normally at 8 15 central time on monday mornings Jim Wiesemeyer, pro farmer policy analyst. And I sit down for a conversation that we call signal to noise. But

normally at 8 15 central time on monday mornings Jim Wiesemeyer, pro farmer policy analyst. And I sit down for a conversation that we call signal to noise. But

when the federal government is closed on Mondays we move it

when the federal government is closed on Mondays we move it

two right now. 10 30 Central

two right now. 10 30 Central

here on a great talk. We are going to have kind of

here on a great talk. We are going to have kind of

and abbreviated I guess I would call it D. C. Signal to noise. Jim waste Meyer. Welcome back. How are you?

and abbreviated I guess I would call it D. C. Signal to noise. Jim waste Meyer. Welcome back. How are you?

I'm here without a face.

I'm here without a face.

Without a face. That's right, that's right. And you know, some people would appreciate that I'm talking about for me. Of course, yeah.

Without a face. That's right, that's right. And you know, some people would appreciate that I'm talking about for me. Of course, yeah.

You know, dude, so over the weekend, over the weekend when the when the braves and the cubs started their series,

You know, dude, so over the weekend, over the weekend when the when the braves and the cubs started their series,

The braves were on a 14 game winning streak.

The braves were on a 14 game winning streak.

The cubs,

The cubs,

We're on a 10 game losing streak

We're on a 10 game losing streak

and the cubs won a one to nothing pitching duel and it was an awesome small ball kind of game and I loved it. And I thought boy, here we go. Well not so much.

and the cubs won a one to nothing pitching duel and it was an awesome small ball kind of game and I loved it. And I thought boy, here we go. Well not so much.

How's your nat's doing?

How's your nat's doing?

Uh We've we've won one less game than the cubs. So you know, we just lose three or four in a row and then win one. That's been their cycle.

Uh We've we've won one less game than the cubs. So you know, we just lose three or four in a row and then win one. That's been their cycle.

Uh it's tough to watch, tough to watch. It's so hard to watch. I'm watching the Stanley cup finals.

Uh it's tough to watch, tough to watch. It's so hard to watch. I'm watching the Stanley cup finals.

Ha

Ha

ha ha

ha ha

I've just been working in the garden. I do want to say yesterday I did work Jeff, I went down to D. C. And the north America renderers association had the beginning of their three day trip into D. C. To visit with lawmakers and things like that. I want to take a quick, you know, quick mention here chip because they asked me they're going to be seeing staff and lawmakers and they asked me what what should we usually focus on? And I said that's a good question. Keep your topics brief one or two and also asked the senator or representative what are the biggest issues he's hearing from his state of his or her state or district?

I've just been working in the garden. I do want to say yesterday I did work Jeff, I went down to D. C. And the north America renderers association had the beginning of their three day trip into D. C. To visit with lawmakers and things like that. I want to take a quick, you know, quick mention here chip because they asked me they're going to be seeing staff and lawmakers and they asked me what what should we usually focus on? And I said that's a good question. Keep your topics brief one or two and also asked the senator or representative what are the biggest issues he's hearing from his state of his or her state or district?

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Uh That's that's really good advice. That's one thing that I try to do with every

Uh That's that's really good advice. That's one thing that I try to do with every

every time I have a senator or a representative on Agritalk

every time I have a senator or a representative on Agritalk

in in communications leading up to the interview I say, hey what's on your priority list? I'm I and we, as listeners of the conversation are curious what what is at the top of the priority list across the country And and that leads to some really good conversations. Jim No

in in communications leading up to the interview I say, hey what's on your priority list? I'm I and we, as listeners of the conversation are curious what what is at the top of the priority list across the country And and that leads to some really good conversations. Jim No

question.

question.

Okay.

Okay.

Um so we've got a holiday shortened week

Um so we've got a holiday shortened week

but boy, they've got an aggressive schedule.

but boy, they've got an aggressive schedule.

