12/12/24-Coast To Coast Hoops

Published Dec 12, 2024, 7:24 AM

Greg recaps Wednesday's college basketball results, talks to Justin Perri of Shot Quality Bets about the takeaways he’s had from the past few weeks of games, the way he views the market & line moves this time of year, & Thursday’s games, & Greg picks & analyzes EVERY Thursday CBB game!

Link To Greg’s Spreadsheet of handicapped lines: https://vsin.com/college-basketball/greg-petersons-daily-college-basketball-lines/ 

Greg’s TikTok With Pickmas Pick Videos: https://www.tiktok.com/@gregpetersonsports?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc

 

Podcast Highlights 

5:58-Recap of Wednesday's CBB results

18:29-Interview with Justin Perri

42:02-Start of picks No Carolina A&T vs Virginia Tech

44:15-Picks & analysis for Campbell vs The Citadel 

46:27-Picks & analysis for Iowa State vs Iowa

48:45-Picks & analysis for UT Arlington vs Arkansas St

50:46-Picks & analysis for New Mexico St vs Texas

52:45-Picks & analysis for Evansville vs Chattanooga 

54:36-Picks & analysis for Bethune Cookman vs Virginia

Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan and Morgan is easy. Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury firm. They have over one hundred offices nationwide and more than one thousand lawyers. Their fee is free until they win. Find out more information at for the people dot com slash best bets or dial pound law that is pound five to nine from your cell phone and that is four fo r the people dot com slash best bets. This is a paid advertisement if remember leave, Oh, welcome to wealthy Las Vegas. But because with myself Greigkeeps Peterson now part of the Decent Family podcast. You've got next one podcast for you as joining me in segment number two, You're gonna have on one of our good friends, Justin Berry, does such tremendous workover at chockqally Bets. They gonna look at this great game that we all know and love of college basketball. We're gonna ask him just some of the things that he takes a look at this time of year. In terms of teams that have been a little bit lucky slash unlucky, in terms of shooting variants, trying to be able to track a little bit of value there. How he's been reading the market out sometimes with regards to closing line value. It's meaningful. Sometimes it can be a little bit synthetic as well. It's a nice, wide ranging conversation about nineteen to twenty minutes of just good stuff with Justin very much looking forward to that. It's segment number two. Then in the final se We're gonna get you guys picks in analysis on every game. I'm on the betting board for this college basketball Thursday, as we had some bank shots. If you do have a question, come at segment idea. But I before this podcast, you have one of two a'sbo far those in first one is my Twitter slash x timeline at you and at under scoredy one. Keep in mind letter ZM. Mayby does some exercised per usual. Please send these into the timeline and the other ways. Find an Apple podcast review. If you read this podcast five starves, it is very much appreciated. From there, you're able fire in whatever you'd like here on this podcast via that five star review. Did not get in any Twitter slash x questions today, but had a great day of college basketball on Wednesday. Let's take a look back at it, try to find some trends in, try to get to know these seems a little bit better.

Games for yesterday is Creig buzzing about.

Here is the rowdy recap.

