An economist says the economy has some forward motion. 

Stats NZ data shows a 1.1% GDP increase in the September quarter. 

Independent Economist Cameron Bagrie says he expects to see 2 to 3 percent growth over the next 12 months is likely. 

He told Francesca Rudkin there are other statistics trending in a positive direction. 
 
Bagrie says that includes more hours worked and greater bank lending into the business sector. 

LISTEN ABOVE

An economist says the economy has some forward motion.&nbsp;
Stats NZ data shows a 1.1% GDP increase in the September quarter.&nbsp;
Independent Economist Cameron Bagrie says he expects to see 2 to 3 percent growth over the next 12 months is likely.&nbsp;
He told Francesca Rudkin there are other statistics trending in a positive direction.&nbsp; &nbsp; Bagrie says that includes more hours worked and greater bank lending into the business sector.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on GDP growth

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/6eaacbe0-bfd0-41c8-8885-b3b7011a5c75/transcript

Like it or not, next year's big dance in politics will ultimately be decided by the few, not the many.

Most MMP elections have been. Minnows hold the keys to the kingdom. 

Be it Winston with his best result ever or Te Pati Māori with an overhang - 2026 won’t be a 2020 landslide.

The difference this time is how extreme some of the smaller parties, more to the point, some of their MPs, have become - think Takuta on Indians and Simon Court on Palestine.

It’s not just rhetoric, but policy, too.

A separate Māori parliament, re-nationalising power companies, you name it, they'll go there.

The temptation for the behemoths, the broad churches, is to emulate what’s getting traction. To dip your toe in the pool of radical ideas. To be establishment without looking or sounding like it.

Trump and the MAGA movement are the best example of this.

In the UK, parties that have been around since Moses was a linebacker are being absolutely whipped in the polls by newer upstarts with one thing on their pledge cards: radical change.

The Conservatives have been around almost 200 years. Reform UK? Six.

The big issues differ - our cost-of-living malaise is their immigration. 

So the temptation must be to embrace a bit of that radical spirit. Labour might yet do that, we just don’t know what they’re cooking up.

My prediction? Establishment parties will do what established parties do.

Stick to the script, copy/paste their policies, hug the centre like a koala a tree, and hope their buddies grab enough from the fraying edges to get them across the line.

Their bet is that crises come and go but establishments don’t, even though the Brits and Americans show us they can and do.

Like it or not, next year's big dance in politics will ultimately be decided by the few, not the many.
Most MMP elections have been. Minnows hold the keys to the kingdom.&nbsp;
Be it Winston with his best result ever or Te Pati Māori with an overhang -&nbsp;2026 won’t be a 2020 landslide.
The difference this time is how extreme some of the smaller parties, more to the point, some of their MPs, have become - think Takuta on Indians and Simon Court on Palestine.
It’s not just rhetoric, but policy, too.
A separate Māori parliament, re-nationalising power companies, you name it, they'll go there.
The temptation for the behemoths, the broad churches, is to emulate what’s getting traction. To dip your toe in the pool of radical ideas.&nbsp;To be establishment without looking or sounding like it.
Trump and the MAGA movement are the best example of this.
In the UK, parties that have been around since Moses was a linebacker are being absolutely whipped in the polls by newer upstarts with one thing on their pledge cards: radical change.
The Conservatives have been around almost 200 years.&nbsp;Reform UK? Six.
The big issues differ - our cost-of-living malaise is their immigration.&nbsp;
So the temptation must be to embrace a bit of that radical spirit. Labour might yet do that, we just don’t know what they’re cooking up.
My prediction? Establishment parties will do what established parties do.
Stick to the script, copy/paste their policies, hug the centre like a koala a tree, and hope their buddies grab enough from the fraying edges to get them across the line.
Their bet is that crises come and go but establishments don’t, even though the Brits and Americans show us they can and do.

Best of 2025: Ryan Bridge - My prediction for the 2026 election

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/a5bd288d-68dc-4063-8f58-b3d200297d89/transcript

Do you know what's really starts to rub me the wrong way? 

It's governments telling us to do more things. 

This morning, we've got the government coming out with yet another hotline.

