It is Monday, June 5th and this is markets and news signal to noise. Good afternoon. I'm Chip Florey

It is Monday, June 5th and this is markets and news signal to noise. Good afternoon. I'm Chip Florey

and pro Farmer Policy analyst, Jim Mier. Good afternoon, Jim.

and pro Farmer Policy analyst, Jim Mier. Good afternoon, Jim.

Good afternoon, Chip.

Good afternoon, Chip.

All right. Here's the deal. Yesterday afternoon, Sunday afternoon.

All right. Here's the deal. Yesterday afternoon, Sunday afternoon.

I know that you were working away on your weekend updates. I had a few things to do. I had to get out and, and even though it's drier than heck up here in northeast Iowa right now I did have to mow the lawn but I got it. I got back in the house in time

I know that you were working away on your weekend updates. I had a few things to do. I had to get out and, and even though it's drier than heck up here in northeast Iowa right now I did have to mow the lawn but I got it. I got back in the house in time

to watch the Cubs win a baseball game.

to watch the Cubs win a baseball game.

How do you think? How do you like that?

How do you think? How do you like that?

I didn't watch any baseball on the weekend, so I don't know what happened. I know we, the nationals keep losing again. Every time they get close to 5, 500 they just lose about 3 to 4 in a

I didn't watch any baseball on the weekend, so I don't know what happened. I know we, the nationals keep losing again. Every time they get close to 5, 500 they just lose about 3 to 4 in a

row. Yeah, I think the Cubs are still like six games under 505 at least five games. It's just, uh,

row. Yeah, I think the Cubs are still like six games under 505 at least five games. It's just, uh,

oh boy,

oh boy,

it's, you know, they show, they show me signs of life and then it's just a set up for a beatdown. Later.

it's, you know, they show, they show me signs of life and then it's just a set up for a beatdown. Later.

So here we are, it's June now is when you can start losing the pennant. So we'll, we'll see what happens. Ok. Um Jim, I, I feel like we got to go back to last week's

So here we are, it's June now is when you can start losing the pennant. So we'll, we'll see what happens. Ok. Um Jim, I, I feel like we got to go back to last week's

headline story and that is the debt ceiling and the president signed it over the, over the weekend. Uh, the debt ceiling. What else, what else have you learned about the deal since we last talked on Friday?

headline story and that is the debt ceiling and the president signed it over the, over the weekend. Uh, the debt ceiling. What else, what else have you learned about the deal since we last talked on Friday?

Well, to, to put it in English rather than legislative lingo chip. Uh the debt limit is suspended. They didn't put a specific dollar amount. And so, and uh uh that gives the administration and basically Congress to flexibility, it's not like an open ended spending spree, but it doesn't lock them in. So we will be at a, at a crunch time in uh

Well, to, to put it in English rather than legislative lingo chip. Uh the debt limit is suspended. They didn't put a specific dollar amount. And so, and uh uh that gives the administration and basically Congress to flexibility, it's not like an open ended spending spree, but it doesn't lock them in. So we will be at a, at a crunch time in uh

2025. I think it'll be mid 2025 before that debt limit is, is reached again, that's 12 is with all the uh recession of funds, the clawback of around 27 billion in unspent COVID aid, uh uh 1.4 billion in uh previously uh you know, money previously provided to the I R F

2025. I think it'll be mid 2025 before that debt limit is, is reached again, that's 12 is with all the uh recession of funds, the clawback of around 27 billion in unspent COVID aid, uh uh 1.4 billion in uh previously uh you know, money previously provided to the I R F

and then 10 billion each year over two years in prior IRS funding for nondefense spending. Now that's gonna offset some of the spending cuts in a number of programs. So uh uh uh that's a chunk of change there. That, that's another area and we're gonna have to see where that money goes. You know, whether it's for agriculture or not.

and then 10 billion each year over two years in prior IRS funding for nondefense spending. Now that's gonna offset some of the spending cuts in a number of programs. So uh uh uh that's a chunk of change there. That, that's another area and we're gonna have to see where that money goes. You know, whether it's for agriculture or not.

And then the food stamp changes with the expanded work requirements. But yet the White House, uh, got their exemptions to homeless individuals, veterans and foster care. And that's actually going to, uh, lead to more enrollments, uh, than, than, than we have now. Chip. So I think that's why House Speaker, uh, Kevin mccarthy, a Republican from California signaled on Friday

And then the food stamp changes with the expanded work requirements. But yet the White House, uh, got their exemptions to homeless individuals, veterans and foster care. And that's actually going to, uh, lead to more enrollments, uh, than, than, than we have now. Chip. So I think that's why House Speaker, uh, Kevin mccarthy, a Republican from California signaled on Friday

that during the farm bill debate, uh the Republicans in the House could go for further changes in the food stamp program. Well, if that's the case, then I'm not as upbeat on uh on the impact of the debt limit bill. Uh that I was initially before I heard,

that during the farm bill debate, uh the Republicans in the House could go for further changes in the food stamp program. Well, if that's the case, then I'm not as upbeat on uh on the impact of the debt limit bill. Uh that I was initially before I heard,

you know, uh before I uh I heard mccarthy because they're already uh late in the timelines to uh to get a draft bill done in, in the farm bill. Uh The, the whispers in town is that we could get a draft farm bill in a before the August recess or no later than September when they come,