A lot of ranked teams in college basketball in action on Wednesday, but one team had an all mighty struggle as Kentucky. They get by Colgate, but by kind of seventy eight to sixty seven. Keep in mind Kentucky without Lamont Butler, also without Kirkriasa in this one, so that meant a lot more Kobe Bray in this game, and he was solid five of eight from three point range. He typically is coming off the bench popping threes. Now he had to be in the starting lineup, but clearly looking for that main facilitator as every single starter for Kentucky was able to put up double figures, but only to combined nine points off the bench. Meanwhile, for Colgate they should have leven a thirty three from three point range. It's been a little bit of a lesson savory season for them, but they were able to get seventeen points out of Perker Jones and that kept them very lively in this one. In San Diego State, they also going to win, but they do not get a cover as well. It's eighty one to seventy five they get by cal Baptists. For cal Baptists they go twelve to thirty three from three and San Diego State won nine of seventeen from distance. Cal Baptists does lose the turnal battle thirteen to seven, but they won the rebound battle thirty one to twenty three. As in this one you had to many annuals lead the way with twenty two points six assists, and for cal Baptists, whole was greater than some of its parts with regards to being able to pulling those rebounds and when the nation's leaders shot blocks mcgoon mcwothe hopefully I said that correctly ten points and one two of three from three part range at seven feet tall, so pretty impressive there, Ding Dong the Witches Z For Louisiana, they finally have a cover. They were the last team in college basketball that had not covered and spread. They get by Southeast Louisiana. This by kind of sixty eight to sixty one, and it was not easy like Louisiana, and this game was signed sixty one to sixty one with about two minutes a change remaining, Kendall Davis puts in their fifteen points. It's been a not a great year for Louisiana and Southeast Louisiana just two of fourteen from three part range. So the raised Incasions are able to get the job done and they are on the board with a cover. Also on the board with a cover was Byus. It's been a not so great year for Fresno State ninety five to sixty seven the final. And for Freslo State, they've been really interesting with reguards their totals because they've been an up tempo team that has not necessarily put the ball in the basket, so they were able to get it over in this one. I think that it was only their second or third over all season long. But for this BYU team, they go fourteen to thirty four from three part range. They had every single one they started scoring double figures, including Trevin Nell who splied the team with twenty two points sen rebounds for Frezsaate, hopefully you took this one if you took them at twenty eight plus, because this number moved all over the place. But we're able to get fifteen points out of Jalen Weaver as well, so EYU a nice win there. And then we also saw Navada get a win and cover over South Dakota State, this by a kount of seventy seven to sixty three. South Dakota State actually shot it pretty solidly from three part range as well. They go combined twelve of thirty five from distance as had a four to twelve three point shooting expos from Joe Sailor who put in their fifteen points, but not a lot of up around the Meanwhile, for Nevada, you had sixteen points six board, six assists out of Nick Davidson to be able to pace away and then off the bench fourteen big ones out of Heather Rolson for them to be able to get the job done. Utah Valleys by a little bit of an interesting team eighty to fifty seven. They get by a North Dakota bunch has very much been a scuffling as far this season, and well, this team is right now scuffling in terms of against the spread record Louisville. After a very nice start to the season, they now have just two overs to eight unders. This was one of those overs seventy seven to seventy four they get by UTEP, maybe not cover double figures out as they went six of thirty four from three. They should see some three point shooting positivity coming moving forward. But for UTEP, nine to twenty from three part range for them as off the bench fourteen big points out of Ahmad buying them as he was able to bury those threes and they were able to find a way to persevere. In North Alabama, another road win for them. They have pulled off a few road wins as a money line underdogs seventy four to sixty seven. They take down East Carolina's East Carolina because just five to twenty four from three, North Alabama nine to twenty four from distance Chakari Lane nineteen points in a double double, twelve points eleven boards out of tay Fields as well, so a very good performance. Hec Daniel Ortiz, who was over at UAB last season. He was actually the low in terms of starters in terms of scoring. This was a low point for UW Green Bay. They lose their interra Sate rival UW Milwaukee eighty eight to sixty seven. We saw the Godlieb speculating about Bill Belichick on Fox Sports Radio in the am probably should have prepared a little bit more for UW Milwaukee and Anthony Roy after his mentioned the last game splies a team with twenty points Marcus Hall eighteen and not much else from anyone else in for UW Milwaukee a twelve of twenty nine three point shooting blister, and you had Jamaichael Stillwell twenty four points, nineteen rebounds. He has been one of the best rebounders in all of college basketball. One of the best scorers in all of college basketball, that'd be Eric Dixon. He is now I believe, number two in terms of points per game, just behind Anthony Roy eighty six to seventy two. The final entered into Wednesday night averaging twenty six points per contest. He puts up twenty seven in this game as Villanova just seven twenty four from three, So they're unable to cover the mondo north of twenty five point number that they were laying. But you still had Dixon with a pretty good performance in Hey, how about twenty seven points in this one along with forressst from Terrence Brown for Fairley Dickinson to be able to get that cover. For Decaine, it has been a less than tremendous season for them. To say the least, they have been one of your worst cover eight teams in all of college basketball. And not only did they not cover on Wednesday, they while it's outright, they lose Maine by kind of sixty one to fifty six. For Decaine now two and eight against the spread, that's far the season. As for Main, they go just four of nine from three parrange, but they made them counting. Ducaine does go eleven to twenty six from three parrange. Time was they lost the turnover battle by a kind of nineteen to fourteen. As this Main team, they do a great job of generating steals, calling times Jane and Clayton between the two of them eight steals to be able to get the job done for Maine and then nngit well, they have not been getting the job done straight up against the spread no matter what metric you're looking at. At Delware State, they are able to get a nice quality win here by kind of seventy one to fifty nine. As for Delaware State, they hold in JIT to five of twenty seven three point shooting and NJT been one of your best under teams in all of college basketball. Far this season as well U Mass Low, they were able to just get by a Long Island. Long Island has actually been able to cover quite a few spreads as far the season. They were catching double figures, so they did so once again on this night, sixty nine to sixty two the finals for Long Island. They led you mass Loll to six to twenty three point shooting and really sold this game down. They were able to win that turnover battle seventeen to eleven, so kudos to them. By the way, Fairley Dickinson out there in the NEC as well. It touched upon before they covered against Villanova now seven to two against the spread, so they haven't any team that has been able to cover quite a few games thus far this season. And we also saw this team be able to get the job done early on Baylor ninety four to sixty nine they take down Norfolk status. Baylor has been one of your top over teams in all of college basketball thus far the season, and for that matter, so as Norfolk staate as both of these teams have just been blistering with regards there scoring for Baylor eight overs and two unders thus far the season, and for Baylor they went in this one nine of twenty six from three parts, which is actually low for them at home. But you add Norfolk State lose to turnover Battle twenty to eight, and you had a double double, sixteen points, thirteen assists out of Robert Right the third. He was mister right on this day, as Baylor had a four different start to score at least sixteen points in this one and scoring big points right now. Has been underdogs in college basketball all season long. If you've been taking them against the spread, you've been doing quite well, as the dogs are hitting at a fifty one point six percent clip thus far the season eight fifteen, seven to sixty three and twenty four against the spread over so hold a little bit of a lead on under seven hundred and ninety eight overs to seven hundred and eighty two unders. Meanwhile, you're looking at just last seven days in college basketball, been a little bit overwhelming. One n fourteen overs so one on six underds, so fifty one point eight percent right there, and the favorites have been able to regain a little bit of form one eleven to one oh nine and five against the spread. So that's where we're seeing college bass right now. And that's where we're getting trend wise now coming up next, So how about if we talk some shop with Justin Perry. We're gonna be looking at a little bit of everything, how to approach his time of year. Why just because he has smaller slates as well, it doesn't mean that you need to go hog wild on the cart and so much more. And we'll be chatting with him next Ardy on CUSCA six with myself Beggets Peterson, that hurt and decent family podcastle We're Bagular, love you Las Vegas, We're good seems with myself Meggie S. Peterson now part of the Vison Family podcasts. And it's always great to beat you on by this man. As we've got Justin Perry aboard. He does a tremendous job over at Chalk qual you bets take a look at this great game that we all know love of college basketball. I know that he's locked in on all the action that we're seeing. And additionally he does great work over right Action Network. I know that he does the Justin Perry show as well. So this man is all over the place. He does a great job of looking at this wonderful game. And you know, BEFO my Twitter side checks at his first and last name, Justin Perry. That last name spelled p E r R I, the number eight all together and justin always watch my friend.

