An economist is pointing out a potential problem with the Reserve Bank’s economic forecast. 

The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Anna Breman, has decided to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for now. 

It says while inflation is above the target band, the economy still needs some time to recover. 

Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge that the problem with the Reserve Bank’s forecast is the assumed uptick in productivity growth. 

He says they’re assuming the supply side capacity, via productivity growth, will improve, which will keep inflation lower, but if we can’t get supply side capacity up, inflation will prove to be a lot stickier.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

An economist is pointing out a potential problem with the Reserve Bank’s economic forecast.&nbsp;
The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Anna Breman, has decided to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for now.&nbsp;
It says while inflation is above the target band, the economy still needs some time to recover.&nbsp;
Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge that the problem with the Reserve Bank’s forecast is the assumed uptick in productivity growth.&nbsp;
He says they’re assuming the supply side capacity, via productivity growth, will improve, which will keep inflation lower, but if we can’t get supply side capacity up, inflation will prove to be a lot stickier. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on the OCR being held at 2.25%

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/4b9a349c-b91a-46c1-ad81-b3f50175fb23/transcript

Two new blood cancer medications could soon be available to patients as pills, with one accessible through private clinics. 

Pharmac will consider funding treatments for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, which could be available from May 1st. 

They can be taken in pill form and take away the need for chemotherapy. 

Blood Cancer NZ CEO Tim Edmonds told Ryan Bridge the medications take a targeted approach to first-line treatment, which means they’ll be able to access targeted therapy instead of chemotherapy once diagnosed. 

He says instead of visiting the hospital up to 20 times in six months, they can take an oral tablet every day from home and actually get better outcomes.  

LISTEN ABOVE 

Two new blood cancer medications could soon be available to patients as pills, with one accessible through private clinics.&nbsp;
Pharmac will consider funding treatments for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, which could be available from May 1st.&nbsp;
They can be taken in pill form and take away the need for chemotherapy.&nbsp;
Blood Cancer NZ CEO Tim Edmonds told Ryan Bridge the medications take a targeted approach to first-line treatment, which means they’ll be able to access targeted therapy instead of chemotherapy once diagnosed.&nbsp;
He says instead of visiting the hospital up to 20 times in six months, they can take an oral tablet every day from home and actually get better outcomes. &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Tim Edmonds: Blood Cancer NZ CEO on Pharmac considering funding two new blood cancer treatments

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/16615864-1290-4a2e-ba7e-b3f5016e19c5/transcript

Questions around why action wasn't taken sooner following a fatal dog attack in Northland. 

62-year-old Mihiata Te Rore was killed by three dogs on Tuesday as she visited a home in Kaihu, north of Dargaville.

Local MP Shane Jones says jail terms should be considered for owners of what he labels 'homicidal dogs'.

Animal behaviour expert Mark Vette told Ryan Bridge animal management were aware of the dogs, so it's a shame they didn't step in earlier. 

He says this clearly shows something was wrong, and that they were aware of the high-risk situation.

LISTEN ABOVE

Questions around why action wasn't taken sooner following a fatal dog attack in Northland.&nbsp;
62-year-old Mihiata Te Rore was killed by three dogs on Tuesday as she visited a home in Kaihu, north of Dargaville.
Local MP Shane Jones says jail terms should be considered for owners of what he labels 'homicidal dogs'.
Animal behaviour expert Mark Vette told Ryan Bridge animal management were aware of the dogs, so it's a shame they didn't step in earlier.&nbsp;
He says this clearly shows something was wrong, and that they were aware of the high-risk situation.
LISTEN ABOVE

Mark Vette: Animal behaviour expert on calls for jail sentences for owners of roaming animals

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/a2a6d4b8-f035-4b6d-a557-b3f501302138/transcript

So the OCR decision was largely as expected yesterday, but what the Reserve Bank made very clear is where they think growth will come from.

