DBS Economics & StrategyKopi Time E052: Kishore Mahbubani on dealing with China’s rise
Kishore Mahbubani, veteran expert on geopolitics and presently Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, talks about the urgent need for constructive engagement with China to avoid the risk of a lose-lose outcome for the world. A pragmatic, trade-off oriented strategy to deal with China would help achieve peace and prosperity for all, while ideologically-driven confrontations would only keep escalating matters, in his view. As always erudite, Mahbubani spans global history and geography to draw in lessons for policy makers and non-government observers alike.
The views, information, or opinions expressed during this Podcast are solely those of the individuals involved and do not necessarily represent those of DBS Bank.
Yeah,
welcome to Kobe time, a podcast series on markets and economies from DBS group Research. I am tomorrow Big chief economist, your host. Welcome to our 52nd episode. Today we have the pleasure of having with us an astute observer of geopolitics
get your mojo Bonnie is currently distinguished fellow at the ASIA Research Institute at National University of Singapore.
In his long and accomplished carrier, Professor Mahogany was with the Singapore Foreign Service for 33 years. Twice he was Singapore's ambassador to the U. N. He was also permanent secretary at the Foreign Ministry From 1993 to 1998.
prof Giovanni joined Academia in 2004 when he was appointed the founding dean of the Lee Kwan School of Public Policy.
Kingdom of Heaven is a prolific author of articles in leading newspapers and magazines, as well as a number of books including can asians think can Singapore survive and most recently, which we will talk a lot about has China one.
Professor Giovanni, welcome to copy time.
My pleasure,
thank you so much for being with us. I want to begin with an op ed that you wrote at the Financial Times just a couple of weeks ago and the title was biden should summon the courage to reverse course on china. So let's start with the U. S. Point of view. Why is it in the interest of the US to reduce the temperature between the two superpowers?
Well, you know, I want to emphasize that I want biden to succeed.
My nightmare
Is that in 2024
we will see the return of donald trump
and I'm not even exaggerating
Because at the end of the day, he did get 74 75 million votes.
And if biden gets it wrong,
the world is in trouble.
So our interests,
including in Singapore and in Southeast Asia, is to help biden succeed by carrying on with trump's policies on china when they clearly have failed in every sense of the term. And you know, as explained in my book as china won. The fundamental problem about the contest that donald trump launched against china
is that he launched this contest without a strategy.
And Henry Kissinger told me that a one on one bunch that I had with him in new york.
And what happens when you don't have a strategy, you fail?
And so the obvious question to ask is
has trump's policies weakened china strengthened the US brought the friends of the U. S. To support us on china.
The answer to all three questions is no. So obviously it is not in the interests of the biden administration
to carry on in an automatic fashion with trump's policies on china instead of be wiser for him to announce, hey
trump failed on china, I'll do a better job.
Right? And you
our mincing no words. So what would you have done differently in the first two months of the body administration?
I I would say the first thing that biden could have done bearing in mind the political environment in the United States which has become strongly anti china
is to say, hey
guys,
we've got lots of important things to do
on china. Let's press the pause button,
let's first figure out
what has trump done. Has he weakened china,
has he strengthened America?
And then after we assess his policies will then decide okay which ones do we carry on? And as part of the pause button, especially in the first few weeks,
the first thing you should have done was to lift all the trade tariffs and sanctions on china. Because I can tell you, just a few days ago I was participating in the Harvard ASia conference with some Harvard professors and uh china watchers in the U. S.
And they all said when the biden administration announces that we are not going to remove the sanctions and tariffs because we want to retain them as leverage against china. You know what this Harvard professor said that's like that's like threatening china by saying if you don't listen to me I'll shoot myself in the foot again.
So clearly these sanctions and tariffs have not heard china in fact have not helped. The american workers have not helped the american consumers. So frankly reverse costs on them because because there will be in the interests of the american people.
Last year, you attended a conference organized by DBS where you pointed out that your view was that the chinese themselves have not done themselves any favor in terms of influencing people and winning friends. And at that time it was summer of last year. You felt that china had no friends left in Washington D. C. Does that remain the case?
