Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar11/4/24: Shock Iowa Poll, Megyn Kelly Confronts MT Senate Candidate, Closing 2024 Ads, Did MSG Rally Screw Trump
Krystal and Saagar discuss Shock Iowa poll has Kamala up, Megyn Kelly confronts MT Senator on gunshot claim, closing 2024 ads, did Trump MSG rally screw Trump.
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Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal.
Here we go one day until election day, so we got a big electorally focused show for you. Logan's going to be here talking about whether the state of Iowa. Yes, that's right, Iowa is in play. Ann Selzer shocked the world with her pole drop this weekend, so we'll get into that. Campaigns are also out with their closing ads, so we'll take a look at how they are making their final case to voters. Also, Little Epstein, Little Epstein info some audio tapes released where he talks about how he was Donald Trump's best friend from tenure for ten years, so we'll dig into the relevance of that.
Also asking the question if Trump October.
Surprised himself with that Medicine Square Garden rally. New York Times is declaring the end of identity politics, but they write about that, and of course Sager and I with the big reveal of our maps making the case for why we think the election is going the way that we think it's going to go. So break down the data reveal both of our maps. We have them going in two different directions, so that should be interesting.
Yeah, it'll be fun.
We've got our whole thought process laid out, you know, not to brag or anything, just called every state in the electoral college last.
Yeah, you nailed the lot I got.
Look extremely lucky. I have much lower confidence in this map this time around. But that's why it's fun, right, That's why it's fun to do. As a reminder, thank you to all of our premium subscribers, and if you're not, you're going to want to sign up. At Breakingpoints dot com, we've got exclusive major coverage that's going to be going on from basically now until whenever the election is called. So for context, we've got the show today that's going to include our election previews, like our predictions tomorrow morning. We'll have an update for everybody that will drop sometime. Yeah, we'll we're recorded in the morning, they'll drop beforehand.
Yeah.
Then Ryan and Emily are going to join us today.
That's right.
Ryan and Emily will be there, and then all four of us will be here at the desk, including with logan and with Decision Desk HQ software. We're really excited about that because it means we're gonna have full on, you know, basically network style coverage. We have live returns, we can throw to the maps. They're all to be dynamic. We can make calls here at breaking points for when specific races will happen. We'll have literally up to the minute coverage, just like any of the other major networks, so there's no need to go watch anything else. Can we put that beautiful graphic please up on the screen. That's right, Look at six thirty pm Eastern Standard time. It's great to be back on standard time. I just have to put that out there, six thirty pm Eastern time. You can go ahead, you can set your clocks, you can watch it on TV.
It'll be on live on YouTube.
We'll also be taking questions intermittently throughout the night from our local stream, which again is for our premium subscriber, So if you want to participate in that at Breakingpoints dot Com, you can go ahead and sign up. But all of this is just a second to potheosis of our premium subscribers. Our remember the very first time that we ever did any live election coverage on Rising this. I guess we must have been twenty nineteen for some of those coverage, and people put it on in bars, people in their living room. The number one complaint was always, Hey, we don't have any live like coverage. You don't have a Kernaky style figure, you don't have data and all that, because we had to use others. And so we've worked very very hard to assemble like as big coverage as possibly can. So we've got everything that we need over here. You don't need to go anywhere else except right here for.
I have election coverage. Yeah, it's gonna be it's gonna be fun. Yeah, fun. You can't be excited.
It's gotta know how election very great flues, right, although even I have to say that, I mean, it's not necessarily that we're really going to know how the story concludes tomorrow.
Yeah, I mean, it could go on, right, and let's the other thing. Let's not sell it like you know, tomorrow night we may not know, we're not. We're going to go late, you know, if we need to as late as possible, and then the next morning and we'll wake up and we'll do it all over again. So it is election week, and every single day that this continues, we will have chair on breaking points. Don't worry about it until this thing is called. We're excited for it. The whole team is ready. We're you know, we rested over the weekend. I bought an entire eighteen pack of Celsius, So I'm ready to roll.
You're ready, I'm ready to go.
Good deal. All right, let's go ahead and get to Logan.
Very excited to be joined now by Race to the White House, Logan Phillips, our exclusive election Partner's great to see you.
My friend.
Hey, great to see you as aways.
All right, so let's get into it. Yeah, sure, all of us.
At exactly seven oh one pm on Saturday, for election nerds out there, it was a big super Bowl. The Iowa Seltzer poll dropped absolutely shocked the entire political world and really made this thing much more to toss up than I think others were prepared for us. Let's gohea and put this up there on the screen and take a look. So what they have inside of the Des Moines Register, the famed you know, Iowa and Seltzer poll, is that they have Kamala Harris up by three points on Donald Trump in the state logan. Now, the reason why this is such a shock is that this poll, arguably previously was one of the main reasons why Joe Biden dropped out of the race, had him down by eighteen points against Donald Trump, which people were transposing those results onto neighboring Michigan and Wisconsin and saying, if that's the truth, then there's absolutely no way that Joe Biden has a chance at winning any of these any blue wall states. Now, Iowa, I mean what a democrat is not one? I Once is twenty twelve, So the first time in twelve years of the poll has a Democrat leading there. Donald Trump went it by somewhat ten points or so last time around. So give us your analysis, not only in terms of you know, we can give all the caveats if it's true, if it's an outlier, and all that, but let's let's start with and let's suppose it is true.
What does that tell us about what's gonna happen tomorrow?
Well, you know, I had just finished work for the day on Saturday, and my intern called me and told me the result, and I like had him check five times.
Yeah, yeah, I had. I was multiple times. I was like, there's no way. Yeah, we checked like.
Eight different Twitter accounts before I believed it, because it was like they must have at least flipped the results because even if it was Trump only up by three, just that ye'd be terrible cataclysmic.
For Yeah, because in the post blue check era, you never know if like count as someone that is like Dave washer Men's or something, it's just like slightly off. But no, the poll was legit, and so if it were anyone else, I'd be like, Okay, this had a weird day. Good on them releasing it. But Selzer called prison Obama winning in a landslide in the two thousand and eight Iowa caucus when no one else saw it right. Rick Santorum having a shocking win over Mitt Romney in the coming like from two percent of five weeks ago. In twenty twelve called Donald Trump's surprisingly strong win both cycles in Iowa. So I don't think we can dismiss it given that almost every time she breaks with convention, she's right, this one is breaking so hard more than any of the others with what we expect that I don't think she's right that he's gonna win it. But before I viewed it as a safe race, Mount model had it a two percent chance for them. Yeah, hey, maybe it was. Doesn't reflect well. I mean I should get a little more room for incertainty there. Now I have it up to around twenty or you know, twenty five. Sure which.
Chance I want to when.