Thank you so much, Greg, It is always such a pleasure to join.

You here on the show and just chat a little hoops.

Honestly, been such a fun start to the see and I cannot believe we're sitting here, what two weeks away from celebrating the holidays. It is quite the whirlwind of a start. There's so many games so quickly. Feast week hits us before you know it. Honestly, a little bit of a rest slash come down week from the mid November madness that we get and then it's finals. We're just sort of sitting here, maybe trying to collect all of our thoughts for how much has happened. And that's kind of fun because Conference player is right around the corner of the minute that all these guys are done, you know, studying up.

Yeah, absolutely, I do want to get your thoughts on that, because you just mentioned it. We've got sort of a shall we say, herky jerkiness with college basketball the next week or two, where some of these days you've got one hundred million billion games, and some of these days, like the one that we're going to be seeing on Thursday, we've got a whopping seven games. How do you just go about some of the smaller days, Because I know there are two schools of thoughts. Some people just completely take them off, and then some people they are going hogwild. They are betting every single game, regardless of if they have an edge on it or not. And I think that the answer is somewhere between A and B, because I do think that there could be some great edges on some of these smaller cards. At the same time, too, you don't want to force up action just for the sake of having action.

Yeah, I don't think I've played a game differently because of how busy a day is.

You know, since I was a rookie.

You know, there's no reason there is if you're of course gambling just for entertainment, which is very much a thing that you know, I sometimes enjoy doing, just like many people I'm sure who are tuning in do. But we're here to discuss doing it with the idea of, like for sport for profit, to really win and then beat the odds. So in that sense, I do not, you know, approach any game any differently if it ticks off the boxes that I need in terms of how I model games and John looking for it gets money on the table. That's just how it works, and it's a robotic process, so I don't really have to think too much about it, which is what keeps me clear headed and able to adapt because it's just whatever the stats are telling me to do.

Yeah, exactly. It might not be the most exciting answer, but in my opinion, it absolutely is the correct one. You play your edges. You don't go outside your comfort zone and be like, oh, we only have seven games today, instead of betting my standard one, you know, we're going three units on every game because we have a third of what I was expecting. I don't think that that's the best way of going about it. But of course, if you've got value, you have value, as we always do have value when we've got justin berry Board, he's joining to be right here ONCT soups. And now that the holiday tournaments are done, I feel like now we're getting a better sense of these teams, because I do think that with those tournaments you get a lot of hurkey jerkiness you get a lot of shall we say, strange results. Now we're able to dive in a little bit more, and what have you made out of the last week and alf or so of college basketball? Because I think in terms of these challenges, we've seen a divide between the halves, which is the SEC in terms of top conference off college basketball, andy have not conferences like the ACC that really just don't look to be up to snuff this season.

Yeah, I mean, you know, there's definitely been some risers and follers. I'm very impressed with what we've seen out of the SEC, with Tennessee and Auburn looking like the two contenders.

You know, I'm.

Guessing something will happen, one of them will fall off, or someone else will come on and you surp them. But if you asked me today who was going to the finals for the championship, that's probably my answers an SEC clash, which is pretty interesting because I was pretty in on Gonzaga recently and I would still consider them in the final four at this moment, and that fourth team is definitely a little more up in the air, with a pretty strong lean towards like Houston. But Duke Kentucky. I mean Maryland deserving some contention. They've started off really strong. I wasn't even too upset with that loss at Purdue. They were fighting and that's still a tough place to go play, even without Zach Edy. So Florida looks great. I'm a big fan. I'm a big Walter Clayton fan. I have been since he was with coach Patino at Iona. I was really hoping he would come play for my Saint Johnny's, but didn't happen.

He's at home in Florida and he is, you know, making me a little upset about it.

Clearly, Saint John's looks good, though I will say I'm holding my fifty to one.

I'm excited about it that they look R. J.

Lewis Junior is legit and he's going to be one of the top three or four players in the Big East this year. Really excited to see him have a bunch of tickets already lined up. So I think those are kind of big players, you know, in terms of maybe giving credit to some of the historical stuff, you definitely want to keep Alabama and Duke in the back of your mind and expect Illinois to stay consistent and maybe even see Perdue as a top fifteen team. But Cincinnati usurping Yukon and what I would consider my top twenty right now is a pretty interesting development. Got to see how they continue to play behind Gisel James, who is an amazing watch, just like an amazing name.

Yeah, absolutely, he has taken that year one to year or two jump. And that's always something that I take a look at with regards to some of these guards. And when it comes to teams that you think might take a jump, how do you take a look at that aspect of things as well, because there are some times where you have teams that get off to a little bit of shaky starter vice versa, teams that look much better than what they are. I always think that that's something interesting to do this time of year, because we do have a few teams that they have maybe a record of say eight and one, seven to one, that they might not be quite that good, and vice versa. Some of these teams that they're starting to get faded because they had a few bad results, and in reality, they're the teams that really lend a lot of value because they might have had a little bit of bad shooting variants.

