Stats NZ is set to release GDP data for the December quarter.

The economy rebounded 1.1 percent in the September quarter - but still ended September 0.5 percent smaller than it was a year prior.

Economists reckon the growth's been continuing but has slowed right down.

They're forecasting GDP growth of between 0.2 and 04 percent for the December quarter.

Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold shares his thoughts. 

Stats NZ is set to release GDP data for the December quarter.
The economy rebounded 1.1 percent in the September quarter - but still ended September 0.5 percent smaller than it was a year prior.
Economists reckon the growth's been continuing but has slowed right down.
They're forecasting GDP growth of between 0.2 and 04 percent for the December quarter.
Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold shares his thoughts.&nbsp;

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Kelly Eckhold: Westpac Chief Economist on GDP data

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/e03e7091-c0f5-4a10-9420-b4110119f8d6/transcript

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Thursday 19th of March 2025, Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold shares his forecast for GDP data out today. 

Westport’s losing its only air service, Aviation commentator Irene King shares her thoughts.

The Government's cracking down on criminal migrants and refugees, Immigration lawyer and Chairman of the New Zealand Association of Migration and Investment, Simon Laurent shares his thoughts. 

Plus, US Correspondent Jagruti Dave has the latest on the Senate hearing on worldwide threats and the confirmation hearing of Markwayne Mullin, Trump's pick to replace Kristi Noem. 

Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.          

LISTEN ABOVE  

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Thursday 19th of March 2025, Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold shares his forecast for GDP data out today.&nbsp;
Westport’s losing its only air service, Aviation commentator Irene King shares her thoughts.
The Government's cracking down on criminal migrants and refugees, Immigration lawyer and Chairman of the New Zealand Association of Migration and Investment, Simon Laurent shares his thoughts.&nbsp;
Plus, US Correspondent Jagruti Dave has the latest on the Senate hearing on worldwide threats and the confirmation hearing of Markwayne Mullin, Trump's pick to replace Kristi Noem.&nbsp;
Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Full Show Podcast: 19 March 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/c8bf2cab-613f-4207-9ec7-b411011a860a/transcript

Old, yes. Backward looking, by its nature, but not irrelevant.

We’re tipped to grow around 0.3%-0.4% for Q4 2025. It would mark, barring any surprises, the second straight month of per capita growth on the trot. 

That means average income and standard of living was ticking up on a per persons basis, albeit from a low base.

This is import at because it tells you we're on the move. We were fighting back against the recession.

Some say the number is now irrelevant because of the war and oil supply.

But there are reasons to be optimistic.

We’re looking at alternative supplies. 

Our current stocks are described as stable.

The Reserve Bank is likely to leave interest rates where they are in three weeks. 

And there’s a fork in the road, if inflation bumps, there’ll be temptation to hike rates later. But we can still grow at a clip under 3% if two things happen.

1. We don’t panic but and self-fulfill a fuel shortage and 
2. We learn the lessons Liberation Day.

Trump's actions are chaotic and often quickly reversed. TACO. 

The tariff shock wasn’t so much about a direct affect. It was a knock to business and consumer confidence.

People spent less and business paused hiring and investing because of the uncertainty.

And that blew over. Yes, this is different and involves more  balls in the air.

But the fundamental lesson is the same.

If we freak out. If we let uncertainty rule our lives, we exacerbate the very problem we’re trying avoid in the first place

So I’m relatively optimistic. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

So much is of economics is basically human feelings, when it boils down to it. 

So when today’s GDP read comes out, let’s take stock of where we’ve been. Let’s pat ourselves and our businesses on the back for our contributions.

That number’s not irrelevant, it was hard fought. 

Confidence is key. If we think we can do it again, we will.

Old, yes. Backward looking, by its nature, but not irrelevant.
We’re tipped to grow around 0.3%-0.4% for Q4 2025. It would mark, barring any surprises, the second straight month of per capita growth on the trot.&nbsp;
That means average income and standard of living was ticking up on a per persons basis, albeit from a low base.
This is import at because it tells you we're on the move. We were fighting back against the recession.
Some say the number is now irrelevant because of the war and oil supply.
But there are reasons to be optimistic.
We’re looking at alternative supplies.&nbsp;
Our current stocks are described as stable.
The Reserve Bank is likely to leave interest rates where they are in three weeks.&nbsp;
And there’s a fork in the road, if inflation bumps, there’ll be temptation to hike rates later. But we can still grow at a clip under 3% if two things happen.
1. We don’t panic but and self-fulfill a fuel shortage and&nbsp; 2. We learn the lessons Liberation Day.
Trump's actions are chaotic and often quickly reversed. TACO.&nbsp;
The tariff shock wasn’t so much about a direct affect. It was a knock to business and consumer confidence.
People spent less and business paused hiring and investing because of the uncertainty.
And that blew over. Yes, this is different and involves more &nbsp;balls in the air.
But the fundamental lesson is the same.
If we freak out. If we let uncertainty rule our lives, we exacerbate the very problem we’re trying avoid in the first place
So I’m relatively optimistic. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
So much is of economics is basically human feelings, when it boils down to it.&nbsp;
So when today’s GDP read comes out, let’s take stock of where we’ve been. Let’s pat ourselves and our businesses on the back for our contributions.
That number’s not irrelevant, it was hard fought.&nbsp;
Confidence is key. If we think we can do it again, we will.

Ryan Bridge: Why today’s GDP number is not irrelevant

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/7f0aaeb3-aa52-400c-b666-b4110118df8e/transcript

BNZ’s chief economist Mike Jones says Treasury’s previous worst-case inflation forecast for this year of 3.7% is probably too conservative. 

Annual food costs climbed 4.5% in the year to February but Jones told Ryan Bridge BNZ's 2.9% consumer price index forecast for the first quarter hadn’t changed. 

“It's the second quarter that's really going to bear the brunt of the spike in petrol prices that we are seeing. So we've got a 3.8% forecast for Q2 and inflation stays above 3% now for the rest of the year on our numbers.” 

Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Monday said Treasury had given her a worst-case scenario of 3.7% inflation by the end of the year, assuming a long conflict in Iran - up from the current 3.1%. 

But Jones said that could now be “a bit light” - though he did not believe inflation would go above 4%. 

“Of course, we've probably had the benefit of a few more days and maybe even a week of information and what we've seen in the current environment is that forecasts and assumptions are going out of date pretty quickly.” 

LISTEN ABOVE 

BNZ’s chief economist Mike Jones says Treasury’s previous worst-case inflation forecast for this year of 3.7% is probably too conservative.&nbsp;
Annual food costs climbed 4.5% in the year to February but Jones told Ryan Bridge BNZ's 2.9% consumer price index forecast for the first quarter hadn’t changed.&nbsp;
“It's the second quarter that's really going to bear the brunt of the spike in petrol prices that we are seeing. So we've got a 3.8% forecast for Q2 and inflation stays above 3% now for the rest of the year on our numbers.”&nbsp;
Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Monday said Treasury had given her a worst-case scenario of 3.7% inflation by the end of the year, assuming a long conflict in Iran - up from the current 3.1%.&nbsp;
But Jones said that could now be “a bit light” - though he did not believe inflation would go above 4%.&nbsp;
“Of course, we've probably had the benefit of a few more days and maybe even a week of information and what we've seen in the current environment is that forecasts and assumptions are going out of date pretty quickly.”&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on food costs reaching 4.5%, Treasury's worst case scenario for inflation

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d826dc69-4fc0-40ae-892f-b410017407ae/transcript

Kelly Eckhold: Westpac Chief Economist on GDP data

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