That's I mean to be clear, no one was looking at Iowa as a battle guard, including the campaigns yea, Like they're not campaigning there, they're not running ads there, they're not doing any of that. And so what she finds we can put this up on the screen is she finds effectively huge movement among women. Kamala is wunning independent women in this poll in Iowa by twenty eight points. She's up by a two to one margin among senior women. And so that's basically the story that she's telling is that Roe being overturned was a political earthquake. It has dramatically shifted the electorate, and other pollsters are not capturing the movement among women, in particular towards Kamala Harris and towards Democrats. How much credence do you give to that story? Are there any other data points to support this, because as we know, as we've been covering on the show, almost every other poll is like tie, tie, tie, plus one in this way, plus one that way, maybe plus two if we're getting crazy. But it has been so old stable and such a coin flip this entire time.
So I would say the odds are that it is just going to be wrong by quite a bit. There's a case though, that she's right, and if there's a huge pulling miss against Harrs. These are some of the seeds. There's another seed we saw last week. We were talking about hurting last week. Yeah, it's silver. This really good analysis over the weekend, at least I read it over the weekend. So there's like less than a one in a trillion chance that the posters aren't hurting.
I think it was nine point five trillion, ye five trillion, chan wow, So I don't even know what the decimal point on that would look.
Like, Yeah, my brain isn't big enough to be able to calculate mentally, the difference.
Between getting struck by lightning like eight times is more likely. Yeah.
So the reason they're doing this is because no one wants to be Quinnipiac being name checked by Donald Trump after a bad cycle, blaming, you know, blaming them, and that hurts their ability to get revenue. Hey, ABC, Washington Post is pole partner. They've been with them for a long time. Theyan one of the best. They had a horrible cycle. They're not with them anymore, so it's easier to stay in the middle. I'm not saying all posters are doing this, but clearly a lot of them are trying to play it safe. The second thought of this is maybe they're not just staying.
In the middle.
Maybe they're in particular avoiding having out liars the fever Harris, because that's a lot more dangerous. She's not gonna name check pollsters in her speech accepting defeat right.
Well, Also, I think it's it wouldn't even be the name checking, it's just that it's a pattern. It would be three cycles in a row rxact and that would mean that you have a systemic problem. And let's just hammer home for people what the past results. Can we put a four please up on the screen. So here you have the final Seltzer fold result poll findings and the results. On twenty twenty two centate she had R plus twelve. The result was R plus twelve. Twenty twenty President she had R plus seven. It was R plus eight. Twenty twenty Senate she had R plus four. It was R plus seven. Twenty eighteen gubernatorial she had this is an interesting she had D plus two and it was R plus three, So that was one of the bigger misses. Twenty sixteen presidents she had R plus seven. It was R plus nine. Twenty fourteen Senate she had R plus seven. It was R plus eight. Twenty twelve President she had D plus five. It was D plus six. So, as he says, about as good as any polster as gets. If we look back in the last twelve years, if your biggest miss is a five point swing towards Republicans, that's roughly two points outside the margin of error. So if we were even think that, you know here three points margin of error, so that would mean it's actually tied. Donald Trump is up by two, Trump up only a two in Iowa, a state that he won by what eight points last time around. That's kind of a disaster, right, So if that's if we take it seriously. The other case is just a massive outlier or you have polling response bias or any of that.
So can you run through.
Yeah, that's that's still by far the most likely when something wildly goes against your assumptions, even it's a great Polster, that's the probability. That being said, I literally have a Salzer specific contingent in my pulling up a John for anyone else because I found every single cycle and I tested it, the more way that gave to Selzer's pull, the better it was. And so eventually I kind of had to bite the bullet and just do that.
So I think Silvera has the same thing. He says higher rates Polster in his entire average.
So there you go. Yeah, yeah, and you know what, we have seen similar things in Nebraska. Second, I mean that wass expected Harris to be leaving. She's even like ten points.
Yeah, I think what in Biden went in by a last it's like college vote, right, including I believe the New York Times poll of that district had her up by twelve.
Yeah, so quite significant.
Okay, So let's say that even if Kamwa Hurst isn't winning Iowa, but this is sort of directionally correct, right, She's picking up movement that other pollsters are suppressing out of whatever reason. How does that translate to the other states in the region. Could it be because we actually have some information here? I'm not sure what element it is, but anyway, Iowa has a six week abortion pan that was just instituted and it has been a central issue in terms of the political conversation in the state. So is it possible she is picking up some accurate movement in the state of Iowa, but that is very specific to that state and does not really translate to Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
Et cetera.
Yeah, I mean those states have had some ability to moderate on abortion in the twenty twenty two midterms, set good point. Iowa didn't have, and you know, I would swung a little bit back. In twenty eighteen, Democrats won three out of four House seats. They might have won four if Steve King, the guy who called himself a white nationalist, to lose his primary. Wow, and then it lurns hard right in twenty and twenty twenty two. Right, there's a possibility like an object in motion in politics, isn't away state in motions of course?
Versus that's such an important thing for people to understand. You know, it wasn't that people today, probably if you're young, you're like, oh, I was a red state, Like, well, wasn't that long ago?
You know, Obama won it.
You want to buy a decent amount the last two times around, Let's go ahead and move on. I think to Emerson, this was this is the counter right a five? Can we put that please on the screen. So the very same day that Seltzer comes out, Emerson also comes out with its own pole. It's got Trump up by ten here in Iowa. Now, the criticism I've seen is that Emerson is more one of the hurting polsters, you know that is out there. They may be using the traditional like recall to vote. I think Chrystal's point is really key. You know, one of the reasons why nobody's been paying attention is that people thought it was read state.
Neither the campaign's been paying attention.
But you know, locally they did literally just have a six week abortion man that went into effect, and of course that's going to be felt deeply by the people there. And actually in the congressional races, they have all been running crazy ads on abortion in either direction for this entire time, which could be itself obviously contribute to the overall presidential result. But that's a confounding variable, I mean, really is interesting because one of those where it's like, look, somebody's gonna be right here, you know, and she's got a famous reputation and all that, but if it turns out to be catastrophically wrong, it will certainly it'll i mean be her biggest miss ever.
I think, yeah, it will be, and I'll give her respect for doing it. She's fearless.
Yeah, yeah, yes, she's got what it can.
You explain the methodology too, so as I understand, it's not weighted per se. It's more like random digit dialing that.
Yeah, she's calling voter rolls, not just random people, so you can't go into that. Yeah, she's trying to get a sense of which different groups are going to vote by just talking to everyone and then getting represented sample the elector, which has worked for her. It's a little old school, but you know, the reality is you don't know which groups are gonna vote more. You use last cycles as a basic principle, but it's part of the reason why you're going to underrate people, Right.
So let's do the opposite, so you know, if she's wrong, obviously, this is devastating for her reputation. Everybody else is proved right, including the posters who were just like, let's kind of cluge it and make sure it's not.
Too far off of the twenty twenty yearsult.
What if she's right, then what does that do to the entire rest of the polling industry If she's correct and we're in the type of landslide territory where Kamala Harris is winning the state of Iowa or even competing contesting the state of Ioway.
Yeah, it would definitely free upholsters from hurting next time, I.