you know, uh before I uh I heard mccarthy because they're already uh late in the timelines to uh to get a draft bill done in, in the farm bill. Uh The, the whispers in town is that we could get a draft farm bill in a before the August recess or no later than September when they come,

come back. But that means there, there's, there's a, a AAA tight time before when Congress is in town Chip to even do a farm bill. So those are your bottom lines and there were other things in there for agriculture. I think one of the more significant ones is that

come back. But that means there, there's, there's a, a AAA tight time before when Congress is in town Chip to even do a farm bill. So those are your bottom lines and there were other things in there for agriculture. I think one of the more significant ones is that

this uh uh this doesn't limit the ability of appropriators to do emergency funds for disaster aid that almost guarantees you a disaster aid program by the end of this calendar year. And, uh, so, you know, that's something, uh, else to watch.

this uh uh this doesn't limit the ability of appropriators to do emergency funds for disaster aid that almost guarantees you a disaster aid program by the end of this calendar year. And, uh, so, you know, that's something, uh, else to watch.

They, they've basically said, listen, uh, we, it, it's going to happen. So let's just plan for it right now. That's, uh, and the disaster aid is talking mostly about wheat producers. Right.

They, they've basically said, listen, uh, we, it, it's going to happen. So let's just plan for it right now. That's, uh, and the disaster aid is talking mostly about wheat producers. Right.

Wheat. Oh, there's always more, you've got some specialty crops. You've got the California lawmakers, uh, wanting some funding. You're, you're gonna have more than a few groups and states come, come in by the time the year is over and we're not through the gut slot of, uh, crop development,

Wheat. Oh, there's always more, you've got some specialty crops. You've got the California lawmakers, uh, wanting some funding. You're, you're gonna have more than a few groups and states come, come in by the time the year is over and we're not through the gut slot of, uh, crop development,

right? We don't know whether you're gonna have another Debre in what in Iowa or things like that. That's why they like to do, uh, a disaster bill near the end of a Congress. And the other thing that's in this bill that I really applauded is it's, it's, it was a provision that basically told appropriators get your work done.

right? We don't know whether you're gonna have another Debre in what in Iowa or things like that. That's why they like to do, uh, a disaster bill near the end of a Congress. And the other thing that's in this bill that I really applauded is it's, it's, it was a provision that basically told appropriators get your work done.

Uh, if a continuing resolution is in effect, which they usually have done the last few years on or after January 1 2024 then the discretionary spending limits for the next fiscal year 2024 that begins October one

Uh, if a continuing resolution is in effect, which they usually have done the last few years on or after January 1 2024 then the discretionary spending limits for the next fiscal year 2024 that begins October one

that would be reduced to 1% less than fiscal 2023 base funding amounts. Well, lawmakers won't want that and that includes defense spending. So this could be the year chip we have all 12 appropriation bills done even though in a tight fit because as I said before, there's not many days Congress will be in town between now and the end of the year. But hopefully appropriators will finally do their job

that would be reduced to 1% less than fiscal 2023 base funding amounts. Well, lawmakers won't want that and that includes defense spending. So this could be the year chip we have all 12 appropriation bills done even though in a tight fit because as I said before, there's not many days Congress will be in town between now and the end of the year. But hopefully appropriators will finally do their job

finally. Yes. Yes. Ok.

finally. Yes. Yes. Ok.

You said something in where some of the clawbacks are in this debt ceiling 27 billion in unspent COVID aid.

You said something in where some of the clawbacks are in this debt ceiling 27 billion in unspent COVID aid.

Does that mean that there was more money set aside and allocated for COVID aid than what the economy could absorb

Does that mean that there was more money set aside and allocated for COVID aid than what the economy could absorb

are or what they could get out in time. Both chip man and, yeah, and they, they have an earmarked. Yeah, and they haven't earmarked those and that's what it was gonna be even a higher amount. But apparently the White House said, well, some of this other they wanted, I think around 50 billion. But uh some of that was already spoken for in a specific uh

are or what they could get out in time. Both chip man and, yeah, and they, they have an earmarked. Yeah, and they haven't earmarked those and that's what it was gonna be even a higher amount. But apparently the White House said, well, some of this other they wanted, I think around 50 billion. But uh some of that was already spoken for in a specific uh

request for individual states or whatever. But yeah, that tells you this was a, a pot of money and 27 billion even in Washington is a lot of money.

request for individual states or whatever. But yeah, that tells you this was a, a pot of money and 27 billion even in Washington is a lot of money.

Yeah. Yeah. Well, you know, I, I it's, I feel it's necessary to do this from time to time. Ok. From time to time it is to make everybody understand just how big a trillion is. So if I was going to start counting for every second I can get to one million

Yeah. Yeah. Well, you know, I, I it's, I feel it's necessary to do this from time to time. Ok. From time to time it is to make everybody understand just how big a trillion is. So if I was going to start counting for every second I can get to one million

in just under 12 days. One million. Yeah, I can get to one million in just under 12 days. Now

in just under 12 days. One million. Yeah, I can get to one million in just under 12 days. Now

to get to one billion. It takes 32 years to get to one billion seconds,

to get to one billion. It takes 32 years to get to one billion seconds,

32 years. That means that it takes 32,000 years to get to one trillion seconds.

