Pushkin. Hello and welcome to Cautionary Tales. I am Tim Harford. This is one of our Cautionary Conversations episodes. We are sponsored this week by Amazon Prime, the creators of the Rings of Power. And I'm actually so excited i could pop. I'm in the studio with Alice Fin's Cautionary Tales series producer. And why am I so excited? Alis?

Pushkin. Hello and welcome to Cautionary Tales. I am Tim Harford. This is one of our Cautionary Conversations episodes. We are sponsored this week by Amazon Prime, the creators of the Rings of Power. And I'm actually so excited i could pop. I'm in the studio with Alice Fin's Cautionary Tales series producer. And why am I so excited? Alis?

You're so excited because we're about to do a massive rundown of all your favorite cautionary tales and the works of your favorite author, Tolkien.

You're so excited because we're about to do a massive rundown of all your favorite cautionary tales and the works of your favorite author, Tolkien.

Yes, we're going to talk about Gerah Tolkien. We're going to talk about the Rings of Power, and we're going to talk about cautionary tales. It's like all my birthdays and Christmas have come at the same time. I'm in case you haven't guessed, I'm an absolutely massive fan of Tolkien. I've been a massive fan of Tolkien for approximately forty five years. And I think that Tolkien is full of cautionary tales. And this new series, Rings of Power is also full of cautioning tales. So that is what we're going to talk about.

Yes, we're going to talk about Gerah Tolkien. We're going to talk about the Rings of Power, and we're going to talk about cautionary tales. It's like all my birthdays and Christmas have come at the same time. I'm in case you haven't guessed, I'm an absolutely massive fan of Tolkien. I've been a massive fan of Tolkien for approximately forty five years. And I think that Tolkien is full of cautionary tales. And this new series, Rings of Power is also full of cautioning tales. So that is what we're going to talk about.

And I am this side of the glass today as a non expert enthusiast who has also watched Rings of Power and is also very excited to speak about it. Now, if you haven't seen Rings of Power yet, there's something for everyone in the mix. It's an action story, it's a psychological thriller. It's a fantasy story. So make sure you go and watch it.

And I am this side of the glass today as a non expert enthusiast who has also watched Rings of Power and is also very excited to speak about it. Now, if you haven't seen Rings of Power yet, there's something for everyone in the mix. It's an action story, it's a psychological thriller. It's a fantasy story. So make sure you go and watch it.

My whole life has built up to this moment I've been I sense that for you this is amazing. Obviously, it's a fantasy about elves and orcs and all things Tolkien esk, and we will get into that. But it is also full of cautionary tales. It is full of the kind of ideas that we explore in caution retales. And as I was watching it, all kinds of things sprung to mind, and I imagine they sprung to your mind as well.

My whole life has built up to this moment I've been I sense that for you this is amazing. Obviously, it's a fantasy about elves and orcs and all things Tolkien esk, and we will get into that. But it is also full of cautionary tales. It is full of the kind of ideas that we explore in caution retales. And as I was watching it, all kinds of things sprung to mind, and I imagine they sprung to your mind as well.

They certainly did.

They certainly did.

Okay, so we should probably begin with a little bit of background. The Rings of Power is a prequel to the events of the Hobbit and the Lord of the Rings. It is set thousands of years before those events. Tolkien wrote enormous amounts of law, so this is a new story set thousands of years before the Lord of the Rings. We do meet some of the characters in the Lord of the Rings. For example, we meet el Rond, we meet Galadriel. They are elves, Elands, half Elven. They lived for thousands of years, so you know you can meet them as their younger selves before they became those later characters.

Okay, so we should probably begin with a little bit of background. The Rings of Power is a prequel to the events of the Hobbit and the Lord of the Rings. It is set thousands of years before those events. Tolkien wrote enormous amounts of law, so this is a new story set thousands of years before the Lord of the Rings. We do meet some of the characters in the Lord of the Rings. For example, we meet el Rond, we meet Galadriel. They are elves, Elands, half Elven. They lived for thousands of years, so you know you can meet them as their younger selves before they became those later characters.

Yes, so l Rond we know later as an elf ruler in Rivendell. Galadriel a very powerful royal Elf. They are played by Robert Rameo and Morphind Clark rather brilliantly. So Rings of Power gives us their origin stories. And it's also the origin story of the Rings of Power themselves and the One Ring, which there's quite a lot of fuss about. So tim, what is going on with those Well.

Yes, so l Rond we know later as an elf ruler in Rivendell. Galadriel a very powerful royal Elf. They are played by Robert Rameo and Morphind Clark rather brilliantly. So Rings of Power gives us their origin stories. And it's also the origin story of the Rings of Power themselves and the One Ring, which there's quite a lot of fuss about. So tim, what is going on with those Well.

A lot of fuss about. This is about the Ring and the quest to destroy the One Ring. The Rings of Power were made under the influence of the Big Baddie Saron. There were three made by and four the elves. There were seven for the dwarves. There were nine immortal men and wrought by himself the One Ring. And this is a source of ultimate evil and corruption in the Lord of the Rings. So in the Rings of Power we get to see, well, why were these things made? Who made them? And I imagine in season two, which we haven't watched yet, we're going to see a little bit more about the consequences of making them.

A lot of fuss about. This is about the Ring and the quest to destroy the One Ring. The Rings of Power were made under the influence of the Big Baddie Saron. There were three made by and four the elves. There were seven for the dwarves. There were nine immortal men and wrought by himself the One Ring. And this is a source of ultimate evil and corruption in the Lord of the Rings. So in the Rings of Power we get to see, well, why were these things made? Who made them? And I imagine in season two, which we haven't watched yet, we're going to see a little bit more about the consequences of making them.

We actually see quite a few sort of mini origin stories peppered throughout season one. So someone else we meet is an ancestor of Aragon Izildon, who actually.

We actually see quite a few sort of mini origin stories peppered throughout season one. So someone else we meet is an ancestor of Aragon Izildon, who actually.

Sorry to correct you there, Alison Aragon is actually descended from an Arian who is Isolu's brother, Thank you so, But yes, Isldure, we know, from the Lord of the Rings, famous tool who fails to destroy the One Ring when he could have destroyed the One Ring. And he's you know, a little bit of a muppet in the Rings of Power as well, isn't he.

Sorry to correct you there, Alison Aragon is actually descended from an Arian who is Isolu's brother, Thank you so, But yes, Isldure, we know, from the Lord of the Rings, famous tool who fails to destroy the One Ring when he could have destroyed the One Ring. And he's you know, a little bit of a muppet in the Rings of Power as well, isn't he.

I was about to say, if I'm honest, it's not looking good for him.

I was about to say, if I'm honest, it's not looking good for him.

No, no, but there you go. I mean, the character arc is consistent. You know, he makes mistakes. He's going to make mistakes in the future. So we're going to talk about some of the characters, and we are going to talk about the cautionary tales they bring to mind from the social science behind what happens in the Rings of Power and some of the things that occur in the Rings of Power that echo true stories that we have told in cautionary tales, I should say there are going to be some spoilers for season one. There are not going to be any sort of spoilers for season two because we haven't seen season two. It is out on the twenty ninth of August on Amazon Prime. I for one, am eagerly looking forward to it. So we should begin with one of the key protagonists, the heroine, one of the heroines of the Rings of Power, Galadriel. We see her in The Lord of the Rings. Here we see her as a child and then later as an incredibly determined pursuer of evil. I say determined, I mean maybe it's determined, Maybe it's obsessive, maybe it's irrational. Everyone else seems to think that she's completely unhinged. Saron has long since disappeared from the world, and yet Galadriel will not give up the hunt for him.