Said a lot of posters a lot of time in general, Yeah, I.
Think everyone's ratings, including myself, for polsters they are forecasting, would emphasize to a greater degree those that don't hurt that would get more positive coverage.
Yeah.
Now it's kind of laughing at the ones that do that. Right, start to switch ever so slightly now, So I think it would change industry in that regard. Would it decrease trust to a degree? Yeah? I mean we're also you know, we're in a cynical era. I don't if it's a social media thing or what goes viral. But when you mess up everyone sitting more than you get it right.
Very true, It's absolutely true.
Yeah, that's not fun to talk about which polster was the best.
Correct and also the people who are the best in twenty twenty were wrong in twenty sixteen. So it's one of those where it's you can't really use just past results as a perfect predictor.
It will be like literally the only polster that anyone listens to.
Yeah, if she ends up being correct here, Yeah, that's a good point.
Let's go and put New York Times then up on the screen because this is a little bit of a different story and actually a very confounding and interesting one. So the New York Times CNA, this is a poll which, let's give them credit, they haven't heard it in the past, right, and they don't use the weighted sampling, but they've got very very different results here. So in Nevada they have Harris up by two points, North Carolina they have Harris up by two, sorry three points, can't do perfect math here. Wisconsin they have her up by two, Georgia they have her up by one, but in Pennsylvania they have it tied. In Michigan they have it tied as well. And then in Arizona they have Trump up by four. So they actually have Harris in Nevada, in North Carolina and was constant in Georgia and but then tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. So a tightening there in the blue Wall states, whereas a sunbelt kind of all over the map with an Arizona leading for Trump, but Nevada they're leading for Harris. What can you What do you make of these results and some of the cross tabs as to their explanation as to how they got there.
Yeah, I sell of them was straightforward path for Harris is from Pennsylvania. But North Carolina's probably the best back in my buddy.
Yeah, it's a number two tipping state I think in the silver analysis.
Yeah, and I think for me it's two or three too. So I think that we you know, I've said this before, hay to be broken record. We get too locked into like what the cleanest path is there's so many variations I could easily absolutely yeah, you're right, which I didn't know this before today, but somehow I just found you got every single.
Right, totally totally lucky.
Like I think you and Larious about are the only two people I've heard of that got both Florida and Georgia right. Oh really, And I think it's a good example for the rest of US mortals that states consume in the other direction we expect, right, because you don't expect Georgia to be to write a Florida going into that cycle. So Carolina could easily end up there. I mean, there's a lot of low kind of like you're talking about a Viowa. North Carolina is being governed right now well by the super majority in the state house. Is if they're a very very deep red state, when it's a swing state, that can easily turn off voters, especially in abortion and yeah.
In migration, very liberal. That's a difference with Arizona. I'll talk about this in my prediction, but that's a key part of my prediction.
Let's put a seven up on the screen here. This is the some of the abortion stuff that I referred to before So you've got a number of states that have abortion related ballot initiatives that will be you know, on the ballot tomorrow. Nevada and Arizona are two of them, Florida another one.
How much if we look.
At twenty twenty two, because that's the only post row cycle that we really have to look at, how much did it matter the state specific abortion politics? So you know, do you think, for example, that in Nevada, in Arizona, because they have abortion ballot initiatives that voters are also going to be voting on, that that could shift vote be impactful in terms of the ultimate.
Outcome if it we're twenty twenty six, Oh my gosh, yes, because it's a presidential your interest is already higher. It's certainly help but for Democrats. But it's not nearly as big of a help as it would be because this is the biggest game in town. It already gets people engaged, Right.
That makes sense.
Can we put Iowa early vote up on the screen. This was a confounder to some of the Steltzer results. Uist tic A look, this tell me what you think. So in terms of the Iowa early vote, what they see is, you know, pretty decent Republican share of early vote there highest that it's been, you know, in terms of where it is now. Obviously that no party vote is still some twenty one percent. Obviously, if Seltzer is correct, then that would mean that almost all of that is swinging towards the Democrats, which it actually would back up some.
Of her results.
But taking a look at the early vote, this is what I've saw a lot of Republicans and their criticisms say, is like, look, we just don't see any of this right now. If anything, we're seeing like Republican enthusiasm coming out in terms of their share of the early vote electorate.
I guess part of that could.
Be is they're just more use to voting early now time around, so you shouldn't read too much. And then, of course the Democratic response is yes, but take a look at that indie share, and the indie share could be overwhelmingly Democratic.
Yeah, And throwing to the fact that I always been zipping right at a fast pace, it was twelve points to the right of the popular vote, I believe last cycle, if voted dark plus eight, I believe Maybia was a little more in that. So for to then all of a sudden move. I mean some of the polling and the popular vote is showing it tied plus one plus two. Hats so that would mean it zipped thirteen the other way. Yeah right, unless well, if she's winning Iowa buy three, the popular vote at that point is highly likely to be like t plus two.
Yeah, correct, good point.
Yeah boy, it would be a wild night if that ends up being even remotely accurate. It's going to be very surprising, I think for all of us if we were to see that happen. But you know, take it with all the other polling results, and I don't know, make of it what you will. Let's go ahead and take a look at the Senate and how we're looking there. We can put your projection up on the screen. Guys, this is a ten. So just take us through the US a little bit, how these various races are breaking, and what the most likely outcome is Wednesday morning when things start to shake down.
Yeah. So this is where I have the polling average, right, And so I think that the pathway for Dams is just for one thing to go wrong for Republicans and for them to hold on to Ohio where they have a small lead. They got four states where that could be an option to Braska, Texas, Florida, in Montana. All of those except Montana have been moving a little more to the right lay in the close, which is kind of what we expected. There's still a pathway for it to happen, but you know, they're underdogs. Two and three shots you hold onto the Senate maybe a touch more.
Yeah, and I think we have that.
We can show the projection the next element at age eleven that shows the chances of winning a Senate majority. So you've got Democrats at roughly a third of you know, thirty three percent and Republicans roughly sixty six percent. So Democrats was like a one in three shot at keeping the Senate majority. So is it your assessment at this point their best shot is Montana.
Yeah, I still think it is. I mean, testers has a lot of fundamental strengths. Last selection needed a great job. He has a huge fundraising advantage, which is signing candidate qualities running against the first time candidate. She has a strength, has some weaknesses with the whole gun.
Yeah, we'll talk about that.
Yeah, before we get to that, I'm just I'm looking.
I'm looking at the analysis.
So for the Democrats to so like in this, you know, overperform, Like where would the pickups cause it would be Montana and then what else for them.
To keep a majority?
Oh they just need Montana, they just Needo wow.
Oh oh if they hold.
On to them, which they probably Well when I said probably, like I think it might be the closest Senate race, right yeah, and by the time they're picking up another that they probably have Ohio huh. And he's led most of the polling.
Yeah, he's led.
