10/14/24: Kamala Falling In Polls, Obama Scolds Black "Brothas" To Vote Kamala, Kamala Declares War On Jill Stein, Trump Says He's Doing Rogan

Published Oct 14, 2024, 4:06 PM

Krystal and Saagar discuss Kamala faltering in polls, Former Senator Nina Turner joins to talk about Obama scolding black men voters, Kamala declares war on Jill Stein with new attack ad, and Trump says he's going on Rogan.

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Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we impressed all? Indeed, we do.

Lots of things happening here and around the world. So a bunch of new polls came out, none of them really very good for Democrats. Will take a look at the shifts there and what exactly is going on. We're also going to speak to Senator Nina Turner. She is going to talk to us about that Obama lecture to black men wild She has a lot of thoughts, so excited to talk to her about that. And also Dems are cutting an ad against Jill Stein another third party Cannis. That's a first, and I think it displays their nervousness about how much Jill Stein and Pertainer could cut into their vote totals, probably in states like Michigan. So we're also going to ask Nina Turner about that. Apparently Trump is saying that he is going to go on Joe Rogan's podcast. Roganhead in the past resisted having the former president on. Perhaps that may be changing, so we'll talk about that in the broader context of what people are deeming now the podcast election, a lot of very troubling news coming out of Israel and Gaza. In particular, there was a horrific strike by Israel on a hospital a Tens city there for displaced people caught fire. There are just unimaginably awful images of patient strapped to ivs who are being burned alive. So we will brace yourself for that one, but we'll talk about that. Also Haswlas struck in Israeli military base and there were some significant number.

Of casualties there. That's quite significant as well. We're taking a look at.

On a much lighter note, Gretchen Witmer apologizing after filming a really weird video. Show you that, and I'm taking a look at Elon's impact on this election, which may actual be unprecedented given the fact that Trump is saying he gave he is giving him five hundred million dollars, so half a billion dollars. And obviously he's running an entire social media platform for his benet benefit. He's effectively running the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania, which is the most critical swing state.

So we'll take a look at all of those things.

That's going to be really interesting before we get to that.

Thank you to everybody he's been signing up at breakingpoints dot com premium subscribers. Remember we have that exclusive election content with our forecaster Logan. He will be on the show tomorrow, so you're going to take some behind the scenes look. I found his analysis like so helpful. This guy is so in the weeds. And we also will be dropping to exclusive election content as we get closer to election day.

How long is it twenty one? We have twenty two days?

I think it is there.

You go, really three weeks one, so we're getting down to the wire pretty close to the time. Change too excited for that right before election day, so we get two double whammy's. But go ahead and sign out breakingpoints dot com. You'll be able to take a look at our maps we'll just say, you know, our maps were quite accurate last time, so there you.

Go, here's more of them mine. I got to give you a credit for that.

You know, it's funny I called every state in the election. I thought I would get more credit for it, and it ended up though, because of stop the steal.

Republicans were like, no.

Your map, your math is wrong.

But yeah, I did call it the election.

I didn't mistakenly click Maine wrong, so it doesn't look right, but.

Stating error it was at I apologize.

Yeah, so we'll see. You want to go ahead and sign up. You can take a look at that. We'll revealed them a couple of days before election day. We'll all talk about it and stuff like that. So let's go ahead and start with the polls. As you said, things really not looking good for Kamala Harris and the Democrats right now. Let's put this up there right now. Three national polls dropped yesterday morning. ABC IPSOS Harris was up fifty to forty eight, CBS News You Go, Harris was up fifty one forty eight, NBC News forty eight forty eight tied. All three had their last polls in September, so listen to this. ABC in September, Harris was up by six, now only up by two, NBC Harris was up by four, up now by three, and NBC probably the biggest drop, had Harris up by five at that time, now having the race tied. So keep in mind, not only are all of these polls within the margin of error, but most importantly, two or three points in the national popular vote is just not going to cut three maybe, but two almost certainly not.

You guys can go ahead and take a look at Nate.

Silver's popular vote analysis for yourself if you're interested. But none of those are comfortable enough territory for Kamala Harris. And when we start to break down where the change and all of that is coming from and some of the movement on the economy, that's probably the most important. Steve Kornaki at NBC News breaking this down. Let's take a listen.

She's the VP in an unpopular administration. Look, we ask Joe Biden's policies as president, do you think they're helping or hurting your family? Look at that almost two to one say hurting more than helping. His job approval rating is in the low forties. And then Here's the twist. When you ask folks when Trump was president or his policies helping or look at that difference, Forty four percent say helping, thirty one percent say they hurt.

So there you go.

Points on the economy, A lot of the are hurting my family. What people think about whether Trump administration policy help their family up by a thirteen point margin.

Trump really is.

He is in such a unique political position where he was the president, people could see him in that job.

He wasn't that president. He was president not that long ago.

And so you have the direct contrast, and you have not the incumbent like we had with Biden, but you have that relative incumbency with the vice president. And that is why I just go back to that moment from the view crystal where she said nothing in particular that I can think of except all sorry, I would have Liz Cheney or whatever, and I was just I was like, what an insane answer.

And all of the data is bearing that out.

So if Kamala loses a lot of it will come down to not only the economy, but the inability to truly distinguish herself from Joe Biden, the presidency, the administration, and to draw contrast with Donald Trump.

I've been a little little hesitant to on this because it matches my own political ideologies and beliefs a little bit too.

Closely, right of like, oh.

Guess what, you stopped talking about price gouging and started talking about Liz and Dick Cheney and your polls are moving in the wrong direction.

Gee, who could have predicted?

You know, at the beginning of when she comes in, there were a few very clear things she needed to accomplish. Number One, she needed to separate herself from Joe Biden. I mean this has been beyond obvious from day one, because he is very unpopular and people are very unhappy with how the economy was under him, predominantly because of inflation.

So she needed to figure out a way to.

Separate from him on the economy specifically, but also in another area where it's very unpopular, and it was where it's a big problem with the progressive base, on Israel and Palestine. She has been totally able, even at this point to figure out how to message on that, how to actually create some distance, not just rhetorical distance, but actually create some distance, and people were open to her being different, you know, We've seen polls in the past that said, oh, people actually think she's the change candidate, because you know, it's kind of a vibe thing. She looks and feels different. She's you know, identity wise, she's different, stylistically, she's different, she's from a different part of the country, whatever. She's much much younger, obviously than either of those two these two men. But since she was unable to back up that vibe of change with any substance, here we are right.