No, no, but there you go. I mean, the character arc is consistent. You know, he makes mistakes. He's going to make mistakes in the future. So we're going to talk about some of the characters, and we are going to talk about the cautionary tales they bring to mind from the social science behind what happens in the Rings of Power and some of the things that occur in the Rings of Power that echo true stories that we have told in cautionary tales, I should say there are going to be some spoilers for season one. There are not going to be any sort of spoilers for season two because we haven't seen season two. It is out on the twenty ninth of August on Amazon Prime. I for one, am eagerly looking forward to it. So we should begin with one of the key protagonists, the heroine, one of the heroines of the Rings of Power, Galadriel. We see her in The Lord of the Rings. Here we see her as a child and then later as an incredibly determined pursuer of evil. I say determined, I mean maybe it's determined, Maybe it's obsessive, maybe it's irrational. Everyone else seems to think that she's completely unhinged. Saron has long since disappeared from the world, and yet Galadriel will not give up the hunt for him.

So early on in the series covers a few centuries of Galadriel's life. We see Gladriel and her beloved brother Finrod battling Morgoth, who is a kind of evil entity demonic actually who.

So early on in the series covers a few centuries of Galadriel's life. We see Gladriel and her beloved brother Finrod battling Morgoth, who is a kind of evil entity demonic actually who.

Moth Saron's boss, so he when he was defeated, Saron took up the Baton and continued the pursuit of evil in Middle Earth.

Moth Saron's boss, so he when he was defeated, Saron took up the Baton and continued the pursuit of evil in Middle Earth.

So Galadriel vows to take up her brother's mission, and she spends centuries seeking out Sourn and this intangible evil that she believes is there, And eventually others stop rallying around the cause. She starts to seem like she might just be kind of a lone zealot. And it all comes to a head when she leads her company to this sort of snowy wasteland.

So Galadriel vows to take up her brother's mission, and she spends centuries seeking out Sourn and this intangible evil that she believes is there, And eventually others stop rallying around the cause. She starts to seem like she might just be kind of a lone zealot. And it all comes to a head when she leads her company to this sort of snowy wasteland.

It looks absolutely miserable, but because they're elves, I guess they don't die of cold.

It looks absolutely miserable, but because they're elves, I guess they don't die of cold.

Absolutely. She thinks that she is seeing signs of Salon, but others don't really believe that that's what she's seeing.

Absolutely. She thinks that she is seeing signs of Salon, but others don't really believe that that's what she's seeing.

There are signs, right, but the signs are are centuries old. So the fact that somebody wrote a sign hundreds of years ago, what does that tell you now?

There are signs, right, but the signs are are centuries old. So the fact that somebody wrote a sign hundreds of years ago, what does that tell you now?

Right exactly? The threat is not imminent. There's this brush with the snow troll. They lose faith in her, they stop following her, and when they go home, she's commended for her bravery. But it's all kind of a bit hollow.

Right exactly? The threat is not imminent. There's this brush with the snow troll. They lose faith in her, they stop following her, and when they go home, she's commended for her bravery. But it's all kind of a bit hollow.

It's very hollow. So the King of the Els, Gilgallard, rewards her with a one way trip to Valenore, which.

It's very hollow. So the King of the Els, Gilgallard, rewards her with a one way trip to Valenore, which.

Is false retirement, isn't it.

Is false retirement, isn't it.

Yeah, it's kind of elf heaven, and I mean it's supposed to be a big reward, but it doesn't feel like a reward to her. Feels like she's basically being, as you say, forcibly, retired and stripped of her duties, and it feels like a punishment to her. It becomes apparent later that Gilgalad did this deliberately. It's not just that he meant to reward her, but she didn't really view it as a reward. He wanted to take her out of the picture. Because it becomes clear that Gilgallard, the elf king, he thinks that Gladrial is actually the problem, like the fact that there is still evil in the world. There's evil in the world because Gladriuel is so obsessed with evil. There's a line that a wind that can blow out a fire can also fan the flames. One of the things that really struck me here is Galadril is treated a little bit like our whistle blowing hero in Whistleblower on the twenty eighth Floor, which is our episode about the equity finance fraud the equity finance Forward was effectively the equivalent of Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme only in the nineteen seventies. And the man who identified that this fraud was taking place and delivered the evidence of this fraud to the SEC cur it as an Exchange Commission, the US financial regulator. He was then prosecuted by the SEC, and obviously gladually is a rather more dynamic and compelling and charismatic figure than Ray Dirk's. But the way that we punish the people who are trying to alert us to danger, I think is a is a theme in certain caution detales, and very strongly a theme in the early episode ser Rings of Power.

Yeah, it's kind of elf heaven, and I mean it's supposed to be a big reward, but it doesn't feel like a reward to her. Feels like she's basically being, as you say, forcibly, retired and stripped of her duties, and it feels like a punishment to her. It becomes apparent later that Gilgalad did this deliberately. It's not just that he meant to reward her, but she didn't really view it as a reward. He wanted to take her out of the picture. Because it becomes clear that Gilgallard, the elf king, he thinks that Gladrial is actually the problem, like the fact that there is still evil in the world. There's evil in the world because Gladriuel is so obsessed with evil. There's a line that a wind that can blow out a fire can also fan the flames. One of the things that really struck me here is Galadril is treated a little bit like our whistle blowing hero in Whistleblower on the twenty eighth Floor, which is our episode about the equity finance fraud the equity finance Forward was effectively the equivalent of Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme only in the nineteen seventies. And the man who identified that this fraud was taking place and delivered the evidence of this fraud to the SEC cur it as an Exchange Commission, the US financial regulator. He was then prosecuted by the SEC, and obviously gladually is a rather more dynamic and compelling and charismatic figure than Ray Dirk's. But the way that we punish the people who are trying to alert us to danger, I think is a is a theme in certain caution detales, and very strongly a theme in the early episode ser Rings of Power.

Yes, A key takeaway in that episode, the Whistleblower on the twenty eighth Floor, is that whistleblowing is often far more trouble than it's worth. You might be shunned, it may be hard to find employment after. People don't like bad news. Essentially, you lose your friends because your friends are people from work.

Yes, A key takeaway in that episode, the Whistleblower on the twenty eighth Floor, is that whistleblowing is often far more trouble than it's worth. You might be shunned, it may be hard to find employment after. People don't like bad news. Essentially, you lose your friends because your friends are people from work.

It's difficult to survive financially and emotionally. They don't like bad news, and also they often blame the messenger, not because they don't just dislike the bad news, but because the people who are willing to defy that social pressure are often quite awkward. Whistleblower once contacted my colleagues at the Financial Times. When my journalistic colleague picked up the phone, the first line the whistleblower uttered was, my name is Tarantula. That is not my real name. You just sound mad. That's just who phone's a journalist and says my name is Tarantela. Yeah.

It's difficult to survive financially and emotionally. They don't like bad news, and also they often blame the messenger, not because they don't just dislike the bad news, but because the people who are willing to defy that social pressure are often quite awkward. Whistleblower once contacted my colleagues at the Financial Times. When my journalistic colleague picked up the phone, the first line the whistleblower uttered was, my name is Tarantula. That is not my real name. You just sound mad. That's just who phone's a journalist and says my name is Tarantela. Yeah.

You might not endear yourself to people by.

You might not endear yourself to people by.

Doing that, really not. But it turns out, actually it was a very important fraud that this person was blowing the whistle on, and Ray Dirk's was a kind of awkward character and glad Youel is in many ways extremely obnoxious in this series. She rubs people up the wrong way. She's absolutely convinced she's right. She doesn't hesitate to let other people know that she thinks they're idiots, and this turns out to be quite common behavior from whistleblowers.

Doing that, really not. But it turns out, actually it was a very important fraud that this person was blowing the whistle on, and Ray Dirk's was a kind of awkward character and glad Youel is in many ways extremely obnoxious in this series. She rubs people up the wrong way. She's absolutely convinced she's right. She doesn't hesitate to let other people know that she thinks they're idiots, and this turns out to be quite common behavior from whistleblowers.

She is right, but there are moments where you think, oh, take a day off. We talk in that episode, particularly about anti money laundering officers in banks, and there are these examples of how when you blow the whistle on a bank. You're blowing the whistle on regulatory failure. Yeah, you're blowing the whistle on everyone not doing what they're supposed to do.

