Today's inflation numbers could represent calm before the storm. 

Annual inflation's likely to have fallen in the first quarter of this year after ending last year at 3.1%.  

BNZ is picking 3.1%, KiwiBank's is picking 3%, ASB and ANZ are picking 2.9%, and Westpac is picking 2.8%. 

ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge that the future trajectory is more important.  

He says the oil price outlook is highly uncertain, and how long energy prices hold up will really determine how long that inflation rate holds up as well. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Today's inflation numbers could represent calm before the storm.&nbsp;
Annual inflation's likely to have fallen in the first quarter of this year after ending last year at 3.1%. &nbsp;
BNZ is picking 3.1%, KiwiBank's is picking 3%, ASB and ANZ are picking 2.9%, and Westpac is picking 2.8%.&nbsp;
ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge that the future trajectory is more important. &nbsp;
He says the oil price outlook is highly uncertain, and how long energy prices hold up will really determine how long that inflation rate holds up as well.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Mark Smith: ASB Chief Economist looks ahead to the Q1 inflation rate

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/b944f99a-dc3e-4463-b8ca-b4320184d5a8/transcript