As we’ve spoken about on the show lately, house prices aren’t running away here like in Australia, bar Queenstown.

In previous recoveries, the wealth effect kicks in and people go shopping when their house prices go up.

But this time the bank says prices will stay flat, then pick up again later this year, but only at the rate of income growth. 

In other words, the opposite of what we’re used over the past few decades. 

Usually, as anyone who’s tried to buy a house will know, the price of a three-beddy in Auckland grows quicker than your salary. That’s all changed now because we have more supply, at least according to the bank.

So without the tickle up, where does economic growth come from?

Anna Breman answered that question specifically yesterday and was pretty clear: agricultural exports, tourism, and more recently, some signs that manufacturing is picking up. These are industries that bring us money from offshore. They provide the basis for other sectors, like services, to pick up.

If you’re a farmer or tourism operator in Queenstown or Rotorua, you should feel proud of that.

And we, through our government, should support them. 

That means staying off their backs and letting them get on doing what they do best: feeding the world and providing unforgettable experiences for visitors.

On manufacturing, it’s hard to ignore the energy debate.

If we don’t have a steady and reliable supply of electricity, trying to run a factory or a mill, as the central North Island has learnt the hard way just recently, becomes very difficult.

So while LNG and coal for Huntly, or methane target changes, might sound bad, they’re basically what ensure we support the industries that support us.

What the Reserve Bank said unequivocally yesterday if that without them, there is no growth. 

And without growth, there are no new jobs. There ain’t more tax. No new hospitals. Etc. etc.

This is not to say it’s a perfect world. There are costs to not doing environmental stuff. But for them to work, you need the world on board.

In the meantime, the question is whether we can afford to bite the economic hand that feeds us.

If you listen to the bank, it wouldn't appear so.

So the OCR decision was largely as expected yesterday, but what the Reserve Bank made very clear is where they think growth will come from.
As we’ve spoken about on the show lately, house prices aren’t running away here like in Australia, bar Queenstown.
In previous recoveries, the wealth effect kicks in and people go shopping when their house prices go up.
But this time the bank says prices will stay flat, then pick up again later this year, but only at the rate of income growth.&nbsp;
In other words, the opposite of what we’re used over the past few decades.&nbsp;
Usually, as anyone who’s tried to buy a house will know, the price of a three-beddy in Auckland grows quicker than your salary.&nbsp;That’s all changed now because we have more supply, at least according to the bank.
So without the tickle up, where does economic growth come from?
Anna Breman answered that question specifically yesterday and was pretty clear: agricultural exports, tourism, and more recently, some signs that manufacturing is picking up. These are industries that bring us money from offshore. They provide the basis for other sectors, like services, to pick up.
If you’re a farmer or tourism operator in Queenstown or Rotorua, you should feel proud of that.
And we, through our government, should support them.&nbsp;
That means staying off their backs and letting them get on doing what they do best: feeding the world and providing unforgettable experiences for visitors.
On manufacturing, it’s hard to ignore the energy debate.
If we don’t have a steady and reliable supply of electricity, trying to run a factory or a mill, as the central North Island has learnt the hard way just recently, becomes very difficult.
So while LNG and coal for Huntly, or methane target changes, might sound bad, they’re basically what ensure we support the industries that support us.
What the Reserve Bank said unequivocally yesterday if that without them, there is no growth.&nbsp;
And without growth, there are no new jobs. There ain’t more tax. No new hospitals. Etc. etc.
This is not to say it’s a perfect world. There are costs to not doing environmental stuff. But for them to work, you need the world on board.
In the meantime, the question is whether we can afford to bite the economic hand that feeds us.
If you listen to the bank, it wouldn't appear so.

Ryan Bridge: House prices no longer lead economic growth

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/6808ecd6-c442-4084-a502-b3f5011f44ed/transcript

Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on the OCR being held at 2.25%

In 1 playlist(s)

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Social links

Follow podcast

Recent clips