She is right, but there are moments where you think, oh, take a day off. We talk in that episode, particularly about anti money laundering officers in banks, and there are these examples of how when you blow the whistle on a bank. You're blowing the whistle on regulatory failure. Yeah, you're blowing the whistle on everyone not doing what they're supposed to do.

You're telling people that they screwed up. This organization screwed up. You screwed up. And my job is to tell you that you screwed up. And it turns out that that's your job title, but your actual job is to tick some boxes, not make a fuss.

You're telling people that they screwed up. This organization screwed up. You screwed up. And my job is to tell you that you screwed up. And it turns out that that's your job title, but your actual job is to tick some boxes, not make a fuss.

Don't rock the boat. And Gladriel is absolutely rocking the boat, right. She's pointing to everyone's collective failure to vanquish evil and to stay regilant. And it's a lot easier to dismiss that lone voice that's screaming into the wind than to say, hey, maybe we do actually have a problem here.

Don't rock the boat. And Gladriel is absolutely rocking the boat, right. She's pointing to everyone's collective failure to vanquish evil and to stay regilant. And it's a lot easier to dismiss that lone voice that's screaming into the wind than to say, hey, maybe we do actually have a problem here.

Yes, I mean there is another way of seeing this. As anybody who's read The Lord of the Rings knows Saron did not disappear. Saron comes back. We know Saron comes back, and even if we haven't read The Lord of the Rings, we kind of guess that Saron is still out there, so we kind of narratively we know Gladriel's right. And so there is such a thing as as hindsight bias, and I think it's hard to avoid that as a viewer of the series. So the classic example of outcome bias is an experiment run by a couple of psychologists in nineteen eighty eight Baron and Hershey. Whether they're asking people to evaluate decisions. These might be medical decisions, for example, or they might be financial decisions, but they also explain how things worked out. So here's a doctor, this is what the doctor did, and this is in the ed what happened to the patient. And people find it completely impossible to separate the decision making process from the outcome. If you're told the outcome, you can't neutually judge the process. And here we know the outcome. We know sound's out there, so we know Gladriel's right. So I think the storytellers have to work quite hard in this series to make Gladriels seem irrational and seem unhinged.

Yes, I mean there is another way of seeing this. As anybody who's read The Lord of the Rings knows Saron did not disappear. Saron comes back. We know Saron comes back, and even if we haven't read The Lord of the Rings, we kind of guess that Saron is still out there, so we kind of narratively we know Gladriel's right. And so there is such a thing as as hindsight bias, and I think it's hard to avoid that as a viewer of the series. So the classic example of outcome bias is an experiment run by a couple of psychologists in nineteen eighty eight Baron and Hershey. Whether they're asking people to evaluate decisions. These might be medical decisions, for example, or they might be financial decisions, but they also explain how things worked out. So here's a doctor, this is what the doctor did, and this is in the ed what happened to the patient. And people find it completely impossible to separate the decision making process from the outcome. If you're told the outcome, you can't neutually judge the process. And here we know the outcome. We know sound's out there, so we know Gladriel's right. So I think the storytellers have to work quite hard in this series to make Gladriels seem irrational and seem unhinged.

When she's speaking about this intangible evil being out there, what she keeps referencing as this inner intuition, it's not really perceptible or measurable by her colleagues. They can only kind of work with what's in front of them and think about all the other things they need to balance.

When she's speaking about this intangible evil being out there, what she keeps referencing as this inner intuition, it's not really perceptible or measurable by her colleagues. They can only kind of work with what's in front of them and think about all the other things they need to balance.

Yeah, she thinks she's right. She thinks they're wrong. They think the opposite. I mean, who's to judge?

Yeah, she thinks she's right. She thinks they're wrong. They think the opposite. I mean, who's to judge?

Right?

Right?

I think there is another reading of Gladriel which is possible here, which is that she is a grieving person or a grieving elf. She takes on her brother's after he dies, She takes his dagger. She says, his vow became mine. She's grappling with her relationship with him even though he's gone, which is sort of what grieving is. There's a sense in which his death ignites this fire in her. In her words, it whips up a tempest that won't be quelled. Emotion and loss are kind of propelling her on for l ron. For people observing her, it seems like something's broken in her right. There's a sense that emotion and anger are clouding her judgment rather than helping her maybe see truths other people can't, which reminds me of this trope of the mad woman that we see kind of recur in history and in literature, a powerful woman in particular whose emotion renders them overly dramatic, overly passionate, It automatically undermines them in cautionary tails. It reminds me of Anna Marie Jarvis.

I think there is another reading of Gladriel which is possible here, which is that she is a grieving person or a grieving elf. She takes on her brother's after he dies, She takes his dagger. She says, his vow became mine. She's grappling with her relationship with him even though he's gone, which is sort of what grieving is. There's a sense in which his death ignites this fire in her. In her words, it whips up a tempest that won't be quelled. Emotion and loss are kind of propelling her on for l ron. For people observing her, it seems like something's broken in her right. There's a sense that emotion and anger are clouding her judgment rather than helping her maybe see truths other people can't, which reminds me of this trope of the mad woman that we see kind of recur in history and in literature, a powerful woman in particular whose emotion renders them overly dramatic, overly passionate, It automatically undermines them in cautionary tails. It reminds me of Anna Marie Jarvis.

Oh wow, Anamary Jarvis. That's that's a deep cut. I like that. So, yes, the inventor of Mother's Day? Or was she the inventor of Mother's Day? She certainly thought she was the inventor of Mother's Day and then was incredibly defensive of it.

Oh wow, Anamary Jarvis. That's that's a deep cut. I like that. So, yes, the inventor of Mother's Day? Or was she the inventor of Mother's Day? She certainly thought she was the inventor of Mother's Day and then was incredibly defensive of it.

Indeed, so her life's work, I mean, Anne Marie Jarvis is also a grieving woman, right, Her life's work is honoring her dad, mother, and she believes that that. Then her day, Mother's Day gets co opted by these sort of cynical interests, and she tries to take back what she has created, and she's upset. I mean, of course she's upset.

Indeed, so her life's work, I mean, Anne Marie Jarvis is also a grieving woman, right, Her life's work is honoring her dad, mother, and she believes that that. Then her day, Mother's Day gets co opted by these sort of cynical interests, and she tries to take back what she has created, and she's upset. I mean, of course she's upset.

Yeah, But she starts writing very vitriolic letters and everything is sort of painted as good and evil and sort of the noble idea of Mother's Day. And these corrupt florists, the evil florists who have you initially of course supported her.

Yeah, But she starts writing very vitriolic letters and everything is sort of painted as good and evil and sort of the noble idea of Mother's Day. And these corrupt florists, the evil florists who have you initially of course supported her.

Why don't you stop fraud against Mother's Day through misrepresentation about founder. You know, no person in your town ever gave a cent for Mother's Day, nor was its promoter. No honest person would make such a claim. Stop the deception and game.

Why don't you stop fraud against Mother's Day through misrepresentation about founder. You know, no person in your town ever gave a cent for Mother's Day, nor was its promoter. No honest person would make such a claim. Stop the deception and game.

It's a miserable story at the end.

It's a miserable story at the end.

I think it is so. She does write these letters, but it is striking to me that she starts something, or she is instrumental in starting something that is still recognized in the US today. But in the end, Time Magazine remembers her as just this old woman, a busy body, a recluse, a bit of a weirdo. And there are many, many ways. I think that Galadriel and Anna Marie Jarvis are very different, but I do think they are both judged very harshly by the societies they live in.

I think it is so. She does write these letters, but it is striking to me that she starts something, or she is instrumental in starting something that is still recognized in the US today. But in the end, Time Magazine remembers her as just this old woman, a busy body, a recluse, a bit of a weirdo. And there are many, many ways. I think that Galadriel and Anna Marie Jarvis are very different, but I do think they are both judged very harshly by the societies they live in.

Did Galadriel ever throw a Mother's Day salad on the floor.

Did Galadriel ever throw a Mother's Day salad on the floor.

I wouldn't put it past her. But they're judged for their extremes of emotion and for the fire that lights in them and the missions that gives them.