You know in most ways. They don't seem all that confident. The Marina I mean, even the internal ones that they've released show him running like well below Trump. I mean, Sherey Brown's a strong candidate. He's an actual credibility on union It's deal issues. He's been there for what like twelve to two cycles now for We're literally rid a book he supported a lot of He's running ads me like I support President Trump's tariffs.
You know, it's like everything you bossibly.
Don Yeah, exactly, That's what they used to do. That's what ends used to do.
That's my question then about Osborne, So how does he factor into all this? How's the polling been looking at him? Because we've been keeping our eye on.
Yeah, it's gotten a little more friendly to Fisher, which makes some sense, but it's still Razor tiet. Yeah, he's out running Fisher to the right and his ad. It's kind of interesting to see saying I stand with Trump and all these things, and Fisher's been bought out by big donors, right, and you know it. I think it's working even if he doesn't win, because it's incredible how close it is.
Yeah, truly, truly, it definitely could be a model for future cycles.
Oh, I think it will be as was Evan McMullen for him, I mean, he's running a more monerorate campaign. That was the guy who ran in Utah. I only lost to Lee by ten points plus thirty our state. Yeah. So so one other thing on Ohio. I think part of the problem for them is, you know, people don't trust politicians just about the only career profession that people trust least as he used car salesman and so, you know, forget regardless of marinos individual characteristics like that, that's a hard thing to get over from me.
That's his.
That's absolutely true. They literally have they have a national reputation. I think for a reason. Well, you teased up Montana, so I guess we have to get to it. There's this shocking clip of Megan Kelly interviewing Tim she about an alleged gunshot wound incident where he claims what did he say the gate?
Okay, so here's what he claims. He claims he was wounded during his military service. And now he's saying that when he went to a national park, he fell while he was hiking and the bullet fell.
Out of his arm.
But then he lied to the park rangers and said that he accidentally shot himself while he was at the park, and of course the story has shifted, and basically it looks like he lied about being wounded during his service and how he actually was wounded by was by shooting himself international park, which also, by the way, that would be a leader. You're not allowed to discharge firearm in national park, so there's that as well. So anyway, Megan Kelly, who's obviously on the right Trump supporter once Republic gets to win, et cetera, was trying to get to the bottom of what the hell his story even actually was, and even now he still can't really explain it. In a way that makes any kind of sense. Let's take a listen to how that went.
They're saying that you were in a park, Glacier Park, that you dropped your weapon, that it went off inadvertently and it shot you in the arm, and that there's a park ranger saying she spoke to you about that. It looks like you spoke to the Washington Post and you said that you lied when you told the park ranger about this.
So which is it like?
Did you shoot yourself in the arm inadvertently in Glacier Park.
No, We've discussed this at length, repeatedly with every media outlet for the last year.
It's been beat to death.
The point was, at the time I was injured and went to the hospital, they required a police report because any unshot room requires a police support of any kind. Uh, And they said, we have to file this, we have to report this law enforcement, but it wouldn't work.
It happened.
Did you have a wound in the park.
Yes, I fell and injured my arm when when we were hiking. So that's why I went because you know, I could feel the bullet at dis large when I when I when I fell and fell on the arm, you could feel the bulletet dislodged, and then went to the er to say, hey, you know, look, you know I've got internal blane going on here, I've injured my arm. Can you take a look at this, make sure there's nothing serious going on here? And then medical.
Records for the where the er can say we did not treat a gunshot wound, Well.
There isn't.
I mean, that's the point. You go in, you check on it, and you leave. There's not an extensive medical record for any of this stuff.
So uh yeah, I don't really know anything about what.
He just said right there, figuring out.
It fell out of his arm that didn't happen.
What do you say previously is like navy steal dudes, he was involved and whenever, why would you lie.
To the claim that you shot yourself when actually your bullet just out of your arm while you're hiking. Oh and conveniently there's no medical records.
It's a magic bully. That's why I was okay.
It was like literally like the magic bullet that fell out of Governor Connolly with the Kennedy assassin. Anyways, the point is that's getting a lot of attention in Montana.
A lot of gun.
Owners who are there, and I think he's been hit with that. So you think that there's a possibility of an upset, there's.
A possibility for sure that Tester ones he's done it before. He's out performing poles before. Yeah, I mean, Tester is he crafts quite a persona you know, has three fingers lost too on the farm. He comes back literally every weekend from the Senate to farm. You know, he's he's as committed to his ranch as any Montana rancher.
Yeah.
He's also a state that used to elect fifty percent of its statewide officials were Democrats for like the first twelve or fourteen years of the center of this mollennium, and that solely ended one by one, even as it was voting for Republicans for a while. But that's the ticket voting is reducing, so it's getting tough for every year.
Yeah, I mean that's I mean, I guess.
Actually my final thing here on the Senate part is, can you give you people a sense of how crazy Senate races can be off? Like, what was it main last times they had her down by I think twelve I actually want to say twelve points for Susan Collins, but it might have been eight.
It was something like that.
She won by eight and she was down by two or three, so the margin might have been.
The margin's crazy, right, But then they had what Jamie Harrison, they had it tied with Lindsay Graham.
He won by like seventeen or something.
That's that's the height of bad pulling for the Senate was twenty. It was even worse than the presidential pulling. You didn't get as much attention. So it's normally as bad is that, but it can be. Yeah, I mean, Senate poll misses are bigger than presidential on average.
And people don't spend a lot of money.
National media outlets are not spending money pulling Montana all the time. They're not spending a lot of money pulling Ohio as well. So I guess the point of preparing people is upsetts can happen in those places in particular, Like we just showed everyone with Iowa, no one's poll in Iowa except pants Oltzer.
So you know, we don't have a lot of data.
It could be, you know, certainly possible, but it just shows that big surprises like that can come from places that people are not paying all that much attention to I remember Texas last time, that big Latino surge. Nobody picked it up period in any of the national polling because there had no reason to be poll in South Texas. And then the polls come in and it was the PoTA County or whatever goes in for Trump. You're like, what the hell is going on down here? So it can be fun for tomorrow night, is what I'm preparing for.
Last question for you, you know, what is the extent the likely extent of ticket splitting that we could see, you know, and this is relevant not just in the Senate race. I'm thinking of North Carolina in particular. Yeah, this dude running for governor, Mark Robinson on the Republican side, is probably gonna lose, but definitely double digits, maybe fifteen.
Maybe twenty.
And yet it's a state that Trump really kind of needs to win. So do you think it's possible to have that level of ticket splitting?
Yes?
And what about in the Senate races. I've seen some indications that, you know, there was more separation between the presidential race and the Senate candidates. On the Democratic side in particular, it seems like in the blue Wall states. That seems to be tightening, and there seems to be sort of more direct correlation between the presidential race and the Senate races. Are you seeing that in other places?
