The Reserve Bank will be keeping a close eye on this morning's employment data as it mulls over next week's Official Cash Rate decision. 

Most economists expect the unemployment rate will rise. 

But they're now divided on whether the central bank will cut the OCR next week, next month, or in November. 

ASB senior economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge this morning's data should give them a steer on how inflation is tracking. 

He says as the unemployment rate rises and wage growth slows, inflation is likely to come down, meaning interest rates need to come down as well. 

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