I wouldn't put it past her. But they're judged for their extremes of emotion and for the fire that lights in them and the missions that gives them.

I think Gladril is going to come out very well in the end. Well, I think we know that she is. But I think you're right.

I think Gladril is going to come out very well in the end. Well, I think we know that she is. But I think you're right.

I will say overall, in Rings of Power, women come across very well. They are very powerful, very wise, very brave.

I will say overall, in Rings of Power, women come across very well. They are very powerful, very wise, very brave.

Yes, But Gladriel, she certainly has an edge to her, so Gladriola's Radix, the equity finance whistleblower, gladriel as Anna, Marie J. Harvest, the salad hurling creator of Mother's Day. These are depths that I had not previously seen in the Rings of Power. We will plumb more depths and we will explore more parallels after the break.

Yes, But Gladriel, she certainly has an edge to her, so Gladriola's Radix, the equity finance whistleblower, gladriel as Anna, Marie J. Harvest, the salad hurling creator of Mother's Day. These are depths that I had not previously seen in the Rings of Power. We will plumb more depths and we will explore more parallels after the break.

Okay, Tim, picture the scene. You're at home in Oxford, in your living room, waging a very intriguing dungeons and Dragons campaign.

Okay, Tim, picture the scene. You're at home in Oxford, in your living room, waging a very intriguing dungeons and Dragons campaign.

Okay, it's all too easy to picture all of us the typical Tuesday.

Okay, it's all too easy to picture all of us the typical Tuesday.

Well, it's all about to change. All of a sudden, there's an almighty crash and through the floorboards appears an ork who has been undermining your house. What are you gonna do?

Well, it's all about to change. All of a sudden, there's an almighty crash and through the floorboards appears an ork who has been undermining your house. What are you gonna do?

Okay, yeah, I'm hid in the cupboard. I think would be my reaction.

Okay, yeah, I'm hid in the cupboard. I think would be my reaction.

That that's fair, because they're terrifying.

That that's fair, because they're terrifying.

They are absolutely terrifying. In the Wings of Power. We should just remind people. I'm Tim Harford, eur Alice find we are sponsored by Amazon Prime and the Rings of Power, and we're talking about parallels between the Rings of Power and cautionary tales. And yes, they are spine chilling.

They are absolutely terrifying. In the Wings of Power. We should just remind people. I'm Tim Harford, eur Alice find we are sponsored by Amazon Prime and the Rings of Power, and we're talking about parallels between the Rings of Power and cautionary tales. And yes, they are spine chilling.

Spine chilling. They spend a lot of time digging that scene I just described in fact unfolds in the show. I have to say I would back you more than most to survive the Orc Apocalypse.

Spine chilling. They spend a lot of time digging that scene I just described in fact unfolds in the show. I have to say I would back you more than most to survive the Orc Apocalypse.

Any particular reason.

Any particular reason.

Your extensive knowledge the enemy, the enemy, you know that weaknesses.

Your extensive knowledge the enemy, the enemy, you know that weaknesses.

Yes, well sunlight one of the weekness. Yeah, which which indeed the Orcs are planning to do something about that particular problem in this series. But no, there they just are unsettling. They're like something kind of a horror movie rather than an action film. Here, they're thoroughly chilling, which I think is is very welcome development in the Rings of Power. But yes, so they've got this project though, the Orcs, they have a project not just interested in butchering livestock and kidnapping people and shooting people full of arrows, although they do do plenty of that.

Yes, well sunlight one of the weekness. Yeah, which which indeed the Orcs are planning to do something about that particular problem in this series. But no, there they just are unsettling. They're like something kind of a horror movie rather than an action film. Here, they're thoroughly chilling, which I think is is very welcome development in the Rings of Power. But yes, so they've got this project though, the Orcs, they have a project not just interested in butchering livestock and kidnapping people and shooting people full of arrows, although they do do plenty of that.

That's also a hobby. Yeah, I mean, we'll come to the project. But I do have a question for you. First. Rings of Power sort of elucidates where Orcs come from. They are these twisted, tortured elves according to Gladriel. Yes, I've not totally got my head around it. There seems to be a limitless supply of them. How does this work?

That's also a hobby. Yeah, I mean, we'll come to the project. But I do have a question for you. First. Rings of Power sort of elucidates where Orcs come from. They are these twisted, tortured elves according to Gladriel. Yes, I've not totally got my head around it. There seems to be a limitless supply of them. How does this work?

Yes, well, I think orcs are quite feckened. I think orks like to get busy with other orcs, and yes, or I mean there are certain scenes where they appear to be almost manufactured. But yes, I think they are. They breed quickly as a race, and yes, Galadriel says they're twisted elves. Tolkien himself actually gave different accounts of where orcs came from. I mean, this is almost like a theological thing for him. Could the master of all evil, mor Goth? Could he create life? Or could he only twisted pervert life? And so he had different different views. But I think the view that is most popular, that's expressed in the Lord of the Rings is that Morgarth took elves and then he twisted elves in mockery and turned them into into orcs. And that was the worst thing he ever did, was to take elves and to turn them into too orcs. It was of all the evil acts he commits over thousands of years, and he gets up to all sorts of mischief, the creation of the orcs was that was the worst, the most spiteful thing he did. But anyway, wherever they came from, their their back and they are undermining, literally undermining human civilization. Serious.

Yes, well, I think orcs are quite feckened. I think orks like to get busy with other orcs, and yes, or I mean there are certain scenes where they appear to be almost manufactured. But yes, I think they are. They breed quickly as a race, and yes, Galadriel says they're twisted elves. Tolkien himself actually gave different accounts of where orcs came from. I mean, this is almost like a theological thing for him. Could the master of all evil, mor Goth? Could he create life? Or could he only twisted pervert life? And so he had different different views. But I think the view that is most popular, that's expressed in the Lord of the Rings is that Morgarth took elves and then he twisted elves in mockery and turned them into into orcs. And that was the worst thing he ever did, was to take elves and to turn them into too orcs. It was of all the evil acts he commits over thousands of years, and he gets up to all sorts of mischief, the creation of the orcs was that was the worst, the most spiteful thing he did. But anyway, wherever they came from, their their back and they are undermining, literally undermining human civilization. Serious.

This sense of them as an inversion of something is very interesting. There's something kind of corpse like about them. They're sort of bloated, rotting sun, sunken flesh almost kind of it's like they shouldn't exist, really, I suppose, which is partly what makes them terrifying.

This sense of them as an inversion of something is very interesting. There's something kind of corpse like about them. They're sort of bloated, rotting sun, sunken flesh almost kind of it's like they shouldn't exist, really, I suppose, which is partly what makes them terrifying.

Yes, and they killed, they kill things, so they kill livestock, and they chop down tree and for no obvious reason, they just destruction for destruction's sake. But in the end they do have a plan.

Yes, and they killed, they kill things, so they kill livestock, and they chop down tree and for no obvious reason, they just destruction for destruction's sake. But in the end they do have a plan.

They have a plan. We see them in prisoning elves in what seems to be a kind of prison camp. I would say, yeah, and we don't know what they're building at first. We find out later yes.

They have a plan. We see them in prisoning elves in what seems to be a kind of prison camp. I would say, yeah, and we don't know what they're building at first. We find out later yes.

Yes, but both humans and elves are being kidnapped and enslaved and put to work on this project. So the leader of the Orcs, who is this character called ad.

Yes, but both humans and elves are being kidnapped and enslaved and put to work on this project. So the leader of the Orcs, who is this character called ad.

Are played terrifyingly by Joseph Moore.

Are played terrifyingly by Joseph Moore.

He is very unsettling and we're trying to work out who he is and where he came from and what his connection is to Sarah. And that's one of the mysteries of the show, But I think you've identified him. He's a fair enoughon Brown.

He is very unsettling and we're trying to work out who he is and where he came from and what his connection is to Sarah. And that's one of the mysteries of the show, But I think you've identified him. He's a fair enoughon Brown.

Isn't Did you want to unpack that a bit?

Isn't Did you want to unpack that a bit?

