The US Presidential Election is less than 100 days away.

Kamala Harris is expected to announce her pick for Vice President today ahead of their first public appearance together in Pennsylvania tomorrow.

Presidential Historian Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted almost every US Election since the 1980s through a process called ‘The 13 Keys to the White House’.

He told Ryan Bridge that while he hasn’t made a final prediction yet, a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose the election.

LISTEN ABOVE

The US Presidential Election is less than 100 days away. 
Kamala Harris is expected to announce her pick for Vice President today ahead of their first public appearance together in Pennsylvania tomorrow. 
Presidential Historian Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted almost every US Election since the 1980s through a process called ‘The 13 Keys to the White House’. 
He told Ryan Bridge that while he hasn’t made a final prediction yet, a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose the election. 
LISTEN ABOVE

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

A fresh and intelligent start to your day - catch the very latest international and domestic news developments, sport, entertainment and business on Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, on Newstalk ZB.

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Allan Lichtman: Presidential Historian on the US Election ahead of the announcement of Kamala Harris' running mate

A lift in the terror threat level in Australia is in response to an increase in extremism, fuelled by conspiracy theories and anti-authority ideologies. 

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed the level is lifting from ‘possible’ to ‘probable’ - meaning there's now a greater than 50% chance of an onshore attack in the next twelve months.

Australian correspondent Donna Demaio told Ryan Bridge the Prime Minister is adamant there's no intelligence of an imminent attack, but there is a need for a higher level of preparedness and alertness for agencies and the public. 

The Security Intelligence Service says New Zealand's threat level is low.

LISTEN ABOVE

A lift in the terror threat level in Australia is in response to an increase in extremism, fuelled by conspiracy theories and anti-authority ideologies.  
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed the level is lifting from ‘possible’ to ‘probable’ - meaning there's now a greater than 50% chance of an onshore attack in the next twelve months. 
Australian correspondent Donna Demaio told Ryan Bridge the Prime Minister is adamant there's no intelligence of an imminent attack, but there is a need for a higher level of preparedness and alertness for agencies and the public.  
The Security Intelligence Service says New Zealand's threat level is low. 
LISTEN ABOVE

Donna Demaio: Australian Correspondent on the country's terror threat level increasing

U.S. stock markets had a bit of a panic attack overnight, I think that's the best way to describe it.

Investors have been selling off, especially in tech stocks.

The U.S. job data that came out on Friday seems to have freaked the horses. Losses are being clawed back slightly this morning, but everyone is on edge.

Why? Well, it's the largest economy in the world. It affects us all, and it feels like we're all sort of teetering on the edge of an economic cliff at the moment. We're all at the mercy of our central banks and their rate cut decisions.

Will they cut? Won't they cut?

In this case you've got no cut last week from the Federal Reserve in the U.S. and you've got some bad data and oh, America's going to recession.

If our Reserve Bank doesn't cut soon, then we'll probably have the same issues here.

Bank of England, the European Central Bank, they have cut.

Here's the thing I was thinking about this morning: we've got a mortgage at my house. We're going to refix, so, when the cuts happen I'm not going to be running out and splurging on the credit card. There'll be no new TV or couch at my house, there'll be no new car in the driveway, and I won't be going to fancy restaurants all the time. 

I won't be going to the clubs and making it rain cash, just because the rates have cut.

This cost of living crisis, coupled with the technical recession that we went through, it's got me feeling a little sensible. I'm thinking more about saving, I'm thinking more about strategic investing.

You never know when the next Government or Reserve Bank splurge might fuel the next big thing. You know, the lockdowns, then the loose purse strings, the prolonged high interest rates.

So you got to be prepared for stuff.

What does that mean for retailers who are falling over to their knees all around us?

I think, sadly, things won't suddenly bounce back once Adrian Orr blows his whistle, it'll be a long hard slog yet.

U.S. stock markets had a bit of a panic attack overnight, I think that's the best way to describe it. 
Investors have been selling off, especially in tech stocks. 
The U.S. job data that came out on Friday seems to have freaked the horses. Losses are being clawed back slightly this morning, but everyone is on edge. 
Why? Well, it's the largest economy in the world. It affects us all, and it feels like we're all sort of teetering on the edge of an economic cliff at the moment. We're all at the mercy of our central banks and their rate cut decisions. 
Will they cut? Won't they cut? 
In this case you've got no cut last week from the Federal Reserve in the U.S. and you've got some bad data and oh, America's going to recession. 
If our Reserve Bank doesn't cut soon, then we'll probably have the same issues here. 
Bank of England, the European Central Bank, they have cut. 
Here's the thing I was thinking about this morning: we've got a mortgage at my house. We're going to refix, so, when the cuts happen I'm not going to be running out and splurging on the credit card. There'll be no new TV or couch at my house, there'll be no new car in the driveway, and I won't be going to fancy restaurants all the time.  
I won't be going to the clubs and making it rain cash, just because the rates have cut. 
This cost of living crisis, coupled with the technical recession that we went through, it's got me feeling a little sensible. I'm thinking more about saving, I'm thinking more about strategic investing. 
You never know when the next Government or Reserve Bank splurge might fuel the next big thing. You know, the lockdowns, then the loose purse strings, the prolonged high interest rates. 
So you got to be prepared for stuff. 
What does that mean for retailers who are falling over to their knees all around us? 
I think, sadly, things won't suddenly bounce back once Adrian Orr blows his whistle, it'll be a long hard slog yet.

Ryan Bridge: We're teetering on the edge of an economic cliff

An education expert says we should be worried about low maths results.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon revealed data which he says shows that four out of five Year 8 students aren't at the expected level. 

He's bringing forward a new math curriculum to Term 1 next year, assessing twice yearly, and a $20 million boost for teachers' professional development. 

New Zealand Initiative researcher Michael Johnston told Ryan Bridge it's likely things have been like this for some time.

He says the Government's action is necessary, but time will tell whether it's enough.

LISTEN ABOVE

An education expert says we should be worried about low maths results. 
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon revealed data which he says shows that four out of five Year 8 students aren't at the expected level.  
He's bringing forward a new math curriculum to Term 1 next year, assessing twice yearly, and a $20 million boost for teachers' professional development.  
New Zealand Initiative researcher Michael Johnston told Ryan Bridge it's likely things have been like this for some time. 
He says the Government's action is necessary, but time will tell whether it's enough. 
 LISTEN ABOVE

Allan Lichtman: Presidential Historian on the US Election ahead of the announcement of Kamala Harris' running mate

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