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Good morning and welcome to Counterpoints. Emily. Really big show today, really big show.

Good morning and welcome to Counterpoints. Emily. Really big show today, really big show.

Also, we've had nothing but crazy news cycles for the past six plus months. This is one of the craziest news cycles. So many hearings. Yeah, just today, I mean Rubio Pambondi, John Ratcliffe, Chris Right, Sean Duffy, it's just absolutely stuffed. Yesterday with Pete Heigsath. We have the TikTok band covering here on the show. Today, Huge news and you guys at Breaking Points had a great scoop on what's going on with the ceasefire negotiations.

Also, we've had nothing but crazy news cycles for the past six plus months. This is one of the craziest news cycles. So many hearings. Yeah, just today, I mean Rubio Pambondi, John Ratcliffe, Chris Right, Sean Duffy, it's just absolutely stuffed. Yesterday with Pete Heigsath. We have the TikTok band covering here on the show. Today, Huge news and you guys at Breaking Points had a great scoop on what's going on with the ceasefire negotiations.

Yeah, I was just thinking, I really do hope that Sager's alien invasion holds off because I want to see how the next four years plays out.

Yeah, I was just thinking, I really do hope that Sager's alien invasion holds off because I want to see how the next four years plays out.

You're curiously, I really am.

You're curiously, I really am.

Yeah, and you can't read the last page of the book First Life.

Yeah, and you can't read the last page of the book First Life.

It's going to be interesting, and I'm curious what would happen in the event of an alien invasion too, obviously, but we can get that later. Like, I want to see this whole thing because to your point, the Donald Trump I was gonna about say the Trump administration, but Donald Trump and his kind of real estate tycoon that he assigned to create a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is on the brink of pulling off. We're going to talk to Jeremy Skahill in just a moment, who's been in contact with a lot of people involved in this, so he's gonna he's gonna break down what the deal actually looks like and how we got to this place.

It's going to be interesting, and I'm curious what would happen in the event of an alien invasion too, obviously, but we can get that later. Like, I want to see this whole thing because to your point, the Donald Trump I was gonna about say the Trump administration, but Donald Trump and his kind of real estate tycoon that he assigned to create a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is on the brink of pulling off. We're going to talk to Jeremy Skahill in just a moment, who's been in contact with a lot of people involved in this, so he's gonna he's gonna break down what the deal actually looks like and how we got to this place.

But quite quite incredible. I still stand by my prediction.

But quite quite incredible. I still stand by my prediction.

That is going to drag this all the way out to the nineteenth Yes to ink the like final details. Hope I'm wrong, but overnight, Israel was ramping up air strikes all across Gaza. There was video that emerged from Unicarawi of them blowing up a mosque in northern Gaza yesterday, just kind of because they can. And there's a couple of days left until they signed the thing, but we're getting very close.

That is going to drag this all the way out to the nineteenth Yes to ink the like final details. Hope I'm wrong, but overnight, Israel was ramping up air strikes all across Gaza. There was video that emerged from Unicarawi of them blowing up a mosque in northern Gaza yesterday, just kind of because they can. And there's a couple of days left until they signed the thing, but we're getting very close.

So we're going to start with that news. We're going to run down the Heggsath hearing from yesterday, do an update.

So we're going to start with that news. We're going to run down the Heggsath hearing from yesterday, do an update.

On wild one.

On wild one.

It was a wild one, although by Trump era standards you have sort of medium medium insanity. We'll do an update on a crazy story about landlords in the Los Angeles area. We'll talk about the migration from TikTok to Red Note. And we actually have a Prince, professor of astrophysics joining the show today to talk about how Donald Trump could potentially set us so up for a Nobel Peace.

It was a wild one, although by Trump era standards you have sort of medium medium insanity. We'll do an update on a crazy story about landlords in the Los Angeles area. We'll talk about the migration from TikTok to Red Note. And we actually have a Prince, professor of astrophysics joining the show today to talk about how Donald Trump could potentially set us so up for a Nobel Peace.

Prize reado Peace Prizes.

Prize reado Peace Prizes.

He wrote this essay for Fox News before Trump kind of slammed a ceasefire on Israel, which, frankly, in another kind of world, could generate a Nobel Peace Prize for an American president. Donald Trump has a steeper hill to climb to win that prize because he's Donald Trump, and it's ludicrous to consider him getting a Nobel Peace Prize. But he lays out, you know how, over the next four years he's actually set up to resolve three major sources of conflict and could legitimately deserve if he pulled that off, three Nobel Peace prizes.