I'm gonna look at the Senate ag panel here first because there is going to be a vote on

I'm gonna look at the Senate ag panel here first because there is going to be a vote on

two cattle related measures. Jim tell us about it.

two cattle related measures. Jim tell us about it.

Yeah, absolutely. The well that's the meat uh

Yeah, absolutely. The well that's the meat uh

uh pricing act. Yeah pricing act. And then the other one is the meat and poultry special investigator act, which the opponents say, you know they already have the authority to do everything. You know, packers and stockyards, that's that's in the language of this bill. But I still think both the cattle price discovery and transparency act and the meat and poultry special investigator act, you know, Chip will pass the Senate ag committee. I think it's on for Wednesday but uh I still think it might be tied to get them through on a Senate on the Senate floor vote, it's gonna be close.

uh pricing act. Yeah pricing act. And then the other one is the meat and poultry special investigator act, which the opponents say, you know they already have the authority to do everything. You know, packers and stockyards, that's that's in the language of this bill. But I still think both the cattle price discovery and transparency act and the meat and poultry special investigator act, you know, Chip will pass the Senate ag committee. I think it's on for Wednesday but uh I still think it might be tied to get them through on a Senate on the Senate floor vote, it's gonna be close.

Okay. So last week we had Tanner Bemer on on the show,

Okay. So last week we had Tanner Bemer on on the show,

Senior VP there at the National Cattlemen's beef Association

Senior VP there at the National Cattlemen's beef Association

talking about why N. C. B. A. Was against the lower food and fuel cost act.

talking about why N. C. B. A. Was against the lower food and fuel cost act.

Um that, well, it was spearheaded I guess I would say by Representative Abigail spanberger out of Virginia who is going to be on the show to talk about

Um that, well, it was spearheaded I guess I would say by Representative Abigail spanberger out of Virginia who is going to be on the show to talk about

the legislation tomorrow morning,

the legislation tomorrow morning,

but

but

N. C. B. A. Was against it because of the duplicity

N. C. B. A. Was against it because of the duplicity

of this special investigator.

of this special investigator.

They weren't necessarily against the other issues in the

They weren't necessarily against the other issues in the

in the bill. And there's certainly for the butcher block and the expansion of of capacity and and the support of that.

in the bill. And there's certainly for the butcher block and the expansion of of capacity and and the support of that.

But this

But this

this special investigator thing jim has really created

this special investigator thing jim has really created

uh it it it has created a lot of conflict on both sides of that issue

uh it it it has created a lot of conflict on both sides of that issue

and I and I don't blame the opponents on this one I've seen. We've already seen too many finger pointers out out, you know, lately Chip, but that a whole host of industries Refiners, meatpackers seek companies, you name it.

and I and I don't blame the opponents on this one I've seen. We've already seen too many finger pointers out out, you know, lately Chip, but that a whole host of industries Refiners, meatpackers seek companies, you name it.

And again bozeman on the Senate ag committee has said they already have the authority just use it if if there's problems use it.

And again bozeman on the Senate ag committee has said they already have the authority just use it if if there's problems use it.

Yeah, I I hear that, I agree with that. But there are a lot of

Yeah, I I hear that, I agree with that. But there are a lot of

cattlemen out there

cattlemen out there

that want an official whistleblower.

that want an official whistleblower.

See it, say it, scream about it and point it out to everybody

See it, say it, scream about it and point it out to everybody

that bad stuff is happening

that bad stuff is happening

again. I say that's the role of the P. And S. A. But we'll we'll see I will say that abigail from Virginia is spot on in what she's hearing from Virginia from Virginia cattle producers because when I spoke to them they really are interested in increased transparency and more processing chips. So she's echoing

again. I say that's the role of the P. And S. A. But we'll we'll see I will say that abigail from Virginia is spot on in what she's hearing from Virginia from Virginia cattle producers because when I spoke to them they really are interested in increased transparency and more processing chips. So she's echoing

I think what his constituents are telling her.

I think what his constituents are telling her.