Well?

Well?

As listeners to our epic V two Rocket trilogy will know, Von Brown was this not so much brilliant engineer or brilliant scientists, but brilliant coordinator of scientists, brilliant project manager who had this vision of going to the Moon and didn't really care who was hurt in seeing that vision realized. And so while it all worked out very well for him, in the end, he ended up working for NASA and making films with Disney and living the American dream. He first of all, was probably the single most important person involved in the building of the V two rocket, which is a weapon of mass destruction and targeted I mean we're not really targeted at all, but to the extent that it was even vaguely aimed, it was aimed at civilians. So you're trying to kill civilians, and they successfully did kill civilians with this rocket, and he didn't seem to care because hate he's got funding to build rockets, and he wants to build rockets, and in the end he's going to go to the Moon. And then the second thing, and this is the even closer parallel with the rings of power, the use of concentration camp labor in just the most appalling conditions, thousands and thousands and thousands of people dying Indora Middle Bow, and Von Brown basically did not seem to care. He was indifferent because he had his vision.

As listeners to our epic V two Rocket trilogy will know, Von Brown was this not so much brilliant engineer or brilliant scientists, but brilliant coordinator of scientists, brilliant project manager who had this vision of going to the Moon and didn't really care who was hurt in seeing that vision realized. And so while it all worked out very well for him, in the end, he ended up working for NASA and making films with Disney and living the American dream. He first of all, was probably the single most important person involved in the building of the V two rocket, which is a weapon of mass destruction and targeted I mean we're not really targeted at all, but to the extent that it was even vaguely aimed, it was aimed at civilians. So you're trying to kill civilians, and they successfully did kill civilians with this rocket, and he didn't seem to care because hate he's got funding to build rockets, and he wants to build rockets, and in the end he's going to go to the Moon. And then the second thing, and this is the even closer parallel with the rings of power, the use of concentration camp labor in just the most appalling conditions, thousands and thousands and thousands of people dying Indora Middle Bow, and Von Brown basically did not seem to care. He was indifferent because he had his vision.

What we discover about the massive construction project that the elves and humans are working on is that in a sense, it's all leading up to a kind of weapon of mass destruction as well. Right, they're digging all these tunnels. We don't know what it's for, but they're digging away. And eventually in the series we see a kind of would be lackey of Souron, who's longing for Souron's return, put this sort of like a sword into a landmark that triggers floods that run through the tunnels they've been digging, that trigger a kind of volcanic eruption, I suppose. And what unfolds are these horrendous fiery scenes that are reminiscent of a bomb going off.

What we discover about the massive construction project that the elves and humans are working on is that in a sense, it's all leading up to a kind of weapon of mass destruction as well. Right, they're digging all these tunnels. We don't know what it's for, but they're digging away. And eventually in the series we see a kind of would be lackey of Souron, who's longing for Souron's return, put this sort of like a sword into a landmark that triggers floods that run through the tunnels they've been digging, that trigger a kind of volcanic eruption, I suppose. And what unfolds are these horrendous fiery scenes that are reminiscent of a bomb going off.

Really yea, it is like somebody just dropped an atomic bomb on Middle Earth. That's how it reads. What has actually happened is that ad Are and his orcs and their slave labor have reactivated Mount Doom. They have taken this dormant volcano and they have reactivated it, and it explodes absolutely catastrophically, the extraordinary scenes. It's an absolute disaster.

Really yea, it is like somebody just dropped an atomic bomb on Middle Earth. That's how it reads. What has actually happened is that ad Are and his orcs and their slave labor have reactivated Mount Doom. They have taken this dormant volcano and they have reactivated it, and it explodes absolutely catastrophically, the extraordinary scenes. It's an absolute disaster.

I've always wondered where Mount Doom comes from. So this is it.

I've always wondered where Mount Doom comes from. So this is it.

This is it according to the Rings of Power Cannon, so it was originally Ora dro In as a mountain at the heart of the Southlands stroke Mordor sort of symbiotic with Saron. So when Saron is there in Mordoor and powerful Ora dro In is active, and when Saron is dormant, oro In is dormant. When in the Rings of Power, it's a very deliberate plan by add Are. He causes this massive steam explosion and that causes in Mount Doom to erupt. And we know, having read Lord of the Rings, that in the end Mount Doom will be where Saron's powerful Ring. You know, the ultimate, the one Ring is going to be forged in Mount Doom and it can only be destroyed in Mount Doom. So, as well as being this cataclysmic event, as far as the Wings of Power are concerned, we also know that this is paving the way for the return of Sarah, and it's going to pave the way for the creation of the evil.

This is it according to the Rings of Power Cannon, so it was originally Ora dro In as a mountain at the heart of the Southlands stroke Mordor sort of symbiotic with Saron. So when Saron is there in Mordoor and powerful Ora dro In is active, and when Saron is dormant, oro In is dormant. When in the Rings of Power, it's a very deliberate plan by add Are. He causes this massive steam explosion and that causes in Mount Doom to erupt. And we know, having read Lord of the Rings, that in the end Mount Doom will be where Saron's powerful Ring. You know, the ultimate, the one Ring is going to be forged in Mount Doom and it can only be destroyed in Mount Doom. So, as well as being this cataclysmic event, as far as the Wings of Power are concerned, we also know that this is paving the way for the return of Sarah, and it's going to pave the way for the creation of the evil.

That is the one ring, which brings me to another thought, which is that there are very big questions in this series about what evil is, where it can be found, how do we deal with it? Is it something you choose? Is it an act of self determination? Is it something you inherit? For example, the Southlanders early on, they're not to be trusted because in their veins flows the blood of their ancestors who allied themselves with More Goth.

That is the one ring, which brings me to another thought, which is that there are very big questions in this series about what evil is, where it can be found, how do we deal with it? Is it something you choose? Is it an act of self determination? Is it something you inherit? For example, the Southlanders early on, they're not to be trusted because in their veins flows the blood of their ancestors who allied themselves with More Goth.

Right, Yes, which is very deterministic, right as a sort of you know, it's racial determinism. Absolutely, they are the descendants of people who serve More Goth and therefore you can't trust them.

Right, Yes, which is very deterministic, right as a sort of you know, it's racial determinism. Absolutely, they are the descendants of people who serve More Goth and therefore you can't trust them.

It's this concept of evil is something primitive within us, I suppose, But also evil maybe something you choose or deny.

It's this concept of evil is something primitive within us, I suppose, But also evil maybe something you choose or deny.

But yes, there is this sense. A lot of the people that we see have had their choices predetermined. I mean, add are the leader of the Orcs. Interestingly, he argues that they have free will and they need to be viewed as individuals with names and soone that's one of the reasons why they love him. But I think in the in the universe of Tolkien, the Orcs are irredeemably evil and the elves are inherently good. But one of the really interesting questions is, well, where does that leave the humans? And the humans are have moral agency, the humans get to choose. The humans have to choose, and some of them choose well, and some of them choose very badly.

But yes, there is this sense. A lot of the people that we see have had their choices predetermined. I mean, add are the leader of the Orcs. Interestingly, he argues that they have free will and they need to be viewed as individuals with names and soone that's one of the reasons why they love him. But I think in the in the universe of Tolkien, the Orcs are irredeemably evil and the elves are inherently good. But one of the really interesting questions is, well, where does that leave the humans? And the humans are have moral agency, the humans get to choose. The humans have to choose, and some of them choose well, and some of them choose very badly.

I did have another thought actually, as I was traveling here, Ada is in fact mistaken for Sarin at some point. He doesn't take that well. But that points to another issue with evil, right.

I did have another thought actually, as I was traveling here, Ada is in fact mistaken for Sarin at some point. He doesn't take that well. But that points to another issue with evil, right.

Well, absolutely so Ada looks very unsettling. He's this scarred or corrupted elf. He's coded as a bad guy, and he's a bad guy, you know, he he does all kinds of terrible things. The Orcs look horrendous. We know the Orcs are evil, and the elves look beautiful and do good things. So there is in Tolkien's universe, and in the universe of the Rings of Power, there is this association of people who look beautiful also being morally beautiful. And you know, evil is worn on the surface, so evil creatures look evil. Except it's not always like that it's not always like that in Tolkien, and it's not always like that in the Rings of Power, and.