Then you roll out some pretty.

Good policies that are really popular, things like that the price gouging thing I talked about, you know, the housing policy, and they still come up. So I'm not going to say she didn't talk about them whatsoever. But the thing they've chosen to lean into the hardest is I'm going to have Republicans in my cabinet. Here I am, yes, here, I am campaigning with Liz Chaney. Where's the campaign with Bernie Sanders, who was profoundly more popular, especially among working class voters, than Liz Cheney is.

So they decided to go in that direction.

I think their theory was that the problem for Kamala is that people see her as too liberal when really the biggest problem for Kamala is that people see her as having zero ideological commitments or core and by doing this whole like pivot to Liz Cheney thing, she's only underscored and exacerbated those problems. Now, I do want to say that there's a lot of assumptions that the polls are going to understate Trump again because they understated him in twenty sixteen, and they understated him in twenty twenty. That is certainly possible, but it's not definitive. Twenty twenty two, they understated Democratic support. And we're going to talk about this in a little bit, And we've mentioned on the show before many of these pollsters have changed their methodology to try to guarantee. They're very risk averse to try to guarantee they won't understate Trump support this time. So they are using a different method than they did back in twenty twenty when you actually had the largest miss.

So there's no guarantees.

About which way the polls, you know, under state or overstate the support. But what you can say for sure about these polls, since we had them up on the screen, three national polls, all three you know credible pollsters that in each instance the polls have moved away from Kamala Harris. And so if you see a you know, a significant shift that is consistent across pollsters, where you know, within that same pole using that same methodology, it is shifted, you have to feel that that is representing something real. The last thing, the last point I'll make before we dig into some more of the numbers here is some of these polls have for like a.

Two point margin.

There is some indication that Democrats are closing the gap in terms of the disparity between the popular vote and the electoral college vote, predominantly because Trump is winning more people in Florida, which is definitely going to be a red state, in New York, which is definitely going to be a blue state, in California, which is definitely going to be a blue state. So when you win more voters in those states that are not swing state, it does not really matter in terms that it's stupid, but it doesn't really matter in terms of you becoming president of.

The United States.

So it is possible that a two point popular vote victory for Kamala Harris does amount to a narrow electoral college win, but it's man it's right on the bubble for her, assuming that these poles are accurate, which is.

A major assapsher exactly.

So look, everybody, I think the most important point that you just made was about movement within them. So if the assumptions were relatively the same and then you're moving away, that's not the best thing for you. And especially like you were just talking about with the popular vote, I can go ahead and pull that up and just take a look at it. So yeah, right now, Nate Silver has her at a d victory with two point eight percent of the popular vote. When things start to go a little bit underneath that or in a tie territory, that is when you get to that scenario. So it's not as big as it used to be. Let's also put a three please up on the screen because this was a really important point read alert for the Harris campaign. In the ABC poll out this morning, fifty nine percent of US adults state that the economy is getting worse, more than twice as many saying that it is getting better. Let's go to the next one, because CBS News also reflected this not only in the fifty one to forty eight but really also in the battleground at fifty to forty nine. Remember here that the margin of error is some two point three points. This is also important because this is actually a likely voter poll. It says Donald Trump is one point closer to Kamala nationally than last month, and the decisive battle grounds remain effectively even so even just puts you an error away from losing, and just generally one of the very difficult things about this election, and this is actually in the sprint to election day, there is not a single flagship, tent pole moment that will happen in the next twenty two days that is not controlled by the campaign, as in, there will be no debate, there will be no you know, there will be no major event that some sixty seventy million people are going to watch like traditionally, actually right around now in mid October is when that third debate usually happens on foreign policy, and then you have the sprint there. We're going to have some media style events, town halls, et cetera, but none of those will ever have the same reach. So actually, one of the reasons why Kamala is uniquely vulnerable in my opinion, is that the global system is very unstable right now with the Iran war situation, and you know, being tied to that, being tied to the status quo, and also just being tied to a general feeling of chaos in the world. If that were to really break through and take over the airwaves, that's very dangerous.

She's also uniquely, you know, has a problem.

Let's say that there is major movement in the stock market for reasons that have nothing to do with her or even with the you know, with the national policy.

It doesn't matter.

People are really going to make up their minds on election day. So you and I were talking in twenty sixteen, a decent part of the elector, especially in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke. I think it was like fourteen percent of people made up their minds just in the last couple of days before the election. It's not going to be that high. It was eight percent, and twenty twenty, let's say it's five. I mean five is the Martin victory. Actually, So for a lot of these peoples, you're really leaving yourself up to unique macro conditions of which you have no control whatsoever. And that is why, you know, this is really an issue where she's not even really banking on the economy anymore.

It's just all abortion all the time.

If you look at all of the swing state polls, and I think it's I think she's she's in a very vulnerable place.

I'm not saying she can't win.

She absolutely could, but if she does, I think it'll be very very narrow, especially compared to the Joe Biden victory or even Obama or you know, some of the like twenty twelve and two thousand and eight previously. So it's it really is tough. It's not I think the landscape is definitely not good for her right now.

Here's what I would say is that, do I think she would be doing better if she leaned into, you know, the top concern of voters, which is economics, on which she has popular policies. You know, I think you know, we had a whole debate about Trump's teariff policy, but her line about Trump's tax and really hammering home that his policy will raise prices for consumers. You know, do I think she would be doing better if she was hammering that every single day?

Absolutely, no doubt.

But I also have to say it's possible the campaign she's running will be enough, because it wasn't twenty twenty two, and I didn't think it would be. You know, this is effectively the campaign Democrats ran in twenty twenty two where they thought, hey, we can get together this you know, bipartisan anti Trump coalition and not really run on the economy at all. I mean they did not talk about the economy really at all in twenty twenty two, or Biden in twenty twenty for that matter, he did not run on specific policy proposals with regard to the economy in the general election in twenty twenty. So in twenty twenty two, you know, the playbook was a democracy abortion, They're extreme, and it was enough. It was enough to forestall a predicted red wave.

What the polls were all.