That that certainly remains the case? And uh why that has happened? Of course is a very complex story. In fact I hold the vote
Whole chapter in my book has China 1 to the strategic mistake that China has made
in this U. S. China contrast. And of course it was completely unnecessary for china to have alienated the american business community. And as you know, many american companies
make a lot of money from china. I mean Boeing,
I think going single biggest customer probably is china. General Motors makes more money from
china than it does from the United States of America
and Apple. Absolutely! The world's largest company.
You just imagine if tomorrow there's a complete shutdown or trade
between us and china,
How much do you think these $2 trillion dollar apple company we worth?
Right. So Apple is benefiting a lot too. But what is amazing
is that none of these companies spoke out when trump launches trade war against china and that was a clear sign that china had failed and china had alienated the american business community.
No
disastrous
start to the first two months of the administration, vis a vis china notwithstanding, we did have john Kerry engage the chinese. His biden's climates are on issues of climate change and it looks like that is one area where there will be substantial room for collaboration. So it's not all confrontation.
Yes, certainly, again, to be fair to the biden administration, they are trying to do both things at the same time,
but at some point in time there has to be a certain degree of intellectual
And political coherence in what you are doing and frankly, you know, I was a diplomat for 33 years.
If you really want countries to cooperate on some things for a start, stop insulting them.
And so for example when mike Pompeo almost on the last day of the trump administration declares
that there was a genocide in Xinjiang.
That's a complete
untruth.
No, it has not been proven that hundreds and thousands of people have been killed in Xinjiang is completely untrue. And Jeff Sachs of Columbia University just came out with an article that documented why this is false.
Unfortunately, the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken repeated
that there was a genocide in Xinjiang and that's factually incorrect.
So I think when it comes to dealing with china,
I can understand the concerns the United States has about china. These are real legitimate concerns.
It is true that many american interests
will be hurt
and damage as china becomes stronger. So the concerns are real. They are legitimate.
But when you deal with them, the first thing you got to figure out is
what is my strategy,
what is my if you want to work out a strategy, what are my goals in dealing with china?
And so when the biden administration didn't press the pause button, didn't say, okay, let's start a fresh with a new approach to china. And as part of the fresh approaches, you know, especially when dealing with Asian countries,
public insults never help.
In fact, the whole definition of a diplomat is someone who can tell you to go to hell
in such a way that you feel you're going to enjoy the journey. That's what diplomacy is all about. Okay. And I know that America has got good diplomats. So why doesn't America go back to the diplomacy textbook and try to engage china in a respectful dialogue, pointing out where the differences are by the concerns are
and then pointing out areas we can collaborate. But to do that you need to have a u turn a reversal from the policies of the trump administration because you're just in south china today in south china tomorrow and we carry on. That's not how you conduct international relations.
I wanna spend most of this podcast talking about Asia but one non Asia question for you because you are talking about this
politics of insults which doesn't really pay off us has been very aggressive against Russia the last month or so, including the president, the United States calling Vladimir Putin's a killer, which I don't think the Russians appreciated much. And we're seeing in the last few days significant escalation in the relationship between the two countries.
Is that a mistake as well?
Well, again, the mistake is a similar one.
What is the United States strategy
for dealing with Russia?
And as you know, one of the most, how do you say controversial points I make in my book is that Russia in the long run will not be an ally of china.
Russia. In the long run will become an ally of the West. And by the way, other american strategic thinkers
like john Mearsheimer and others have said, why are we pushing Russia
into the camps of china? And the reason why the West is pushing Russia into the camps of china is because the West doesn't have a strategy for dealing with Russia. And as you know, in my previous books, have documented
that it was a huge mistake to try to expand NATO into what used to be the geopolitical space
of the former soviet union and of course, the Russians who get upset
and sadly, you know, Gorbachev tried very hard
to create a new rapprochement between Russia and the West, and he was slapped
by the West, NATO was expanded unnecessarily,
and the end result is that the West has succeeded in alienating Russia
and as a consequence of that, Russia is now cooperating with china because they both feel that they're being slapped around.
And I suppose implicit in your argument is that if you as a superpower, starts pushing another emerging or former power around, instead of energizing your allies in those societies, you're actually energizing the anti Western sentiments.
