Odds are on we'll get another hike to the OCR tomorrow. 

That'll take us to 3%. 

Markets are pricing the chance of that hike happening at about 85%. 

It's not great timing for a Coalition government trying to get elected when cost of living is the number one issue. 

But that's obviously not something the Reserve Bank should or would care about. 

Their job is inflation.

All signs point north on that front. It's expected to be higher than the bank predicted in September, their last update. 

Our dollar is weaker compared to our trading partners which means stuff we buy from offshore costs us more.

Throw into the mix the fact oil is also higher and that Trump is planning to re-start bombing in Iran post-midterms, and you can see why the pundits are picking another hike. 

3% is still roughly neutral so you can argue, if they do hike, the bank is being cautious without clubbing the economic recovery in the back of the neck right when its kicking into gear. 

It's yet another reminder that the outcome of the US midterms are weirdly probably, or at least possibly, more important to New Zealand voters' wallets than the outcome of the one happening here at home. 

Odds are on we'll get another hike to the OCR tomorrow.&nbsp;
That'll take us to 3%.&nbsp;
Markets are pricing the chance of that hike happening at about 85%.&nbsp;
It's not great timing for a Coalition government trying to get elected when cost of living is the number one issue.&nbsp;
But that's obviously not something the Reserve Bank should or would care about.&nbsp;
Their job is inflation.
All signs point north on that front. It's expected to be higher than the bank predicted in September, their last update.&nbsp;
Our dollar is weaker compared to our trading partners which means stuff we buy from offshore costs us more.
Throw into the mix the fact oil is also higher and that Trump is planning to re-start bombing in Iran post-midterms, and you can see why the pundits are picking another hike.&nbsp;
3% is still roughly neutral so you can argue, if they do hike, the bank is being cautious without clubbing the economic recovery in the back of the neck right when its kicking into gear.&nbsp;
It's yet another reminder that the outcome of the US midterms are weirdly probably, or at least possibly, more important to New Zealand voters' wallets than the outcome of the one happening here at home.&nbsp;

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Ryan Bridge: Will the US midterms matter more to Kiwis than our own election?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/5a949cdf-5ef6-4d36-9853-b4ef011d608f/transcript

The UK's new Chancellor is set to deliver his first Budget. 

John Healey will set out Labour's tax and spending plans on October 28th, with tax increases possible. 

Business Correspondent Vicky Pryce told Ryan Bridge there have been some hints about what the Budget will include, such as some redistribution of funds from the wealthiest to those who need it the most. 

But she says it'll will be very tight fiscally, and will be watched very carefully by the capital markets.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

The UK's new Chancellor is set to deliver his first Budget.&nbsp;
John Healey will set out Labour's tax and spending plans on October 28th, with tax increases possible.&nbsp;
Business Correspondent Vicky Pryce told Ryan Bridge there have been some hints about what the Budget will include, such as some redistribution of funds from the wealthiest to those who need it the most.&nbsp;
But she says it'll will be very tight fiscally, and will be watched very carefully by the capital markets. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Vicky Pryce: Business Correspondent on the upcoming UK Budget announcement, cost of living protests in Europe

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/38fef973-c80a-4a9f-9842-b4ef0166a13a/transcript

There's potential for National and Labour to find common ground on education, despite disagreement over curriculum reforms. 

National's Erica Stanford told Ryan Bridge she tried to engage Labour while NCEA changes were being drafted, but to no avail. 

She says a recent meeting with Ginny Andersen revealed plenty they agree on —like the structured literacy mandate— but Labour still doesn't like the twice-yearly assessments or an hour of reading, writing, and maths each day. 

Andersen says learning support is one area where the parties could work together. 

She says there's an increasing number of children needing extra support, and it's one of the sector's biggest challenges going forward. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

There's potential for National and Labour to find common ground on education, despite disagreement over curriculum reforms.&nbsp;
National's Erica Stanford told Ryan Bridge she tried to engage Labour while NCEA changes were being drafted, but to no avail.&nbsp;
She says a recent meeting with Ginny Andersen revealed plenty they agree on —like the structured literacy mandate— but Labour still doesn't like the twice-yearly assessments or an hour of reading, writing, and maths each day.&nbsp;
Andersen says learning support is one area where the parties could work together.&nbsp;
She says there's an increasing number of children needing extra support, and it's one of the sector's biggest challenges going forward.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Erica Stanford and Ginny Andersen: National and Labour's Education Spokespeople on curriculums, fundamentals, learning support

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/81946935-ef35-464f-b109-b4ef012babba/transcript

Most voters have not realised how difficult New Zealand's fiscal predicament is, says a think tank boss. 

New Zealand Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich said the ACT Party's manifesto shows it is the "most radical" about getting government spending to 2017 levels. 

Released yesterday, the manifesto pledged to cut "wasteful spending" by $22 billion over four years, getting debt $12.4b lower by 2031 than currently forecast. 

Hartwich told Ryan Bridge that the plan was different from what other parties were offering. 

Nine years ago, 28.5% of GDP was spent by the Government, but currently the figure sits at nearly 33%, he said. 

"I think that a lot of this extra government spending has not resulted in actually making us feel better, in actually delivering better services for Kiwis, and therefore it is right to ask whether we couldn't achieve better results with lower spending." 

Although that message is landing with some of the electorate, most people do not realise how problematic the fiscal situation is, Hartwich said. 

"We all know that our population is going to age over the coming years, and Treasury told us that by 2065 if we don't change our way, we'll face 200% debt to GDP, which would really mean that we would be bankrupt. These are the levels that we last saw, for example, for Greece in the middle of the Euro crisis." 

He said New Zealand ranks "relatively low" on government spending compared to European nations, but they are "all approaching bankruptcy", he said. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Most voters have not realised how difficult New Zealand's fiscal predicament is, says a think tank boss.&nbsp;
New Zealand Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich said the ACT Party's manifesto shows it is the "most radical" about getting government spending to 2017 levels.&nbsp;
Released yesterday, the manifesto pledged to cut "wasteful spending" by $22 billion over four years, getting debt $12.4b lower by 2031 than currently forecast.&nbsp;
Hartwich told Ryan Bridge that the plan was different from what other parties were offering.&nbsp;
Nine years ago, 28.5% of GDP was spent by the Government, but currently the figure sits at nearly 33%, he said.&nbsp;
"I think that a lot of this extra government spending has not resulted in actually making us feel better, in actually delivering better services for Kiwis, and therefore it is right to ask whether we couldn't achieve better results with lower spending."&nbsp;
Although that message is landing with some of the electorate, most people do not realise how problematic the fiscal situation is, Hartwich said.&nbsp;
"We all know that our population is going to age over the coming years, and Treasury told us that by 2065 if we don't change our way, we'll face 200% debt to GDP, which would really mean that we would be bankrupt. These are the levels that we last saw, for example, for Greece in the middle of the Euro crisis."&nbsp;
He said New Zealand ranks "relatively low" on government spending compared to European nations, but they are "all approaching bankruptcy", he said.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Oliver Hartwich: NZ Initiative Executive Director on ACT's policy manifesto

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/97d02a76-73b9-4642-880a-b4ef011ec098/transcript

Ryan Bridge: Will the US midterms matter more to Kiwis than our own election?

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