An economist says the economy has some forward motion. 

Stats NZ data shows a 1.1% GDP increase in the September quarter. 

Independent Economist Cameron Bagrie says he expects to see 2 to 3 percent growth over the next 12 months is likely. 

He told Francesca Rudkin there are other statistics trending in a positive direction. 
 
Bagrie says that includes more hours worked and greater bank lending into the business sector. 

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An economist says the economy has some forward motion.&nbsp;
Stats NZ data shows a 1.1% GDP increase in the September quarter.&nbsp;
Independent Economist Cameron Bagrie says he expects to see 2 to 3 percent growth over the next 12 months is likely.&nbsp;
He told Francesca Rudkin there are other statistics trending in a positive direction.&nbsp; &nbsp; Bagrie says that includes more hours worked and greater bank lending into the business sector.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on GDP growth

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/6eaacbe0-bfd0-41c8-8885-b3b7011a5c75/transcript

BNZ’s chief economist Mike Jones says Treasury’s previous worst-case inflation forecast for this year of 3.7% is probably too conservative. 

Annual food costs climbed 4.5% in the year to February but Jones told Ryan Bridge BNZ's 2.9% consumer price index forecast for the first quarter hadn’t changed. 

“It's the second quarter that's really going to bear the brunt of the spike in petrol prices that we are seeing. So we've got a 3.8% forecast for Q2 and inflation stays above 3% now for the rest of the year on our numbers.” 

Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Monday said Treasury had given her a worst-case scenario of 3.7% inflation by the end of the year, assuming a long conflict in Iran - up from the current 3.1%. 

But Jones said that could now be “a bit light” - though he did not believe inflation would go above 4%. 

“Of course, we've probably had the benefit of a few more days and maybe even a week of information and what we've seen in the current environment is that forecasts and assumptions are going out of date pretty quickly.” 

LISTEN ABOVE 

BNZ’s chief economist Mike Jones says Treasury’s previous worst-case inflation forecast for this year of 3.7% is probably too conservative.&nbsp;
Annual food costs climbed 4.5% in the year to February but Jones told Ryan Bridge BNZ's 2.9% consumer price index forecast for the first quarter hadn’t changed.&nbsp;
“It's the second quarter that's really going to bear the brunt of the spike in petrol prices that we are seeing. So we've got a 3.8% forecast for Q2 and inflation stays above 3% now for the rest of the year on our numbers.”&nbsp;
Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Monday said Treasury had given her a worst-case scenario of 3.7% inflation by the end of the year, assuming a long conflict in Iran - up from the current 3.1%.&nbsp;
But Jones said that could now be “a bit light” - though he did not believe inflation would go above 4%.&nbsp;
“Of course, we've probably had the benefit of a few more days and maybe even a week of information and what we've seen in the current environment is that forecasts and assumptions are going out of date pretty quickly.”&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on food costs reaching 4.5%, Treasury's worst case scenario for inflation

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d826dc69-4fc0-40ae-892f-b410017407ae/transcript

China remains vital to our education sector, but the market is shifting. 

A new NZ China Council report shows Chinese students make up about a third of revenue, spending nearly $60 thousand a year. 

But it warns families are increasingly price-conscious and weighing up other countries. 

Executive Director Alistair Crozier told Ryan Bridge New Zealand must keep visa processing world-class and offer more flexible study options. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

China remains vital to our education sector, but the market is shifting.&nbsp;
A new NZ China Council report shows Chinese students make up about a third of revenue, spending nearly $60 thousand a year.&nbsp;
But it warns families are increasingly price-conscious and weighing up other countries.&nbsp;
Executive Director Alistair Crozier told Ryan Bridge New Zealand must keep visa processing world-class and offer more flexible study options.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Alistair Crozier: NZ China Council Executive Director on the need to work to retain Chinese international students

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/c7a977b7-0a9f-4327-9507-b410016d28f5/transcript

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast 2025 Wednesday the 18th of March, Beef mince and Steak are driving the latest spike in food prices, BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones shares his thoughts. 

Resource Minister Shane Jones is putting money into geothermal; Mercury Energy CEO Stew Hamilton tells Ryan how big of an impact this will have. 

We’re in a global scramble for Chinese students and the stakes are high, New Zealand China Council Executive Director Alastair Crozier shares why. 

Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits UK to agree a new defence partnership aimed at tackling cheap attack drone attacks and an English council bans any more memorial benches saying it's overwhelmed by them.

Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.          

LISTEN ABOVE  

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast 2025 Wednesday the 18th of March, Beef mince and Steak are driving the latest spike in food prices, BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones shares his thoughts.&nbsp;
Resource Minister Shane Jones is putting money into geothermal; Mercury Energy CEO Stew Hamilton tells Ryan how big of an impact this will have.&nbsp;
We’re in a global scramble for Chinese students and the stakes are high, New Zealand China Council Executive Director Alastair Crozier shares why.&nbsp;
Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits UK to agree a new defence partnership aimed at tackling cheap attack drone attacks and an English council bans any more memorial benches saying it's overwhelmed by them.
Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Full Show Podcast: 18 March 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/5db0d5af-48be-4116-800d-b410011a91c7/transcript

Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on GDP growth

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