Showing at that point that economic numbers were far more dire than they are right now. I mean that was really at the peak of infleetion. You were just coming off of all of the unhappiness over COVID lockdowns and that whole fight. So the landscape in twenty twenty two was actually a lot worse in a lot of ways for Democrats than it is now. And the hey, abortion plus extremism message was sufficient to buck historical trends to you know, to win the Senate and to come very close actually in the House. So I can't say confidently that it won't work, that it won't be enough. It might It may well be enough. You know, Democrats did well. They lost in twenty sixteen, obviously, even though they you know, it's worth pointing out, they did win the popular vote there as well. But they did well in twenty eighteen, they did well in twenty twenty, they did well in twenty twenty two. So, you know, I think the the certitude that many have right now that Kamala Harris is one hundred percent got to lose. I just, you know, I just would have some humility about the predictions at this point because we've seen so many different iterations and polls be off in so many varied ways over the course of the past decade.

Very important, and you know, unlike, oh, I see so much poll triumphle at vism out there. Yeah, I am amazed by it. I'm like, how many of you were saying red wave back in twenty twenty two and you just look like an idiot after words, I mean, you have to do some serious soul searching. You know, I've been burned twenty sixteen, twenty sixteen, twenty twenty. In twenty and twenty two, those are like the three biggest polling errors I've seen just in my professional careers. Yeah, so, I have no idea how you could do this for a living and then tell people with a straight face that you're going to have the exact same polling air as you did in twenty sixteen twenty twenty.

Absolutely stupid.

You should unfollow anybody who is telling you that, let's put this on the screen too, because this is actually central too. Why I am so skeptical still and still remain in the fifty to fifty camp, Whereas if I didn't, I would just be like, Oh, I think Trump is going to win. Nate Silver talks here about how quote New York Times polls are betting on a political realignment. What he talks about, specifically is that the twenty twenty electorates substantively is very different than the twenty twenty two electorate, which dramatically swung independence towards Democrats. Key features of the twenty twenty two midterm race. Yes, I know it is different, but it has some interesting things that we need to carry over. Number One, mid terms had the same Republican advantage in terms of voter voter identification. More people identified as Republicans. However, didn't end up mattering why because independence broke dramatically for the Democrats. Number two, you have the same white and the same white college educated swing of these highly engaged voters who came out hard for the Democrats, donated a ton of money, had a ton of political enthusiasm at the same time that you saw the inklings of what happened in twenty twenty where you had Latino and black men specifically shift towards the Republicans, but it was not enough to put them over. So one of the reasons why the New York Times polls are so different than others is because they are not doing the same thing that many others are doing, which is trying to compose their polls as being exactly reflective of the twenty twenty electorate. That's why you see a lot of them in the way that they are and why the New York Times is so different. For example, on Florida. One of the reasons why I do kind of buy their thesis is Trump only won Florida by three points. What's he going to win it by this time? Minimum in my opinion six to eight, right, it could win it by fourteen. They have him up by plus thirteen. So if anything, I would bet on a Republican wave there. That is very important because that tells us that the same voter characteristics of twenty twenty two are going to try and carry over here.

And the country has changed so much.

I want everybody to try and to think about who you were in the year twenty twenties.

Sounds crazy, but you know, I was going to watch old old videos.

Myself is a different person, literally completely different, and even the way I talk and I look everything. Everybody's like that, especially in terms of your political evolution. Also in terms of this selection. You know, Logan made us such a great point most and the last time that we talked to him and he was like, you know, in twenty twenty is the last time is one of the only elections only since like when wars were involved where the government had a direct impact in everybody's lives, from state local, from vaccines to the bailouts.

There's so much stuff that was going on.

Yeah, now we're kind of things are a little bit different now, especially on the front in terms of people's expectations. And also Roe versus Wade was the political earthquake that changed things completely, needed to reshape the entire way that a lot of entire generation really, especially if women, but it's college educated men too, of the way they think about politics. So when I put all that together, I just can't bet on having the same electorate this last time around. It doesn't make any sense to me. So I am betting a little bit on this, you know, realignment, and I think it. I think come election day, we're going to see a major mistake by some polsters. Now I'm not saying Kama will win, because the realignment can go Trump way too. You've got him winning. We're about to talk with Nina Turner. Black voters by seventy eight percent. You know, in the past, if Democrats didn't win black voters by what is it, I think more than fifteen.

They're going to lose the entire national election.

But they made up a lot of white voters, so you could still definitely get your way there. But I just want people to really caution and think about how much things have changed in the last four years and why you really shouldn't look to the previous one.

I'm fairly persuaded by the Nate con analysis too, because it just makes more sense and it also helps to explain the of the variation between polsters as well. But like the New York Times pools so nationally, they found it effectively tied Pennsylvania. They had common with the four point lead, right, And you know, basically, Pennsylvania's the ball game effectively, That's what both campaigns think if you look at the likely tipping point state. I mean, just because it is such a swing state, and because it is so evenly divided, and because it has such a large number of Electoral College votes ascribed to it, Pennsylvania is effectively the ballgame. And what they're saying is that if you guys remember in the twenty twenty two midterms, overall, the red wave did not materialize, But there were a few exceptions Florida and New York in particular, and there may have been a few other states, but those were the two main ones that really shifted.

The red wave was there?

I mean, what did Dessantas won by double digits in Florida? All kinds of swing district Democrats were swept down in.

The state of New York.

In fact, if New York had performed for Democrats the way there rest the country did, Democrats actually would have gained control of the House. It's just because of the rudwave actually showed up there. And there are a lot of indications if you look at the congressional polling, the congressional level polling, that you're shaping up to a similar electoral phenomena where in New York. I think those you know, swing district Democrats.

In New York are in trouble.

I think in Florida, Trump is going to do very very well and exceed his past vote, But some of the other states don't necessarily look as clearly in that direction. You know, in in the same year when Ronda Santis wins Florida by double digits, John Fetterman won Pennsylvania by a very clear margin, and the governor of Pennsylvania, Shapiro, he won.

By double digits.

So, you know, if you think about not only where everybody is from a political ideology perspective, but if you also just think literally of where people live now, there was a huge migration during in post COVID that you know, hadn't shown up yet in twenty twenty, so even that makes things really different. The last thing I'll say is matticg Lysias made this point. I think it's one that's important to keep in mind in terms of the realities of the American electorate. It is still an overwhelmingly white electorate. So even if Republicans pick up you know, ten or fifteen points among black voters, if Democrats improve two points with white voters two points, then they still win.