He wrote this essay for Fox News before Trump kind of slammed a ceasefire on Israel, which, frankly, in another kind of world, could generate a Nobel Peace Prize for an American president. Donald Trump has a steeper hill to climb to win that prize because he's Donald Trump, and it's ludicrous to consider him getting a Nobel Peace Prize. But he lays out, you know how, over the next four years he's actually set up to resolve three major sources of conflict and could legitimately deserve if he pulled that off, three Nobel Peace prizes.

And potentially take us a little bit further from the brink, to the extent that we possibly can be of.

And potentially take us a little bit further from the brink, to the extent that we possibly can be of.

I'd like to pull back from the brank free.

I'd like to pull back from the brank free.

Yeses Iranian president is giving interviews to American media and VC News in particular, so we will have updates on all of that. As a reminder, Breakingpoints dot com that's where you can get a premium subscription and Ryan, if you can't get a premium.

Yeses Iranian president is giving interviews to American media and VC News in particular, so we will have updates on all of that. As a reminder, Breakingpoints dot com that's where you can get a premium subscription and Ryan, if you can't get a premium.

Subcurity like and subscribe, you tell your friends share it. It helps you flip it and put it on social because we don't really do that.

Subcurity like and subscribe, you tell your friends share it. It helps you flip it and put it on social because we don't really do that.

Yeah, that's true. Shout out to Hull. Yes, I'm told we have Jeremy scahe you're calling it dropsite on the line here to help us break down the huge news about there.

Yeah, that's true. Shout out to Hull. Yes, I'm told we have Jeremy scahe you're calling it dropsite on the line here to help us break down the huge news about there.

Let's bring Jeremy in. Jeremy, how you doing.

Let's bring Jeremy in. Jeremy, how you doing.

All right? You know, pins and needles, hoping that this goes through.

All right? You know, pins and needles, hoping that this goes through.

Yeah, so let's actually let's start back in May to bring people up to up to speed here.

Yeah, so let's actually let's start back in May to bring people up to up to speed here.

So May May of twenty twenty four, that was the.

So May May of twenty twenty four, that was the.

Maybe the first time since the November twenty twenty three exchange of prisoners between Israel and Masha there was that one week ceasefire. What happens in what happens in May and what has what has kind of changed since then that got us to this place.

Maybe the first time since the November twenty twenty three exchange of prisoners between Israel and Masha there was that one week ceasefire. What happens in what happens in May and what has what has kind of changed since then that got us to this place.