So Senator Grassley is going to help push this through the Senate AG Committee. I would imagine. What are the odds that he can round up enough votes in the full Senate to get 60 votes for this?

So Senator Grassley is going to help push this through the Senate AG Committee. I would imagine. What are the odds that he can round up enough votes in the full Senate to get 60 votes for this?

It could be very close. But you know, you're gonna have some uh you know the southerners Oklahoma and texas from both parties. Chip

It could be very close. But you know, you're gonna have some uh you know the southerners Oklahoma and texas from both parties. Chip

are just gonna look towards this because how many studies have we seen that while it does not affect the upper midwest Nebraska and Iowa to be exact it does have a significant negative impacts for the key cattle states of Oklahoma and texas chips so I got it down to one or two Maybe they can if if if if they don't get right at 60 they could be shy of 1 to 2 because it's gonna take

are just gonna look towards this because how many studies have we seen that while it does not affect the upper midwest Nebraska and Iowa to be exact it does have a significant negative impacts for the key cattle states of Oklahoma and texas chips so I got it down to one or two Maybe they can if if if if they don't get right at 60 they could be shy of 1 to 2 because it's gonna take

That 60 vote threshold to to stop debate on the filibuster.

That 60 vote threshold to to stop debate on the filibuster.

All right, very good.

All right, very good.

Um so we've got

Um so we've got

I

I

I am hearing more and more from the biden administration

I am hearing more and more from the biden administration

talk and issues that

talk and issues that

I thought

I thought

six weeks ago had had gone away, but

six weeks ago had had gone away, but

we're talking about new reconciliation measures

we're talking about new reconciliation measures

to rein in the deficit, revive parts of the build back better plan that were out there. Jim is that happening?

to rein in the deficit, revive parts of the build back better plan that were out there. Jim is that happening?

We've been on this one chip and there is a full court effort now talks are continuing with Mansion, the centrist senator

We've been on this one chip and there is a full court effort now talks are continuing with Mansion, the centrist senator

from west Virginia, you know, democrat and uh they're gonna load in. I think the secret of this reconciliation and it will be only democrat only uh is including language on some expiring Obamacare programs that expire this fall chip

from west Virginia, you know, democrat and uh they're gonna load in. I think the secret of this reconciliation and it will be only democrat only uh is including language on some expiring Obamacare programs that expire this fall chip

early winter and then early next year. And that will bring in

early winter and then early next year. And that will bring in

perhaps a number of house democrats now, why are I I switched from the Senate to the house because the the very liberal House members aoc etcetera.

perhaps a number of house democrats now, why are I I switched from the Senate to the house because the the very liberal House members aoc etcetera.

Uh they might not vote for this reconciliation bill because they want a lot more in it. But this Obamacare provision, it would be awfully hard for any democrat to vote against that jet.

Uh they might not vote for this reconciliation bill because they want a lot more in it. But this Obamacare provision, it would be awfully hard for any democrat to vote against that jet.

Okay,

Okay,

um

um

let's let's talk about

let's let's talk about

the state of the economy

the state of the economy

because there are more and more Elon musk being one of the latest

because there are more and more Elon musk being one of the latest

to put out a warning about recession. It's just such a strange event. Jim. We've got this weak economy with inflation and tightening monetary policy. It it's got us looking at old

to put out a warning about recession. It's just such a strange event. Jim. We've got this weak economy with inflation and tightening monetary policy. It it's got us looking at old

different directions at the same time.

different directions at the same time.

Yeah. And here we go again. Uh, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the Sundays news program said, although, yes, americans are hurting a recession isn't inevitable. And uh, President biden said the same thing shortly after. Meanwhile, you have the Wall Street Journal survey of economists, which is very,

Yeah. And here we go again. Uh, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the Sundays news program said, although, yes, americans are hurting a recession isn't inevitable. And uh, President biden said the same thing shortly after. Meanwhile, you have the Wall Street Journal survey of economists, which is very,

A very good survey that a lot of traders and analysts look at and in June they found a 44% expect a recession in the next year. Now that's a big increase. Chip from the 28

A very good survey that a lot of traders and analysts look at and in June they found a 44% expect a recession in the next year. Now that's a big increase. Chip from the 28

Who forecast a recession in their April survey and 18 in January, the trend is up.