Yes, I mean, I I you know, I I want to emphasize again that
we want the United States to remain initiation to.
We want the United States to play a constructive role in East Asia. And there is a tremendous reservoirs of goodwill towards America. America can exploit these reservoirs of goodwill, but to exploit these reservoirs of goodwill, don't force countries in this region to say,
are you on china's side or on the side of the United States? Because frankly, for the countries in this region whose today the primary trading partner right
Now in the year 2021 years ago,
America's GNP was eight times the size of China's. Today is only 1.5 times at the most.
In the year 2000 America's trade with Southeast Asia was three times larger.
Then China's trade with Southeast Asia.
Today, china's trade with Southeast Asia is much larger
than America's trade without these issues. So how can you ask these countries to give up their their real hard core interests and sacrifice their relations with china for what? So you that's why you need to have a much more intelligent, thoughtful strategy.
And unfortunately as you know, because the United States won the cold war against soviet union so handsomely.
There's always took it for granted. Hey, people have to choose with the United States and soviet union. They chose United States. And so they say, okay today, if countries have to choose with the United States and china, they are automatically choose the United States. And of course many countries want to maintain good relations United States. But hang on a second they have real interests with reserving china
and china as I keep telling my american friends, America will be around in Asia
for another 100 years.
China will be around in Asia for another 1000 years. So you've got you've got to focus on the 1000 year calendar in addition to focusing on the 100 year calendar.
Okay, you mentioned that the U. S. Retains tremendous reservoir of goodwill in the region.
Why is it the military umbrella that the U. S. Can offer? Or is it the US soft power or is it the economic market size of the U. S.
Well, it's a it's again a complicated story. But I what I do is I tell my american friends,
if you look at the sentiment in latin America or even central America towards the United States, there's so much anti american sentiment there. And one person expressed this openly was a famous novelist, Gabriel Garcia marquez.
And I actually was in the room hearing him say that, you know, okay. By contrast in Southeast Asia, because the United States has been far away, it has not played an oppressive role in Southeast Asia. In fact, it's played a supportive role in Southeast Asia. When Asean was created in 1967
it was a pro american creation,
and china actually denounced the creation of Asean is a new imperialist
outfit, you know, So, you know, from that day onwards, and of course in the Cold War, it was the Asean states that stood with the United States against the soviet union and actions in Vietnam and Indochina.
And of course, paradoxically, of course, is that the reason why Asean did so well
Is that in the 1980s there was a complete alignment of interest within us China and Asia
and this triangle strengthen Asean a great deal. So, you know, we have lots and lots of examples of how United States has played a positive role
in Southeast Asia. And of course, as you know, if you look at the educational qualifications
of most Southeast asian leaders, very few of them have studied in chinese universities,
many of them have studied in american universities. And certainly if you want to look for a cabinet which has the hard, highest number of Harvard graduates,
I think it's the Singapore cabinet.
So you can see how, how deep and pervasive the influence of american society has been in Singapore and in south east Asia and we appreciate it, we like it, we welcome it.
And I can tell you that, you know, American investment in Singapore in the 60s and 70s, we had a critical role in jump starting Singapore's economic growth. So Singapore, frankly, should send a big thank you note to the United States for what it has done for Singapore.
What kind of thank you notes should asian countries be sending to china has china already become the most important organizing principle in this region. And is it really so far the economic success of china or you think that china is actually making
concerted efforts toward having a broader ways influence in the region.
You know, it would be very difficult uh, to give a definitive answer to your question
because what we are seeing is a work in progress
Essentially. No one, I think even the Chinese themselves
a surprise how fast china has grown
Frankly. If you had asked Deng Xiaoping in 1980 when he launches four modernizations, right
That do you anticipate Mr Deng that in 34 years time China's GNP, which then was 10 of the United States within 34 years become bigger. I mean, Deng Xiaoping would have said, no way we are struggling, we have poverty, we have problems, you will never get there. And of course what the Chinese have accomplished
Frankly is a genuine miracle. I mean, in terms of the economic growth, I mean getting lifting 800 million people out of poverty creating now the world's largest middle class. And I think the Chinese themselves actually are having difficulty accepting the fact
they're no longer to use their own words. They say, oh china is the largest developing country in the world. Come on, when you have the second largest GNP nominal terms, the largest GNP in P. P. P terms, you are for all practical purpose, a major economic power.