Well, in May, Joe Biden comes out publicly and says that he's reached what he called the monumental point in the seasfire negotiation and that he has gotten assurances from Is that they'll move forward with a deal and the basic outlines of it are almost identical to what is now being negotiated. That's the first thing that should should just be put on the table they move forward. Then they get the United Nations Security Council to officially endorse this what they called the Biden Framework, But actually many of the tenets of it came from this sort of backdoor discussions between Anthony blinkln Brett McGirk, Bill Burns, the director of the CIA, and the Israelis to make sure that when Biden goes out and says, hey, this thing is monumental, that it wasn't going to like blow up in the White House's face. Well, lo and behold. Then Hamas is presented with these terms. There's the back and forth that always happens in these which is at the technical level. So when you hear people saying, oh, Israel accepted this or Hamas accepted this, what they're talking about usually is they've accepted the broad framework. And then where the real sort of problems start to occur, as when you start talking about technical details. For instance, you know, as of this morning, there were still there was still back and forth going on in Doha over a number of technical issues. The Israelis didn't provide maps to the Palestinian side showing where their forces would be withdrawn from and where they would be repositioned. And the Palestinians are concerned that if they leave any vagueness, the Israelis are going to exploit it. So I just give that as like one example. So you have technical issues, and all indications are that these issues right now are being resolved, but going back to over the summer, they then get to that phase of it where you normally would be discussing like implementation, and then the Israelis start to put in what Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad negotiators said totally new terms that had to do with the Israelis wanting to remain in Rafa, to keep control of the Philadelphi corridor, to keep control of the net Serene corridor. So Hamas is saying, wait, wait a minute, we agreed to what Biden said was a monumental framework that the United Nations endorse. We now need more time, and then they start the narrative, Oh, Hamas refuses to accept the deal. Well, then what happens is you have this back and forth where the Americans come back to the Arab mediators who say to Hamas, listen, would you accept this phrasing in the deal that the Americans have said Israel will accept if you guys do. Hamas then deliberates on it, and then on July second, Hamas officially informs the mediators from Qatar and Egypt, yes, we will accept the American amended ceasefire proposal. The Americans then go back to Israel and Nenya, who says no, no, no, no no. The circumstances have changed, and then what happens is you have this string of assassinations where Israel assassinates Ismail Hania, the top negotiator for Hamas, and they do it in Tehran at a guesthouse that's controlled by the most elite military force in Iran. You then have the the pager bomb plum, the pager bomb plot in Lebanon, the wiping out of not only the senior echelons of Hesbalab but also Hassan Nosrela. Then you have the bombings of Iran, the Iranians attacking Israel, the fall of the regime in Syria, which Netanyahu took credit for. And so basically what happened then Ryan last summer was that Biden goes out in front of the world. He says, hey, we're on the brink of something here. The Israelis just shove it in his face, turn around and then escalate the war even further, and Biden rewards them, not punishes them, rewards them by showering billions of dollars more in US weapons on them and then openly endorsing the Israelis setting fire to the Middle East. And basically there's been no discussion of a ceasefire since then until Donald Trump. First of all, he campaigns, you know, sort of to the left of Kamala Harris in some ways on this issue. It was a little bit contradictory because on the one hand, you have you know, Trump saying there's never been a more pro Israel president or candidate in American history, and he wants Netanyahu to finish the job. On the other hand, he does what the Democrats were doing. He goes and he meets with a ton of Arab political and religious and civic leaders, including in Michigan where you had this uncommitted movement where many logical Democratic voters were begging the Harris campaign to pay attention to them, and many many Arabs in the United States felt like they were just being kind of spat upon by the Democrats. And so whatever you think about Donald Trump's efforts, there was an actual effort there. Trump then wins the election and he starts saying things like there's going to be hell to pay if there's not a deal. Now, much of the reporting on that was you know, sort of spun as he's threatening Hamas that some you know, unknown horror is going to you know, befall Hamas. First of all, what worse could possibly happen to the Palestinian people of Gaza right now? I mean, this is a way of letting Joe Biden off the hook because this has been a scorched earth genocide. But if you really paid attention, what Trump was doing was saying not just to Hamas, this needs to get done, but also to Israel. And you know, there's a lot of people make fun of the people that Trump chooses for his positions, but you know, Trump is choosing people that he believes can quote unquote make a deal. So he taps Steve Whitkoff to be his Special Envoy to the Middle East, who is kind of a fellow real estate tycoon. And you know, by all accounts, what has occurred is that for his own reasons, Trump has made it very clear to the Israelis that a deal needs to be done in time for his inauguration. We can talk about what Trump's motivations might be here, but Trump is showing that the power of the office of the Presidency is vast, and it exposes the fact that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris systematically refused to ever take any actions, and there are many they could have taken to force a c fire. The US has enormous power and influence over Israel, and Joe Biden partially for his own ideological support of Israel and partially because these guys just got rickrolled by Netanyahu just never did it bed rolled.