Who forecast a recession in their April survey and 18 in January, the trend is up.

Okay,

Okay,

so the trend is moving in that direction. I feel that if the administration could somehow some way

so the trend is moving in that direction. I feel that if the administration could somehow some way

get fuel prices

get fuel prices

under control that a recession

under control that a recession

could still be a very, I'm, I think we're in one.

could still be a very, I'm, I think we're in one.

Um, but it can be a minor recession if we can get these fuel

Um, but it can be a minor recession if we can get these fuel

prices under control.

prices under control.

Is there any change on the administration policy toward fossil fuels?

Is there any change on the administration policy toward fossil fuels?

Uh,

Uh,

well, they're constantly changing. But uh, President biden said by the end of this week. He should decide on whether or not that he's going to push a federal, you know, suspending. I should say the federal gas tax, that's that 18.3 cent per gallon federal tax, but that's gonna require Congress to act. So here we go again.

well, they're constantly changing. But uh, President biden said by the end of this week. He should decide on whether or not that he's going to push a federal, you know, suspending. I should say the federal gas tax, that's that 18.3 cent per gallon federal tax, but that's gonna require Congress to act. So here we go again.

And a number of states have already done it chip at the state level. But my now home state of Virginia,

And a number of states have already done it chip at the state level. But my now home state of Virginia,

the governor Duncan wanted it, but his his his Congress would not allow it. So, but other, some other states have done it. But that's a short term because as a former Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers said over the weekend, eventually they're going to have to go back on

the governor Duncan wanted it, but his his his Congress would not allow it. So, but other, some other states have done it. But that's a short term because as a former Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers said over the weekend, eventually they're going to have to go back on

and you know, that helps fund the

and you know, that helps fund the

highway system. So I I just think it's very short sided Jeff.

highway system. So I I just think it's very short sided Jeff.

Oh, it

Oh, it

it certainly is. And you know, on one hand, we've got all these E. S. G. The environmental, social governance considerations out there that are limiting investment in

it certainly is. And you know, on one hand, we've got all these E. S. G. The environmental, social governance considerations out there that are limiting investment in

the energy production. And I'm talking about fossil fuel, energy production,

the energy production. And I'm talking about fossil fuel, energy production,

Um, that that we're fighting and 18 a gas tax holiday seems like so insignificant I guess when we're up against other issues. All right, Jim. We were talking about energies there at the end of the last segment

Um, that that we're fighting and 18 a gas tax holiday seems like so insignificant I guess when we're up against other issues. All right, Jim. We were talking about energies there at the end of the last segment

and there's been a deal struck between a U. S. Natural gas exporter

and there's been a deal struck between a U. S. Natural gas exporter

to supply Germany with Nazi gas

to supply Germany with Nazi gas

isn't this only going to amplify talk

isn't this only going to amplify talk

of some kind of export restrictions.

of some kind of export restrictions.

It'll put the pressure on for sure. Chip. And even though over the weekend from friday on, we had a down tech uh in, in energy prices there, it's, it's not gonna last long probably, but here's something to watch out for

It'll put the pressure on for sure. Chip. And even though over the weekend from friday on, we had a down tech uh in, in energy prices there, it's, it's not gonna last long probably, but here's something to watch out for

two Americans and three Iranian naval vessels at a recent confrontation

two Americans and three Iranian naval vessels at a recent confrontation

in the strait of Hormuz. And that's that checkpoint checkpoint for global oil shipping. If something were to occur there, chip, all all bets are off on whether or not they'll do or not do any, any halter suspensions of gas exports, uh, natty gas out of here, something to watch, Jeff.

in the strait of Hormuz. And that's that checkpoint checkpoint for global oil shipping. If something were to occur there, chip, all all bets are off on whether or not they'll do or not do any, any halter suspensions of gas exports, uh, natty gas out of here, something to watch, Jeff.