Oh yeah, and you know, variance regression.

Those are my favorite words in college basketball, and they are the words that lay the foundation of what we do over at Shot Quality.

Bets, which if you are unfamiliar.

Is essentially using computer vision and AI to track the motion and the location of every single player on the court to understand where everyone is when the shots are taken, so that we can, you know, understand the action that develops every shot, the process essentially underneath whether a shot is made or not. We have proven not just found or guests, but have scientifically mathematically proven to be more predictive at both the team and player level in terms of predicting future performance. So you know, yeah, looking at these teams that are doing really well sitting here eight no nine and ohos nine and one's a lot of a lot of eight and ones. Most of those teams, it's not super unlikely to see them expected to have one extra loss tacked on rather than a win. That's just normal when you're at that level. Some of the ones that really stand out, I'll tell you right now. You see Irvine sitting eight and oh expected to be five and three. That's like a thirty six percent difference between their actual win percentage and their shot quality win percentage. Some other ones that look pretty jump off the page, where the Arizona State sitting eight and one expected to be five and four, which is a.

State same thing expected to.

Be five and four as well at eight and one. Furman is after Rhode Island took that loss to Brown in overtime. Rhode Island was the luckiest team in college basketball, but now it's Furman in the Southern they are expected to be four and four, So look for Furman to potentially continue to be overvalued winning games that you know are coming mostly from shooting luck rather than true shot development. And then another one is Charleston who continues to eke out wins that are pretty close but expected to be three and five. So these are like thirty percent differences between actual and I think you can.

Really gain a lot of value.

In that direction, more so, I think than the other direction, because people love a favorite, people love a hot I want to keep betting on this team they keep winning. I got to trust it, like so many people out there do bet like that. And I think the sports books are pretty sharp. One of the tells for a sharp gambler is how much respect they pay the books, like not just being like suspicious and just like understanding how it works and understanding how line movement works, not necessarily respecting every single line, but respecting the process of it.

All.

Those are spots when you have those wins coming in, you have to understand that the books will you know, sometimes shade or or sometimes react to public money and that come in on the teams that are making headlines because they're eight and one, seven to one as we get into late December, and that can be a good spot to take points against, especially not always money line which will again have equitable value. I'm a big spread guy in college basketball. I know you are too, Greg. It's a great time to sell high on a lot of those teams.

Yeah, I'm right there with you. And as you were talking, it just got me to thinking as well about a conversation I had on the old Twitter slash x a few days ago about anti air quotes here trap lines, and I personally, maybe I'm just wrong here. I don't believe that there's such thing as a trap line, like a lot of people were talking about. With Purdue being a very slight underdog against Penn State a few days ago and everything like that. And I think that the numbers make sense. The bookmakers have their po rankings, and while the public might think that it's off, it's not by any means to be trapping someone. It's just a book makers having disagreement with the pulsters having disagreement with the way that a team has maybe gone like six, one, five and one something like that. I'm not sure what your thoughts are, but I don't think that there is any such thing as and your quotes her trap line. But I do think that there is something very real about public perception that makes people think that there is.

Yeah, there's definitely something real. I think it goes with what we're talking about.

Actually, really well, it's exactly that. But it's the zig to the zag or the zag to the zig. I guess, if you want to get into it, it's the inverse, the contrapositive, whatever relationship. I think it's probably more the contrapositive you really want to get logistical. But what I'm talking about is it's like the spot Tex. Oh, this team just lost a big game. They're primed to bounce back. They're really good. They're not going to drop to at home. Like all these things, sometimes they impact lines. I don't personally believe they often do, especially in low major college basketball. Maybe if closing line value, we can sit here and talk about it for a long time, and I don't think it is what it was when you know, gambling and sports betting were not as appied to popularity of influencers and how many followers and liquidity that you can command behind you. You don't really get the same validity of the I guess closing line value that you did when it was just really quiet and it was just professional gamblers getting down and seeing if they would beat the market because it was a true market. Now it's a popularity tok best market and if Ris goes and drops the play and you got there before them.

You're going to, oh, yeah, you beat the markets gratulations. But is that really that true? I don't know.

I don't think I call that synthetic closing line value, but anyway, I digress.

In term, No, they definitely do not exist.

Books are at the end of the day setting openers based on efficiency models and power rankings. You know those are synonymous expecting the teams up by fifty spots in the rankings in this spot on the distribution based on this many adjusted points per one hundred possessions to you know, win by this many points over a team at home with this home court advantage rating. Maybe an adjustment for rest, maybe a slight adjustment in the market for what we're seeing right now at a good two to three points for big discrepancies.

So, like you know, when a biler in a Norfolk.

State hit and I think it isn't right. We're seeing it get wrong, right, You're seeing the market vet it down a little bit. That game got to twenty seven, It finished like twenty five, I think, yeah, twenty five, and right by the hook it closed twenty five. But like you know, twenty seven to twenty six was pretty valuable. It's because early in the season there were a lot of blowouts. But you know, now we're kind of getting our sea legs under us and you're not as fresh. So that talent disparity maybe is it as pronounced when guys have been traveling and running around to mtes and rotations are a little bit you know deeper.

So you know, we'll see and the.

