It's the Democracy, Stupid with Edwin Eisendrath (formerly The Big Picture)Edwin Eisendrath is joined by G. Elliott Morris, data-driven journalist, pollster, author of the Substack newsletter “Strength In Numbers” and the book “Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them.”
In the interview polling and election forecasts were discussed as useful but inherently uncertain measures of public opinion and electoral outcomes. Here are a few highlights from the conversation:
- Morris emphasized that polls help explain public attitudes beyond the horse race, while typical election polling error remains about three percentage points.
- Aggregating polls reduces individual-poll error, but shared nonresponse bias can affect the average; the direction of polling error cannot be reliably predicted.
- Morris described a broad anti-incumbent mood, tied to economic concerns and dissatisfaction with government priorities and policies.
- The U.S. House is forecast strongly toward Democratic control; the Senate is more competitive, with polling error potentially changing the outcome.
- Morris and Eisendrath also discussed growing public dissatisfaction with the Supreme Court and skepticism that the forces behind the current Republican Party will disappear when Donald Trump leaves office.
Catch “It’s the Democracy, Stupid” Saturdays from 1:00 to 4:00 p.m. Central on WCPT (heartlandsignal.com/programs/edwin).
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