Inflation is coming dangerously close to the top end of the Reserve Bank’s target band. 

It’s reached 2.7% year-on-year – the main drivers being council rates, increased rents, electricity prices, and food prices. 

Independent economist Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge that there’s not only cyclical damage to the economy from the Reserve Bank’s efforts to curb inflation, but also significant structural issues. 

He says that productivity used to be, on average, 1.4% per year, but it’s now down to 0.3%. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Inflation is coming dangerously close to the top end of the Reserve Bank’s target band.&nbsp;
It’s reached 2.7% year-on-year – the main drivers being council rates, increased rents, electricity prices, and food prices.&nbsp;
Independent economist Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge that there’s not only cyclical damage to the economy from the Reserve Bank’s efforts to curb inflation, but also significant structural issues.&nbsp;
He says that productivity used to be, on average, 1.4% per year, but it’s now down to 0.3%.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on inflation reaching 2.7%

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/cb080972-6423-4dc3-9880-b3210180c2d1/transcript

Treasury has released numbers on the potential fallout for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war.

It estimates that under a worst‑case scenario — a conflict lasting until the end of the year with elevated oil prices — inflation would rise from 3.1 percent to 3.7 percent.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis says that number is too high - but is lower than Australia's current inflation - which is sitting at 3.8 percent. 

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge forecasting in this climate is difficult. 

He says other spikes in oil prices have led to higher inflation - but this will all depend on how long the conflict lasts. 

LISTEN ABOVE

Treasury has released numbers on the potential fallout for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war.
It estimates that under a worst‑case scenario — a conflict lasting until the end of the year with elevated oil prices — inflation would rise from 3.1 percent to 3.7 percent.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis says that number is too high - but is lower than Australia's current inflation - which is sitting at 3.8 percent.&nbsp;
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge forecasting in this climate is difficult.&nbsp;
He says other spikes in oil prices have led to higher inflation - but this will all depend on how long the conflict lasts.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist on worst case scenario for NZ economy from Iran War

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/db58740d-c661-4573-a990-b40f011cd67c/transcript

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 17th of March 2025, ASB's Chief Economist Nick Tuffley talks the "worst case scenario" for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war. 

And Ryan explains why he agrees with Nicola Willis' call to not splash the cash in response to the Iran crisis. 

Hospitality NZ want the government's liquor law changes to go further - they tell Ryan what exactly they want. 

Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.          

LISTEN ABOVE  

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 17th of March 2025, ASB's Chief Economist Nick Tuffley talks the "worst case scenario" for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war.&nbsp;
And Ryan explains why he agrees with Nicola Willis' call to not splash the cash in response to the Iran crisis.&nbsp;
Hospitality NZ want the government's liquor law changes to go further - they tell Ryan what exactly they want.&nbsp;
Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Full Show Podcast: 17 March 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/a78531d3-b40b-479f-b4cb-b40f011a8c13/transcript

A 1pm presser and Covid‑style alert levels.

This fuel price spike is bringing back bad memories from those dark days of lockdown.

But a few facts help put things in perspective.

There are a lot of scenarios and best guesses floating around, but the reality is we’re not yet short on fuel. That’s at least weeks away, we’re told.

The economy is in recovery, and even the worst‑case scenarios still have us growing at a little under 3% — about half a percent off pre‑war predictions.

The other big difference is the response. Interest rates, even if inflation hits the high 3s, aren’t expected to shoot up dramatically or immediately, because demand falls as people put less petrol in the Honda.

If you live rurally, or don’t have a Grey Lynn tractor — a.k.a. a Tesla — the price of fuel will sting.

But it won’t cause the sort of catastrophic, long‑term damage that lockdowns and Covid supply disruptions did.
Nicola Willis, who fronted yesterday’s 1pm media event, made it pretty clear that excise cuts and other expensive relief (think cost‑of‑living payments) aren’t off the table — but they’re not top of the list either.

This government is a different beast from the one that came before it. They’ve learned the lesson — one we’re currently paying for — about splashing the cash to stay popular.

They’ve resisted demands for stimulus despite two bitter years of recession.

Spending big when inflation is about to spike would completely undermine their political credibility.

Which means that when something bad happens — which it is, or is about to — we’ll feel the effects in real time.

And that’s no bad thing.

A 1pm presser and Covid‑style alert levels.
This fuel price spike is bringing back bad memories from those dark days of lockdown.
But a few facts help put things in perspective.
There are a lot of scenarios and best guesses floating around, but the reality is we’re not yet short on fuel. That’s at least weeks away, we’re told.
The economy is in recovery, and even the worst‑case scenarios still have us growing at a little under 3% — about half a percent off pre‑war predictions.
The other big difference is the response. Interest rates, even if inflation hits the high 3s, aren’t expected to shoot up dramatically or immediately, because demand falls as people put less petrol in the Honda.
If you live rurally, or don’t have a Grey Lynn tractor — a.k.a. a Tesla — the price of fuel will sting.
But it won’t cause the sort of catastrophic, long‑term damage that lockdowns and Covid supply disruptions did. Nicola Willis, who fronted yesterday’s 1pm media event, made it pretty clear that excise cuts and other expensive relief (think cost‑of‑living payments) aren’t off the table — but they’re not top of the list either.
This government is a different beast from the one that came before it. They’ve learned the lesson — one we’re currently paying for — about splashing the cash to stay popular.
They’ve resisted demands for stimulus despite two bitter years of recession.
Spending big when inflation is about to spike would completely undermine their political credibility.
Which means that when something bad happens — which it is, or is about to — we’ll feel the effects in real time.
And that’s no bad thing.

Ryan Bridge: Nicola Willis is right not to splash the cash

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/db4a091e-3bb0-438f-8c48-b40f011ac699/transcript

Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on inflation reaching 2.7%

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