David Marsh, Chairperson of Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) joins Kopi Time to go over the UK’s recent bout with extraordinary currency and rates volatility. Mincing no words, David provides a strong critique of the policy choices and communications that have pushed the UK economy on weak footing, leaving it vulnerable to financial stability risks. We talk about past cases of devaluation (especially the 1992 Sterling crisis that David has written about extensively) and consider the parallels and lessons. We then discuss the myriad of risks hovering over Europe, from war to energy insecurity to debt overhang among the peripheral economies. David has a sobering outlook for the global economy, with recession looming and global coordination largely absent. Not many silver linings, other than lessons learnt.  

David Marsh, Chairperson of Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) joins Kopi Time to go over the UK’s recent bout with extraordinary currency and rates volatility. Mincing no words, David provides a strong critique of the policy choices and communications that have pushed the UK economy on weak footing, leaving it vulnerable to financial stability risks. We talk about past cases of devaluation (especially the 1992 Sterling crisis that David has written about extensively) and consider the parallels and lessons. We then discuss the myriad of risks hovering over Europe, from war to energy insecurity to debt overhang among the peripheral economies. David has a sobering outlook for the global economy, with recession looming and global coordination largely absent. Not many silver linings, other than lessons learnt.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

DBS Economics & Strategy

Kopi Time E086 - OMFIF’s David Marsh on the Sterling crisis and UK

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/cb133e2b-e8e1-4421-8cdd-af2b0060079e/transcript

Should AI be nationalised, or at least have a substantial part of its equity held by the public sector? I collaborated recently with author and economist Anthony Annett to delve into this issue. The resulting op-ed, published on Singapore’s Business Times (link here: https://bt.sg/g/DyLA), and the torrent of feedback we have received since it came out, is the subject of this Kopi Time episode. Tony and I go over the key arguments—public safety, strategic importance, distributional fairness, and common imperative, and respond to the various lines of arguments against them, from it’s too late, it’s not feasible, it will harm innovation, and the government is the problem, not the solution. By referring to relevant history of economic thought, experience with public ownership of strategic assets in the 20th century, and a common-sense risk management approach, we think our responses are adequate. You can be the judge.

Should AI be nationalised, or at least have a substantial part of its equity held by the public sector? I collaborated recently with author and economist Anthony Annett to delve into this issue. The resulting op-ed, published on Singapore&rsquo;s Business Times (link here: <a href="https://bt.sg/g/DyLA">https://bt.sg/g/DyLA</a>), and the torrent of feedback we have received since it came out, is the subject of this Kopi Time episode. Tony and I go over the key arguments&mdash;public safety, strategic importance, distributional fairness, and common imperative, and respond to the various lines of arguments against them, from it&rsquo;s too late, it&rsquo;s not feasible, it will harm innovation, and the government is the problem, not the solution. By referring to relevant history of economic thought, experience with public ownership of strategic assets in the 20th century, and a common-sense risk management approach, we think our responses are adequate. You can be the judge.

Kopi Time E178: AI and National Interest with Dr. Anthony Annett

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/000aa15b-e401-4a4a-a5ab-b4500013a838/transcript

A year since the reciprocal tariff bombshell, how has trade changed and what realignments are in the making? We invite back to Kopi Time, Deborah Elms, Hinrich Foundation’s head of trade policy, to mark the tumultuous period. We begin by taking stock of the macro impact on the US and rest of the world over the past year, with little evidence of a major change in the import appetite of American consumers or export viability of Asia. Deborah points out that there is nonetheless a substantial realignment in production origins and trade patterns.  We talk about the many uncertain aspects related to new rounds of US tariffs, investigations, and deal status for most countries in the world. We conclude with a roundup on the many consequential deals being done outside the US, and the parts of WTO framework still functional.  Wars may command headlines presently; trade matters are not going away at all.

A year since the reciprocal tariff bombshell, how has trade changed and what realignments are in the making? We invite back to Kopi Time, Deborah Elms, Hinrich Foundation&rsquo;s head of trade policy, to mark the tumultuous period. We begin by taking stock of the macro impact on the US and rest of the world over the past year, with little evidence of a major change in the import appetite of American consumers or export viability of Asia. Deborah points out that there is nonetheless a substantial realignment in production origins and trade patterns. &nbsp;We talk about the many uncertain aspects related to new rounds of US tariffs, investigations, and deal status for most countries in the world. We conclude with a roundup on the many consequential deals being done outside the US, and the parts of WTO framework still functional. &nbsp;Wars may command headlines presently; trade matters are not going away at all.

Kopi Time E177 - Deborah Elms on Trade Matters

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/73bf2417-a034-4c7b-a7d2-b4400064ad94/transcript

The week of the IMF Spring Meetings were characterised by a stark contrast. Markets focused on fading war risks and kept rallying. But official sector and analysts’ warnings about public debt, energy security, future of the USD, and Fed leadership risks loomed over the meetings. Commodity price/supply shocks likely to be substantial; growth forecasts are at risk. Energy source diversification, reserves, infrastructure, and renewables under focus. China better positioned via stocks, suppliers, coal, and green energy progress. War worsens debt, deficits and balance-of-payments strains extend to nations beyond the combatants. USD faces trust/payment-system challenges; Fed transition uncertainty is rising.

The week of the IMF Spring Meetings were characterised by a stark contrast. Markets focused on fading war risks and kept rallying. But official sector and analysts&rsquo; warnings about public debt, energy security, future of the USD, and Fed leadership risks loomed over the meetings. Commodity price/supply shocks likely to be substantial; growth forecasts are at risk. Energy source diversification, reserves, infrastructure, and renewables under focus. China better positioned via stocks, suppliers, coal, and green energy progress. War worsens debt, deficits and balance-of-payments strains extend to nations beyond the combatants. USD faces trust/payment-system challenges; Fed transition uncertainty is rising.

DBS Kopi Time E176-  Notes from IMF Meetings - Stark Disconnect

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/f9258e9b-22ff-4066-8523-b432004134f6/transcript

Kopi Time E086 - OMFIF’s David Marsh on the Sterling crisis and UK

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