An economist says another GDP contraction today would be in-line with the idea we've been in a rolling recession for almost two years. 

The March 2024 quarter showed just 0.2% growth. 

BNZ is picking a 0.4% contraction in the second quarter. 

Chief Economist Mike Jones told Ryan Bridge the Reserve Bank's anticipating a 0.5% contraction, so it would take a real clanger to throw it off course. 

He says the bigger piece of news for interest rates in New Zealand and the Reserve Bank might be what the US Federal reserve does with interest rates.

LISTEN ABOVE

An economist says another GDP contraction today would be in-line with the idea we've been in a rolling recession for almost two years.  
The March 2024 quarter showed just 0.2% growth.  
BNZ is picking a 0.4% contraction in the second quarter.  
Chief Economist Mike Jones told Ryan Bridge the Reserve Bank's anticipating a 0.5% contraction, so it would take a real clanger to throw it off course.  
He says the bigger piece of news for interest rates in New Zealand and the Reserve Bank might be what the US Federal reserve does with interest rates. 
LISTEN ABOVE

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist ahead of today's GDP release

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/b4efa6c4-dc35-4580-a57a-b1ef015c977f/transcript

The Budget is always a fizzer in the sense that most of it is announced days in advance. 

There are a few sweeteners on the day, but this time, unless there's a rabbit about to be yanked from a hat, even they might be more Werther's Original than chocolate cake. 

The best time to read about the Budget is always the following Monday – that's when you get the real juice. 

All the cuts that pundits missed on the day become clear once the dust has settled. 

This Budget is one of many that's seen Nicola Willis spending more than Grant Robertson did. 

The surplus has been pushed out more times than you can shake a stick at. It's meant to be 2030. Nicola has no choice but to honour that. 

What she should do is come out today and tell us we're going to get there early, otherwise what has all 'cutting', relative term by the way, been for? 

Capital spending will be the aim of the game. 

Not all spending is bad, of course, handouts and made-up ministries? Not great. Roads and hospitals? Good. 

We're up over 40% of debt to GDP, and many people argue we can and should spend more. 

And yes, we can, and yes, we probably should. 

Not on day-to-day stuff – that's dumb. 

We are not America. We are not Europe. We don't have huge domestic demand and are quite prone to earthquakes and weather events. 

Any spending we do must be careful and calculated because let's be honest, our economy is more fragile to shocks, both at home and abroad. 

Which is why the surplus keeps getting pushed out. Which is why we need to unshackle ourselves from a structural deficit, and the sooner we can do that, the better off we'll be. 

The Budget is always a fizzer in the sense that most of it is announced days in advance.&nbsp;
There are a few sweeteners on the day, but this time, unless there's a rabbit about to be yanked from a hat, even they might be more Werther's Original than chocolate cake.&nbsp;
The best time to read about the Budget is always the following Monday – that's when you get the real juice.&nbsp;
All the cuts that pundits missed on the day become clear once the dust has settled.&nbsp;
This Budget is one of many that's seen Nicola Willis spending more than Grant Robertson did.&nbsp;
The surplus has been pushed out more times than you can shake a stick at. It's meant to be 2030. Nicola has no choice but to honour that.&nbsp;
What she should do is come out today and tell us we're going to get there early, otherwise what has all 'cutting', relative term by the way, been for?&nbsp;
Capital spending will be the aim of the game.&nbsp;
Not all spending is bad, of course, handouts and made-up ministries? Not great. Roads and hospitals? Good.&nbsp;
We're up over 40% of debt to GDP, and many people argue we can and should spend more.&nbsp;
And yes, we can, and yes, we probably should.&nbsp;
Not on day-to-day stuff – that's dumb.&nbsp;
We are not America. We are not Europe. We don't have huge domestic demand and are quite prone to earthquakes and weather events.&nbsp;
Any spending we do must be careful and calculated because let's be honest, our economy is more fragile to shocks, both at home and abroad.&nbsp;
Which is why the surplus keeps getting pushed out. Which is why we need to unshackle ourselves from a structural deficit, and the sooner we can do that, the better off we'll be.&nbsp;

Ryan Bridge: Budget spending must be careful and calculated

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/7b18d42c-6dcb-403a-b292-b4570159ea3b/transcript

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Thursday 28 May.

Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Thursday 28 May. 
Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Full Show Podcast: 28 May 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/93f9145e-c551-4eac-9292-b457012ac74c/transcript

Banks and economists expect the Official Cash Rate to hold at 2.25% despite global uncertainty.  

It's the first OCR announcement since conflict erupted in the Middle East, with September the hot pick for when the rate will next lift. 

Co-operative Bank CEO Mark Wilshire told Ryan Bridge he expects a cautious approach by both the Reserve Bank and the Government in the coming days.  

He says it'll be interesting to see the bank's outlook and Budget announcements tomorrow, which will probably be fairly constrained in terms of spending. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Banks and economists expect the Official Cash Rate to hold at 2.25% despite global uncertainty. &nbsp;
It's the first OCR announcement since conflict erupted in the Middle East, with September the hot pick for when the rate will next lift.&nbsp;
Co-operative Bank CEO Mark Wilshire told Ryan Bridge he expects a cautious approach by both the Reserve Bank and the Government in the coming days. &nbsp;
He says it'll be interesting to see the bank's outlook and Budget announcements tomorrow, which will probably be fairly constrained in terms of spending.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Mark Wilshire: Co-operative Bank CEO ahead of the Official Cash Rate announcement

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/c7512742-1a51-40f4-aa37-b45601816933/transcript

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist ahead of today's GDP release

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