And I think the chinese haven't adjusted to that and we should help them adjust to that.
That China got a lot of concessions in the year 2001 when he joined the World Trade Organization because it was then literally a developing country, it was automatically eligible for a lot of these concessions. But today
it's not right,
not fair for china to retain these concessions as the world's second largest economic power. And actually, I think you'd be wiser for china to unilaterally give up
some of these concessions. And in fact, you know, hank Paulson who's a former U. S.
Treasury secretary who has actually been quite friendly to china. I said, come on guys,
please start giving up some of your concessions. But all this can be done if you have a thoughtful, reflective and respectful dialogue with china.
But if you insult china, how do you think you can persuade china to change? That's the mistake.
Right, okay. So I want to stay on that issue of thank you. Note, should shouldn't china send a thank you note to the Clinton and Bush administration officials who helped that accession to the W. T. O. Because that was a pivotal moment for china.
Absolutely, Absolutely. But you know, the negotiations were not easy.
And I don't know if you remember there was a very famous trip by Premier to wrong G
to Washington D. C. To meet Bill Clinton
and he went there with a great hope and desire to secure china's admission to W. T. O.
But then I could be honest with you, this is our all documented the Clinton administration
became a bit greedy
and raised the bar for china's entry into the WTO
and two wrongs. He didn't have enough political power to meet the race bar. In fact, you're wrong, G was embarrassed back home by the way, you know, so
the negotiations were difficult. They were not easy. But at the end of the day, to be fair, the United States did agree uh, to china's admission to W. T. O.
And and and that was a gift. But of course the other gift unfortunately that the United States gave to China was that after 9-11 happened in Manhattan, I was there when 9-11 happened.
The United States got distracted in fighting wars in the Middle East. The war in Iraq was illegal
continued in Afghanistan. And every year
that the United States spent fighting unnecessary wars for geopolitical gifts to china.
So the U. S. In a sense give some intended gifts by allowing china to join the W. T. O. And some unintended gifts by fighting unnecessary wars in the Middle East.
That's very well said. Um I have heard you talk about and I've seen this human physiology in several of your columns where you say that you know these large superpowers
should try to have a focus on the big picture on the broader strategy. As opposed to minor irritants
define minor irritants.
Yeah.
Well I mean the uh I would give the example of Hong kong
right
and you know you can, you can argue that perhaps what china is doing
may have violated the agreements that were reached
between china and the United Kingdom,
okay, they were reached within china and United Kingdom.
Why does the United States
have to stand up and say,
hey
what is happening in Hong kong is a beautiful sight to behold.
This is what nancy Pelosi said
when the violent demonstrators
toward violently tore down the legislative assembly in Hong kong
and sadly
She understood the meaning of the phrase. What a beautiful sight to behold on January 6 2021
when the demonstrators
violated the U. S. Congress
and she was there.
So it was a big mistake for the United States to encourage violence in Hong kong.
And and of course now you see what the same thing has happened so
in on issues like a Hong kong, there is a tendency to do grandstanding
rather than saying what are my interests, right?
And you know, for example, you could argue that
United States is depriving the human rights of Puerto Ricans by not giving them statehood. Okay,
you want china to make a big deal of it, right, chinese good if they wanted to. But they're not they're not interested. They want to focus on the big things. And so this is all this, focus on all these tangential issues
reflects a lack of strategy
and I'm trying to big goal I have is to help the United States
work out what would be the really good strategy. And for example, you may seem give a simple example
in dealing with china.
What is more important
for the United States? Is it the interests of its people?
Or is it the primacy of the United States in the global arena?
You got to be clear, you know,
and right now the United States, this is not decided which is more important. And so that as a consequence of it, number one, the people of America are suffering
As a result of the United States spending $5 trillion dollars fighting unnecessary wars.