So that's why you.

Should just have a lot of you know, a lot of humility as you're looking at these results. It could really go either way. Still, it is still very close. I think it's a very closely divided country, and you know, it's it's possible we get some new polling error that had not been foreseen previously. And I do think it's important to keep in mind that a lot of these polsters, because they're so terrified, understandably like, of getting it so wrong as they did in twenty twenty. Remember, there were polls coming out of Wisconsin was like Vine's gonna win by.

Sixteen points or whatever, seventeen points in the state of Wisconsin, right.

So they're terrified of that happening again. So effectively, what they've done is to cluge away that ties their polls very closely to what the result was in twenty twenty, so they won't get burned to the extent that they did last time. I think that does probably minimize the error, but that doesn't mean that they're getting it.

Right here, right, are exactly right?

Could underestimate Democrats as a lot of them did back in twenty twenty twenty.

Two, so we'll see.

It's a fund mental gain'd be interesting. It's also I mean, what I love about it is I just love the fact that America is still such a dynamic country. People can vote different four years ago, eight years ago, two years ago. It validates you know, everyone is always like, oh, nothing matters, everybody just votes exactly the same.

It's just not true.

You know, we're actually seeing a rise of more split ticket voters than ever before, which I think is a great thing, actually very healthy for the country. There are a ton of Mastriano Oz voters, sorry of Oz Shapiro voters who are out there. There are a lot of people out there who will vote for Donald J. Trump for president and will vote for Reuben Diego for senator.

There are a lot of people who.

Will vote for Bob Casey and for Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania. And I honestly I think that's good. I think it's a good thing no matter which way you know, these things all go, because that tells you you can't just take these people for granted.

All these like vote are people.

That was kind of the rule of politics from twenty ten onwards. We're really seeing the new rise of a lot of split ticket voters. Makes it much harder to predict. But in general, you know, people have to vote. People have to actually fight a little bit harder for your vote rather than assume, oh, these yogls are just going to come out and.

Pull the lever for me.

We're about to talk to Nina Turner may more about race and politics and what Obama had to say to black men in particular. But I also think it's very clear that like the Democratic assumption that black people could just be pan or two based on you know, their race and based on a civil rights Act that passed, you know, before either of us were born, right, parent, I'm not going to try to do the map in my head, because that'll just be embarrassing.

But you know that just playing.

To their racial identity would be sufficient, or that just playing to the racial identity of Latinos would be sufficient, and they were wrong about that. And you know, frankly, this is something we've been talking about for a long time.

It's like, you know, talk to talk.

About black voters or the black community or the Latino community really erases that these are just human beings, individuals with a variety of concerns that aren't really different from whatever my concerns are. Your concerns are, your concerns are, and so part of what we're seeing with this racial de alignment is really a rejection of that very surface level, very hollow, pandering style of identity politics. And you know, we'll see if Democrats ever learned that lesson.

All right, let's bring her in.

Very lucky to be joined this morning by the honorable Nina Turner, former campaign co chair for Bernie Sanders and founder of We Are Somebody.

Great to see my friends, Good to you, good.

To be here both of you. And I'm a low horse today, so apologies.

Well, your insights are what we always look for, and those will be sparkling as usual, I have no doubt. So Barack Obama hit the trail for Kamala Harris, and as part of that, he had a very direct message for black men voters in particular, Let's take a listen to a little bit of what you had to say.

We had not.

Yet seen the same kinds of energy and.

Turnout in all quarts of.

Our neighborhoods and to get usus so I was right.

Now, I also want.

To say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers. So if you don't mind, just for a second, I'm going to speak to yellow red. Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren't feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you're coming up with other alternatives.

And other reasons for it.

So now your.

Thinking about sitting out or even supporting somebody who has a history of detigrating you because you think that's a side of strength, because that's what being a mandas for women. Now that's not exciting.

So a senator, what did you make of this commentary from the former president?

I mean, CHRISTI it makes my skin crawl every time I hear it.

The president was.

Out of line, and I am saying this is someone that was a delegate for President Barack Obama in the great state of Ohio twice two thousand and eight and also on twenty twelve, who supported this president even though after his eight years, I am very disappointed when I look at him from a critical eye in terms of what happened and did not happen for the black community.

But for the president, for President.

Obama to admonish to publicly shame black men, it is wrong because when we look at every single male demographic in this country, when it comes to giving a woman an opportunity to be president, black men are number one in that. In twenty sixteen, Secretary Hillary Clinton enjoyed over eighty percent of the black man's vote, over eighty percent. You know how many votes you got from white men, thirty two percent. So if President Obama wants to lecture men in general about the fact that they're all socialized in a sexist society, then he can do that, but to single out black men to do like a public shaming of black men, and then to say as if they don't they have a choice, they can make a choice like black men have agency, like any other voter.

But to me, he made it seem like they.

Have to like they have an obligation to vote for Vice President Harris, and that is wrong. They have an obligation to vote their consciousness, and if they want to vote the other way, even though some of us may not like, it is their right to do.

Like anybody else, he wouldn't dare.

Try to shame white men Asian men air No other man would he come and step two like that. And I just want to I remember when Reverend Jesse Jackson, he made this statement, you know, a while ago, but he said President Obama talks down to black people.

And President Obama proved that point.

The numbers don't add up, and for him to come at black men like that, it just didn't makes it. And last point on this, it's really the antithesis of what Vice President Harris said. Because she was recently interviewed by the Black Journalists Association and they asked her a question and she, you know, just to sum up paraphrase, she said, I shouldn't assume that black men are going to vote for me. I have to earn their vote. And I'm paraphrasing her, but that was the right thing to say, and President Obama just came in and stepped all on top of that. And I've talked to black men. Black men have walked up to me. I'm getting dimned all over.

You know.

Even this morning, when I was at the gym, a young black man walked up to me to say, thank you, Senator Turner for standing up for us. The President has no idea how he is hurting black men because when he speaks, people listen. In some circles he's a deity, which I want. I'm here to tell people he's not. He's fallible, but you know, he has an extra burden that some other people do not have. And this shaming of black men then allows other people who do not have good instincts or good will towards the black community at large, to think that they can walk all over black men too.

Black men don't deserve this.