Market reacts and the books, you know, tweak lines overnight a little bit more extras open a little bit differently. So yeah, I don't think there's trap lines, especially in college basketball, where you know, it's not really so much of a secret that it's just can you outsmart Ken Palm's model and can you figure out the spots where he might potentially be wrong for one.

Reason or another.

There's not that much factoring for rest even because it really it's just all part of the game. There's so many games you're playing at minus one ten on thousands of games, hundreds of games. The book is going to take those odds they are, And I wish I could play at plus one ten. I'd be on the beach too. I'd have towers in my backyard as well, so I always joke them on the wrong side. It's mathematically so different. So yeah, no such thing as a trap line. Books just trying to put themselves in the spot to get the most value out of that plus one ten as possible.

Ye have no question about it. And I think that that's so well said by you, as Justin Perry does such great workover at Chocolate a beus s going to be right here on gus gus soups and in terms of what we do have for Thursday. We were alluding to it a few minutes ago, very very light slate, just seven games in total. Anything that is jumping out to you because other than the Iowa versus Iowa state game, a lot of shall we save lesser games? But you know as well as I do, making money is not about how big the game is, It's about how big the edge is.

Yeah, I mean it's an interesting game, I'll say that.

I mean there's not anything that I think the average fans going to jump that outside of the interstate Iowa battle there, which is going to be great.

That's one of the games of the week for sure.

I think you can probably look at a couple of these teams. I think Virginia is still too well respected. It's going to be gross and actually interesting because how is if Bithun and Cookment can score early in that game and they actually like they can get some shots off, I.

Think you could take them live at any point.

As for you know, a game like Campbell in the Citadel, I do think Campbell is pretty undervalued right now, and they are expected to win that game on the road. I think they'll probably get it done a little more handedly than expected, A likely betting on them ut Arlington. Arkansas State's pretty interesting spot. Arlington's been decent. Expect them to probably struggle traveling though, that's just that's kind of a tough spot Arkansas State. Honestly, the program's doing pretty well. Brian Hodgson coming in last year looking like the best that Arkansas has been since they got one year of Grant McCasland in twenty seventeen. So the program's looking like they're trending upwards. And I do think that when that happens, home games get very formidable, and I think this is a pretty big spot and I do expect them to have some good support, especially after a tough look in game there against Jackson State for Arkansas State. So I would expect them, especially after just beating Memphis, they'll probably keep them mom intom going. And even if it is probably a decent price, I think you can keep buying in on Arkansas State. That's that's a pretty legitimate win on the road, even if Memphis shot terribly.

Yeah, that is a pretty legit win. And what else is legit is getting great guests on this podcast, like you justin You do such an amazing job over at Choco wal you bets justin Perry's show. Action Network list goes on and on, so love to get people at home. No, it's all on death for you and how people are able to fall on on social media and other platforms.

Yeah, for sure. You know, some would say I fire from the hip, but I'm a volume better.

I do play a pretty high clip, probably close to like thirty percent of games twenty five percent, which is a lot in college basketball, but play at a very small unit size so that you know, if I have twenty five bets on a Saturday, it's you know, not anything too crazy. It's reasonable for when too fifths of your week occurs in one afternoon.

Anyway, I do a lot of different things.

My biggest project is shot Quality Live bet Cast, which is our live betting show, which is on on Tuesday and Wednesday nights seven forty five pm Eastern and also Saturday afternoons at two forty five pm Eastern. We use our live in game regression data to make in game bets super exciting. Usually have great slates on twelve fifteen twenty games at once, live betting them all using expected scores, so it's a lot of fun, post a lot of other stuff too, have my Pick of the Day that I do every single night of cal Baptists plus fourteen plus fifteen and got a bunch of numbers. But anyway, it's a fun time. Do it all mostly through my Twitter account at Justin Perry ape r.

R I it's a good time.

College basketball best sport on Earth, babe, especially the best one to bet. Just no better combination of high possession numbers, data, sam and excitement. Honestly, it's the best.

Can't wait.

I'm going to be Vegas in march' supposed to book my tickets. Greg be back at Circa.

Absolutely I will need to meet up with you then, because there's no better person than Justin Perry to talk college basketball with. He does such an amazing job, be able to take a look at the sport that we all know in love and we were both on the same side of the cow Baptist game as well, so always love to hear that and always love to hear his voice on this podcast. Big things to Justin for joining me on Seeps Out part of the Visa Family podcast and let me next to it is that time of podcast. It give me picks and analysis and of game on the benning board for this college basketball Thursday. As we had some bank shots Comberbank, you Love You Las Vegas for cous couzeeps with myself Greg Speederson now part of the Visa Family podcast. Always great to be joined by Justin Perry. He does such an amazing job over at Shock quaal you bets with the Justin Perry Show, Action Network, and so much more. Every single time he joins me when such great insights did so once again today, So big things that Justin for joining me right here on COSTCASTEP, saying, now it is that time the podcast I give you picks and analysis on every game on the betting board for this college basketball Thursday. As we had some bank shots.

Most financial establishments calls at a certain time, but not here.

It is time for a sign in total on every game on today's betting board bank shots.

