So we've had a fifth round of talks with India on a free trade agreement. A senior government minister's in town with 42 of his mates.

This is a sign of good progress, but dairy farmers were hoping for a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow and it isn't going to happen. 

McClay and Luxon promised a deal by the election and it sounds like they're on track to achieve that. But is a deal worth the paper it's written on if it doesn't unlock tariff free access for milk powder?

It's our major commodity we sell to the rest for the world. It's one of the reasons Fonterra's the cat that got the cream right now. 

But in their haste and their eagerness, these Ministers are going for quick and dirty over comprehensive and all-encompassing. 

Which begs the question, would a deal look good for the government without dairy in it, or would you look a bit dumb because you've rushed in to buy a car which doesn't actually include an engine?

Here's why it won't include dairy: 
India is the world's largest consumer of dairy. 
It meets that demand domestically.
They don't need or want our stuff.
They have ambitions to be a major dairy exporter in future. 

The Brits' deal disappointed farmers for excluding dairy. Fed Farmers in Scotland put out a release saying it was a sour deal because of it. You can expect to get the same reaction here if and when a deal is done without our big money spinner included. 

Even our Treasury says dairy isn't going to happen.

I asked Miles Hurrell about this a few months ago. He's realistic. He basically said he doesn't think dairy will get across the line, but if it did, it'd be invaluable. Of course it would be.

Growth in global dairy consumption is expected to largely be driven out of India and Pakistan. 

To miss this boat would be disappointing. They could include some nothing clause about wanting to open in future, but there'd be no guarantee.

Which doesn't make this a deal not worth signing, but the speed at which its being done could actually hurt Luxon's self-described business negotiating skills if expectations aren't properly managed. 

So we've had a fifth round of talks with India on a free trade agreement. A senior government minister's in town with 42 of his mates.
This is a sign of good progress, but dairy farmers were hoping for a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow and it isn't going to happen.&nbsp;
McClay and Luxon promised a deal by the election and it sounds like they're on track to achieve that. But is a deal worth the paper it's written on if it doesn't unlock tariff free access for milk powder?
It's our major commodity we sell to the rest for the world. It's one of the reasons Fonterra's the cat that got the cream right now.&nbsp;
But in their haste and their eagerness, these Ministers are going for quick and dirty over comprehensive and all-encompassing.&nbsp;
Which begs the question, would a deal look good for the government without dairy in it, or would you look a bit dumb because you've rushed in to buy a car which doesn't actually include an engine?
Here's why it won't include dairy:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>India is the world's largest consumer of dairy.&nbsp;</li>
<li>It meets that demand domestically.</li>
<li>They don't need or want our stuff.</li>
<li>They have ambitions to be a major dairy exporter in future.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
The Brits' deal disappointed farmers for excluding dairy. Fed Farmers in Scotland put out a release saying it was a sour deal because of it. You can expect to get the same reaction here if and when a deal is done without our big money spinner included.&nbsp;
Even our Treasury says dairy isn't going to happen.
I asked Miles Hurrell about this a few months ago. He's realistic. He basically said he doesn't think dairy will get across the line, but if it did, it'd be invaluable. Of course it would be.
Growth in global dairy consumption is expected to largely be driven out of India and Pakistan.&nbsp;
To miss this boat would be disappointing. They could include some nothing clause about wanting to open in future, but there'd be no guarantee.
Which doesn't make this a deal not worth signing, but the speed at which its being done could actually hurt Luxon's self-described business negotiating skills if expectations aren't properly managed.&nbsp;

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Ryan Bridge: How are the India FTA talks going?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/9d3b6aad-2690-4ce8-818f-b38d011cc8d5/transcript