I'm glad you're saying that, and I think it's really important to just treat black man or any man or whatever like anybody else.

Let's put this up on the screen.

You know, from the New York Times, something that really struck out to me was quote, just sixty three percent of black voters and forty six percent of Hispanic voters said that quote keeps its promises is describes a Democratic Party better than the Republicans. And then similarly, if you look at the economic outlook, only twenty six percent of Black voters say that the current economic conditions are good or excellent. So if you put those two things together and people are let's say, drifting in the direction of Donald Trump, it just makes them like anybody else who is disillusioned with.

The overall Democratic Party.

So I want your reaction kind of to that specifically and about the outlook, especially on the moving away from the keeps its promises. When over half of these Black voters are saying the Democratic Party does not keep its promises, well, then shaming them makes it arguably even more disgusting to lecture them.

Absolutely, you hitting the nail on the head.

I just left the interview with Santitita Jackson, Reverend Jackson's daughter, as a matter of fact, where one of the panelists said that some of the backlash is because the black community does not feel like President Obama delivered.

You know, but the stats that.

You put up really identifies that voters from all demographics feel a certain type of way in this moment. It is not a vibe and it's not joy. I mean, you can't just simply say the word joy when over sixty percent of workers in this country say that they're living paycheck to paycheck.

You just can't say.

The word joy when the minimum wage has not been increased for well over a decade, when inflation is eating up any little games that people have had, and when people have to work, you know, two and three jobs just to make ends meet. When I was growing up, an extra job was really an extra job. Now an extra job is a necessity. So Saga, your point is that black voters, and if we single out black men, are really feeling the same pressures that any other voter is feeling. And as we criticize Republicans for calling Vice President Harris, you know, a dei, which is wrong, she is not. When President Obama talks to black men that way and he emphasizes theenotype race and or ethnicity in that way, you're making a scene like that, and it's just he is wrong.

He's out of step. And you know what, people forget.

Donald Trump was all the rage for the hip hop community, and he was all the rage for the political community too.

Let me let not let them off the hook. Because former President Donald J.

Trump got all the receipts, the donations that he has made, the pictures.

With these folks.

So how dare you, President Obama or anybody else try to shame the black community and black men in particular. And you know what I think, Crystal and Segar. If Vice President Harris loses, they're setting it up for black men to take the falls.

Right, Yeah, and it's wrong.

People want to know that you have a vision, to provide provision and to lift them up. They're sick and tired of hearing Donald Trump is the worst. If he is the worst, and I do believe that Donald Trump is a type of threat to democracy, but he's not the only threat to democracy. There are many things that threaten democracy, like not giving aid to the hurricane victims while we send them billions of dollars overseas.

That is a threat to democracy.

Not having a full fledged primary and locking people out that is a threat to democracy. There's all kinds of threats to democracy. He's one, but he's not the only one. And the Democrats are missing a perfect opportunity to show themselves to be different than the Republican Party. That's why that those data points are showing that way. People are frustrated and they tired of being lied to and played around with. This ain't a bide. This is people's This is life and death for some people.

That's right, that's right.

I'm just I mean, you guys know how I feel.

I love people, and I want to see elected officials do the right thing by the people of this country, and it's just not happening.

And black people feel the same way. So you can't shame you.

Know what, if you got to shame people, and I'm saying this as a if you have to as somebody who has served in an elected office, if you got to shame folks to get their vote, you've already lost.

Yeah, I agree.

No, that's that's such a great point, you know, and Saturn there, I was thinking this morning, and there was a another piece in the Times about this. You know, Democrats really had this very triumphulous view about how has the nation got more diverse? They would just naturally pick up voters, and you know, over time, as black and brown communities grew in the country and younger generations were more diverse, but effectively they could just sort of take them for granted and they would just march into their coalition. And they also really leaned into a politics that you and I have both criticized at times, which is a representation or identity only lens of progressivism that said, for example, that by electing the first black president, that this would automatically benefit the entirety of the black community. You know, with Latino voters, it was similar like, if we just focus on immigration alone and are more welcoming of immigrants, then you know, because you're Latino, that must be the key to your heart and you know the electoral paths of victory, and the exact opposite has happened. I mean, you have Donald Trump out here using rhetoric that I don't think it's unfair to describe as Nazi, ask about vermin and inciting a you know, campaign of hatriot against Haitian immigrants in a town in your home state there and doing all of these things, and yet at the very same time he's actually gaining ground.

With these groups.

So you know, what do you how do you explain and understand that trend and what would your message to Democrats be about Rather than shaming these voters how they could actually adjust and win people back in these communities.

That's it, Chris, So you said it, instead of shaming, prevent a vision that provides provision for the people in Springfield, Ohio, the Haitian community. You know that city has had to spend extra money to protect people because of what Senator JD.

Vance and President Donald J.

Trump is propagating against the Haitian community. The level of vitriolity he has against immigrants are putting people's lives in danger. So, yes, President Trump is a type of threat, There's no doubt about it. The Democratic Party, though, must stop focusing so much on what Donald J. Trump is doing and what they're going to do.

Donald J.

Trump is predictable. President Trump is predictable. People already know him. They know what he's gonna say, they know what he's going to do. So Democrats think that they think this is twenty twenty again, because that's pretty much how they won in twenty twenty. You know, the scare tactics against President Trump, that's not gonna work. That dog is not gonna hunt, as they say in Its South. That dog is not going to hunt this time. It is not just telling people about Project twenty twenty five, and what a threat it is.

It is.

But Democrats, where's your project twenty twenty five? Progressive's already laid out a plan for you to have a project twenty twenty five.

It's called Medicare for All. We're sixty three percent of voters in the swing states that Democrats are gonna need to win believe we should have medicare for all.

The war is a problem over worm, A majority of Democrats to believe that the weapons being given to Israel, even in the face of genocide, is a problem. Yet these people will not listen and answer to their own voters. So Crystal, my message to the Democratic Party would be focus on your message and your vision and why the voters of this country Black Americans are otherwise should vote for you. Why would you do things differently? Are you going to not listen to the corporate just wing the class.

Are you gonna do something different.

Or are you gonna keep playing the same games over and over again. People are tired of being lied to, Crystal. That is the bottom line of people's eyes are opening up, and it doesn't matter if they are color, it doesn't matter, you know what, how they identify the voters are suffering right now, and the failure of my party to recognize the suffering.