Also, the standard of living on the bottom, 50 of the United States has remained stagnant for three decades, creating a sea of despair
among the white working class is we should lead to the election of Donald trump.
So frankly, if I was joe biden, I would focus on the interests of the american people
to ensure that donald trump doesn't come back and therefore if that's your priority then primacy is not so important.
Why is primacy important? You know, at the end of the day,
you can have a situation where china has a larger economy than the United States, but United States remains the most admired society in the world. So what's more important?
So these are, these are the trade offs you got to make
in these big strategic decisions. And unfortunately that has not yet happened
in Washington, D. C. And the people who see the american friends of mine who liked my book have told me
that I can see I'm trying to help the United States work are an intelligent, thoughtful long term strategy towards china.
But this
Notion of privacy, I mean surely Chinese policymakers are not immune from that. They also dream of a day when their number one. Right?
Uh, certainly I think it's important to when you step into people's mindsets. When you say it's important for China to be number one,
you have to take in a sense a walk into the chinese mind
and when you walk into the chinese mind, what do you find is that history is so alive in the chinese mind and instead of thinking about what will happen when I become number one,
The main question in chinese mind is how do I ensure I don't suffer another century of humiliation.
And you know the reason why I did my mood cause on us china relations was again you can watch it for free
24 videos. I want to try and enable Americans
to step into chinese minds and see how the chinese view the things. So the chinese, by the way the americans think for example, oh and china becomes number one. Uh They will take our place in the Middle East.
Excuse me, china doesn't want to go to the Middle East. China is actually very happy in china. Were very happy with the United States in the Middle East for another 100 years.
Nor are they interested in taking the United States plays in latin America. They have no such ambitions.
At the end of the day, the chinese view of the world
is very different from the american view of the world. All they want is to be treated with respect.
And if you treat them the respect they will say fine you can carry on doing what you're doing. I'm not interested in changing you or your way of life.
And and I can tell you when when americans say that
china is a threat to american democracy,
how
china is not even sending money Like they claim Russia has sent money
to influence the polls in America. The chinese are very realistic, very pragmatic.
They don't believe that the chinese system is good enough for anybody else. They believe the chinese system is good for chinese
and the rest of the world. You choose your own system. We will not interfere. So at the end of the day the china doesn't want to step
and take over many of America's global roles. What is America fighting against?
Yeah,
now china of course has somewhat contentious relationship with its neighbours, whether it is south Korea or Japan of course then there's Taiwan
um and and even in southeast Asia, we've seen some issues around south China sea.
It's important to have
if not permanent allies, but at least you know, friendly interaction with your neighbors. To that end recently President Biden and Japanese, Prime Minister Suga
issued a joint statement and I like the part where they said that they need to encourage peaceful resolution of cross strait issues. Can Japan act as a calming influence in this relationship?
Well, you know, if I was the leader of Japan, I would be very, very careful
in not waking up the chinese nationalist dragon
because unfortunately for Japan, the one foreign country
that has actually damaged china more than any other country in the world is Japan
Starting from the 1895 Sino-Japanese War, which as you know that to the secession of Taiwan to Japan
and so the separation of Taiwan, perhaps you can date back to that date
and the charge. And it is a fact sad fact the Japanese did terrible things in china
in in leading up to World War Two. And as you know, the United States and china cooperated against Japan in World War Two.
So
it is actually not in Japan's interests
To when your country of 130 million people
sitting next to 1.4 billion people whom you have made angry quite recently,
you want to tame the chinese nationalist dragon
and therefore I think the United States is not being a good friend
of Japan
in getting it to pronounce on Taiwan or Taiwan is you
because the Japanese, when they establish diplomatic relations with china
acknowledge that there is one china
and that china and Taiwan are one country. Now I know that the Japanese strike very hard
to deflect a statement on Taiwan by talking about Taiwanese streets and they could sort of imply that it was actually the Taiwanese people who are creating problems across the Taiwan straits. You know, they left the door open for that
and I think that the United States should think very hard
before using Taiwan as a stick with which to beat china
because the this this this is another example of having a lack of strategy. You must understand where the chinese red lines are.
There's a very hot chinese red line on Taiwan.
