Today's inflation numbers could represent calm before the storm. 

Annual inflation's likely to have fallen in the first quarter of this year after ending last year at 3.1%.  

BNZ is picking 3.1%, KiwiBank's is picking 3%, ASB and ANZ are picking 2.9%, and Westpac is picking 2.8%. 

ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge that the future trajectory is more important.  

He says the oil price outlook is highly uncertain, and how long energy prices hold up will really determine how long that inflation rate holds up as well. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Today's inflation numbers could represent calm before the storm.&nbsp;
Annual inflation's likely to have fallen in the first quarter of this year after ending last year at 3.1%. &nbsp;
BNZ is picking 3.1%, KiwiBank's is picking 3%, ASB and ANZ are picking 2.9%, and Westpac is picking 2.8%.&nbsp;
ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge that the future trajectory is more important. &nbsp;
He says the oil price outlook is highly uncertain, and how long energy prices hold up will really determine how long that inflation rate holds up as well.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Mark Smith: ASB Chief Economist looks ahead to the Q1 inflation rate

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/b944f99a-dc3e-4463-b8ca-b4320184d5a8/transcript

Flood-affected Wellington and Wairarapa are continuing to be hit by yet more heavy rain. 

A Red Rain Warning is in effect until 6pm, with many schools and facilities closed, and people in low-lying areas being advised to leave their homes. 

A search for missing Karori man Philip Sutton has been suspended overnight due to dangerous conditions. 

Victoria University Emeritus Professor of Public Policy Jonathan Boston told Ryan Bridge he's concerned about the growing number of people who are uninsured or can't get insurance. 

He says becoming less resilient as a society, because more people can't insure their properties, that will be damaging to everyone. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Flood-affected Wellington and Wairarapa are continuing to be hit by yet more heavy rain.&nbsp;
A Red Rain Warning is in effect until 6pm, with many schools and facilities closed, and people in low-lying areas being advised to leave their homes.&nbsp;
A search for missing Karori man Philip Sutton has been suspended overnight due to dangerous conditions.&nbsp;
Victoria University Emeritus Professor of Public Policy Jonathan Boston told Ryan Bridge he's concerned about the growing number of people who are uninsured or can't get insurance.&nbsp;
He says becoming less resilient as a society, because more people can't insure their properties, that will be damaging to everyone.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Jonathan Boston: Victoria University Emeritus Professor of Public Policy on the impact of severe weather, insurance

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/1cd4b883-d64a-4cbe-99e9-b43201833b6e/transcript

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Tuesday 21st of April 2025, inflation’s expected to ease or hold steady for the first three months of the year, ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith tells Ryan what this when we'll start to see the full impacts of the oil shock.

Erica Stanford’s rolling out help for rural schools hit by fuel costs, Kaitaia Primary School Principal, tells Ryan how big of an impact it will have for schools. 

Insurers are feeling the raft of major weather events, Victoria University Emeritus Professor of Public Policy shares his thoughts. 

Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on the Australian treasurer’s dire warning of the economic impact of the Iran War. 

Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.          

LISTEN ABOVE  

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Tuesday 21st of April 2025, inflation’s expected to ease or hold steady for the first three months of the year, ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith tells Ryan what this when we'll start to see the full impacts of the oil shock.
Erica Stanford’s rolling out help for rural schools hit by fuel costs, Kaitaia Primary School Principal, tells Ryan how big of an impact it will have for schools.&nbsp;
Insurers are feeling the raft of major weather events, Victoria University Emeritus Professor of Public Policy shares his thoughts.&nbsp;
Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on the Australian treasurer’s dire warning of the economic impact of the Iran War.&nbsp;
Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Full Show Podcast: 21 April 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/b5c25f8e-da56-4837-8a58-b432012b9768/transcript

A Northland principal says the Government's latest relief package for teachers struggling with the cost of fuel will help secure more educators for rural areas. 

Relief Teacher Transport Allowance mileage rates are being doubled, and up to 70 schools will get a one-off grant to replace diesel boilers.

Rural schools with fewer than a hundred students will also get a one-off payment to help pay for the extra reimbursements.

Kaitaia Primary School Principal Brendon Morrissey told Ryan Bridge he hopes the packages will lead more teachers to consider working outside major cities. 

He says it will also encourage more training teachers to go to rural areas, which will help small schools struggling with staffing. 

LISTEN ABOVE

A Northland principal says the Government's latest relief package for teachers struggling with the cost of fuel will help secure more educators for rural areas.&nbsp;
Relief Teacher Transport Allowance mileage rates are being doubled, and up to 70 schools will get a one-off grant to replace diesel boilers.
Rural schools with fewer than a hundred students will also get a one-off payment to help pay for the extra reimbursements.
Kaitaia Primary School Principal Brendon Morrissey told Ryan Bridge he hopes the packages will lead more teachers to consider working outside major cities.&nbsp;
He says it will also encourage more training teachers to go to rural areas, which will help small schools struggling with staffing.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

Brendon Morrissey: Kaitaia Primary School Principal on the Government's fuel relief package for teachers

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/4fa1f61f-693f-437f-8d93-b432012ba36e/transcript

Mark Smith: ASB Chief Economist looks ahead to the Q1 inflation rate

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