They covering it up, and they trying to.

Ram down people's throats that everything is okay. But when I came pay for my groceries, when I'm having a hard time putting gas in the tank, when I'm only getting seven hundred and fifty dollars for a hurricane that blew down on me in North Carolina or Georgia or Florida, when folks who have the power right now are taking their time.

See the felon of the Democratic Party is this. Donald J. Trump ain't in office right now.

Democrats are, and they had two years of control of both chambers and the presidency and did nothing spectacular with the power that they had.

People see that, and they know that, and they feel that.

But instead of my party being honest about it, they want to try to shame people. So my message is, stop listening to those people in the bubble and start listening to the people in the streets.

We'd be much better off.

Yeah, no doubt about it.

I wanted to get you quickly to weigh in on something else that's a very interesting development, which is that Democrats have now cut an ad against doctor Jill Stein, who of course is the Green Party nominee.

This is the first that they've really.

Paid any attention to her, and I think it's very interesting and potentially very revealing. So let's take a look at that ad and I'll get your thoughts on the other side.

Jill Stein, Green Party candidate for president. So why are Trump's close allies helping her? Stein was key to Trump's twenty sixteen wins in battleground states. She's not sorry she helped Trump win. That's why I vote for Stein. It's really a vote for Trump.

For Jill Stein.

I like her very much.

You know why she takes one hundred percent from them.

I'm Kamala Harris and I approve this message.

So I don't know how much money is behind this ad, So I don't know how widespread it is in circulation or how much it's just an internet ad, But to me, very noteworthy that they decided to cut this ad, and I think potentially very revealing of some concern, especially maybe in the state of Michigan, that people who are disgusted with the Biden Harris enabling of a on the side in Gaza are looking for a candidate who opposes that.

The Poland data shows it, Crystal doctor Stein is winning in the Arab American community in Michigan. That ad makes my skin crawl as well, because the people who want to vote for doctor Jill Stein we assuming that if doctor Stein was not on the ballot, that they would be voting for Democrats, and that's a wrong assumption. They're voting for doctor Jill Stein or the Green Party because the Green Party puts up a different message, a different platform, and a different vision for this country.

And yet it is very telling they must.

Be scared and to conflate her voter saying that she is helping Donald J. Trump when nothing can be further for the truth. Again, this is the United States of America. So I thought I was. I also thought that people have agency in their ability to vote. That's what I thought. But the Democrats, by this ad and how they also comported themselves in the primary by locking everybody out out of the primary, is showing that they themselves don't believe in small D democracy as they profess to. This is wrong and it takes away the agency of voters and it makes it seems like voters don't know what they want and what they're doing. You poor little voters, We're gonna tell you what to do and how to vote. It's just it's wrong. It's menacing what the Democratic Party is doing. And I'm really ashamed of my party would stoop to this level to say that anybody that doctor gill Stein and the Green Party is in any way enabling a president Donald J.

Trump.

If they want to talk about donations, let's talk about donations here.

When I ran for.

Congress, a lot of Republicans jumped into the special election in Cleveland, Ohio, in a solidly Democratic district and donated to my opponent. Okay, so don't don't don't bring it here when they talk about APAC money, APAC funds both Democrats and Republicans equal, So don't bring it here in terms of talking about doctor Stein and doctor Ware and the Green Party in this way.

I believe in democracy.

I am a Democrat, but I don't answer, I don't worship this party. Democracy is more important to me, and so them coming at doctor jill Stein shows and the Green Party shows how weak they are right now. And it is also the antithesis of what they say so now they can't chastise the Republicans anymore about being a threat to democracy, because what the Democratic Party is doing right now is a threat to democracy. Voters want choice in the United States of America. We should not just have a duopoly in the United States of America. And if they got better ideas, they certainly raising more money. Why are you suing to get people like doctor West off the ballot and suing to get people like doctor Stein and doctor Ware from the Green Party off the ballot? If my party is all that they certainly getting all the money, they get all the airplay on mainstream media.

So what y'all scared of?

Yeah, that the.

American people will see different choices and then they will make a different choice.

Couldn't agreement they we should compete straight up?

Yeah, you know, obviously they they don't feel that way.

The funny thing in doctor Stein pointed this out on Twitter is that while they're accusing her of like being supported by Republicans, Kamala hars is running around campaign with Liz Chaney and Towny her support.

These are.

That example, honor to have Dick Cheney endorsement campaign and with Senator Liz Cheney but progressors like us.

Oh no, no, oh no, I haven't seen that.

They rather have Republicans and the progressives.

That is very toning.

We see how, we see how it's working out for them. The voice movie Horse. But as always, the message comes through Ladin clear center, Nina Turner, Grace say you you.

Oh my god.

I appreciate you both so much and just love that you give opportunity for other voices that just don't walk the afine line.

You both know. I'm a lover of people.

I'm a lover of and I do believe that folks who have elected titles they owe the people that they serve to really lift them. And God knows people in this country really do need this right now.

Thank you both.

Great to see Ana too.

Bye bye.

Some interesting news out of a more recent interview between Donald Trump and the Nelk Boys, he says he is going to be doing the Joe Rogan Experience podcast.

Let's take a listen.

You're doing a lot of podcasts recently. One that I would love to see you on. Is I think Joe Rogan has to have you on?

Yeah?

Would you do that? Oh?

Sure, I would?

I think Joe like besides us Joe. Yeah, so you are going to do Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan is the best in the game for sure. And I think, you know, did.

Joe become so well known because of the UFC and he does a great job with it?

Right?

What was it that made Joe the best during COVID? You know, he was very outspoken on all the corruption going on during COVID, And I think that's personally when I started watching him a lot too. Just he's an honest guy.

Too, right he is.

So I think goody, good guy, and I think you guys together would.

Just got a good voice.

It's important.

You gotta love the NELK guys being like, besides us, he's the biggest come on bro. So I just can't get over that. That's incredible. That is such. That is a very inflated picture. I guess I'll just dove.

Yeah.

Also a little bit interesting that he said he was like, well in twenty twenty during COVID, that's when I became aware of him. I'm like, well, he was already the biggest podcast in the world in twenty nineteen.

But okay, I mean.

I do get the sense Trump really has no idea of this fear like he's he's you know, people in his world are like, oh, you should do this one, you should do that one. But I don't feel like he's himself consuming.