32 years. That means that it takes 32,000 years to get to one trillion seconds.

32,000

32,000

Jim. These numbers

Jim. These numbers

are so far off the chart. I don't even know if they matter. I don't know how we're ever going to, uh, the debt ceiling. What did they put it at 42 trillion?

are so far off the chart. I don't even know if they matter. I don't know how we're ever going to, uh, the debt ceiling. What did they put it at 42 trillion?

Well, that's what they guessimate. There's no dollar amount on this. They can't, the Treasury department can't build up cash reserves. Uh But this is an open-ended chip basis. Uh Yeah, based on legislation between now and January 1 2025.

Well, that's what they guessimate. There's no dollar amount on this. They can't, the Treasury department can't build up cash reserves. Uh But this is an open-ended chip basis. Uh Yeah, based on legislation between now and January 1 2025.

That, that's about the only known thing in this. So we don't know what that level is and that's what got, got some people upset but what got

That, that's about the only known thing in this. So we don't know what that level is and that's what got, got some people upset but what got

uh some Democrats uh uh not as unhappy with this with some of that uh $10 billion for each, for two fiscal years. Uh out of the IRS funding that they could spend on other nondefense uh spending program. But now more than a few Republicans didn't like the defense spending, but they were appeased even though they still voted against it in, in, you know, many of them.

uh some Democrats uh uh not as unhappy with this with some of that uh $10 billion for each, for two fiscal years. Uh out of the IRS funding that they could spend on other nondefense uh spending program. But now more than a few Republicans didn't like the defense spending, but they were appeased even though they still voted against it in, in, you know, many of them.

When also they said uh this legislation will not impact the response to national security threats such as China. So that's how you got the votes the way they came uh uh about, it's not gonna save as much money as the, the Republicans first thought the office management and budget says 1.5, you know, billion dollars and it probably won't even be that. Uh But

When also they said uh this legislation will not impact the response to national security threats such as China. So that's how you got the votes the way they came uh uh about, it's not gonna save as much money as the, the Republicans first thought the office management and budget says 1.5, you know, billion dollars and it probably won't even be that. Uh But

it, it, it, it, there are some, some good, I think budget reform items that we've already talked about uh giving the signals to the appropriators. So, uh uh holding overall spending flat for fiscal year 2024 capping it at 1% increase in 2025 1st for this congress who likes to go on hyper drive for spending. That, that's big news in and of itself. So we got some budget reform in this.

it, it, it, it, there are some, some good, I think budget reform items that we've already talked about uh giving the signals to the appropriators. So, uh uh holding overall spending flat for fiscal year 2024 capping it at 1% increase in 2025 1st for this congress who likes to go on hyper drive for spending. That, that's big news in and of itself. So we got some budget reform in this.

So I feel,

So I feel,

ok, Jack Lavers out in California, a rancher out there. He's on the uh farmer forum on Agritalk from time to time. He picked that as his biggest take, takeaway

ok, Jack Lavers out in California, a rancher out there. He's on the uh farmer forum on Agritalk from time to time. He picked that as his biggest take, takeaway

from the debt ceiling process that we, that, that the G O P made progress in slowing down spending. Is, is that the right

from the debt ceiling process that we, that, that the G O P made progress in slowing down spending. Is, is that the right

take? I think that's a fair assessment first. You gotta slow it down because we're doing and because we're doing nothing about the debt, this was just the debt limit.

take? I think that's a fair assessment first. You gotta slow it down because we're doing and because we're doing nothing about the debt, this was just the debt limit.

Uh So this is why the upcoming elections in 2024 is crossroads. That's what my speech kind of theme is now. Uh not taking a political side, you're going to get a certain approach. If the Democrats uh uh uh control and you'll get a different approach if the Republicans control in not just uh the, the amount of spending but trade policy, uh tax policy, etcetera.

Uh So this is why the upcoming elections in 2024 is crossroads. That's what my speech kind of theme is now. Uh not taking a political side, you're going to get a certain approach. If the Democrats uh uh uh control and you'll get a different approach if the Republicans control in not just uh the, the amount of spending but trade policy, uh tax policy, etcetera.

Ok.

Ok.

Ok.

Ok.

Uh let's move on OPEC Plus. What was the decision? And what is going on with OPEC Plus?

Uh let's move on OPEC Plus. What was the decision? And what is going on with OPEC Plus?

Well, they actually announced no changes to their planned oil production cuts this year. But Saudi Arabia declared an additional voluntary uh one month, one month cut of one billion barrels per day starting in July. Now they can extend it. Ok. Now, the UAE was the only country who actually got a lower

Well, they actually announced no changes to their planned oil production cuts this year. But Saudi Arabia declared an additional voluntary uh one month, one month cut of one billion barrels per day starting in July. Now they can extend it. Ok. Now, the UAE was the only country who actually got a lower

uh a an increase in their production levels. Uh That's what I got out of it. And that's why you saw the market kind of uh initially volatile chip. At first, you had it going up like when this broke Sunday, you, you had futures up both Brent the international and, and the US. But then the more uh details came out and thought, well, this doesn't have staying power uh on it. So I don't think it's a fundamental change yet.

uh a an increase in their production levels. Uh That's what I got out of it. And that's why you saw the market kind of uh initially volatile chip. At first, you had it going up like when this broke Sunday, you, you had futures up both Brent the international and, and the US. But then the more uh details came out and thought, well, this doesn't have staying power uh on it. So I don't think it's a fundamental change yet.