If Taiwan goes for independence, there will be a war.
Let's be very clear about that.
The and any chinese leader
who appears to be soft
on Taiwan is finished.
If there's one issue on which there is a consensus about 1.4 billion people, we will never allow Taiwan to become an independent country.
So so do you really want to start a war unintentionally
with china? And this is where by the way, this is what I'll give 11 compliment to the biden administration.
The miss, the way that the trump administration was crossing the red line on Taiwan
was by sending official, current
our current officials at envoys to Taiwan,
Biden very cleverly reversed that. He sent to former Senator Christopher Dodd and two retired officials,
James Steinberg and Richard Armitage to Taiwan. And that goes back to the previous understanding. So I thought that was a very clever move by the biden administration. Very
interesting. I had not noticed that. Thanks for pointing that out.
Okay. Speaking of red lines and sticks with which to be china technology seems to be the new big stick. Um so we started with a trade war but by the time the trump administration was coming towards us and it had become a full fledged tech war and the U. S. Seems adamant to make sure that
and going back to the shore primacy that china doesn't attain
premises in the world of semiconductor production and so on.
Is that going to become a red line if the chinese feel that there
tech future is under existential threat because of us sanctions and restrictions.
I would say there's no red line there
because it's perfectly legitimate for the United States
to try and maintain its technological superiority. That's a legitimate
desire on the part of the United States and similarly uh is equally legitimate for china to try and maintain its technological strength also. So this is a legitimate area of competition
where may the better person win. But again you may you can also ask yourself what your strategy. So I'll give you an example
when the trump administration cut off the supply of semiconductor chips to china. It hurt china in the short run
but actually it gave china a gift in the long run because they made the chinese realize I will never ever
rely on the United States for semiconductor chips
I may be behind now
I will catch up
and ironically the trump administration damaged the interests of american companies
because by taking away the biggest market,
you cut down the revenues
by cutting down your revenues, you cut down the richest and development budget
and therefore you damage their competitiveness in the long term.
And by contrast I believe believe me the chinese have a lot of money.
They will deploy a massive amount of resources to ensure that they never again behind in semiconductor chips.
Of course the country that really has primacy in cheese production these days seems to be Taiwan which is his own sort of, you know dramatic implications if indeed china feels that you know TSMC is one of those important companies in the geopolitical chess game.
But TSMC by the way, respects american laws, let's be very clear. It cannot. TSMC
breaks any american sanctions is toast.
So TSMC is completely subject to american rules and regulations.
You could then considerably envisage a situation where under american pressure, TSMC diverse away from china because it has
big plans in china
and of course restricts the
leaders generation of chips being purchased by chinese companies.
Yes, certainly that could happen. Yes. So but then that that's all this is part of the big question.
What is a legitimate form of competition and what is not a legitimate form uh of competition? And frankly if both U. S. And china competing to produce the best semiconductor chips
the whole world should cheer them on and say thank you very much. I'm waiting for my next trip to come to my phone and I don't I don't care whether the United States or china has made it. It was a better chip I'm gonna benefit.
Okay um from Taiwan, maybe a little bit of discussion on India. I mean, you know this whole notion of you know picking aside it seems like India has picked a side. They have joined the multilateral security dialogue, the quad now there with Australia, Japan,
India is now sending a fairly strong signal to china that it is on the US side on matters of military cooperation and if
side has to be picked that this is going to pick
is that part of a
useful strategy or India is making a mistake?
Well, I think the story of India is actually a very long and complicated one, but I don't think that India has in any way
become a formal ally of the United States of America
and I believe the indians smart and sophisticated enough to realize
that the best position for India to have is to have strategic autonomy between the two powers. So it will work
with the United States and areas
where there are some convergence of interests for example in the quad
and it will uh work with china in other areas where there's conversions of interest. As you know, India has joined
the shanghai cooperation organization. India is a member of the
uh china Russia India club.
Uh you know that's where the latest meeting took place within chinese and indian officials.
India is a member of the asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. So the indians have chips
With the United States and chips with uh China too. And clearly the whatever happened in June 2020 the border was a disaster.