No.

Yeah, but here's very cable news.

Here's at least what I respect about Trump and his campaign, at least around this and especially with the candidate, because there's not enough politicians who can do this where he'll have staff where like or advisors. Dana White in particular, Dani's friends with the NELK guys. I'm assuming that's how a.

Lot of this happened.

But Daniell just be like, hey man, these are really big and Trump is like, oh really, and he's like okay. It's like one of those where he is fully aware that these are very influential and he understands that it has some major impact in terms of reaching people. The reason why we wanted to highlight this if it's true, By the way, I have no inside knowledge or anything.

I haven't asked Joe.

He had previously said he didn't necessarily want to have Trump on, not out of anything personal, but because he didn't want to have like the major political candidates.

Maybe he's changed his mind.

I know he's made some comments recently, He's like some things that I would like to ask Trump. He previously had Bernie Sanders on in the twenty sixteen or sorry, in the twenty twenty campaign.

But the reason why this is.

Important is it really does highlight the strategies both Trump and Harris. The call back to the Call Her Daddy appearance by Kamala Harris, let's put this up there on the screen from Axio Sarah Fisher, she's a really good media reporter, and she wrote this up, which is the podcast Become Politician Magnets, And what she highlights is just the obvious trend to probably anyone who's watching this show but hasn't yet sunk in for a lot of people, is just how much podcasts and specifically like shows like ours or a million others that are out there, have become the dominant consumption of not just political content, but of all content, and that that is the best way to reach people who are under the age of thirty five. So if you look within here, what they talk about is not only the Call Her Daddy appearance that Kamala did. And by the way, there was some really there was some stupid analyses done. They were like, Oh, look, Kamala Harris's Call Her Daddy appearance on YouTube wasn't that big. I'm like, guys, Call Her Daddy is predominantly an audio podcast. They get ten million listeners, the second largest podcast in the world behind Rogan would I would not diminish the influence of that, just from knowing the pop culture influence of it itself, the amount of merchcy sells and all the other stuff. But Trump, I mean, if you look at the other ones that he's done recently, between all In, Lex Reeman, THEO, Von Logan Paul, this is all a major young male strategy. And Rogan has talked about this before. He said, hiss like audience is like ninety something percent. Man, I'm willing to bet that's probably the same case for like Logan Paul, for THEOVON, for both of those. I mean, these are comedy podcasts. They're very like male Space. I don't think there's anything wrong with that, by the way, but it's just one of those what it shows you how in particular, if you think about the podcast demo and actually UFC is a good analogy to this. The UFC is not only like is it I wouldn't call it explicitly right wing, but it's got a very right wing audience. But if you ever been to a UFC fight, that's the multi racial or male.

Working class if you want, I'm serious, you'll look around. He's the people from all over the world.

Black, white, Hispanic, WWE's very much the same way. They have a huge black Latino fan base as well. Like that is what he's going for, and that's why, you know, part of the whole like black like Latino conversation that frustrates me is that they don't ever focus in on the gender gap. So actually, in that NBC poll that we led our show with, if you look at the crosstab, Trump's male numbers are the highest level since any candidate since Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty. The female number is actually like relatively static. It's more about movement within the female demographic in terms of like white men or a white females and you know, Latino females or whatever. But with men specifically across all races, especially with Latino and Black men, that is where the most movement is happening.

I mean Trump. I would not.

Put it past Trump to win nearly fifty percent of the Latino male vote in twenty twenty four. That is crazy compared to where it was in twenty sixteen. It was like roughly in the thirties. So that is how I see the podcast move more than anything. Both and the choices of them call her daddy. And then a lot of these male dominated pods like Milk Boys, you know, for example, who do you think is watching that?

You know? Right? Yeah?

No, Rogan is like, you know, the crown jewel of the bros Field.

Oh, absolutely so.

And he's it's interesting too, like if this is real, which, like you said, it hasn't been confirmed, and lord knows, Trump can make some shit up on the fly.

You never know, right, he did.

It check Joe not that long ago. Yeah, remember we covered it. He was like, he's like, Joe Rogan is a lightweight or something like that. He said that he gets booted, He's going to get booed at UFC.

Yeah, because what Joe said something critical of him and got in his feelings about it was something like he said, I.

Think he said I think Kamala is going to win that or maybe he.

Said she did a good job in the eight was that?

What what what I don't know anyway, so stupid.

But I mean it's also interesting because Joe previously did not want to interview Trump because he feels like I'm a comedian, like I don't know if I'm really the person to interview I'm not a journalist, right, And there's because this mode of politics has become more normalized, it's possible he feels more comfortable like, oh, well, if the freakin boys kind of interview him, like, you know, I could probably.

Do a better job than May.

At least I'll ask him something that might be a little bit challenging. But you know, it's it's no secret also why both Kamala and Trump and any other politician loves this realm because Kamala knows she can go on with Alex Cooper and call her daddy and just like, you know, not get asked a single difficult question. Trump knows damn well when you're sitting down with the Milk Boys that it's all going to be just like friendly banter and games.

And so.

You know, this is also part of a strategy to avoid really having any challenging questions. And I think it does post some difficult ethical issues for people who are comedians who are cultural figures like Alex Cooper, like Andrew Schultz or whatever. It's like, you know, it still remains that that ethical quandary of Okay, I'm not well studied in the Middle East, in the history of the Middle East and what's going on with this conflict.

I'm not well studying these areas.

Do I feel like it's a responsible thing for me to, you know, to interview this incredibly powerful person who is vying for the highest office in the land. And I do think it's a like, I think it's a tricky thing. I think it's a difficult thing. But the more that it becomes normal and you know, typical within a campaign. First of all, the more politicians are going to lean into it because it's nothing but a win for them. They get to go on and get asked softball questions and have clips that go viral and reach a demographic that's important to them. But and you know, it also obviously serves the interests of those podcasters who get to have a big guest and all the incentives are in the opposite direction of asking difficult questions and actually you know, challenging any of these political candidates.

Yeah, the good news is I think, I mean, Joe's had previous skepticism about that about having politicians on in the past, so and he actually can be a sleeper when he wants to be, like in terms of undercutting or be like what do you mean by that, and like really pressing. Some of his best like some of his best moments of deconstructing somebody really just come from like a very skeptical face and probing. So I would hope to see a little bit of that. But look, it gets to you should not be going into that being like expecting like a like an NBC News like Meet the Press interview. That's not what they're going for either. Stif it's literally is not a job. So yeah, I think it's a difficult question.

