After yesterday’s half-year fiscal update from the Government, the canary in the mine is gasping for air and the elephant in the room is walking all over everything.

And economist Cameron Bagrie is saying that we can’t ignore either of them - particularly in relation to the long-term outlook and what it means for superannuation and retirement planning.

He says, with Government debt forecast to blow-out long-term, we need to accept the fact that the universal pension scheme is unsustainable. 

Government debt is forecast to increase to 180 percent of GDP in 30 to 40 years because of the ageing population and Cameron Bagrie says if we think tinkering around the edges with KiwiSaver is the solution, then we’re dreaming.

And I couldn’t agree more.

He says a conversation about the sustainability of superannuation can’t be avoided forever. I  would disagree with him slightly on that one. I think that conversation about the sustainability of our NZ Super scheme needs to happen now.

My view on NZ Super is that it’s crazy people who work beyond 65 get the pension. Even though it’s taxed at a higher rate - I get that. But I still think it’s wrong.

I've also been a fan of some form of means testing.

But, if I’m honest, do I really think the scale of the problem we’ve got - especially long-term - would be sorted out by not paying the pension to people who continue to work beyond 65 and means testing people before they get the pension?

Probably not.

So, if we’re really going to think long-term, I reckon we need to make the call that people of a certain age are told that the NZ Super pension won’t be available to them by the time they reach retirement age.

This would have to be long-term. So, for arguments sake, let’s say we told people who are 35 and younger that they will have to provide for themselves completely when they retire.

That would give them at least 30 years to get themselves sorted. In fact, I would say that people in this age group probably assume now anyway that they won’t be getting a government pension by the time they reach retirement age.

So what I’m talking about is a very gradual phase-out of the government pension.

I’m in no doubt that something like this is needed. Because we are dreaming if we think we can keep doing what we’re doing.

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