Sounds fancy. Sounds efficient. 

It's a hotline to report road cones. A road cone tipline. 

Sorry, but if the problem is that there are too many road cones on the road, and they're unnecessary for the work being carried out —which half of them appear to be— then why do you need us to tell you that?

Surely if we just had better, clearer rules and less bullshit, we wouldn't need a road cone tipline. A pothole tipline. A 105 theft tipline. A beneficiary tipline.

Either you know what you're doing and you've got smart people and smart systems, or you don't. 

And every time I hear of another tipline I realise, they have no idea. 

Tiplines are the equivalent of a safety calming measure. Those weird speed bumps or narrowing roads, designed to make people feel better when driving around.

All they really do is piss people off and reveal how rubbish your road designs are to begin with. 

Just think about this: 

There's a bunch of road cones in a dumb place on a busy road. WorkSafe and NZTA and Council people drive past this busy spot every day. 

Barbara in her little Honda Civic, she drives past. She calls it in.

Barry in his truck and trailer. He calls it in.

Sally picks the kids up at 3pm from school every day. 

They all ring the tipline. They all report the same thing. It will then be somebody's job to sort through the tips. Somebody else will triage the tips. That's two jobs.

In three weeks, Barry, Sally, and Barb get a letter. Because the post only runs two days a week. 

The letter says we're looking into the issue for you. 

Meanwhile, 100 government or council people have walked or driven past the road cone Armageddon and nothing's changed. 

Tiplines are plasters over grenades.

The only time I want to ring a tipline is speak to the actual dump. 

In its first 156 days in office, the National-led government has set up 37 reviews, inquiries or advisory panels – some of which are being led by former ministers, including Bill English, Steven Joyce, Murray McCully and Roger Sowry.

Do you know what's really starts to rub me the wrong way?&nbsp;
It's governments telling us to do more things.&nbsp;
This morning, we've got the government coming out with yet another hotline.
Sounds fancy. Sounds efficient.&nbsp;
It's a hotline to report road cones.&nbsp;A road cone tipline.&nbsp;
Sorry, but if the problem is that there are too many road cones on the road, and they're unnecessary for the work being carried out —which half of them appear to be— then why do you need us to tell you that?
Surely if we just had better, clearer rules and less bullshit, we wouldn't need a road cone tipline. A pothole tipline. A 105 theft tipline. A beneficiary tipline.
Either you know what you're doing and you've got smart people and smart systems, or you don't.&nbsp;
And every time I hear of another tipline I realise, they have no idea.&nbsp;
Tiplines are the equivalent of a safety calming measure. Those weird speed bumps or narrowing roads, designed to make people feel better when driving around.
All they really do is piss people off and reveal how rubbish your road designs are to begin with.&nbsp;
Just think about this:&nbsp;
There's a bunch of road cones in a dumb place on a busy road. WorkSafe and NZTA and Council people drive past this busy spot every day.&nbsp;
Barbara in her little Honda Civic, she drives past. She calls it in.
Barry in his truck and trailer. He calls it in.
Sally picks the kids up at 3pm from school every day.&nbsp;
They all ring the tipline. They all report the same thing. It will then be somebody's job to sort through the tips. Somebody else will triage the tips. That's two jobs.
In three weeks, Barry, Sally, and Barb get a letter. Because the post only runs two days a week.&nbsp;
The letter says we're looking into the issue for you.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, 100 government or council people have walked or driven past the road cone Armageddon and nothing's changed.&nbsp;
Tiplines are plasters over grenades.
The only time I want to ring a tipline is speak to the actual dump.&nbsp;
In its first 156 days in office, the National-led government has set up 37 reviews, inquiries or advisory panels – some of which are being led by former ministers, including Bill English, Steven Joyce, Murray McCully and Roger Sowry.

Best of 2025: Ryan Bridge - We shouldn't have to work for the government

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/bd5cf552-d046-4bd9-8f0d-b3c4002950dd/transcript

I went out for lunch to a café the other day and our table was served by a couple of waiters who all seemed to have a similar vibe about them.

They just. Did. Not. Seem. To. Care.

No smiling. No banter. No small talk or polite conversation. Just this blank look on their faces.