Ok.

Ok.

Ok. Let's talk a little bit more about some trade deals because last week, uh the US and Taiwan inked a trade deal on the surface. I'm like, hey, a trade deal, that's all that, that is spectacular. And then over the weekend,

Ok. Let's talk a little bit more about some trade deals because last week, uh the US and Taiwan inked a trade deal on the surface. I'm like, hey, a trade deal, that's all that, that is spectacular. And then over the weekend,

us and China have a near miss in the straight in, in the Taiwanese strait. Uh This is not a comfortable situation for anybody

us and China have a near miss in the straight in, in the Taiwanese strait. Uh This is not a comfortable situation for anybody

no, the, the China Watchers that pro farmer uh deals with. They're, they're, all of them are telling us the Warhawks in China has Xi's ear and they're just almost brow beating the US

no, the, the China Watchers that pro farmer uh deals with. They're, they're, all of them are telling us the Warhawks in China has Xi's ear and they're just almost brow beating the US

that they really have to take the US out of that Asian sector to get where they want to be in the next few years, let's say 2027 that's their 100th year anniversary. Now, that's caused for a lot of concern. This is why some strategists are telling me

that they really have to take the US out of that Asian sector to get where they want to be in the next few years, let's say 2027 that's their 100th year anniversary. Now, that's caused for a lot of concern. This is why some strategists are telling me

uh why the Biden administration really pressed the Taiwan trade agreement when they did because they knew that would rankle uh Xi.

uh why the Biden administration really pressed the Taiwan trade agreement when they did because they knew that would rankle uh Xi.

And so that was a tit for tat chip as far as what I'm picking up for our China Watchers. But let's just bottom line that we do not have detente with China despite what Biden said the other day that he thought that it was the, we had turned the corner and there was going to be improved relations. No, that's not the case. As you said, some incidents over the weekend,

And so that was a tit for tat chip as far as what I'm picking up for our China Watchers. But let's just bottom line that we do not have detente with China despite what Biden said the other day that he thought that it was the, we had turned the corner and there was going to be improved relations. No, that's not the case. As you said, some incidents over the weekend,

they continue not to, to talk and embarrass if you will, our defense secretary. So uh this is not turning itself around as far as us China relationships and it's got our Western allies nervous and a number of other countries because you, you just need a more stable relationship between the two world superpowers.

they continue not to, to talk and embarrass if you will, our defense secretary. So uh this is not turning itself around as far as us China relationships and it's got our Western allies nervous and a number of other countries because you, you just need a more stable relationship between the two world superpowers.

Um

Um

How boy, this is a high dollar question, I'm asking you

How boy, this is a high dollar question, I'm asking you

because if you've got the answer to this. You'll probably be off uh consulting for somebody else after this. What is next on this? I, what if, if X happens,

because if you've got the answer to this. You'll probably be off uh consulting for somebody else after this. What is next on this? I, what if, if X happens,

you feel good. If X happens, your concern level grows

you feel good. If X happens, your concern level grows

well, my concern level would grow if uh the Biden administration gives China what they want and it's a reduction in the tariffs. That's really what Xi wants. He wants the, they, they, they, yeah, they're telling him privately, we're gonna, we'll open up in meetings with the defense secretary with who uh state department uh secretary

well, my concern level would grow if uh the Biden administration gives China what they want and it's a reduction in the tariffs. That's really what Xi wants. He wants the, they, they, they, yeah, they're telling him privately, we're gonna, we'll open up in meetings with the defense secretary with who uh state department uh secretary

if you reduce the tariffs. Now, remember what we talked about on a talk Friday under section 301, the phase one of the US China trade agreement is up for review. That means the sanctions that we have on China

if you reduce the tariffs. Now, remember what we talked about on a talk Friday under section 301, the phase one of the US China trade agreement is up for review. That means the sanctions that we have on China

are up for review and China also has sanctions on our products. They haven't reduced or taken them off. But to me that would be a sign of weakness on the part of the US administration if they cut just to get appointments,

are up for review and China also has sanctions on our products. They haven't reduced or taken them off. But to me that would be a sign of weakness on the part of the US administration if they cut just to get appointments,

you know, and that would be seen as a sign of weakness. I just think we're into this period of multi years of holding your breath as far as hopefully an accident doesn't happen. I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see improved relations uh barring uh uh this country reducing uh sanctionss and just uh

you know, and that would be seen as a sign of weakness. I just think we're into this period of multi years of holding your breath as far as hopefully an accident doesn't happen. I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see improved relations uh barring uh uh this country reducing uh sanctionss and just uh

uh you know, going jeez why?

uh you know, going jeez why?

Ok. Well, on Monday afternoon, on Agritalk had a conversation with Alan Suman from the Stone X group and he said something that kind of gave me chills and you just use the word he says, you know, the market also has to be concerned about an accidental war with China.

