rich conversation offers excellent insights; a must listen for economists and market strategists.

Kopi Time E143 - Markets and Policy Path Dependence with Mustafa Chowdhury

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/a75c6e15-6915-410c-a4a8-b23a009a8d84/transcript

Gaurav Keerthi, Head of Advisory and Emerging Business at Ensign InfoSecurity, joins Kopi Time to provide a fascinating overview of the current state of affairs in cybersecurity. We begin with the intersection of geopolitics and cyberattacks. From state sponsored defensive and offensive teams to independent actors with a range of motives, the number of agents attacking the integrity of national power grids, airports, water supply, along with healthcare and education systems, has proliferated at an extraordinary pace in recent decades. In addition to nations, large companies and individuals face millions of attacks a day that are increasingly sophisticated. Even with a tiny fraction succeeding, cyber crimes have become an economy worth hundreds of billions of the dollars. Gaurav works through the processes behind building systems that are not 100% immune from cyberattacks, but capable of bouncing back in the event of an attack. With AI in play already, and quantum on track to disrupt cryptography, new waves to technology are making cyber defence more challenging, but the same tech is also being used to build tools and practices for higher degrees of surveillance and resilience. Gaurav’s views are more realistic than pessimistic, focused on risk management. A must listen.  

Gaurav Keerthi, Head of Advisory and Emerging Business at Ensign InfoSecurity, joins Kopi Time to provide a fascinating overview of the current state of affairs in cybersecurity. We begin with the intersection of geopolitics and cyberattacks. From state sponsored defensive and offensive teams to independent actors with a range of motives, the number of agents attacking the integrity of national power grids, airports, water supply, along with healthcare and education systems, has proliferated at an extraordinary pace in recent decades. In addition to nations, large companies and individuals face millions of attacks a day that are increasingly sophisticated. Even with a tiny fraction succeeding, cyber crimes have become an economy worth hundreds of billions of the dollars. Gaurav works through the processes behind building systems that are not 100% immune from cyberattacks, but capable of bouncing back in the event of an attack. With AI in play already, and quantum on track to disrupt cryptography, new waves to technology are making cyber defence more challenging, but the same tech is also being used to build tools and practices for higher degrees of surveillance and resilience. Gaurav’s views are more realistic than pessimistic, focused on risk management. A must listen.

Kopi Time E142 - Tech and security with Gaurav Keerthi

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/eef53668-849c-4e65-b7ab-b235005fb907/transcript

Kopi Time E138 - IMF Notes; Economic Resiliency and Financial Risks

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