Well, yeah, there's some correlation, for sure. They're getting closer. But I mean, look, Pennsylvania is like a fifty to fifty state for the presidentially my model, it's eighty percent for the Senate. That's upset that happened. Yeah, it acquire twenty twenty level polling miss for McCormick to win. That's happened before, but that's one the biggest polling misses we've ever seen. So he's an underdog. He's done a good job against Casey, who overperformed Hillary Clinton by like fifteen points some red rural districts. Wow, he goes everywhere.
Yeah, you know, and he's from Western pet Pa. He's got the credibility, he's got the family name. He's like, it's as good as it gets.
I think for Pencil, I went to undergrad in Gettysburg and he was shown up in Gettysburg more than one really, and that's that's deep red area.
Very interesting.
All right, Well, we are going to see you tomorrow night. Here for the big show. So yeah, thank you. I was always great to have your insights.
Good to see me on guys. All right, let's get to it.
All right, guys, So we are going to spend some time taking a look at the closing pitch from both campaigns. Up first, this is the fun closing ad from the Trump campaignless segalism.
Four years ago, we took a wrong turn and lost our purpose. We lost the strength that makes Americans who we are. If we dared to speak the truth, it was called hate speech and our values were labeled shameful. That's what everything we care about fell apart. We surrendered our borders, our paychecks, and our courage. Our patriotism was called toxic. Men could beat up women and win medals, but there was no prize for the guy who got up every day to do his job. Now we're being asked to settle for the way things are, and we're wondering if America can make a comeback. We can because we've done it before. When we get knocked down, we don't stay down. We get up again. We fight. We fight.
I'm Donald J. Trump and I approved this message.
So closing there with the Trump assassination attempt famous fight Fight Fight moment. You know one thing I just noticed watching that song, almost one hundred percent men in that ad.
Yeah, it's well, there was one lady there of I.
Mean, come on, how cannot watch that?
It's obviously the most masculine return ad that it is. I mean, well, that's the strategy, that's what they need, that's how they should come out to win. If you think about it, that's a very American carnage message from twenty sixteen. It's exactly one in the White House in the first time around, and it's one with the imagery. The only thing I think you could really change is now you have a bunch of it's a very diverse ad, I'll put it that way. So it's diverse men as opposed to I think it was almost exclusively white in twenty sixteen. They're trying to go for the pan racial kind of male demographic, and if you look at the GOP commentariat, one of the things that they're driving home right now is we've got to get men that have got to come out and vote because of the historic gender gap, and that's a big bet that they're trying to make here. Traditionally, women do out vote man, although you know, turnout is down relative to twenty twenty, so they could still have some interesting surprises. But I thought it was vintage Trump. That's very much like a is the spectrum of we got to go back. I mean, if you think about it too, if you think about the affection that people still have for Donald Trump. One of the reasons why it's favorables are so much higher this time than last time. We see it was literally president, and it was president in the before times, mostly before COVID, and people remember fondly prices, a feeling of order. This is pre a lot of the crazy stuff that happened in COVID in twenty twenty one. They blame Biden for that. That's one of the reasons Biden so longer in the race. And you want to hit all of those notes of we got to take our country back from this chaotic period. So I think it was a smart ad. It's very American carnage. It's the opposite of like a quote unquote hopeful message.
And if he does win, I think that will be a smart strategy.
Yeah.
And so the other thing I noticed about it is outside of the final images of Trump up on stage after the assassination attempt, it actually doesn't really have.
Trump at all, which is smart actually, which.
Is interesting too, you know, making a referendum on the Biden years. And one thing I'll say is, I don't know that the campaign has done as an effective job as they could trying to tie Kamala directly into the Biden record, and that was, you know, one of their main goals and jobs from the beginning, from when she was swapped in as candidate. But Trump, because he has zero message discipline and never has and never will, has not really like consistently prosecuted that case. So part of the effectiveness of that ad really hinges on how much were they able to tie her to a Biden record, which is undoubtedly unpopular. On the flip side, we've got the Kamala Harris closing ad. Let's take a listen to her final pitch to voters.
Hannah, I'm here, Hanna and shakes my hand.
How you Dylan gay and bring everybody back to And that's exactly how I feel.
That's why I'm doing.
Okay, you have to stay in touch with me, Okay, I'm very serious about that.
Okay.
Throughout this campaign, I've seen the best of America, and I've seen what is holding you back and weighing you down. High costs, fundamental rights taken away, and politics that have driven fear and division. You deserve better. As president, I'll bring a new generation of leadership. I'll take on price gouging and bring down the cost of groceries and housing and prescriptions.
I'll fight for.
Your freedom to make your own choices, and i will protect your healthcare and your benefits, not take them away. The vast majority of people in our country have so much more in common than what separates them. Good people, hard working people. We see in our fellow Americans, neighbors, not enemies. We believe in each other, we believe in our country.
We're not falling for these folks who are trying to divide us together.
We'll build a bright in future for our nation where we stand for freedom, we stand for justice, we stand for the dignity of work. We haven't yet quite reached all of those ideals, but we will die trying because we.
Love our country.
Now the baton is in our hands. I pledge to seek common sense solutions to make your life better, and I pledge to be a president for all Americans. Now I'm asking for your vote because as president, I will get up every day and fight for the American people.
I'm Kamala Harris and I approved this message, so pretty significant.
Contrast in the approach.
The area literally died nine day right.
This optimism, even the music is diametrically opposed. She's got this like aspirational optimistic score. It's direct to camera from her, she's speaking, I mean part of that and putting her behind the podium is again trying to help people to imagine her in that role as commander in chief. You have men and women represented there in that ad, which is you know, one thing that I've noted before soccer is Democrats have recognized.
They've got an issue with men.
You know.
I don't know that they've done everything they need to in terms of outreach, but they certainly have made some efforts, whereas the Trump campaign has really just decided like, Nope, we can't win over like the women who are concerned about abortion, they're gone. We can't win them over. We need to just really super serve this male base that we're hoping are going to ultimately turn out.
I honestly agree with that.
I don't think there as much you can do on the abortion issue, Like it is basically as binary as it gets. You're either supported or you don't. In terms of trying to win people over. If you look at opinion polling, you know, it is genuinely and always has the number one issue for a lot of these female voters, especially these newer female voters.
But men are very different. They think about a lot of different stuff.
That's another reason why that economy that ad for trum Trump was all about the economy, Kamma, it's a little bit more of you know, you get a message for everybody, you know, for the men who are with you kind of on abortion, but you got to give them some economy stuff, but you've got a heavy emphasis like I'll protect your freedoms. You know, they use that language a lot. It's interesting too, if you looked at that big January sixth, you know, retrospective rally that she had about democracy, the word freedom was everywhere in the comma L added and I took notice of that.
I'm like, you know, this is actually kind of interesting.
Yeah, in terms of the messaging, I've talked about the social libertarianism, how much more popular that is from democrats. It's supposed to like ninism, and the comfort stems from more of like a woke ideology. So it is interesting to see what is obviously popular, what is pulling on. I also note there's not a single message of I'm a woman and you should elect me.