Well, absolutely so Ada looks very unsettling. He's this scarred or corrupted elf. He's coded as a bad guy, and he's a bad guy, you know, he he does all kinds of terrible things. The Orcs look horrendous. We know the Orcs are evil, and the elves look beautiful and do good things. So there is in Tolkien's universe, and in the universe of the Rings of Power, there is this association of people who look beautiful also being morally beautiful. And you know, evil is worn on the surface, so evil creatures look evil. Except it's not always like that it's not always like that in Tolkien, and it's not always like that in the Rings of Power, and.

It's not always like that in real life, I think either.

It's not always like that in real life, I think either.

I certainly agree that it's not always like that in real life. The favorite themes of cautionary tales, which we come to again and again is the deceiver, the plausible deceiver. So going right back to one of our very first cautionary tales, the Rogue dressed as a captain, where this impoverished shoemaker and a petty criminal Wilhelm Vot got hold of a second hand army captain's uniform. This is in the early nineteen hundreds in Berlin, and just started bossing around a platoon of soldiers he found on the street, and you know, he's wearing a captain's uniform, and so they do what he says because he looks the part. And it's funny, but it's also it's quite dark, because we know we understand where this unconditional obedience to people in uniform later goes. And then of course there's Harold Shipman, who's this kindly trusted community doctor who is one of the worst serial killers ever in human history anywhere in the world and he you know, he doesn't look like a serial killer. He looks like the person who's going to take care of your grandmother. So you would think that's not part of the way that Tolkien views things, that's not part of the way that The Rings of Power portrays the world. But then you realize, oh no, there are people in this universe who are not what they seem. And one of the pleasures of watching this season is trying to figure out who looks good and is actually good and who's hard to place. And I would say, I think, and we said they'd be spoilers for the season one, and I don't want to spoil this. We know Sarahon's coming back. I think there are four people, at least four people in the Rings of Power who who plausibly contenders contenders for being Sarah. And one of the pleasures is to try to figure out who it actually is or maybe it's maybe it's none of those four, but yes, none of them well, with the exception of ad Are. They don't look like Saron, they don't code as Saron. What you're trying to see through is, okay, the Orcs look evil, Ada looks evil. Mount doom looks evil, that sword looks evil, but Saron himself is the great deceiver, and he looks exactly how he chooses to look. And that is one of the big challenges.

I certainly agree that it's not always like that in real life. The favorite themes of cautionary tales, which we come to again and again is the deceiver, the plausible deceiver. So going right back to one of our very first cautionary tales, the Rogue dressed as a captain, where this impoverished shoemaker and a petty criminal Wilhelm Vot got hold of a second hand army captain's uniform. This is in the early nineteen hundreds in Berlin, and just started bossing around a platoon of soldiers he found on the street, and you know, he's wearing a captain's uniform, and so they do what he says because he looks the part. And it's funny, but it's also it's quite dark, because we know we understand where this unconditional obedience to people in uniform later goes. And then of course there's Harold Shipman, who's this kindly trusted community doctor who is one of the worst serial killers ever in human history anywhere in the world and he you know, he doesn't look like a serial killer. He looks like the person who's going to take care of your grandmother. So you would think that's not part of the way that Tolkien views things, that's not part of the way that The Rings of Power portrays the world. But then you realize, oh no, there are people in this universe who are not what they seem. And one of the pleasures of watching this season is trying to figure out who looks good and is actually good and who's hard to place. And I would say, I think, and we said they'd be spoilers for the season one, and I don't want to spoil this. We know Sarahon's coming back. I think there are four people, at least four people in the Rings of Power who who plausibly contenders contenders for being Sarah. And one of the pleasures is to try to figure out who it actually is or maybe it's maybe it's none of those four, but yes, none of them well, with the exception of ad Are. They don't look like Saron, they don't code as Saron. What you're trying to see through is, okay, the Orcs look evil, Ada looks evil. Mount doom looks evil, that sword looks evil, but Saron himself is the great deceiver, and he looks exactly how he chooses to look. And that is one of the big challenges.

Now that you mentioned catching a Killer doctor. Our episode about Harold Shipman, I am reminded of Karnaman and Teverski's representativeness heuristic and this idea that certain things kind of fit into our pre established frameworks. Yeah, and we may not question.

Now that you mentioned catching a Killer doctor. Our episode about Harold Shipman, I am reminded of Karnaman and Teverski's representativeness heuristic and this idea that certain things kind of fit into our pre established frameworks. Yeah, and we may not question.

Them, basically, absolutely not, absolutely so. So Shipman just fitted into the kindly doctor shaped box that we have in our heads. We've got this kind of stereotype of the community doctor who goes door to door and is always taken care of his patients and nothing's too much trouble. And he just fit perfectly into that box, just so.

Them, basically, absolutely not, absolutely so. So Shipman just fitted into the kindly doctor shaped box that we have in our heads. We've got this kind of stereotype of the community doctor who goes door to door and is always taken care of his patients and nothing's too much trouble. And he just fit perfectly into that box, just so.

Much so that some people were actually thrilled that he was coming to comfort their aged relatives. Yes, and the dying hours.

Much so that some people were actually thrilled that he was coming to comfort their aged relatives. Yes, and the dying hours.

Absolutely, but how how kind that he would he would call on them where when no one else was around in the middle of the day, and and oh and then they died, And how wonderful it was that Shipman, of all people, their doctor was there in that moment to comfort them. And to be present they didn't die alone. Of course was a reason they didn't die alone, which because he murdered them and watched them die for reasons that are still still unclear and I think will never become clear. But yes, that representativeness heuristic is very, very powerful. We should take a break, and I think we are going to talk about one five theme in Tolkien and how that is reflected in some of my some of my favorite ideas from cautionary tales. We'll do that after the break. We're back. I'm Tim Harford. I'm here in the studio with producer Alice Fines. We are being sponsored this week by Amazon Primes series The Rings of Power, and we're having a cautionary conversation about what cautionary tales spring to mind when you watch this epic series set in Tolkien's Middle Earth. Alice, what sprung to your mind?

Absolutely, but how how kind that he would he would call on them where when no one else was around in the middle of the day, and and oh and then they died, And how wonderful it was that Shipman, of all people, their doctor was there in that moment to comfort them. And to be present they didn't die alone. Of course was a reason they didn't die alone, which because he murdered them and watched them die for reasons that are still still unclear and I think will never become clear. But yes, that representativeness heuristic is very, very powerful. We should take a break, and I think we are going to talk about one five theme in Tolkien and how that is reflected in some of my some of my favorite ideas from cautionary tales. We'll do that after the break. We're back. I'm Tim Harford. I'm here in the studio with producer Alice Fines. We are being sponsored this week by Amazon Primes series The Rings of Power, and we're having a cautionary conversation about what cautionary tales spring to mind when you watch this epic series set in Tolkien's Middle Earth. Alice, what sprung to your mind?

This isn't strictly a cautionary tale, but something we see throughout the series is this idea that evil is somehow contagious, so by touching darkness you will be changed. That happens to Gladriel. There's kind of a sense in which she's changed in wheys she can't quite convey to others, and in that sense, knowing evil cuts you off from other people. So she says, you have not seen what I've seen, and she knows others believe evil infects you as well. So you mentioned earlier this idea of the same winds that seek to blow out a fire may also cause it spread. Which is an interesting problem, yes, because it raises a very practical issue, which is how do you deal with evil? You know, it's not a single cautionary tail, but many of our cautionary tales look at cruelty and look at where cruelty comes from, and also how do we respond to it?