There has been an explosion of anti china sentiment in India. I personally experience it
and I try to appear on indian tv shows and
sound reasonable. I get beaten up.
So I think clearly there has been a setback in china India relations has been some improvement in the U. S. Indian relations but I don't think India is going to become an ally of the United States. And what's interesting about the latest quad meeting
is that frankly everyone sees quad as a defense organization.
But ironically the only thing that quad could agree on was vaccine diplomacy
which I think actually was very smart.
Which just was India's way of saying actually this is not a defense allies and of course India benefited from that because the Quad is gonna invest in exporting indian vaccines to the world and that's good for the world, good for India and good for everybody else.
From chinese perspective, the quad is provocative,
well it is certainly a propagated thing but the chinese um
yeah
half
very take a very long term view.
So I give you an example right now. Australia,
as you know, is a member of the quad is very strong ally of the United States. And as you know,
Australia is having a very rough time.
It's going to have the hardest time
dealing with the U. S. China W. Contest because in political and defence terms
Is 100 allied with the United States of America
but its economy is tied to china much much more so than the United States America. So Australia is going to have to make very very
difficult choices. And over time I suspect
that the chinese economic pressure on Australia
could become significant enough
that Australia might find you might find Australia very subtly
distancing itself from the court to and as you know, previous Australian governments did not want to join the quad precisely because they knew the economy was tied to china. So watch Australia,
watch what it does.
Don't be surprised if it moves towards a more what I call midpoint
position between us and china, right? And it's an
important point that Australia certainly has been characterized by musical chair of evolving prime ministers in the past couple of decades, which has added quite a bit of volatility to its foreign
policy. Not exactly.
Um,
Professor,
I've heard you talk in the past about china is not looking for friends that is looking for partners.
Um, so who are china's best partners these days? I mean, I see them doing a lot of work with Iran and there of course, as you pointed out earlier, you know, doing uh stuff with Russia, latin America resource rich countries in africa maybe is that
the direction china is going well? I would say that
yeah, the answer can be given to you with data.
You want to know who china's partners are. Look at the data on who are china's biggest trading partners today. And by the way, I'm going to surprise you. Everybody thinks that china's number one trading partner is either United States or the european union. Wrong answer
China's number one trading partner is Asean. Then I think number two is EU or US and number three EU or US and then go down the list.
And as far as the chinese are concerned, if we can trade with you,
you benefit from the trade,
I benefit from the trade. That's all I want.
China doesn't expect any country
to show what you call quote unquote friendship
because they don't believe
and in that sense they're much more realistic. You know,
there is no such thing as friendship between countries at the end of the day, countries will respond to their national interests. So I give you an example. One of the most significant countries
is in Southeast Asia Indonesia.
And an Indonesian minister says to me privately, of course,
when the americans come,
they gave us speeches on why china is all wrong,
stand with us
and they bring nothing.
When the chinese come,
they say you think you may be good if you have a Newport year, a new bridge here,
a new railway here.
And guess what?
At the height of Covid 19 US exported zero vaccines?
Indonesia imported 250 160 million doses, most of them from China.
So, you know, if you are Indonesian as the Indonesian minister was implying to me and Indonesians, as you know, a good friend of the United States,
when you are a poor developing country and somebody comes to you and says, I can build a new railway for you And as you know, the Jakarta Bandung railway is being built by china. Right? So,
so that's that's the real competition.
And you know, as far as Zakaria said in his recent column in the Washington post,
United States spend $1.7 trillion dollars
To build the F 35 jet, which will probably be never used in war. It's too good
and China spent $1.7 trillion dollars on the belt and road initiative,
Which means by the way, if you go to Greece,
there's a greek pot that has benefited from the belt and road initiative and you can go all around the world. So that's the real competition. And even though the Indonesians may psychologically feel more comfortable
dealing with americans at the end of the day, they have to ask themselves,
how do we improve the conditions of the Innovation people?
And that's why they work with china. Not because they love china
because they find that they can improve the well being of their people by working with china.
And that's, that's what china offers.
The professor's saying with Southeast Asia. Countries like Vietnam Philippines also have
deeply uh important relationship on the trade matters with china. But they're both also rather
sensitive about the south china sea related disputes. And where is china going with this?