There was a little nod to it because she had that, you know, she said something like we haven't always lived up to rospiration. They have the picture of like the little black girl marching and the civil rights but that was it. Yeah, you know, it's funny that you read that your reaction to the Trump ad was that it was mostly about economics, because my reaction to it was mostly cultural.
Well, because you've got.
You know, they got to throw in the Algerian boxer is in there. They talk about, you know, your patriotism is labeled toxic. They sort of give this illusion to cancel culture and then you know the sense of like chaos. So to me it was heavier emphasis on cultural. Kama's ad was similar to what she tried to achieve in that speech at the Ellipse, which was yes, to make the case about like we got to come together, we got to put this you know this ugliness in our past. But also she got in there like you know, I'm going to go after the price gougers. I'm going to seek common sense economic solutions, blah blah blah. So trying to marry sort of that like democracy argument with the more populist parts of her economic pitch. So you know which is going to land. We're going to find out soon enough. And even if also these are the messages that these campaigns want to put out. That's the other big question is whether the paid communications really matter that much or whether it's more about the meta media narratives, which you know about that.
Yeah, I hold ex ploma about Madison Square Guards exactly, turning point right.
We do have some other info we can share. So this literally just came out. I'm gonna mention it. Maybe we can edit it in in post production. But the final day schedules from the candidates are out. The final day schedule from Donald Trump will be Raleigh, North Carolina, Reading Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Grand Rapids, Michigan. Grand Rapids is the traditional last time site for Trump. It was his last rally in twenty sixteen, last and twenty twenty. Apparently he's superstitious because he thinks he won in twenty twenty, so he wants to.
Do it the final day schedule.
This tells you a lot from Harris Scranton, Allentown, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, so last one BA, so all Pa, whereas Trump's got to shore things up in North Carolina. Two stops in PA, take notice, Pittsburgh, you know, reading and with the location of those, and then finally Grand Rapids. Last time Michigan really was such a huge win for him in twenty sixteen. That was one that they bet.
The farm on.
I remember, you know, so many arguments I had with people were like, there's no way Trump is going to win Michigan. I remember thinking that and it was like boom. In terms of what the true shock of the night was. We also should we remind people about Biden about his closing message.
You guys see it highly affected. Do you guys want to see his closing message. Let's take a listen.
This is the kind of guy you're like a smacking ash.
So even the delivery of that is very like.
He's going on there.
You know, he's got the dimension stoneface, like every time he speaks, it's like his entire the facial, the mouth is moving, nothing else is going on up here.
They're just blank behind the eyes.
It's also I mean, he wanted to campaign for Kamala and kept reaching out and they just basically were like good, no, and he did that those comments.
What was it that he said that?
Uh oh, the garbage comment that caused such a problem he was supposed to do. I guess what they had relegated him to was like, Okay, you can do these zoom calls with some of the starget groups. We don't think that you can fuck that up too badly. But after the garbage comments, all of those.
They cancel everything.
They were all pulled.
So even this very limited role that they felt safe having Joe Biden and do, at the end of the day they were like, no, sorry, we're even pulling the plug on that, which just I mean, it's just it's astonishing that this man is still the president.
Right.
He can't be trusted to do a zoom surrogate call with people who already support the ticket, even that is to weight your responsibility for him, And yet he has the nuclear codes. There you go, case number example number three, thy five hundred and seventy two. Why the Kamlayers campaign is like, we're probably not going to be campaigning with you because this is just not help.
Not only are we not campaigning with you, it's like we don't even want to mention you. We don't want to do with the Biden what administration, who you know in terms of totally ticket there, totally yeah. So anyway, let's put the next one up there. This is this is going to be very interesting. So I mentioned the Final Day analysis. Trump is rallying every single day until the election in North Carolina they say a swing state that he won twice, but that really indicates so I mean, both of these schedules we can read a lot into this Trump campaign. They're worried about North Carolina. They got him there every day all over the weekend. Final Day, They've got a state stop there in North Carolina. And the Harris campaign they're worried about PA. Four stops all in PA. Final stop in Philadelphia. They had a big ad that's been running all across the Philly area about how Philly like stands up for freedom and about democratic overperformance. They're betting the house on the mainline and on urban turnout there and they're hoping that that's going to be enough to stop what they see is the rural turnout in Western PA. That's exactly why, by the way, you have Trump there in Pittsburgh for his final stop to see where the two you know, demographics specifically of that big state, very very different populations even just across the state, and who they're trying to turn out for what is likely to be the tipping point in the election.
Yeah, and both of those states are similar in terms of Electoral College votes. So Pennsylvania has nineteen, North Carolina has sixteen. So both of them, you know, significant prizes electorally, and you know, for either candidate, you know, if Kama can't win Pennsylvania, the map becomes pretty tough for her. North Carolina might be a decent substitute, and same for Trump, if he can't pull off North Carolina, state that you know he won twice, becomes a lot more challenging for him to be able to put together to seventy. Last element we have here is the closing schedule for Kamala Harris, going back a few days to show you know, the focus over really the past week. So Thursday, she was out in those Sun Belt states in Arizona, in Reno and Las Vegas, Nevada. Friday, woke up in Vegas, then headed to Milwaukee. On Saturday, she was in Georgia and North Carolina, and Sunday she was in Michigan and then, as Soccer was saying before, closing out the day with a series of rallies in that critical swing state of Pennsylvania.
So that's what it looks like.
That's it, folks. It's the closing day.
You know, will give you all an update tomorrow, but a lot of the stuff tomorrow is just like b roll of people in line.
You know, you'll have some speeches and they're.
Trying to read the deal all the lines.
Yeah, everything long and wherever, and that means such and such for so and so.
And maybe the weather is bad. That's not bad.
Weather actually has you know, that has statistically impacted turnout in the past, like especially that's part of the reason people want early vote.
So much of the vote is cast early now that those like you know, election day like where the line blong kind of vibes are hard.
To I think sixty million people have voted already, maybe even more actually, which is crazy. And we both voted early a lot of people have all my friends. Yeah, fun, should I wear my voting sticker? I saved it?
Oh did you?
Yeah? No, I didn't get on all right, it was long gone.
But you're welcome to if you would like to promote our you know, doing your civic duty and casting your ballot, having your voice heard in whatever way that you choose. Let's get to this question over whether Donald Trump sort of October surprised himself with that people say, controversial rally at Madison Square Garden.
Put this up on the screen. So this is this.
Data scientist who I'm just gonna put my cards on the table. I don't credit his philosophy here very much because he relies on the like betting ons, he uses the betting odds and then has his own proprietary model to project what he thinks is going to happen in terms of the electoral college. But he has had some success in the past. So let's take a look at what this individual has to say.
The headline here from Fortune.