This isn't strictly a cautionary tale, but something we see throughout the series is this idea that evil is somehow contagious, so by touching darkness you will be changed. That happens to Gladriel. There's kind of a sense in which she's changed in wheys she can't quite convey to others, and in that sense, knowing evil cuts you off from other people. So she says, you have not seen what I've seen, and she knows others believe evil infects you as well. So you mentioned earlier this idea of the same winds that seek to blow out a fire may also cause it spread. Which is an interesting problem, yes, because it raises a very practical issue, which is how do you deal with evil? You know, it's not a single cautionary tail, but many of our cautionary tales look at cruelty and look at where cruelty comes from, and also how do we respond to it?

Yes, and how the elves want to respond to it is to bury their heads in the sand. They are very keen at the beginning of this season to conclude that makes it evil has been permanently banished, Saren has gone forever. Gladual is a problem because Gladiel keeps insisting that evil has not been vanquished and Saren has not gone, And in the end she gets blamed not just from causing a fuss, but maybe she is the source of evil in making such a.

Yes, and how the elves want to respond to it is to bury their heads in the sand. They are very keen at the beginning of this season to conclude that makes it evil has been permanently banished, Saren has gone forever. Gladual is a problem because Gladiel keeps insisting that evil has not been vanquished and Saren has not gone, And in the end she gets blamed not just from causing a fuss, but maybe she is the source of evil in making such a.

Fuss to somehow perpetuating it.

Fuss to somehow perpetuating it.

Absolutely, absolutely because of the anger that lives inside her this denial. It reminded me of a couple of Caution Tales episodes. So one fairly recent episode, How Britain Ignored the Mother of All Secrets, which was this extraordinary story about how during the Second World War and the British were told in some detail by an incredible piece of espionade brave intelligence leak. They were told that the Germans had defensive radar and therefore if the British flew sorties over Germany, the Germans would see them coming and would shoot them down as a very very important piece of information, and they just would not believe. They see photographs of the radar equipment. But they're even told before the war. They're told by a German officer. He's on a kind of like a I don't know, it's like a student exchange kind of thing. He shows up because they were how are you chaps getting on with radar? We know you are making progress and we're making progress too. In fact, we think we're ahead of you, and that that astonishing conversational tipbit just gets lost. So there's a there's a huge amount of wish for thinking, I think because the British want to believe that the Germans don't have this technology. They want to believe they're superior. They want to believe that their technology is superior, and they want to believe that this it would be bad if the Germans had this, so they don't want to believe it's true. And that denial continues for well over a year after they should have realized. And yeah, and the Elves are in the same denial. They always wanting to rationalize the way indications that Sarahn maybe has returned.

Absolutely, absolutely because of the anger that lives inside her this denial. It reminded me of a couple of Caution Tales episodes. So one fairly recent episode, How Britain Ignored the Mother of All Secrets, which was this extraordinary story about how during the Second World War and the British were told in some detail by an incredible piece of espionade brave intelligence leak. They were told that the Germans had defensive radar and therefore if the British flew sorties over Germany, the Germans would see them coming and would shoot them down as a very very important piece of information, and they just would not believe. They see photographs of the radar equipment. But they're even told before the war. They're told by a German officer. He's on a kind of like a I don't know, it's like a student exchange kind of thing. He shows up because they were how are you chaps getting on with radar? We know you are making progress and we're making progress too. In fact, we think we're ahead of you, and that that astonishing conversational tipbit just gets lost. So there's a there's a huge amount of wish for thinking, I think because the British want to believe that the Germans don't have this technology. They want to believe they're superior. They want to believe that their technology is superior, and they want to believe that this it would be bad if the Germans had this, so they don't want to believe it's true. And that denial continues for well over a year after they should have realized. And yeah, and the Elves are in the same denial. They always wanting to rationalize the way indications that Sarahn maybe has returned.

So, however, we're going to confront evil. It seems that acknowledging it's there is the first step.

So, however, we're going to confront evil. It seems that acknowledging it's there is the first step.

I think very very important, really helpful to know what you're facing. And that, I mean, there's another example of this, and this maybe gives you more sympathy for the for the elf King's position, which is our pandemic episode that turned to Pascagoula, which is all about deer asters that are predictable and predicted. So we compare and contrast the spread of COVID with Hurricane Katrina. Everyone knew that New Orleans was vulnerable. Hurricanes would come over from time to time, just a matter of time. People knew there were weaknesses and levees. Over and over again, people were told something bad could happen, and they just didn't want to believe it because the costs of preparedness were so great And in fact, in the Rings of Power, we see that the elves have been prepared for centuries. They have standing garrisons looking over the humans in case the bad guys come back, and ironically they abandoned them just before they're needed. But the fact that those garrisons are there and there's a real cost to maintaining them, there's a cost to being prepared, and so you have some sympathy with people who go, you know what, maybe this is just a waste of money. Maybe this bad thing is never going to happen.

I think very very important, really helpful to know what you're facing. And that, I mean, there's another example of this, and this maybe gives you more sympathy for the for the elf King's position, which is our pandemic episode that turned to Pascagoula, which is all about deer asters that are predictable and predicted. So we compare and contrast the spread of COVID with Hurricane Katrina. Everyone knew that New Orleans was vulnerable. Hurricanes would come over from time to time, just a matter of time. People knew there were weaknesses and levees. Over and over again, people were told something bad could happen, and they just didn't want to believe it because the costs of preparedness were so great And in fact, in the Rings of Power, we see that the elves have been prepared for centuries. They have standing garrisons looking over the humans in case the bad guys come back, and ironically they abandoned them just before they're needed. But the fact that those garrisons are there and there's a real cost to maintaining them, there's a cost to being prepared, and so you have some sympathy with people who go, you know what, maybe this is just a waste of money. Maybe this bad thing is never going to happen.

And then, as we've discussed, sometimes evil is hiding in plain sight and is unpredictable. Yeah, it's not something we can totally prepare for.

And then, as we've discussed, sometimes evil is hiding in plain sight and is unpredictable. Yeah, it's not something we can totally prepare for.

No, absolutely. So you know that pandemics are a risk, but you don't know what kind of pandemic, and you don't know when you know that hurricanes are a risk, or earthquakes, but you don't know when you know there are some places they might strike in some places they are unlikely to. And then of course there are things that we just didn't see coming at all. So some of the genocides that the world has suffered since the end of the Second World War, some of them have become in from us. Some of them, I think are barely acknowledged, very hard to see any of them coming in advance.

No, absolutely. So you know that pandemics are a risk, but you don't know what kind of pandemic, and you don't know when you know that hurricanes are a risk, or earthquakes, but you don't know when you know there are some places they might strike in some places they are unlikely to. And then of course there are things that we just didn't see coming at all. So some of the genocides that the world has suffered since the end of the Second World War, some of them have become in from us. Some of them, I think are barely acknowledged, very hard to see any of them coming in advance.

So what about you, Tim what's brings to mind for you? In Rings of Power?

So what about you, Tim what's brings to mind for you? In Rings of Power?

I think a really important theme in this series and in Tolkien in general, is the idea that power corrupts. So there's this sword that is a corrupting influence. The rings are, of course a corrupting influence. The plantity, these seeing stones are a rupting influence, and it's always tempting to use them. So the elves attempted to use the rings, the humans attempted to use the sword. The Newminorians are a human civilization, very high human civilization. They have a polante here. They want to look at the polant here and use it to see the future, use it to see things far off. And everybody is always convincing themselves that it'll be for the best, that I won't lose control of these things. And yeah, I'm a good person, and I'm going to use this for good ends and with good intentions, and therefore good will result, and good does not result. Over and over again. In Tolkien, evil results. The inherent power of the object corrupts the user. And this really reminded me of a cautioning tale that I have not yet written, but I will write because I think it's an amazing story. And that is the tale of Herman Holloweth.

I think a really important theme in this series and in Tolkien in general, is the idea that power corrupts. So there's this sword that is a corrupting influence. The rings are, of course a corrupting influence. The plantity, these seeing stones are a rupting influence, and it's always tempting to use them. So the elves attempted to use the rings, the humans attempted to use the sword. The Newminorians are a human civilization, very high human civilization. They have a polante here. They want to look at the polant here and use it to see the future, use it to see things far off. And everybody is always convincing themselves that it'll be for the best, that I won't lose control of these things. And yeah, I'm a good person, and I'm going to use this for good ends and with good intentions, and therefore good will result, and good does not result. Over and over again. In Tolkien, evil results. The inherent power of the object corrupts the user. And this really reminded me of a cautioning tale that I have not yet written, but I will write because I think it's an amazing story. And that is the tale of Herman Holloweth.