And meanwhile, Grand Home, our Energy secretary is meeting with Refiners this week to find out why aren't they refining more? Well, they're gonna hear what they've been saying for weeks. They're already at near capacity and primarily because of the increased regulations. I did a check

And meanwhile, Grand Home, our Energy secretary is meeting with Refiners this week to find out why aren't they refining more? Well, they're gonna hear what they've been saying for weeks. They're already at near capacity and primarily because of the increased regulations. I did a check

and the first year and a half of the biden administration versus the Obama administration, because democrats, it's just the fact that usually increased regulations, biden is 2 to 2.5 times, uh, increased regulations versus Obama. That says it all

and the first year and a half of the biden administration versus the Obama administration, because democrats, it's just the fact that usually increased regulations, biden is 2 to 2.5 times, uh, increased regulations versus Obama. That says it all

Well,

Well,

you know, it, it does say a lot, but here we are with, with refining capacity, as you said,

you know, it, it does say a lot, but here we are with, with refining capacity, as you said,

the Refiners say that we are basically at capacity, correct?

the Refiners say that we are basically at capacity, correct?

Very close to Yes.

Very close to Yes.

So even if we increased oil production,

So even if we increased oil production,

how does that bring down gas prices?

how does that bring down gas prices?

That's called a dilemma.

That's called a dilemma.

Okay.

Okay.

Um, so don't we need to encourage investment

Um, so don't we need to encourage investment

and

and

in adding refining capacity, which is going to take a loosening up of rules and regulations to cut some red tape to get it done in any kind of

in adding refining capacity, which is going to take a loosening up of rules and regulations to cut some red tape to get it done in any kind of

timely matter.

timely matter.

And and it just goes against everything that the biden administration has talked about even back into the campaign days when they said that they were going to end fossil fuels.

And and it just goes against everything that the biden administration has talked about even back into the campaign days when they said that they were going to end fossil fuels.

Yes. And it's some of the language. Once we get the final of this, let's connect dots here of the reconciliation bill. Senator Mansion is insisting on some, some language regarding crude oil. So it, that's going to be very interesting to see if they open up that industry,

Yes. And it's some of the language. Once we get the final of this, let's connect dots here of the reconciliation bill. Senator Mansion is insisting on some, some language regarding crude oil. So it, that's going to be very interesting to see if they open up that industry,

even though, as you said, it goes against everything President biden and specifically others in the administration john Kerry to be exact. But something's gonna have to give. That's why I'm saying we're gonna have higher gasoline prices longer than people think.

even though, as you said, it goes against everything President biden and specifically others in the administration john Kerry to be exact. But something's gonna have to give. That's why I'm saying we're gonna have higher gasoline prices longer than people think.

Yeah. If we can increase oil production though and start adding to surplus and adding to inventory, it does bring that, it does bring crude oil prices down and it's cheaper to make gasoline from, from $50 crude than it is from 100 and $10 crude, which can bring gasoline prices down. So

Yeah. If we can increase oil production though and start adding to surplus and adding to inventory, it does bring that, it does bring crude oil prices down and it's cheaper to make gasoline from, from $50 crude than it is from 100 and $10 crude, which can bring gasoline prices down. So

let's pump baby pump.

let's pump baby pump.

That is true. And I did notice the a wire service story, I don't know whether it was Reuters or Bloomberg, that's saying we're building up finally some inventory of fertilizer. I don't know whether you saw that, that's a good thing. That's a

That is true. And I did notice the a wire service story, I don't know whether it was Reuters or Bloomberg, that's saying we're building up finally some inventory of fertilizer. I don't know whether you saw that, that's a good thing. That's a

good thing. We've got

good thing. We've got

Some dates set now for Supreme Court to hear two very important

Some dates set now for Supreme Court to hear two very important

issues for agriculture. Give us the update.

issues for agriculture. Give us the update.