Ok. Well, on Monday afternoon, on Agritalk had a conversation with Alan Suman from the Stone X group and he said something that kind of gave me chills and you just use the word he says, you know, the market also has to be concerned about an accidental war with China.

Yeah. Huh.

Yeah. Huh.

It, that's how other world wars have started. You know, you, you can, you don't predict it, but this is why you can't come. This is why the US released the video to show how close

It, that's how other world wars have started. You know, you, you can, you don't predict it, but this is why you can't come. This is why the US released the video to show how close

uh these planes came and they're in international waters, they're in international water. China just wants us out of that Asia area so they can take over that part of the world literally, that's, that's what every China watcher is telling us.

uh these planes came and they're in international waters, they're in international water. China just wants us out of that Asia area so they can take over that part of the world literally, that's, that's what every China watcher is telling us.

Ok. Um Us trade representative, Catherine Tai seems to be getting more aggressive with Mexico or is getting more aggressive with Mexico

Ok. Um Us trade representative, Catherine Tai seems to be getting more aggressive with Mexico or is getting more aggressive with Mexico

regarding the uh Mexico's ban on GMO yellow corn for human consumption.

regarding the uh Mexico's ban on GMO yellow corn for human consumption.

Yeah. And you know, when we talked about this on Agritalk Friday, this was before the announcement Friday and we, we all agreed that you saw the signs coming that the Biden administration was finally going to announce a uh uh you know, request a dispute settlement consultation under the US MC A and they did and that was their most forceful move yet. And, but this has gone on for, for what a year, a year on this one.

Yeah. And you know, when we talked about this on Agritalk Friday, this was before the announcement Friday and we, we all agreed that you saw the signs coming that the Biden administration was finally going to announce a uh uh you know, request a dispute settlement consultation under the US MC A and they did and that was their most forceful move yet. And, but this has gone on for, for what a year, a year on this one.

So A and the US is, it keeps saying that Mexico's biotechnology policies aren't scientifically based. But then Mexico's Economy ministry ministry over the weekend, they, they, he defended the position and said, uh, look, uh we produce more white corn for tortillas than we consume.

So A and the US is, it keeps saying that Mexico's biotechnology policies aren't scientifically based. But then Mexico's Economy ministry ministry over the weekend, they, they, he defended the position and said, uh, look, uh we produce more white corn for tortillas than we consume.

Uh So while imported us corn is used for livestock feed and industrial purposes, you know, but for the, uh for the food corn, they take a different opinion and that they're at longer heads on this one. I, I just see Mexico continuing to drag their feet because it's a political issue, domestic political issue

Uh So while imported us corn is used for livestock feed and industrial purposes, you know, but for the, uh for the food corn, they take a different opinion and that they're at longer heads on this one. I, I just see Mexico continuing to drag their feet because it's a political issue, domestic political issue

in Mexico. And so I think Obrador doesn't, he's president until the summer of next year and I, I see it lingering until then, Jeff.

in Mexico. And so I think Obrador doesn't, he's president until the summer of next year and I, I see it lingering until then, Jeff.

OK.

OK.

Um

Um

The, the, till next, the timeline on this. Do you, are you thinking that it could be finished up by this time next year?

The, the, till next, the timeline on this. Do you, are you thinking that it could be finished up by this time next year?

Oh, I know I didn't say finished up. It's gonna linger. Then we're gonna have to see the new president coming in to Mexico and, and whether or not then what happens then, but that it'll be an opportunity for uh an agreement. Probably. I think you'll get an agreement within the second half of 2024.

Oh, I know I didn't say finished up. It's gonna linger. Then we're gonna have to see the new president coming in to Mexico and, and whether or not then what happens then, but that it'll be an opportunity for uh an agreement. Probably. I think you'll get an agreement within the second half of 2024.

And if everything is a science based decision and if everything is based on what was agreed to in the US MC A, this will be a US victory.

And if everything is a science based decision and if everything is based on what was agreed to in the US MC A, this will be a US victory.

Uh Yes, even though it's taken long again, uh what one of the hallmarks of the US MC A was a hoped for accelerated process of dispute settlements. We have not seen that yet. Look at Canada, we've not yet settled the dairy issues with Canada.

Uh Yes, even though it's taken long again, uh what one of the hallmarks of the US MC A was a hoped for accelerated process of dispute settlements. We have not seen that yet. Look at Canada, we've not yet settled the dairy issues with Canada.

So again, it's just, uh, well, Jim,

So again, it's just, uh, well, Jim,

some of those things, you just hope they eventually go away.

some of those things, you just hope they eventually go away.

Yeah,

Yeah,

they don't, not in da nothing ever goes away in dairy policy.

they don't, not in da nothing ever goes away in dairy policy.