Do you know if that as per usual, any changes that are made to these plays will be listened up on my Twitter slash x feed at gene R forty one. It's pretty much going in time order, except for Bethune Cookman. Since they're in the mediac they get into the extra games board, that'll be the game that is at the bottom. So that'll keep things very nice, neat, clean and easy on a very small slate of games. So let's get things start with six sixty seven sixty sixty eight on the card. It is North Carolina and TEA and they're on the road facing coup against Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech, let's find themselves as fourteen point favorites. It's on this game between one forty seven to one forty eight and a half and I'll be right up the points with North Carolina A and T set them as a ten and a half point underdog. Virginia Tech just not the same team that they've been on offense in past years. Outside the top three hundred in terms of ball security, turned the ball over about fifteen times per contest outside the top two to fifty turns of points scored on a per possession basis, and and he is the opposite. They do a nice job taking care of the ball. Not quite top five like they were last year in terms of fewest turnovers per possession, but still a top forty team. With this regarding, you've got two top flight scores land in Glassber along with Ryan Forrest, we've been able to combine for thirty seven a half points per contest. They combined for a little bit over a rebounds glassberg right around three and a half assists. They combined for three seals per game. Not an amazing three point shooting team. They shoot a collective about thirty three percent for three. But one of the main facilitators in Kami and Schell, who's giving you four assists nine a half points per game, he's been shooting forty five percent from three part range, And though a t gonna get a little bit bludget on the glass, I do like what I'm seen out of Nicolas Chido Kittits, who has been able to give you nine point state boards, comes in from Greece, and he should be able to match up relatively okay down low with Toby Lawell, who's gonna probably be able to win that battle when it's all sudden on twelve points six boards out of him and then my Julio Potit he throws in their ten a half points five and a half boards, but the team has no backboard whatsoever. They were banking on Isier Miller being that Meme facilitator that did not happen, and that's meant that Brandon Retchsteiner has said to be the main guy in the backward give me three and a half a sis per game, but not really a threat to pop it from three point range north of two and a half turnovers per game. Ben Burnham, who comes on over from Charleston. He's been looking a little bit better recently, but expected more out of him than five points and four boards per contest after last year over at Charleston was having twelve points shot thirty seven per seven for three as a six ft seven a little bit of a combo player. Things just appear to be broken right now with Virginia Tech, and I just don't think that they're gonna be able to give you a lot of scoring in this one. So this is the circumstance where I'm gonna be writing up those points with A and T. It could only set my tot him one forty four and a half. So in on the under and writing up those points with A and T. Now you got a six to sixty nine to six to seventy on the betting board. Another game, though, right up the citadel plays Sosa Gambell Gamble between it pick him to a one point favorite totals game between one thirty five and a half to a one to thirty six and a half going to be writing up the Citadel on the money line. Have a pair of teams are outside the top two seventy turns a point scored on a per possession basis. But I think he's really going to be the X factory here the rebounding of the Citadel. They're a top one fifty teen with regards to the rebound rate, Gambell outside the top two to fifty with really nobody other than Nolan Dorsey giving North a five and a half rebounds per game. Dorsey a six foot five combo player who comes on over from oly Crossbows seven a half points per game. She's in the mid thirties. From three partings show he does a solid job. But solo at Bisi who comes over from Florida State, He's got good six succie for the Citadel. He's a little bit of an inside out player. I like what I'm seeing out of Pecks and Davidson. Davidson has been able to do a nice job facilitating after last year just couldn't get out there on the Florid for lips Coup not some sort of a dynamic score with about five and a half points per game, but play some rock solid defense. And for the Citadel, unlike the Dugg or Bocam days, they have been really playing some very slow and controlled basketball as ever since that Conray took over, they've been outside the top two fifty durns the total possessions per game. But they do have a nice go to two score. That'd be Brody Fox comes in from the non D one level. Twenty points, four and a half boards, two and half assist. Maybe isn't the world's greatest three point shore or anything like that, but know it's how to put the ball in the basket. For the Citadel, turn the ball about twelve times for contests. They shoot less than thirty percent for three, so they leave a lot to be desired there. But for Campbell, they've got Jason City who's been able to give you thirteen points five boards. He's really their lone double figure score. They shoot twenty nine percent for three now much better at the free throw line. I will give them that, but I said, what are you going to be able to get out of Selby's antileary scores like a Cam Gregor who comes on over from Saint Francis, Pennsylvania. He's been shooting about thirty two percent for three eight points per contest. It's not bad, but I do think that in the end, just getting a little bit more down low from the Citadel team going to be the difference. So I do like the Citadel outright on the money line slash as a very very slight favorite pick on what aby. I set the Citadel as a two point favorite, so want to lay up to one half there and then to make my total one thirty four. Both of these teams inside the top two fifteen in terms of total possessions per game. So in on that under and in on the Citadel on the one line six seventy one, six seventy two on the banking board, I would say to throw their facing off against Iowa Hiowa five and a half to a six a half point underdog in total on this game, you're going to be fighting it at between a one fifty nine to a one sixty and a half, and I set my total at a one to fifty eight and a half. I'm going to be taking a look at this total under I do think that with Iowa State they're just gonna be able to climb down on defense. The top twenty team terms of points a lot on a per possession basis, in Iowa, you're an in, you're out a top ten offense terms of points scored on a per possession basis at home. Fully recognize that they've gone to at least eighty points in for their last five games, but they just haven't really face the defense this season quite like Iowa State. Iowa saved a bunch of ranks in the top ten nationally in terms of turnovers force on a per possession basis, with Kashawn Gilbert a long team and Lipsby lean the way. Lipsby has saken a step back with reguards to his offense eight and a half points, four assists, two and a half seals, but shooting just twenty five percent for three after last year was pretty rocks off from the outside. But you've got Gilbert who's giving you sixteen a half points per game, and then Curtis Jovenes, a main sixth man for the team, about sixteen half points per game shooting forty percent from three points, and then Meelin Mi Mosilovich shooting fifty percent for three, twelve and a half points per contest for Iowa State, a team that they themselves, even though they generate a bunch of turnovers, they take good care of the ball. They're only turning the ball over about nine times per game. Now, I did take the points to this spot. I set my lineup four and a halfs at five plus was one to take those points with Iowa. I do think that the home court advantage one of the better ones that you're gonna find it out all of college basketball. This is an interestate rivalry and one freeman I think is going to be able to do a solid job down low against the likes of Deshaun Jackson in company of Iowa State, as he's mad able to spy the team with seventeen points, seven boards, block and after contests, you can tell how different Iowa is when he's out there on the floor versus when he's on And then you've got a nice spot of shooters, says You've got Price Samford who's shooting forty percent for three, Josh Dix Moron thirty nine percent