Surging global oil prices and bond yields could keep inflation higher than expected and force the Reserve Bank to raise the OCR faster than expected. 

Some economists now expect the Official Cash Rate to reach 4% before the end of the year. 

The Government says the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update —due out in two weeks— will try to reflect changes in borrowing costs. 

Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen told Andrew Dickens further conflict in the Middle East is pushing up oil prices, as fears grow about an AI bubble burst. 

He says both of these things are happening, amidst mounting concerns about government debt. 

LISTEN ABOVE  

Surging global oil prices and bond yields could keep inflation higher than expected and force the Reserve Bank to raise the OCR faster than expected.&nbsp;
Some economists now expect the Official Cash Rate to reach 4% before the end of the year.&nbsp;
The Government says the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update —due out in two weeks— will try to reflect changes in borrowing costs.&nbsp;
Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen told Andrew Dickens further conflict in the Middle East is pushing up oil prices, as fears grow about an AI bubble burst.&nbsp;
He says both of these things are happening, amidst mounting concerns about government debt.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on how an uncertain global bond market could impact New Zealand

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/032c18e5-ab12-4334-a1d1-b4c501837a44/transcript

Net migration is back on the rise as the brain drain eases. 

Stats NZ data shows the number of people moving here in the year to July outnumbered those leaving by 20,300. 

Annually, that net migration has risen almost 55%, with arrivals up 5% and departures down 4%. 

Immigration Expert Simon Laurent told Andrew Dickens that much as it has in the past, the security and safety of New Zealand is making it an attractive place to put down roots. 

LISTEN ABOVE  

Net migration is back on the rise as the brain drain eases.&nbsp;
Stats NZ data shows the number of people moving here in the year to July outnumbered those leaving by 20,300.&nbsp;
Annually, that net migration has risen almost 55%, with arrivals up 5% and departures down 4%.&nbsp;
Immigration Expert Simon Laurent told Andrew Dickens that much as it has in the past, the security and safety of New Zealand is making it an attractive place to put down roots.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Simon Laurent: NZ Association of Migration and Investment Chair on net migration hitting a two year high

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/c17805cb-7081-4a69-8dec-b4c5018a13ec/transcript

July's record tourism numbers are being seen as a reflection of investment finally paying off.   

Stats NZ data shows 256,600 overseas tourists arrived during the month, overtaking pre-Covid numbers from July 2019 by 0.4%. 

Rotorua Mayor Tania Tapsell told Andrew Dickens the effort from local councils, regional tourism operators, and the Government is bearing fruit.  

She says July is usually a quiet time, so the big win is the 70% jump in business events that keep the likes of Rotorua afloat. 

LISTEN ABOVE  

July's record tourism numbers are being seen as a reflection of investment finally paying off. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Stats NZ data shows 256,600 overseas tourists arrived during the month, overtaking pre-Covid numbers from July 2019 by 0.4%.&nbsp;
Rotorua Mayor Tania Tapsell told Andrew Dickens the effort from local councils, regional tourism operators, and the Government is bearing fruit. &nbsp;
She says July is usually a quiet time, so the big win is the 70% jump in business events that keep the likes of Rotorua afloat.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Tania Tapsell: Rotorua Mayor on tourism arrivals overtaking pre-Covid numbers

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/5a7a64d5-8bb8-4fe4-8933-b4c5012c8416/transcript

On the Early Edition with Andrew Dickens Full Show Podcast Tuesday the 15th of September 2026, international visitor numbers are finally back above pre-Covid levels, Rotorua Mayor Tania Tapsell tells Andrew how the government's tourism push has helped. 

Migrant arrivals for the year were up 5%, immigration expert Simon Laurent shares his thoughts. 

Our debt situation might be catching up to us as the global bond markets start to get anxious, Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen explains. 

Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on Pauline Hanson asked to apologise over nasty and divisive comments about First Nations Australians and the first confirmed case of bird flu, an endangered an Aussie sea lion.

Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.          

LISTEN ABOVE  

On the Early Edition with Andrew Dickens Full Show Podcast Tuesday the 15th of September 2026, international visitor numbers are finally back above pre-Covid levels, Rotorua Mayor Tania Tapsell tells Andrew how the government's tourism push has helped.&nbsp;
Migrant arrivals for the year were up 5%, immigration expert Simon Laurent shares his thoughts.&nbsp;
Our debt situation might be catching up to us as the global bond markets start to get anxious, Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen explains.&nbsp;
Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on Pauline Hanson asked to apologise over nasty and divisive comments about First Nations Australians and the first confirmed case of bird flu, an endangered an Aussie sea lion.
Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Full Show Podcast: 15 September 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/78ace574-9620-4e77-8296-b4c5012ac629/transcript

Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on how an uncertain global bond market could impact New Zealand

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