A spike to New Zealand's unemployment rate may be on the cards later this morning.

Multiple bank economists estimate it to land at 4.3%, up from the September quarter's 3.9%. 

ANZ Economist, Henry Russell told Mike Hosking that he agrees.

He says the key driver is the ongoing recovery in labour supply, reflecting the record net-migration we've seen.

LISTEN ABOVE

A spike to New Zealand's unemployment rate may be on the cards later this morning. 
Multiple bank economists estimate it to land at 4.3%, up from the September quarter's 3.9%.  
ANZ Economist, Henry Russell told Mike Hosking that he agrees. 
He says the key driver is the ongoing recovery in labour supply, reflecting the record net-migration we've seen. 
LISTEN ABOVE

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Henry Russell: ANZ Economist on the probably spike to the unemployment rate

The ACT Party is defending voting in favour of homeschooling legislation before it was scrapped after pushback from families. 

The amendments announced last week would've increased checks on children taught at home. 

Education Minister Erica Stanford now concedes homeschooling is more complex than first thought. 

ACT's Laura McClure told Ryan Bridge they were rushed into voting for it. 

She says they didn't have a lot of time to consider the changes and how they would've worked, and whether the homeschooling community was given enough of a say. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

The ACT Party is defending voting in favour of homeschooling legislation before it was scrapped after pushback from families.&nbsp;
The amendments announced last week would've increased checks on children taught at home.&nbsp;
Education Minister Erica Stanford now concedes homeschooling is more complex than first thought.&nbsp;
ACT's Laura McClure told Ryan Bridge they were rushed into voting for it.&nbsp;
She says they didn't have a lot of time to consider the changes and how they would've worked, and whether the homeschooling community was given enough of a say.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Laura McClure: ACT Education Spokesperson on the Government backing down from changing homeschool laws

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/9341f328-e7ef-42c9-9aef-b457017f4123/transcript

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the window for low mortgage rates has closed, with multiple Official Cash Rate hikes expected later this year following the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the rate at 2.25% yesterday. 

The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement said Official Cash Rate (OCR) increases would likely be required this year, predicting inflation would peak at 4.3% in the September quarter before returning to 2% mid-2027. 

Tuffley told Ryan Bridge people had been fixing their mortgages at higher interest rates since it became clear that there would be no further cuts to the OCR and it would soon start increasing. 

The Monetary Policy Committee was predicting the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages would climb to 5.3% over the next year, up from 4.9% in March. Tuffley said that increase was “not too dramatic” although the impacts would show up slowly. 

“Your window for a low mortgage ... really did slam shut late last year, and unfortunately we’ve already seen rates that have climbed to some degree and that will continue.” 

LISTEN ABOVE 

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the window for low mortgage rates has closed, with multiple Official Cash Rate hikes expected later this year following the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the rate at 2.25% yesterday.&nbsp;
The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement said Official Cash Rate (OCR) increases would likely be required this year, predicting inflation would peak at 4.3% in the September quarter before returning to 2% mid-2027.&nbsp;
Tuffley told Ryan Bridge people had been fixing their mortgages at higher interest rates since it became clear that there would be no further cuts to the OCR and it would soon start increasing.&nbsp;
The Monetary Policy Committee was predicting the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages would climb to 5.3% over the next year, up from 4.9% in March. Tuffley said that increase was “not too dramatic” although the impacts would show up slowly.&nbsp;
“Your window for a low mortgage ... really did slam shut late last year, and unfortunately we’ve already seen rates that have climbed to some degree and that will continue.”&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist on the Reserve Bank's decision to hold the OCR at 2.25%

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/b033d894-5e36-465d-a12f-b457017b96bd/transcript

Very few frills or surprises are expected to be in today’s Budget.  

Auckland Business Chamber CEO Simon Bridges predicts a “sensible, prudent, boring, Presbyterian” Budget, with only a few goodies coming from reprioritised spending. 

He told Ryan Bridge he was more interested in the "nuggets" that pointed to the Government's future policy direction. 

He wanted Finance Minister Nicola Willis to “stake some strong positions, defend them and stick with them”, with details on how the Government planned to lift innovation, productivity and growth. 

Bridges believed most people understood restraint was required, but said he wanted to see evidence the Government knew the difference between “frittering” on large social projects and “real investment” that would grow the economy. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Very few frills or surprises are expected to be in today’s Budget. &nbsp;
Auckland Business Chamber CEO Simon Bridges predicts a “sensible, prudent, boring, Presbyterian” Budget, with only a few goodies coming from reprioritised spending.&nbsp;
He told Ryan Bridge he was more interested in the "nuggets" that pointed to the Government's future policy direction.&nbsp;
He wanted Finance Minister Nicola Willis to “stake some strong positions, defend them and stick with them”, with details on how the Government planned to lift innovation, productivity and growth.&nbsp;
Bridges believed most people understood restraint was required, but said he wanted to see evidence the Government knew the difference between “frittering” on large social projects and “real investment” that would grow the economy.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Simon Bridges: Auckland Business Chamber CEO on his expectations for Budget 2026

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/076db849-8647-466b-a7cd-b45701789c48/transcript

Henry Russell: ANZ Economist on the probably spike to the unemployment rate

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