from three to these two guys combined for twenty three and a half points per game. I think eventually you're going to see a better shooting percent job payining Sanford who shooting just thirty one a half or tent for three, but sixteen and a half points for assists. He has been rock solid as the main guy. I guess he called it along the perimeter for the side with Team A team has only turned the ball for ten and a half times per game despite playing at one of the more uptempo paces in all of college basketball. Do you think that things get a little bit more limited with regards offense? But I would say not quite the same team when they're on the road rather than at home. So I won't take five plus here With Iowa Sey total one fifty eight and a half. It's also in on the under six seventy three, six seventy four on the bank board Arkansas State. It's playing house to UT Arlington and UT Arlington is a underdog of eight to eight and a half points. Total is one fifty seven. I did say UT Arlington has an eight point dog, so at an eight and a half that it becomes my bypoint on them for you, T Arlington, this is the team that's absolutely looking to gun a top thir eight team in terms of total possessions per game, and for you, t Arlington, the big key for them just being able to take better care of the ball. They've been turned the ball over north of fourteen times for contest was really a big kryptonite of theirs last year as well. But for Arkansas State not that same three point shooting team that they wear a season ago, which is why I won't take eight and a half or more as Arkansas State shooting just thirty point one percent from three partrange. I do think that there's some upside here. You've got Terry on Ford along Joseph Pignon. These two guys are both combining for about nineteen points per contest. With Pinoni, he's been able to shoot forty percent from three part inch, but he's really the loan of their main guys other than Avery Feltz is all. He give you about four and a half points per game, shooting about thirty three and a half percent from three part inch. Kobe Julianna has come in from Louisiana, nice sat sheet suffer a steal and a half five and a half boards, twelve and a half points per game, and Taron Todd has done a nice job leading that backboard a little bit over three assists, thirteen and a half points per game as Arkansas State for their tempo twelve and a half turnoverser game, not necessarily too bad. But now they face off against the UT Arlington team that has Jayden Wells in the backcourt. He's been playing very well, being able to sply about fifteen points per game, and Arlington does a pretty solid job as a collective being able at the glass. With Lions Square coming in after missing the first five or so games of this season, he's been able to sply with this team with about fifteen points seven boards. A former top winner recruit of Kentucky Villanova, he's been just a little bit all around the block in general, and ever since he's coming to the Fold, team has been a little bit better defensively, giving up seventy points for fewer to have their last three games, though they are still playing very much up and down. Arkansas State is a team that when they were at home last year, they were top five team in terms of points scored on a purposesge basis, I do think that they're doing for a bit of positivity with their three point shooting, so did make my line eight and night and a half plus. I will take the points with Arlington and made my total one sixty. I'm in on the over six seventy five, six seventy six on the banking board. Another game they'll write up Texas they are back to playing. Goes to New Mexico State. New Mexico seed twenty to twenty and a half point underdogs, so it was between one thirty seven and one thirty eight. I'll be riding up the over. I set my total one forty five and a half. The Texas team is in the top twenty five terms points scored on a purposessed basis. Shooting is collected about thirty seven percent from three part engen with turmoon Mark now in the fold for them after he missed the first few games this season, do you think that that'll go northward? Especially gets to New Mexico State team that their lyingponus is shoe north of thirty four percent from three part range outside the top two hundred turns of points allowed on a per possession basis. Trey Johnson has been really nice for the Texas team, being able to shoot forty four percent from three twenty one points per contest, so he's been able to do a great job there. But I do think the New Mexico state holds in there on the glass. I'm gonna be willing to take the points. I do like what Arthur Kaluma has been able to provide down low eight boards, fourteen a half points, shooting in the high forties from three part range as well, and it's a Texas scene that's kept things relatively clean. They only turned the ball Ovar about nine and a half times per game. That's been a little bit of a wol for New Mexico as right now they are turned the ball over more like fourteen times per contest. But I like what you're able to get down load or Peter Philipowski, He's give you sevent rebounds per game, Robert Carpenter fourteen points, seven a half boards, and then you've got shaminga squared Emanuel shaminga Nathan shaminga combining for ten rebounds per game. Neither of these guys give you a ton offensively, but you've had Swaddy Jackson, the transfer from West Georgia, really do a nice job of being able to strike him from three part range. As he's been able to shoot thirty nine percent for three Christian Cook shoots forty percent for three guys combined for about twenty four and a half points per game. With Jackson being able to have the controls of the offense four an emphasis to just one point six cern overs per game. New Mexico Seed a nice quality win on the road a few days ago against New Mexico. Offense has been ascending, with the team seventy plus points in three of their last four games, and I think the Texas really going to be able to find their rhythm offensively as well. So I'm going to be riding up the over olvent Texas set them as a nineteen a half point favorite of twenty plus, taking those points in New Mexico seed this last game on the normal Las Vegas betting board before we hit our low. Next game six seventy seven to six seventy eight, Chattanooga is going to be on the road basic off against Evansville. The Purple Aces find themselves as about a one to a one a half point home underdog Turtles between one forty nine to one to fifty. I'm going to ride up the under You've got an Evansville team that's outside the top three turns the points scored on a purposession basis. Neither these teams really gun at either. Both of these teams are outside the top one seventy five terms of total possessions per game. And for Evansville, I just don't think that they're going to be able to hold in there against the Chattanooga team. That they're going to rupt with their offense sooner rather than later. Was collected. They're shooting twenty seven a half percent for three part range with on or off trade bottom a pair of guys that last year shot north of thirty eight percent for three part range, Cabayan shoot about twenty five and a half percent from three. Between the two of them, you've been able to get about twenty four points per game. Huff has been able to give you three and a half assist per game, but bash Wiland has actually been the top scorer for the Chattanooga Bunch, being able to spy the team with fourteen and a half points per game. Comes in for beller Man. He's been a nice, shall we say, X factor for the seam, But Chattanoogat does not generate for themselves a lot of second chances. Either you've only got one guy give you north a four and a half rebounds per game, and Sean Cussano, who's been at six foot nine it will give you about five boards, eight and a half points, good versatility as well, shooting north of forty percent from three par range. But chatt Nougat not getting those second chances. Evansville should be able to remain a little bit lively with what Tanner Cuff has given them down low seven a half points, six boards, three assists. Really nice to actual suffer and I like what t Shawn Comer out of Eastern Kentucky breaks the table a little bit over a steal eleven points per game. But to Evansville team that's right now shooting thirty percent from three partrange. Recognized the Chanouga has given up seventy five plus on the regular, but this has been an Evansville team that against the one competition they've gotten past to sixty six point plateau just twice as far this season. So writing up that under animal in a lay up to three Chattanooga, now we had our lone extra game.