No, no, that's, that's right. You know, we haven't spoken a whole lot about dairy policy in the farm bill, but they're gonna be working on the new federal milk marketing order. We have had a conversation about it on Agritalk, but we need to look into that a little bit more as we go on. And

No, no, that's, that's right. You know, we haven't spoken a whole lot about dairy policy in the farm bill, but they're gonna be working on the new federal milk marketing order. We have had a conversation about it on Agritalk, but we need to look into that a little bit more as we go on. And

when you can, my first day

when you can, my first day

ever in the AG sector reporting was a don't AG service, April Fools day 1972 to be exact. I was told by one of my mentors. If I ever understood dairy policy, it was time to retire. I'm still working when you deal with 50

ever in the AG sector reporting was a don't AG service, April Fools day 1972 to be exact. I was told by one of my mentors. If I ever understood dairy policy, it was time to retire. I'm still working when you deal with 50

one years later. Ladies and gentlemen,

one years later. Ladies and gentlemen,

let me just

let me just

tell you when you deal with milk marketing orders, you talk about opening up a mine shaft. I'll believe it when I see it. If there's substantial reform in that one. On the other side, we have some of the best dairy policy

tell you when you deal with milk marketing orders, you talk about opening up a mine shaft. I'll believe it when I see it. If there's substantial reform in that one. On the other side, we have some of the best dairy policy

now that I've ever seen in my entire career here. And I think that they can improve it by bringing in more producers, more of the large midsize really producers into the safety net. Program and I think that they will. So dairy programs I think is the least of their worries. We have other farm bill concerns and it's primarily the title one safety net. And there's another reason this thing could drag out Chip because

now that I've ever seen in my entire career here. And I think that they can improve it by bringing in more producers, more of the large midsize really producers into the safety net. Program and I think that they will. So dairy programs I think is the least of their worries. We have other farm bill concerns and it's primarily the title one safety net. And there's another reason this thing could drag out Chip because

I know you talked to Colin Peterson about this. Uh, it, it's gonna cost so much money to get reference prices to where they should be primarily because of corn and soybeans. The millions of acres grown that I'm not not saying they shouldn't have the increase, but, uh, you just dwarf the $20 billion that it's gonna take

I know you talked to Colin Peterson about this. Uh, it, it's gonna cost so much money to get reference prices to where they should be primarily because of corn and soybeans. The millions of acres grown that I'm not not saying they shouldn't have the increase, but, uh, you just dwarf the $20 billion that it's gonna take

to make those reference prices more realistic. So now the argument behind the scenes is, well, you know, cotton and rice need an increase more than the other program commodities because of when looking at the last few years, their input cost relative to prices received. At least that's the argument you you get. Uh, but that issue is far from settled, but that is an issue.

to make those reference prices more realistic. So now the argument behind the scenes is, well, you know, cotton and rice need an increase more than the other program commodities because of when looking at the last few years, their input cost relative to prices received. At least that's the argument you you get. Uh, but that issue is far from settled, but that is an issue.

Ok.

Ok.

Ok. Um,

Ok. Um,

it is Pork week here at uh Farm Journal Jim. And uh, it's, it, it goes along with, uh, the World Pork Expo down in Des Moines Agritalk will be there on Wednesday and Thursday, I wrote down the booth. Uh, we will be at the farm Journal booth V 7 85 stop by and uh, say hello.

it is Pork week here at uh Farm Journal Jim. And uh, it's, it, it goes along with, uh, the World Pork Expo down in Des Moines Agritalk will be there on Wednesday and Thursday, I wrote down the booth. Uh, we will be at the farm Journal booth V 7 85 stop by and uh, say hello.

And one of the, the biggest topics of conversation,

And one of the, the biggest topics of conversation,

at least among the state organizations and among the producers that will be there is gonna be California prop 12. It's gotta be what's the latest there? Oh,

at least among the state organizations and among the producers that will be there is gonna be California prop 12. It's gotta be what's the latest there? Oh,

definitely. And this is what MP PC

definitely. And this is what MP PC

as a national group should, should tell those people that they bet N P PC officials met with California Department of Food and AG animal Care program officials on May the 23rd JEP to work on securing a smooth transition

as a national group should, should tell those people that they bet N P PC officials met with California Department of Food and AG animal Care program officials on May the 23rd JEP to work on securing a smooth transition

for pork producers with minimal marketplace disruption. And now due to the that need, they ask uh CD FA that's a California group to host three seminar webinars to provide more guidance and that's exactly what happened. So I hope they, they, they

for pork producers with minimal marketplace disruption. And now due to the that need, they ask uh CD FA that's a California group to host three seminar webinars to provide more guidance and that's exactly what happened. So I hope they, they, they

tell the, the participants their background role in this on June the sixth, they're gonna have a webinar for end users. That's uh uh what you know, retailers, restaurants and food processors. June the 13th, a webinar for distributors uh selling or distributing covered product to the end user

tell the, the participants their background role in this on June the sixth, they're gonna have a webinar for end users. That's uh uh what you know, retailers, restaurants and food processors. June the 13th, a webinar for distributors uh selling or distributing covered product to the end user

in California. And then on the 27th, a webinar for actual pork producers uh keeping our housing breeding pigs. Well, that's a step more than a step in the right direction to, to sound it out. So I applaud N P PC for doing that. I just hope they reveal that.

in California. And then on the 27th, a webinar for actual pork producers uh keeping our housing breeding pigs. Well, that's a step more than a step in the right direction to, to sound it out. So I applaud N P PC for doing that. I just hope they reveal that.

Yeah, I do too.

Yeah, I do too.

