New Zealand might not be entirely out of the woods with high inflation. 

The Consumers Price Index rose 4.7% in the year to December, a two year low. 

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research says inflation is still above the 1-3% Reserve Bank target. 

Principal Economist Christina Leung told Roman Travers that while she expects the figure to get under the target this year, some factors are putting that at risk. 

She says things like the Red Sea attacks are driving up shipping costs.

LISTEN ABOVE

New Zealand might not be entirely out of the woods with high inflation.  
The Consumers Price Index rose 4.7% in the year to December, a two year low.  
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research says inflation is still above the 1-3% Reserve Bank target.  
Principal Economist Christina Leung told Roman Travers that while she expects the figure to get under the target this year, some factors are putting that at risk.  
She says things like the Red Sea attacks are driving up shipping costs. 
LISTEN ABOVE

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Christina Leung: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Principal Economist on inflation rates dropping to 4.7%

Farmers are wary of the opening milk price forecast.   

Fonterra's latest financial update puts the current season's midpoint payout forecast at $9.70.  

It's up slightly next season at $9.75, but signals it could end up as low as $8 or as high as $11, depending on global events.  

Federated Farmers Dairy Chair Karl Dean told Andrew Dickens farmers are optimistic, but cautious of the range.   

He says Fonterra's taking the easy route with the low point, but they've warned farmers of that.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

Farmers are wary of the opening milk price forecast. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Fonterra's latest financial update puts the current season's midpoint payout forecast at $9.70. &nbsp;
It's up slightly next season at $9.75, but signals it could end up as low as $8 or as high as $11, depending on global events. &nbsp;
Federated Farmers Dairy Chair Karl Dean told Andrew Dickens farmers are optimistic, but cautious of the range. &nbsp;&nbsp;
He says Fonterra's taking the easy route with the low point, but they've warned farmers of that. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Karl Dean: Federated Farmers Dairy Chair on the opening milk price forecast

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/11ed9588-4400-4703-b7e0-b45900007aeb/transcript

Mixed feelings over the Government’s shift from university study toward trades training. 

The Budget doubles Trades Academy places to 20,000 over four years, giving more secondary students access to vocational training while at school. 

It's being funded by scrapping Fees Free. 

Canterbury's Darfield High School Principal Andy England told Andrew Dickens students who were undecided about university will feel the impact of losing the scheme. 

But he says for many years we've been gearing school for those going to university and has advocated for this to be rebalanced. 

England says Trades Academies work well at senior year levels, when student want to try out polytechs or trades while staying in school. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Mixed feelings over the Government’s shift from university study toward trades training.&nbsp;
The Budget doubles Trades Academy places to 20,000 over four years, giving more secondary students access to vocational training while at school.&nbsp;
It's being funded by scrapping Fees Free.&nbsp;
Canterbury's Darfield High School Principal Andy England told Andrew Dickens students who were undecided about university will feel the impact of losing the scheme.&nbsp;
But he says for many years we've been gearing school for those going to university and has advocated for this to be rebalanced.&nbsp;
England says Trades Academies work well at senior year levels, when student want to try out polytechs or trades while staying in school.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Andy England: Darfield High School Principal on the bolstering of trades, axing of Fees Free in Budget 2026

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/e82f93f5-9f8d-4dad-bcc6-b458018721a1/transcript

A former Finance Minister has praised the direction of the Budget, but says there are some “heroic assumptions” about getting back to surplus in 2028/29. 

It comes sooner than previously forecast, the date based on the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC.   

Ruth Richardson told Andrew Dickens that the economy is resting on the shifting sands of what may happen in the Middle East, so we shouldn’t be banking it as a surplus slam dunk. 

“Debt continues to rise, the operating allowance continues to rise, numbers can change, there are a lot of heroic assumptions in those numbers, and it's all on a promise that while they're spending for now, we will have savings later,” Richardson said. 

She also warned if Superannuation was not addressed it would “monster” the Budget. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

A former Finance Minister has praised the direction of the Budget, but says there are some “heroic assumptions” about getting back to surplus in 2028/29.&nbsp;
It comes sooner than previously forecast, the date based on the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Ruth Richardson told Andrew Dickens that the economy is resting on the shifting sands of what may happen in the Middle East, so we shouldn’t be banking it as a surplus slam dunk.&nbsp;
“Debt continues to rise, the operating allowance continues to rise, numbers can change, there are a lot of heroic assumptions in those numbers, and it's all on a promise that while they're spending for now, we will have savings later,” Richardson said.&nbsp;
She also warned if Superannuation was not addressed it would “monster” the Budget.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Ruth Richardson: Former Finance Minister and Taxpayers' Union Chair unpacks Budget 2026

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/8a57d747-8fff-4548-b26a-b458017f9e41/transcript

Christina Leung: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Principal Economist on inflation rates dropping to 4.7%

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