The normal betting board picks are complete, but there are some extra games today, so we go into the bonus.

There's six y forty nine three or six five fifty. Bathune Cookman is on the road against Virginia, and Virginia is a favorite of fifteen point seeing fourteen a half out there as well, totals between one twenty six one twenty six a half, and I'll right up Virginia. I do think that Virginia should be able to get the job done. I am willing to lay up to eighteen with them. For Virginia, they are outside the top two hundred turns of point scored on a per possession basis, but they're also a unit that is shooting north of thirty eight percent for three point inch. As collective, they're in the top twenty five nationally with their three point shooting percentage against a Bathune Cookman team that right now, they are hovering right around about two and fiftieth with regards to upon a three point shooting percentage, that being at thirty five percent for Beethune Cookman. They bring in some really interesting pieces. Bring Freeman. He was over at Rhode Island two seasons ago where he was won of their top scores with fourteen and a half points per game to not play Division one college basketball last year, but he's been a resurface. He's been one of their top guys with sixteen and a half points, two and half assist per game. It is a Bathune Cookman team that needs to do a better job of taking care of the ball. They are turned the ball for thirteen times per contest. But I do think that they're gonna have enough pop to be able to get view pretty much what you need in terms of total I set mine at a one twenty six a half at a one twenty six or less. I'm in on the over as you do have Trey Thomas who's giving you twelve and a half points per game. But this is also a Virginia defense, and we saw last year and we're seeing it once again this year. They're giving up darn near thirty points few or per one hour possessions at home rather than on the road. Isaac McNeely has been a really good three point shoot. I have fifty percent for Virginia, thirteen and a half points, four boards, free assists. Jason Cope, as a true freshman, has been able to give you a block six rebounds per game. And this is a Bethune Cookman team hast relatively rough downlow. You do have Reggie Ward who was able to give you seven and a half rebounds per game. Was expecting a little bit more out of Daniel Roussan who comes over from Weavers say he's been able to give the team about nine points four boards for contest. But with the way that the Thune Cookman just does not guard the three point line, the way that they turn the ball over, I do think that Virginia going to be able to get the job done on their home floor. So I'm gonna be writing up Virginia laying the number and out of one twenty six or less in on the over end. That'll wrap things up for the Thursday edition of Coaches Good Sooops out part the Visa Family podcast Think thanks to Justin Perry does such amazing workover at truck while I best you joined me in last segment if you do like hearing from his fine podcast Cots Goodsoops here Able to subscribe wherever your podcast Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Spotify, sit your and tune in. If you have a question comment segment idea what I be for this podcast? You have one of two ways beil for those in first one is my Twitter slash cks Simeline at g N under forty one. Keep in mind lear cm they mean does not matter size per usual. Pleases send these into the timeline and the other ways. Find an Apple podcast review. If you rate this podcast five stars, it is very much appreciated from their airble fire or whatever you'd like you on this podcast. Try that five star view and I am coming at you guys every single day on this podcast, regular teas and an off season, so I'll be back with you once get tomorrow. Thank you,

VSiN Coast to Coast Hoops: The College Basketball Betting Podcast

Greg Peterson hosts the VSiN Coast to Coast Hoops, a podcast about college basketball betting. Greg  
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