Herman Holloweth, I know nothing about Herman Holloweth, Please tell me.

Herman Holloweth, I know nothing about Herman Holloweth, Please tell me.

Herman Hollowith was an engineer American engineer late eighteen hundreds who designed the machine that became known for obviously since as the hollow Earth Machine, and the hollow Earth Machine was a kind of proto computer. He was trying to solve the problem for the US Census, which is that you have the census every ten years, and then you go and you ask loads of loads of households who ask every household in the country lots of questions, and then you need to kind of organize all the answers and analyze the answers. And it was taking seven or eight years to put together the analysis of the answers. By the time the eighteen ninety census was being conducted, they still would not have finished analyzing the eighteen eighty census, the previous census.

Herman Hollowith was an engineer American engineer late eighteen hundreds who designed the machine that became known for obviously since as the hollow Earth Machine, and the hollow Earth Machine was a kind of proto computer. He was trying to solve the problem for the US Census, which is that you have the census every ten years, and then you go and you ask loads of loads of households who ask every household in the country lots of questions, and then you need to kind of organize all the answers and analyze the answers. And it was taking seven or eight years to put together the analysis of the answers. By the time the eighteen ninety census was being conducted, they still would not have finished analyzing the eighteen eighty census, the previous census.

So I'm going to guess Holloth is about to make this process much more efficient.

So I'm going to guess Holloth is about to make this process much more efficient.

There's a race. There is a race between man and machine, and there are various human teams the Census say, look, we're going to have a competition. Somebody needs to figure out how to analyze the census results more quickly. Because they are also asking more complicated questions, so they're being more and more ambitious. It gets more and more difficult, and so there are various human teams involving you know, colored cards and various systems and all kinds of clever kind of organizational devices. But it's all a bit philo faxy. And then there's Holloweth's machine. And Hollowth's machine looks like it looks like an upright piano, and it operates using punch cards. So you've got these stiff cards with holes in them, and the machine has these spring loaded pins that dip into little cups of mercury. And so you put the punch card in and the pins come down and those that hit a hole go through the hole and into the cup of mercury, and they complete a circuit and those that don't hit a hole are stopped by the stiff cardboard. And that's fundamentally how the machine worked. And the operator of the machine was like, this is like the voice of God producing this amazing insight. Clearly was just high on mercury fumes. But the Hollowth machine just destroyed the human teams. It wasn't even close. And so the Census Bureau adopted the Hollowth machine and they all live happily ever after.

There's a race. There is a race between man and machine, and there are various human teams the Census say, look, we're going to have a competition. Somebody needs to figure out how to analyze the census results more quickly. Because they are also asking more complicated questions, so they're being more and more ambitious. It gets more and more difficult, and so there are various human teams involving you know, colored cards and various systems and all kinds of clever kind of organizational devices. But it's all a bit philo faxy. And then there's Holloweth's machine. And Hollowth's machine looks like it looks like an upright piano, and it operates using punch cards. So you've got these stiff cards with holes in them, and the machine has these spring loaded pins that dip into little cups of mercury. And so you put the punch card in and the pins come down and those that hit a hole go through the hole and into the cup of mercury, and they complete a circuit and those that don't hit a hole are stopped by the stiff cardboard. And that's fundamentally how the machine worked. And the operator of the machine was like, this is like the voice of God producing this amazing insight. Clearly was just high on mercury fumes. But the Hollowth machine just destroyed the human teams. It wasn't even close. And so the Census Bureau adopted the Hollowth machine and they all live happily ever after.

That sounds like a cautionary tail.

That sounds like a cautionary tail.

Yes, Because Hollerith retired, his company turned into IBM, and well, a couple of things happened. One thing is that IBM Germany became quite close with the Nazi regime, who were very interested in buying Holloweth machines.

Yes, Because Hollerith retired, his company turned into IBM, and well, a couple of things happened. One thing is that IBM Germany became quite close with the Nazi regime, who were very interested in buying Holloweth machines.

I see where this is going.

I see where this is going.

Well, it is disputed exactly how important the machine was to the Nazi project of genocide, and were perfectly capable of murdering enormous quantities of people without a machine to count them. But I mean, the German Census Bureau was utterly co opted by the Nazi state and they were very, very interested in trying to identify who was Jewish who was not, and so having these machines be so powerful it kind of.

Well, it is disputed exactly how important the machine was to the Nazi project of genocide, and were perfectly capable of murdering enormous quantities of people without a machine to count them. But I mean, the German Census Bureau was utterly co opted by the Nazi state and they were very, very interested in trying to identify who was Jewish who was not, and so having these machines be so powerful it kind of.

Helped, may have expedited the process.

Helped, may have expedited the process.

It may have expedited the process. And also the US Census Bureau for decades denied that it had helped the administration find US citizens of Japanese descent for decades and decades and decades, said, we know the Census Bureau is stands alone and is separate, and is independent and does not do this kind of thing. We're just here to count the people. And then in two thousand and six Margo Anderson, historian found the smoking gun that in fact, the Census Bureau had told the Roosevelt administration exactly where all the Japanese Americans were living, and they were all of course chipped off to interment camps. So again, you see this machine. It's very powerful machine, designed for good, supposed to be used for good. But then once you have that power, are you really going to resist the temptation.

It may have expedited the process. And also the US Census Bureau for decades denied that it had helped the administration find US citizens of Japanese descent for decades and decades and decades, said, we know the Census Bureau is stands alone and is separate, and is independent and does not do this kind of thing. We're just here to count the people. And then in two thousand and six Margo Anderson, historian found the smoking gun that in fact, the Census Bureau had told the Roosevelt administration exactly where all the Japanese Americans were living, and they were all of course chipped off to interment camps. So again, you see this machine. It's very powerful machine, designed for good, supposed to be used for good. But then once you have that power, are you really going to resist the temptation.

Here's the thing, though, you can't always tell what's going to happen to an invention. I'm thinking of our episode the hero who wrote his segue off a cliff Jimmy Hesselden invents the Hesko gabions, these concert tinas for shoring up coastlines to manage flood risks. Ultimately, they're used in places like Kosovo and Iraq filled with sand to protect people from bomb blast. Now you could argue that they are co opted as instruments of war, I suppose, But you can't tell how an invention will travel once you invent it. Maybe it can also do good, yeah, yeah, no, not just evil. So what's the answer.

Here's the thing, though, you can't always tell what's going to happen to an invention. I'm thinking of our episode the hero who wrote his segue off a cliff Jimmy Hesselden invents the Hesko gabions, these concert tinas for shoring up coastlines to manage flood risks. Ultimately, they're used in places like Kosovo and Iraq filled with sand to protect people from bomb blast. Now you could argue that they are co opted as instruments of war, I suppose, But you can't tell how an invention will travel once you invent it. Maybe it can also do good, yeah, yeah, no, not just evil. So what's the answer.

Well, I think the answer for Tolkien. Tolkien was quite conservative in his writings, and I think the answer for Tolkien is that you shouldn't take the risk. And in general, technology is shown as being not a progressive force. It's a potentially destructive force. So whenever you have new technology, it could potentially be used for evil, and therefore people will be tempted to use it for evil, and most people are not strong enough to resist that temptation. There are a couple of exceptions, but they're very, very minor exceptions. They're the exceptions that I think serve to highlight the rule in Tolkien. There's another interesting parallel along these lines. I mean, Tolkien strongly rejected the idea that Lord of the Rings was an allegory. He hated the idea that the Wandering, for example, was really the atomic bomb. He once wrote, if Order the Things was an allegory, that the Elves would have used the Wandering immediately, which, of course I guess is true, because the Allies use the atomic bomb.