I do too. Uh I also hope that um the efforts

I do too. Uh I also hope that um the efforts

to

to

uh initiate some sort of legislation,

uh initiate some sort of legislation,

whether it be through the farm bill or a, a standalone bill

whether it be through the farm bill or a, a standalone bill

there that there is some effort by Congress to override prop 12. I keep hearing consensus for it. I don't know if I've seen any progress.

there that there is some effort by Congress to override prop 12. I keep hearing consensus for it. I don't know if I've seen any progress.

It's gonna be rough when you look at the tally chip, uh, the California lawmakers, you know, it's got something controversial near the end of the year. It's gonna be hard to get out of Congress. That doesn't mean it's impossible. But I don't think it's a slam dunk that some of the Aggies thought, uh, it would be when we first started. Uh,

It's gonna be rough when you look at the tally chip, uh, the California lawmakers, you know, it's got something controversial near the end of the year. It's gonna be hard to get out of Congress. That doesn't mean it's impossible. But I don't think it's a slam dunk that some of the Aggies thought, uh, it would be when we first started. Uh,

you know, you, you know, talking about this. Uh, I also want to talk about the good side of this, uh, that food CEO uh, uh, uh, acknowledged, uh, that the company have invested major sums in transitioning their hog farms to comply with the prop 12. So, uh, he didn't reveal their cost involved in that, but he said they, they should start recuperating

you know, you, you know, talking about this. Uh, I also want to talk about the good side of this, uh, that food CEO uh, uh, uh, acknowledged, uh, that the company have invested major sums in transitioning their hog farms to comply with the prop 12. So, uh, he didn't reveal their cost involved in that, but he said they, they should start recuperating

some of those costs soon. Now, that means he thinks products are gonna start going in there. Uh, so they, they're already prop 12 compliant for part of their pork supply since January 2022 chip. So I applaud them for that, uh, because they, they apparently saw the directions I had that most people didn't see

some of those costs soon. Now, that means he thinks products are gonna start going in there. Uh, so they, they're already prop 12 compliant for part of their pork supply since January 2022 chip. So I applaud them for that, uh, because they, they apparently saw the directions I had that most people didn't see

and their CEO, by the way is Jim.

and their CEO, by the way is Jim.

Ok.

Ok.

Yeah, I, I still find it hard to believe that this is where we're at. That

Yeah, I, I still find it hard to believe that this is where we're at. That

it, it, it just, uh, it stun, it still stuns me

it, it, it just, uh, it stun, it still stuns me

that consumers in California are determining

that consumers in California are determining

how

how

Iowa producers can feral pigs.

Iowa producers can feral pigs.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Well, it, it could lead to other, uh, uh, uh, other topics in the same way. Yeah, there's, and this is why I know, uh, N P PC officials probably are shell shocked on this one. So they're, they're probably still reeling about this, uh, because I think it was a big shock to them. They didn't think this was going to turn out in the Supreme Court the way

Well, it, it could lead to other, uh, uh, uh, other topics in the same way. Yeah, there's, and this is why I know, uh, N P PC officials probably are shell shocked on this one. So they're, they're probably still reeling about this, uh, because I think it was a big shock to them. They didn't think this was going to turn out in the Supreme Court the way

it did. Right. Ok.

it did. Right. Ok.

Yeah. And shouldn't have. Ok. Um,

Yeah. And shouldn't have. Ok. Um,

give me the, the latest on the Ukrainian

give me the, the latest on the Ukrainian

counteroffensive. Is it really a counteroffensive?

counteroffensive. Is it really a counteroffensive?

It is now? Yes. Yes, it is. Now, it's going big time as of, as of today. Yeah. Uh, that big time. So we're gonna see and, and Ukraine's going into those big trenches that the Russians have, have built. Uh, so now we're going to see the next few weeks we're going to see if they can claw back some of those, uh, uh, those areas that, that, uh, Russia hounded him with.

It is now? Yes. Yes, it is. Now, it's going big time as of, as of today. Yeah. Uh, that big time. So we're gonna see and, and Ukraine's going into those big trenches that the Russians have, have built. Uh, so now we're going to see the next few weeks we're going to see if they can claw back some of those, uh, uh, those areas that, that, uh, Russia hounded him with.

Ok.

Ok.

All right. We're almost out of time here, Jim. Uh, what, what else are you watching this week? What else is, has piqued your interest?

All right. We're almost out of time here, Jim. Uh, what, what else are you watching this week? What else is, has piqued your interest?

Well, we have a farm bill hearing both in the house and the Senate. So that's continuing. Uh, I'll be in Naples Florida later this week, uh, to the Cotton Warehouse, uh, meeting. Always look, you know, forward to that. Uh, I think we have, uh, uh, some world uh

Well, we have a farm bill hearing both in the house and the Senate. So that's continuing. Uh, I'll be in Naples Florida later this week, uh, to the Cotton Warehouse, uh, meeting. Always look, you know, forward to that. Uh, I think we have, uh, uh, some world uh

some world uh economic reports coming out this week, Jim uh

some world uh economic reports coming out this week, Jim uh

uh from the World Bank unveils their summer edition of the Global Economic Outlook tomorrow, Tuesday. And the O E E D OECD releases their economic outlook Wednesday. They're important because it's going to set the tone for the world GDP, gross domestic product. And I think that they're gonna be important because from an agriculture standpoint, you have to have the ability to buy and that's gonna go a long ways when we look country by country, what their forecasts are.

uh from the World Bank unveils their summer edition of the Global Economic Outlook tomorrow, Tuesday. And the O E E D OECD releases their economic outlook Wednesday. They're important because it's going to set the tone for the world GDP, gross domestic product. And I think that they're gonna be important because from an agriculture standpoint, you have to have the ability to buy and that's gonna go a long ways when we look country by country, what their forecasts are.