But like you said, you don't want to end up just being like a propaganda piece.

Like I think about this.

You know, if I get asked to go on Fox News because I said something critical of Democrats and they're like, just say that, don't say the thing that you know it is critical of Trump, and so you know, I'm leary in those situations of just getting used to make like a propaganda point for their own purposes. And so I think you have to be concerned about that as well, even if you are just like, you know, a cultural phenomenon like an Alex Cooper or whatever.

Because she did get just turned into like a propaganda piece with Kamala.

I think she's kind of fine with it. I think she is too.

But I mean, you know, that's that's what you did, girl, like you did an infomercial for Kamala Harris. Yeah, and maybe you're good with that, that's fine, but you know, I saw backlash even from her audience of like, yeah, we're super happy that that was the use.

Of the platform.

I don't disagree with you, I'd be Look, I think at this point he at least can see what the other people have either done right or wrong, what was the best strategy of feeling that strategy was the best one, and just treat him like a normal guest. And if he were Trump's superpower. In all interviews, he just talks, talks and talks. He likes to control the conversation, especially doesn't like like follow up questions or anything like that. I mean, look, this is his media training for years and years. He knows exactly what he's doing, so getting around that is going to be the most difficult thing that can be a plus or minus in a three and a half four hour podcast. So the time is actually probably the most important. One of the things that politicians do is they almost never agree to a three hour interview. They usually do like one hour. Trump can do a one hour interview all day long. I'vean interviewed Trump four times almost every single time was nearly one hour, and you know, trying to control that he knows exactly like when to allow a follow up or when not to, and it can be quite difficult, you know, to get in there. So time is going to be critical, asking like a follow up question or any of that. Something I think Joe and actually even Schultz and some of the other people like Lex and all those did is they asked something which Trump is not necessarily used to, and that's whenever you would get interesting answers. So for example, like Lex remember being like, so, how you know, what do you think about bringing people together?

And Trump was like, I'm not interested in that.

Basically, it's like yeah, and he's like, well, the left they're radical, was like, yeah, but what about bringing people to That's not even a question I would ask just because I would like to focus on policy. But I was like, you know, for a lot of people, the way they think about politics, and even if the way they think about Trump per se, they're like, that's probably something I don't really like about Trump. And so for him, whenever he gets asked about that and his answer, it can be quite revealing. That's kind of what I would expect to come out from from a Joe Rogan podcast with him, because you know, Rogan is always like, look, I'm not gonna you know, he's not he's not a technical expert or something. He tries to cut to the core of like what this person is all about. And I would be curious to see Trump in that in that spirit, especially whenever he can't necessarily rely on old tricks. And then it really it's up to Joe and how he wants to direct the conversation. Yeah, it'd be interesting.

And I mean, Joe likes to play dumb sometimes.

Yeah, but he's not.

He's not, you know, Joe is an intelligent, well read person who you know, has a lot of thoughts and ideas on a.

Variety of subjects.

I guess I would just say, as politicians find this terrain to be more fruitful for them and increasingly lean into it.

Over like traditional.

Media spaces, which makes all the sense in the world given the you know, direction of media's fears. It actually does put more of an onus on the podcast or to study up and think about what, you know, what issues actually impact people and ask them difficult questions since they're apparently the only ones who are going to have the opportunity to. Now the downside of that for them individually is that means they'll never.

Get to get that interview again.

But you know, is that really the end of the world, Because I think no matter who you are, whether you're a comedian or cultural figure, or a singer or a lifestyle wellness guru or whatever the hell you're doing right, you still have if you accept that interview, you still have some responsibility to try to probe what are the actual positions of this individual, What is the way this individual actually thinks. You don't just get to get out of jail free pass because you are not a journalist. You're a sentient human being, are obviously intelligent enough to have, you know, created this successful platform. And so I do think because they're leaning more into this strategy. It creates more of a responsibility on these podcasters to try to rise to.

Be Well, that's the funny part. I remember him saying that in the past. He's like, I don't want to do it because I don't want the responsibility.

He was like, I never wanted to be.

In a position where I had to be like checking people's facts and making sure that what's saying somebody is not true.

He's like, we used to just smoke weed and get.

Drunk on his podcast and talk shit, and eventually it became like a platform source.

So I totally understand where he's coming from.

And if he doesn't even want to do it, I get that too, especially in the position that he's in. I mean, you think about he got see and running articles about you and all this other stuff, Like that's a nightmare, especially from what I mean, what he wants to do is do a show, and he's got an amazing club and he just wants to go to everyone.

And hang out with his friends. I totally sympathize with that.

So well, see, I'm curious, as you said, Trump could just be talking. He could be like mouthing off for what he wants and at this point, he's done a decent number of these rogans fear type interviews, so we'll see if we'll see if it happens. Yeah, I also want to see the time thing. That's actually probably the most important.

Right does he give those does he give him the full three hours or at least two and.

A half you know long?

Yeah? Yeah, I think Bernie.

I want to say Bernie was like two and a half, that's my guess it was.

It was actually one oh seven.

Wow.

Really sure?

That is sure? Yeah, that's too sure.

Yeah, I guess. The last thing I'll say is this has been a very concerted strategy, especially from the Trump campaign. Like Kamala has done some of these things, but this has been a more concerted strategy from the Trump campaign, and it really is targeted at young men, which are some of the least frequent voters literally, so you know, they're they're betting a lot on turning out a group of voters, and they're betting more on this strategy than they are like a traditional field strategy in that, you know, typical campaign like we're going to have offices all over the state and we're going to go and knock on your door and whatever.

They're leaning more into this.

In some ways, they have to because they don't have nearly as much money as the Harris campaign does.

But also I think it.

Is a tactical belief that this is more effective at this point than that traditional door knocking campaign, And you know, there may.

Be something to that.

They may be correct about that, and they certainly see these as like friendly spaces with people are potentially to open to him.

So you know, we're going to find out.

If those infrequent male voters, young male voters do in fact turn out for him on election day, because he's betting.

A lot on that.

Yeah, it's very much a dude's rock campaign and I'm curious to see if it works.