Which wrote up these data results are October surprise, Trump just blows huge lead and the Madison Square Garden Raley started the drop, says a top data scientist. They say, Donald Trump is suffering a historic descent of the campaign's final days, an ongoing free fall that is turning what looked like a walkway for the former president into what's most likely a Kamala Harris victory. That is the view from Thomas Miller, data scientist at Northwestern University, who's proprietary models proven right on in past elections. And so basically what Miller takes a look at is not just his not just the betting markets, but then he's got his own, i don't know, special whatever that he applies to it. And he found that prior to Madison Square Garden, at the time when everybody was feeling like all the polls are tightening, and you know, polymarket had Trump is like a seventy percent favorite to win.
Et cetera, et cetera.
He found it, according to his model, that Trump really was on track for a significant electoral college victory. And then that really falls off a cliff with Madison Square Garden.
Tony Hinchcliff the.
Other you know comments that were made at that the overall coverage of and vibe of that rally, and that Trump's odds really fell off a cliff after that, the quote here is Miller's numbers show a draw dropping swing to Harris that would have seemed unimaginable two weeks ago. And so, as I said Zager, like, I don't necessarily credit this model that much, because I don't know that I even buy that it's possible to have that dramatic of a swing at this point in the country's history, when voters are by and large pretty locked in about how they think about Roe versus Wade, how they think about Donald Trump, how they think about January sixth, et cetera.
But I do think we have some.
Additional data that pretty consistently shows that the bulk of the late deciders are to to break for Kamala Harris. And there's been a significant number of focus groups too, where undecided voters to describe the Madison Square Garden and the rhetoric there as kind of like the final straw that reminded them of all the things they didn't like about Donald Trump, and they just felt like they couldn't, you know, suck it up and vote for them, or you know, deal with that level of ugliness, chaos, et cetera, And so reminding of them of that in those final days really did kind of eat into his margins and cause some shift among those few late deciding voters towards coming.
Yeah.
I mean that's why I want to do this segment is Yeah, you know, it genuinely is a Ruschak test. Like for me, it seems psychotic that it's like, oh yeah, it's the msg Tony Hinchcliff joke. That's what put you over the edge, not all the other stuff that Trump has said. He's been in national life for almost what twelve years? Yeah, I mean if you go back, what birthurism started in twenty eleven? Is that correct? So that's thirteen years ago. So that's what put you over the edge, not even something in Trump's said. It was at is rally, and it was what other people were saying is rally. Okay, you know, frankly, you should have your head examine. But that is the big theory that the Harris campaign media wants us to believe it to and that's why I want to do it.
I'm like, I don't buy this stuff at all.
I just do not see how these quote unquote late deciders who are making up their mind are doing so based upon something then again, is not even Trump related per se. I think the only case that you could make that it is hurt Trump is the media coverage of it, if anything, and the ongoing discussion relative to any positive message that he's been able to put out there, which I think that's actually a fair one, right, which is that it could have people reminded of like, oh, is this what the Trump presidency is going to be like again? Or we just constantly going to have Fox and Friends segments about whether he what did he say about Mika Brazinski said she had like a shitty face left?
Yes?
Right, So it's like, is that what the presidency he's going to book like? Or is it going to be something that actually has to do with my own life? The data scientist stuff I thought was interesting because the thing is that this has been a big media talking point. Can we put C four please up on the screen? Is the Harris campaign is running with this wild They are claiming that absolutely MSG is what really pushed these late deciding voters to come home to the Democratic Party. They have put out say, say a quote significant advantage in these late deciding voters and that they have seen significant movement as like what is a two to one margin over the garbage thing. I saw what some quote that they had where somebody was even reacting to Trump in the garbage truck, and they're like, well, you know that only reminded me of the whole Puerto Rico situation.
Well, they didn't even know about the Biden comments, so when they saw him in the garbage truck, they thought he was just like doubling down.
Which, by the way, garbage island.
Reminder two of what people in the median voter. They're not paying attention, you know, respected to people who's let's say, watch this show. But again, for me to believe it would be that there are all these Latinos out there who was like, I'm about to vote for Trump, but because of what Tony Hinchcliff said about Puerto Rico, that's an for me to come home.
Kamala Harris, Sorry, I just.
Don't buy it.
I absolutely don't buy it at all. Even if you are straight up where to reaken, that's really enough for you to switch your vote seems nuts, especially if you're the type of person who's going to vote for Trump the first time. Anyway, It's just again ridiculous. But the data that they have, that's what they're claiming. The other reason, that's another reason that I suspect of it is it just seems all too cute, all too perfect for a media narrative they already hate anyway, and that we know love racism, conversation whatever for them to have this, And that's why the Harris campaign is leaking it to them.
Now.
Of course, you know, should we really take what the Harris campaign itself seriously?
I take it just seriously.
When the Trump people are like, we're seeing absolutely blowout turnout in New Hampshire, I'm like, no, you're not.
You're not gonna win New Hampster.
But what I'm looking at is actually the polling data that suggests like the New York Times Siana pole that we talked about earlier showed late breaking voters going, you know, lopsidedly towards Kamala Harris. There was a Univision you Go poll of Pennsylvania Latino voters. They did not like the common and they also had a huge divide in favor of Kamala Harris. She led Trump sixty four to thirty among Pennsylvania Latinos.
So here's why I don't want to overstate it, right.
But when Trump was at his best during his campaign, was and his poll numbers were the highest and he looked like he had the highest probability to win. Is when he was being relatively quiet, and it allowed his approval rating to improve. You know, where people have short term memories, and they kind of forgot, like some of the things about him that they really hated last time around. They kind of forgot, you know, some of the ugliness and the divisiveness and all of that stuff. And so you pair the fact that you got the Kamala Harris campaign prosecuting a case not just about like, oh, Trump's a fascist, but this guy's a divider, right, Like we're the ones that are going to put the country back together and we need to leave this ugliness in the past. And at the very time they're trying to prosecute that case, Trump and his campaign are out there on Madison Square Garden and with other comments, by the way, proving the point of all of this stuff you don't like about this guy, like it's still there here, it is on display, et cetera. So, yeah, one of the reasons Trump has really stayed in the game and had such a strong shot this time around is that his approval rating is significantly better than it was in the past. So you know, I think there's a reasonable case to be made that reminding people of their least favorite parts of his character traits here at the end has not served the campaign. And again, when you look at the actual pulling of late breaking voters, it does seem to pretty consistently show that they are moving towards Kamala Harris. So you know, I wouldn't say it's like, oh, just because of this one joke. It's that the whole tenor of that rally fit into a Kamala Harris campaign narrative and was for some voters kind of like a final reminder or a final straw that really pushed them into the Harris camp. So in that way, you know, we're talking about small margins here, et cetera. I do think that it probably that it may have been if if Kamala Harris wins at the end of the day, we may look back at that rally and say that it did end up being consequential. It also came at a time when they were feeling really hyper, super confident and felt like they could kind of just like let it all hang out. And I'm not sure the voting public were excited about what that had to see.
I think that's a convenient narrative for people who always want to get jazz uff about these things.
I just don't believe it.
I think if Kamala lose it, or so if Kamala wins, it can be all a portion all day. I really do.
On the polling that shows late breaking voters going for her, like, do you do you buy that pulling out?
