Rate cuts could arrive early as next month, banks are predicting.

Inflation fell to a 3-year low yesterday, reaching 3.3% in the June Quarter.

Although that falls outside of the Reserve Bank’s target band of 1-3%, banks have reacted positively to the move.

ANZ have cut their three year home loans rates to 6.35% and the two year rates to 6.49%.

ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge they’re predicting two rate cuts before Christmas: a 25 bps cut in October, and another in November.

He said that factors such as pricing pressures, external inflation, and pressures in the housing market are beginning to ease, which the Reserve Bank can use as a positive sign that inflation will remain low once rates are cut.

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Rate cuts could arrive early as next month, banks are predicting. 
Inflation fell to a 3-year low yesterday, reaching 3.3% in the June Quarter. 
Although that falls outside of the Reserve Bank’s target band of 1-3%, banks have reacted positively to the move. 
ANZ have cut their three year home loans rates to 6.35% and the two year rates to 6.49%. 
ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge they’re predicting two rate cuts before Christmas: a 25 bps cut in October, and another in November. 
He said that factors such as pricing pressures, external inflation, and pressures in the housing market are beginning to ease, which the Reserve Bank can use as a positive sign that inflation will remain low once rates are cut. 
LISTEN ABOVE

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the drop in inflation and potential interest rate cuts

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/da44888b-45e0-4d49-ae9b-b1b0017f3ea8/transcript

President Donald Trump has said over the weekend that the United States is in the final stages of negotiations to extend a ceasefire in the US war against Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump appears willing to let negotiations proceed while still threatening to hit Iran’s civilian infrastructure and energy plants if talks fail.

Washington bureau chief for The Guardian David Smith told Ryan Bridge the plan would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and require Iran to get rid of it's enriched uranium. 

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President Donald Trump has said over the weekend that the United States is in the final stages of negotiations to extend a ceasefire in the US war against Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump appears willing to let negotiations proceed while still threatening to hit Iran’s civilian infrastructure and energy plants if talks fail.
Washington bureau chief for The Guardian David Smith told Ryan Bridge the plan would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and require Iran to get rid of it's enriched uranium.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

David Smith: Iran-US ceasefire talks seem to be 'more optimistic than normal'

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/50d653b5-bcef-45fc-8066-b45401436aac/transcript

Even if you're not into football, it's hard not to be excited about a local franchise winning the A-League final. You have to be a real Grinch not to get a smile on your face. Congratulations to all the players, Steve Corica, Nick Becker and the well-heeled who backed them. These guys have momentum. They've created a winning buzz.

There are two things that leapt to mind as the AFC party bus snaked its way through Queen Street yesterday:

1. This is part of a wider story about the rise of football, which now boasts more kiwi players than rugby union. A big part of that is to do with Auckland. Rugby has an Auckland problem which football and league are exploiting. Unlike the Blues, the Warriors and Auckland FC regularly fill stadiums. It's not come out of nowhere. In 2014, a council survey found rugby was 20th on the list of sports played by Aucklanders. In 2016, of the 150,000 registered union players in NZ, just 40,000 came from this region. That was less than 3% of Aucklanders. Rugby is stronger in the provinces. But if getting young players on the field is the aim of the game, then Auckland is king. Same story in politics. You can't win the election if you lose Auckland, as the last lot found out back in 2023.

2. Fans don't really care if the players, coaches, and even owners (in Bill Foley), are Aucklanders, let alone Kiwis. They just care that it's A) football, and B) they're winning. In that order. Another lesson, perhaps, for other codes with sticky rules and criteria?

In the end, it doesn't really matter which sport kids are playing, so long as they're playing something. A kid in sport is kid out of court.

LISTEN ABOVE

Even if you're not into football, it's hard not to be excited about a local franchise winning the A-League final. You have to be a real Grinch not to get a smile on your face. Congratulations to all the players, Steve Corica, Nick Becker and the well-heeled who backed them. These guys have momentum. They've created a winning buzz.
There are two things that leapt to mind as the AFC party bus snaked its way through Queen Street yesterday:
1. This is part of a wider story about the rise of football, which now boasts more kiwi players than rugby union. A big part of that is to do with Auckland.&nbsp;Rugby has an Auckland problem which football and league are exploiting. Unlike the Blues, the Warriors and Auckland FC regularly fill stadiums. It's not come out of nowhere. In 2014, a council survey found rugby was 20th on the list of sports played by Aucklanders. In 2016, of the 150,000 registered union players in NZ, just 40,000 came from this region. That was less than 3% of Aucklanders. Rugby is stronger in the provinces. But if getting young players on the field is the aim of the game, then Auckland is king. Same story in politics. You can't win the election if you lose Auckland, as the last lot found out back in 2023.
2. Fans don't really care if the players, coaches, and even owners (in Bill Foley), are Aucklanders, let alone Kiwis. They just care that it's A) football, and B) they're winning. In that order. Another lesson, perhaps, for other codes with sticky rules and criteria?
In the end, it doesn't really matter which sport kids are playing, so long as they're playing something. A kid in sport is kid out of court.
LISTEN ABOVE

Ryan Bridge: 'A kid in sport is kid out of court'

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/16f9af0d-ae00-4a66-bc20-b454013cc684/transcript

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Monday 25 May.

Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Monday 25 May. 
Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Full Show Podcast: 25 May 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/4520b1ca-4013-4b2e-82a7-b454012ac645/transcript

Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the drop in inflation and potential interest rate cuts

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