OK. Uh From a market's perspective and what I'm watching this week, number one live cattle, June live cattle set a new spot month all time high on Monday's trade backed off from the highs actually closed below the open, they're still higher on the day, but they gap to a new high. This it, it looked like a very organized controlled move to the upside again in live cattle. Today, the cash market is still trading way above the futures market.

OK. Uh From a market's perspective and what I'm watching this week, number one live cattle, June live cattle set a new spot month all time high on Monday's trade backed off from the highs actually closed below the open, they're still higher on the day, but they gap to a new high. This it, it looked like a very organized controlled move to the upside again in live cattle. Today, the cash market is still trading way above the futures market.

Um I, we can see a long liquidation break in live cattle at any time. Uh I mean any time but fundamental for still price positive.

Um I, we can see a long liquidation break in live cattle at any time. Uh I mean any time but fundamental for still price positive.

Yes, I have the pro farmer people do me some bullet points for this for my upcoming speech and,

Yes, I have the pro farmer people do me some bullet points for this for my upcoming speech and,

and when they put on cattle, they said bullish, that's a bold prediction with cash market at all time high, what you just said and futures near and then they told me all time high and futures they see in the second half as supply side fundamentals. Titan demand is the wild

and when they put on cattle, they said bullish, that's a bold prediction with cash market at all time high, what you just said and futures near and then they told me all time high and futures they see in the second half as supply side fundamentals. Titan demand is the wild

card. Yes, absolutely. Demand is because the supply side we know is tight and going to, um, to get even tighter.

card. Yes, absolutely. Demand is because the supply side we know is tight and going to, um, to get even tighter.

The other thing that I'm watching is this hog market. We had a beautiful $10 rally in four days. Last week, started this week off with some lower prices in the June. But hey, last week we did a lot with just four days. We let's see what we can do in this hog market as we go forward. It'd be cool to see the guys down at the pork expo in a good move with, uh, with hog prices moving to the upside after what they've been after what they've been through. And then of course, Jim, weather,

The other thing that I'm watching is this hog market. We had a beautiful $10 rally in four days. Last week, started this week off with some lower prices in the June. But hey, last week we did a lot with just four days. We let's see what we can do in this hog market as we go forward. It'd be cool to see the guys down at the pork expo in a good move with, uh, with hog prices moving to the upside after what they've been after what they've been through. And then of course, Jim, weather,

weather, weather, weather, uh, the pop-up showers that we had in the western corn belt late last week and over the weekend, I think provided some relief in scattered scattered relief, but it was needed relief. We're dry up here in northeast Iowa. Jim. I, I did a little bit of driving around over the weekend

weather, weather, weather, uh, the pop-up showers that we had in the western corn belt late last week and over the weekend, I think provided some relief in scattered scattered relief, but it was needed relief. We're dry up here in northeast Iowa. Jim. I, I did a little bit of driving around over the weekend

and corn is at a stage that normally doesn't show stress and it's showing stress there. The, you know, you've got plants that are, are 10 to 15, 16 inches high and starting to roll up. And, and so that is a dicey situation at this time of the year for that corn crop. We need some relief. We, and we need it yesterday. Um,

and corn is at a stage that normally doesn't show stress and it's showing stress there. The, you know, you've got plants that are, are 10 to 15, 16 inches high and starting to roll up. And, and so that is a dicey situation at this time of the year for that corn crop. We need some relief. We, and we need it yesterday. Um,

and so we're gonna continue to watch this weather forecast. The, the forecasters are saying, listen, it looks like we've got a change in the pattern coming after this weekend. Maybe June, maybe even over the weekend, June 10, June 11. So really important to watch that.

and so we're gonna continue to watch this weather forecast. The, the forecasters are saying, listen, it looks like we've got a change in the pattern coming after this weekend. Maybe June, maybe even over the weekend, June 10, June 11. So really important to watch that.

Um, on Friday, we get the supply and demand report, we get the winter wheat production estimate. USDA second survey based estimate of winter wheat production. So

Um, on Friday, we get the supply and demand report, we get the winter wheat production estimate. USDA second survey based estimate of winter wheat production. So

a lot for the markets to absorb this week, Jeb.

a lot for the markets to absorb this week, Jeb.

Yep. Yep. Well, at least we have a fresh survey numbers for the wheat

Yep. Yep. Well, at least we have a fresh survey numbers for the wheat

sector. That's right. All right, man. Have safe travels. Ok. All right. That is Jim. We, Myer Pro farmer policy analyst. I am Agri talk host, Chip Flore. Come back and talk to us again next week. In the meantime, keep watching for those signals.

sector. That's right. All right, man. Have safe travels. Ok. All right. That is Jim. We, Myer Pro farmer policy analyst. I am Agri talk host, Chip Flore. Come back and talk to us again next week. In the meantime, keep watching for those signals.