Don't, because first of all, it's such a small sample. Second, like in the New York Times, Tanna, we're going crosstab diving on what like eight hundred to two thousand people. Even within that it's like, you know, the sample gets down to like a couple a dozen. Then we're talking about late breaking univision. I mean again, for Univision to be true, then the entire Latino realignment is fake. If sixty to thirty break is basically a twenty sixteen margin for a latinos So that you have to ask me, after eight years of watching this movement happen, do I believe that?
No?
Absolutely not, especially whenever we've seen previous Well, why aren't you telling me? In Philadelphia that the biggest movement was the Puerto Rican neighborhoods towards Trump. Okay, okay again, Like, if I want to put myself in the headspace Puerto Rican guy lives in Philly who supports Trump is the Tony Hinchcliff joke. That's really gonna be like, you know what, I'm supporting Kamala Harris, I just don't buy it. Like these are the type of people who hate political correctness. They're exactly the type people are on YouTube watching you know, Tony Hinchcliff comedy and think it's hilarious. Like that's the cultural milieu that if you're a Latino supporting Trump, that's kind of what you swim in is saying. You know, if we've seen the data, the vast majority of the Latino movement to the Republican Party started with Latin X that terminology of some four or five years ago and increasingly is moving along blue collar cultural lines away from political correctness. Was the exact type of people who get all spun up about Madison Square gardens. So you really would have to believe that the entire Latino shift and all that is fake. Now, look, it actually could be possible that it's all totally overstated. If there's a Harris landslide, it will be fake, and I you know, I'll eat it on the sock.
We could do it again, just the.
Lay other us of these times.
So, they asked Pennsylvania Latino voters, generally speaking, do you feel Trump is disrespectful or respectful towards Latino community? Sixty four percent said disrespectful, twenty eight percent said respectful.
They asked what is closest to.
Your view about the remarks at Madison Square Garden by the Trump campaign. Sixty nine percent said they were more racist than humorous, seventeen percent said they were more humorous than racist. Another only fourteen percent actually so they hadn't heard enough about the remarks, which might be the most interesting number there. But you know, I find it to me it's not so hard to imagine that it's not just this vote. It's like that brings up, oh, I remember how he treated, you know, Puerto Ricans after Hurricane Maria. And there's a corollary to like the sense that some men have gotten from the Democratic side of I just feel like they don't want me, even want me in their coalition, Like I feel a sense of contempt, and course voters are going to pick up on that sense of like, oh this is this is not a club that I'm really ever going to be part of. So again, I don't want to overstate it, but I do think that there's something to the fact that, certainly, if you wanted to choose how you were going to close out the campaign, Madison Square Garden and some of the comments that Trump has made since then are not all that helpful. Yeah, so we have C two.
Oh sorry, that's on Puerto Rico.
Yeah.
C two, where Trump was, you know, asked about the you know, the the Puerto Rico joke. Now, his campaign thought this was a problem right away. They put on a statement trying to distance themselves from Tony Hinchcliffe. Trump, of course, though, he's you know, again totally incapable of any sort of message discipline. So he says, I didn't see any problem with it. Let's take listen to what he had to say.
Well, I guess somebody put it on a comedian, any joke, here's a comedian a joke. You mentioned Puerto Rico. All of a sudden, the Democrat and they are good at this stuff. By the way, that's the only thing they're good at. They're no good at policy, they're no good at government. They're good at other things. They're very good at cheating. But other than that, they're not good at anything. So let me just so. They come up and a comedian put it early in the show as a filler. In all fairness, I guess he said some joke. I haven't heard the joke, but he said some joke and he mentioned Puerto Rico. All of a sudden, they come out with something about Puerto Rico. Nobody's been better to Puerto Rico than me. I saved Puerto Rico when they had they had some of the worst hurricanes. Really, bet I brought in the hospital ship, the mercy I bought in this massive hospital ship I brought is nobody in Puerto Rican's will tell you that nobody's done more for Puerto Rico than me.
Classic Trump. Nobody's done more for Puerto Rico than me. He also made some comments at recent rally. I'll just playing for you. Part of it is talking about how, you know, he wouldn't mind so much if someone had to shoot through the fake news, and then the other part is him talking about how maybe he should never have left the White House even after he lost. Of course, he doesn't acknowledge that he lost the stick a lesson of that.
I have a piece of glass over here, and I don't have a piece of last there, and I have this piece of glass here. But all we have really over here is the fake news, right, and to get me somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don't mind that so much.
I don't mind. I don't mind tho.
Our country.
The day that I left, I shouldn't have left.
I mean, honestly, because we did so, we did so well, we had such a great So now, I mean, every polling booth has.
Hundreds of lawyers standing there.
It's all about the lawyers. Everybody's standing at lawyers. Nobody should have that.
So in the closing week here much more of the focus has been on Madison Square Garden Trump's own comments, et cetera, highlighting some of his most off putting and most toxic traits. And so, you know, I don't think that's probably how the campaign when it's closed to I mean.
Look, well, first of all, it's Trump's campaign, so he can close it how he wants. Now, the only problematic one electorally, I actually think was the last one about when not wanting to leave.
That was the one.
I mean, no one's going to cry for a joke about shooting through journalists like no one's going to be again. I don't believe all this Latino brujaja around Puerto Rico could be wrong, you know, totally willing to eat it if I am, we'll find out tomorrow. But the stop the steal was a big problem in Pennsylvania, and that actually is the one where you can see in terms of his message discipline, that's the one which always has hurt him the most. Doug Mastriano lost by such massive margin last time around. That that is the one actually where if you were an advisor or something, you would be cringing about not wanting to leave the White House because it was specifically that itself that turned a lot of people off in PA. People were already Republicans, and that also cost them to doctor oz His. I don't even remember a mess of an answer he had on stop it was bad even I remember that in the disastrous Spetterman debate, even that one stood out of like that was rough in terms of that iant I mean it probably was that up there with abortion. So you know, in terms of the two things that turned voters off, I think that that last clip was the most consequential because apparently this to say something he said a long time.
I mean, look, it's just a bunch of bullshit talk. They did leave at the end of the day.
But it's like, if you want to remind people of, like, genuinely one of the things that has turned the most voters off about you, that is the one which you would walk away from.
But look, we'll see again.
My theory on Trump is all the shit is just baked in at this point, especially for a lot of men who are out there, they laugh, you know, if the criticism, they're like, it's funny. They you know, the media bed wedding, they love it. There's nothing they love more. They want the jokes, play it, you know, let's spread them around. They think it's hilarious. Now, big question is whether they're going to vote. And I do think it's a very open question. If there's a Harris landslide and it's because of the what is it, the hidden women effect or something like.
That, there should be a male reassessment.
There should be some there should be some therapizing that is happening in the male community. I mean, I've been trying to lead the charge on this by just saying, if your wife is afraid to tell you who they are voting for, you are a loser.
And it means that you have let me tell you that
