Lisette IJssel de Schepper, Chief Economist at the Bureau for Economic Research, speaks to Lester Kiewit about whether South Africa can withstand mounting global economic headwinds following escalating tensions in the Middle East. She outlines how the immediate impact is already being felt through a weaker rand, rising oil and fuel prices, and increasing inflationary pressure, but stresses that the real risk lies in how long the disruption persists. IJssel de Schepper explains the BER’s three scenarios, from a short-lived shock to a more severe and prolonged crisis that could stall growth and delay or even halt interest rate cuts. While local indicators like GDP growth and business confidence have shown modest improvement, she notes that underlying demand remains weak, pointing to a fragile recovery. The conversation highlights that South Africa’s biggest vulnerability is not just external shocks, but long-standing domestic constraints, including infrastructure challenges and policy uncertainty, which limit the country’s ability to absorb global volatility.

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