Well, I'm going to give away a big secret of diplomacy.
There's no such thing as a benevolent great power.
The idea that any great power is going to sacrifice your interest to take care of somebody else interested. Never happens. That's true of the United States is true of china is true. Russia is true of France's true the United Kingdom.
So it is very uncomfortable living next to a great power.
If you only doubt, ask the neighbors of the United States. Right?
And so Southeast Asia
has got to adjust to the fact
that china's power has grown.
It's a reality.
You can't wish it away
and we have to adjust to it.
But if we are good, if you if you do it well, right? And so far, by the way, so far, I must say Asean is doing it very well.
China. Asean relations overall have been very good.
And you mentioned Vietnam, if there's any country that knows China very well, it's Vietnam because they have had a relationship for 2000 years. They were occupied by China for 1000 years. And they say in Vietnam to be a good leader of Vietnam, you must be able to stand up to China
and you must be able to get along with china.
And if you cannot do both, you cannot be a leader of Vietnam
and that's what every Southeast asian country needs to do. It needs to be able to stand up to china.
I need to be able to get along with china.
Now, there are certain things that are happening within china as well as neighboring countries of china that uh
push the boundaries of, you know, us being
disinterested
observers. And I'm talking about this in the context of in your book, has china won the concluding section. You write that at the end of the day, we always have to make tradeoffs including moral ones.
But at the same paragraph, you insist that the key question is not if the U. S. Or china wins, rather if humanity wins. So isn't there a tension between humanity winning and making a trade off on moral issues?
Not at all. Not at all. And and I'll give you a perfect example of a trade off right.
For a country like the United States,
it's got to ask how ask itself, a very simple question.
Looking down the road 30 to 40 years,
what is a bigger threat
the United States?
Is there going to be an explosion of chinese aircraft carriers coming to California
to threaten the military invasion of the United States?
Or is it going to be climate change that will ravage florida and California and other parts,
which is the real threat
chinese aircraft carriers or climate change?
And says climate change. Okay,
trade off
less attention to china. More attention to climate change. And I work with china and climate change. That's a trade off.
So that these are the practical decisions and by the United States, does it all the time.
You notice that the State Department came out with a very damaging report
on Saudi Arabia. Right,
What did the United States do after that?
They said we will maintain our relationship with Saudi Arabia,
right?
So that these trade these such trade offs.
I've done every day
by every country
and let's not be moralistic and say how can any country does that do it?
Because every country did. And one of the one of the most amazing points in my diplomatic career
was when there was a dispute within china and Asean about the future role of the camera Rusia
at a at a U. N. Conference in new york. But I attended
china said cameras must come back Asean said, cameras cannot come back. United States walk into the room.
United States, the champion of human rights. We said oh United States will support action against China.
No
United States supported china against Russia.
So isn't that shocking?
So I have seen with my own eyes
great powers making tradeoffs, it's not new.
He's been around for the 2000 years.
And so it's wiser for the United States to look at the big strategic picture
and decide what's important. And at the end of the day the common global Children challenges
Like climate change like COVID-19 are far more important. And therefore to go back to my very first point,
press the pause button on the U. S. China
contests. Okay, so final point then on that issue of press the pause button, will they?
Yeah,
I think right now the biden administration is still finding its feet still struggling.
But I suspect that there is now a growing number of voices saying
please stop. And I can tell you a leading american journal
has asked me to write an article saying please kishore write an article
pointing out that all our policies to as china wrongheaded, counterproductive, harmful to us. You know,
so the fact that an american journal wants me to write such an article is I think an indication that many americans feel very troubled
that biden is just going on
automatically with trump's policies when frankly these policies have not heard china helped America or helped America win France.
Well, we we
hope that two cities trap is not manifesting our our lifetime Professor Kishore Mahbubani, thank you so much for your time and insight.
Thank you.
It's great to have you thanks to our listeners to copy time was produced by martin, tacky daisy Sharma and validly provided additional assistance.
All 52 episodes of copy time are available now on YouTube as well as in all
major podcast platforms including apple google and Spotify.
Have a great day