You sit there and think “did they hear me”? You ever so politely repeat yourself in case they didn’t. 

But they did. They got it. There’s just no engagement. Face colder than a witch's tit. No refills of your water. No "would you like another coffee?"

Like, hello!? Is anybody in there? Is anyone home? Why are you all moving so slowly? Shouldn’t you be rushing the joint taking orders and filling coffees? 

When I was young it was drilled into us: when you’re waiting tables and taking orders. You work your way up from "dish pig" to front of house. You basically run round busy as a bee, trying to impress your boss, trying to win your guests over. Taking wagers of who might get a tip. 

"Can I help you, sir? What more can I get you?" You’d help the elderly into their seats. You’d bend over backwards to make everyone happy. 

And these guys are on at least $23 an hour. 

And I know what you’re thinking, maybe I’m the a-hole. Maybe I’ve forgotten mum’s many sermons on good manners and etiquette.

So I asked the people who I was out to lunch with - they all thought the same thing. I asked friends who are teachers, I asked parents with kids around that age.

Guess what? They’ve all noticed the same thing happening.

Hell, there’s even a TikTok trend called ‘the Gen Z stare', which describes what I saw at the café - the vacant look a Gen Zer gives in response to a question or statement. If it’s in TikTok then it must be a thing, right?

So the question is why?

Was it Covid? Was it everyone wearing masks? So much of how we communicate is through facial expressions, maybe they’ve missed out on years of social queues and norms? Is the smartphones? Is it both?

Or, maybe, just maybe, they just don’t give a shit?

Maybe we have on our hands a generation of young people who don’t really think they NEED to be bothering with mundane things like work. 

Disclaimer: this is is obviously not an entire generation of young people. And some people are just shy. I get that. We've all had excellent experiences. But, y'know. Is this a thing you too have noticed? 

I went out for lunch to a café the other day and our table was served by a couple of waiters who all seemed to have a similar vibe about them.
They just. Did. Not. Seem. To. Care.
No smiling. No banter. No small talk or polite conversation. Just this blank look on their faces.
You sit there and think “did they hear me”?&nbsp;You ever so politely repeat yourself in case they didn’t.&nbsp;
But they did. They got it. There’s just no engagement. Face colder than a witch's tit. No refills of your water. No "would you like another coffee?"
Like, hello!? Is anybody in there? Is anyone home? Why are you all moving so slowly? Shouldn’t you be rushing the joint taking orders and filling coffees?&nbsp;
When I was young it was drilled into us: when you’re waiting tables and taking orders. You work your way up from "dish pig" to front of house. You basically run round busy as a bee, trying to impress your boss, trying to win your guests over. Taking wagers of who might get a tip.&nbsp;
"Can I help you, sir? What more can I get you?" You’d help the elderly into their seats. You’d bend over backwards to make everyone happy.&nbsp;
And these guys are on at least $23 an hour.&nbsp;
And I know what you’re thinking, maybe I’m the a-hole. Maybe I’ve forgotten mum’s many sermons on good manners and etiquette.
So I asked the people who I was out to lunch with - they all thought the same thing. I asked friends who are teachers, I asked parents with kids around that age.
Guess what? They’ve all noticed the same thing happening.
Hell, there’s even a TikTok trend called ‘the Gen Z stare', which describes what I saw at the café - the vacant look a Gen Zer gives in response to a question or statement. If it’s in TikTok then it must be a thing, right?
So the question is why?
Was it Covid? Was it everyone wearing masks? So much of how we communicate is through facial expressions, maybe they’ve missed out on years of social queues and norms? Is the smartphones? Is it both?
Or, maybe, just maybe, they just don’t give a shit?
Maybe we have on our hands a generation of young people who don’t really think they NEED to be bothering with mundane things like work.&nbsp;
Disclaimer: this is is obviously not an entire generation of young people. And some people are just shy. I get that. We've all had excellent experiences. But, y'know. Is this a thing you too have noticed?&nbsp;

Best of 2025: Ryan Bridge - The Gen Z stare

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d98d997c-fbcb-46c8-9a67-b3bd0029916c/transcript

Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on GDP growth

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