Well on proposition 12 that's the biggie in the uh in the pork industry where the news of friday or over the weekend the U. S. Government announced that it backs the national pork producers council and the farm bureau in their proposition 12 Supreme Court case

Well on proposition 12 that's the biggie in the uh in the pork industry where the news of friday or over the weekend the U. S. Government announced that it backs the national pork producers council and the farm bureau in their proposition 12 Supreme Court case

Now. And the Supreme Court's Gonna Hear that begin hearing the case I should say October the 11th.

Now. And the Supreme Court's Gonna Hear that begin hearing the case I should say October the 11th.

Now to recall that this thing is a heated argument at many levels. The Senate ag chairwoman Debbie stabenow urged USDA Secretary of Vilsack to support proposition 12. So there's your your your your differences within uh

Now to recall that this thing is a heated argument at many levels. The Senate ag chairwoman Debbie stabenow urged USDA Secretary of Vilsack to support proposition 12. So there's your your your your differences within uh

among the democrats.

among the democrats.

Then on October three chip, the Supreme Court's Gonna Hear the Wetlands Case.

Then on October three chip, the Supreme Court's Gonna Hear the Wetlands Case.

Uh So we're gonna get some key issues for the business of agriculture in october from the Supreme Court.

Uh So we're gonna get some key issues for the business of agriculture in october from the Supreme Court.

Okay, that's october 3rd on the case. Now, what are the odds that E. P. A. Is gonna try to put a final rule out on the waters of the U. S. Before that october 3rd decision or he

Okay, that's october 3rd on the case. Now, what are the odds that E. P. A. Is gonna try to put a final rule out on the waters of the U. S. Before that october 3rd decision or he

could. Well

could. Well

it could well be.

it could well be.

But remember these are hearings and they still have to rule at the Supreme Court Now I think we and others have asked Reagan about that E. P. A Administrator Michael Regan and he says they will be complimentary other people are not so sure. But that's how Regan answers that question that they don't want to get too far behind

But remember these are hearings and they still have to rule at the Supreme Court Now I think we and others have asked Reagan about that E. P. A Administrator Michael Regan and he says they will be complimentary other people are not so sure. But that's how Regan answers that question that they don't want to get too far behind

in. Promulgating the new rule by just waiting for the Supreme Court. So there's your argument.

in. Promulgating the new rule by just waiting for the Supreme Court. So there's your argument.

Well then they then they lose. If they don't have a final rule out before that Supreme Court decision, then they don't have uh any ground to stand on

Well then they then they lose. If they don't have a final rule out before that Supreme Court decision, then they don't have uh any ground to stand on

or

or

you know? Well, they'll have to they'll have to modify. Don't ever bet on E. P. A. To come out with the final rule in october. It's just not gonna happen. I think it'll be near the end of the end of the year. Chip.

you know? Well, they'll have to they'll have to modify. Don't ever bet on E. P. A. To come out with the final rule in october. It's just not gonna happen. I think it'll be near the end of the end of the year. Chip.

Okay. All right. Very good.

Okay. All right. Very good.

Anything else? You got 20 seconds? What else are you watching?

Anything else? You got 20 seconds? What else are you watching?

The renderers told me that in a number of cases they have had to shut down some exports of their products because I didn't have enough inspectors to certify their plants.

The renderers told me that in a number of cases they have had to shut down some exports of their products because I didn't have enough inspectors to certify their plants.

That's not good. We have to ask Vilsack about that the next time.

That's not good. We have to ask Vilsack about that the next time.

Labor issues all over the place. Airlines

Labor issues all over the place. Airlines

USDA inspectors. Me. It's it's all over the place. Good stuff. Jim. Thanks buddy. We'll talk to you again later. That's Jim Wiesemeyer. Pro farmer policy analyst.

USDA inspectors. Me. It's it's all over the place. Good stuff. Jim. Thanks buddy. We'll talk to you again later. That's Jim Wiesemeyer. Pro farmer policy analyst.