Well, in May, Joe Biden comes out publicly and says that he's reached what he called the monumental point in the seasfire negotiation and that he has gotten assurances from Is that they'll move forward with a deal and the basic outlines of it are almost identical to what is now being negotiated. That's the first thing that should should just be put on the table they move forward. Then they get the United Nations Security Council to officially endorse this what they called the Biden Framework, But actually many of the tenets of it came from this sort of backdoor discussions between Anthony blinkln Brett McGirk, Bill Burns, the director of the CIA, and the Israelis to make sure that when Biden goes out and says, hey, this thing is monumental, that it wasn't going to like blow up in the White House's face. Well, lo and behold. Then Hamas is presented with these terms. There's the back and forth that always happens in these which is at the technical level. So when you hear people saying, oh, Israel accepted this or Hamas accepted this, what they're talking about usually is they've accepted the broad framework. And then where the real sort of problems start to occur, as when you start talking about technical details. For instance, you know, as of this morning, there were still there was still back and forth going on in Doha over a number of technical issues. The Israelis didn't provide maps to the Palestinian side showing where their forces would be withdrawn from and where they would be repositioned. And the Palestinians are concerned that if they leave any vagueness, the Israelis are going to exploit it. So I just give that as like one example. So you have technical issues, and all indications are that these issues right now are being resolved, but going back to over the summer, they then get to that phase of it where you normally would be discussing like implementation, and then the Israelis start to put in what Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad negotiators said totally new terms that had to do with the Israelis wanting to remain in Rafa, to keep control of the Philadelphi corridor, to keep control of the net Serene corridor. So Hamas is saying, wait, wait a minute, we agreed to what Biden said was a monumental framework that the United Nations endorse. We now need more time, and then they start the narrative, Oh, Hamas refuses to accept the deal. Well, then what happens is you have this back and forth where the Americans come back to the Arab mediators who say to Hamas, listen, would you accept this phrasing in the deal that the Americans have said Israel will accept if you guys do. Hamas then deliberates on it, and then on July second, Hamas officially informs the mediators from Qatar and Egypt, yes, we will accept the American amended ceasefire proposal. The Americans then go back to Israel and Nenya, who says no, no, no, no no. The circumstances have changed, and then what happens is you have this string of assassinations where Israel assassinates Ismail Hania, the top negotiator for Hamas, and they do it in Tehran at a guesthouse that's controlled by the most elite military force in Iran. You then have the the pager bomb plum, the pager bomb plot in Lebanon, the wiping out of not only the senior echelons of Hesbalab but also Hassan Nosrela. Then you have the bombings of Iran, the Iranians attacking Israel, the fall of the regime in Syria, which Netanyahu took credit for. And so basically what happened then Ryan last summer was that Biden goes out in front of the world. He says, hey, we're on the brink of something here. The Israelis just shove it in his face, turn around and then escalate the war even further, and Biden rewards them, not punishes them, rewards them by showering billions of dollars more in US weapons on them and then openly endorsing the Israelis setting fire to the Middle East. And basically there's been no discussion of a ceasefire since then until Donald Trump. First of all, he campaigns, you know, sort of to the left of Kamala Harris in some ways on this issue. It was a little bit contradictory because on the one hand, you have you know, Trump saying there's never been a more pro Israel president or candidate in American history, and he wants Netanyahu to finish the job. On the other hand, he does what the Democrats were doing. He goes and he meets with a ton of Arab political and religious and civic leaders, including in Michigan where you had this uncommitted movement where many logical Democratic voters were begging the Harris campaign to pay attention to them, and many many Arabs in the United States felt like they were just being kind of spat upon by the Democrats. And so whatever you think about Donald Trump's efforts, there was an actual effort there. Trump then wins the election and he starts saying things like there's going to be hell to pay if there's not a deal. Now, much of the reporting on that was you know, sort of spun as he's threatening Hamas that some you know, unknown horror is going to you know, befall Hamas. First of all, what worse could possibly happen to the Palestinian people of Gaza right now? I mean, this is a way of letting Joe Biden off the hook because this has been a scorched earth genocide. But if you really paid attention, what Trump was doing was saying not just to Hamas, this needs to get done, but also to Israel. And you know, there's a lot of people make fun of the people that Trump chooses for his positions, but you know, Trump is choosing people that he believes can quote unquote make a deal. So he taps Steve Whitkoff to be his Special Envoy to the Middle East, who is kind of a fellow real estate tycoon. And you know, by all accounts, what has occurred is that for his own reasons, Trump has made it very clear to the Israelis that a deal needs to be done in time for his inauguration. We can talk about what Trump's motivations might be here, but Trump is showing that the power of the office of the Presidency is vast, and it exposes the fact that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris systematically refused to ever take any actions, and there are many they could have taken to force a c fire. The US has enormous power and influence over Israel, and Joe Biden partially for his own ideological support of Israel and partially because these guys just got rickrolled by Netanyahu just never did it bed rolled.

So let's put up a one because this obviously brings us to today. Israel and Hamas agree in principle as CBS News puts it to ceasefire and hostage deal. You guys reported that at drop site as well, and this is what we're here to talk about. But if we move on to a two Reuters flashes out some of the bullet points of the ceasefire deal in ways that I know Jeremy and Ryan both can help us break down a little bit troop withdrawal, increased aid, future governance of Gaza. So what can both of you hostage return obviously as part of that. So what can both of you tell us about for what's actually part of this tug of war? What's on the table right now? And how could it go wrong in the same way that Jeremy, we saw it, as you mentioned, go wrong back in the summer.

So let's put up a one because this obviously brings us to today. Israel and Hamas agree in principle as CBS News puts it to ceasefire and hostage deal. You guys reported that at drop site as well, and this is what we're here to talk about. But if we move on to a two Reuters flashes out some of the bullet points of the ceasefire deal in ways that I know Jeremy and Ryan both can help us break down a little bit troop withdrawal, increased aid, future governance of Gaza. So what can both of you hostage return obviously as part of that. So what can both of you tell us about for what's actually part of this tug of war? What's on the table right now? And how could it go wrong in the same way that Jeremy, we saw it, as you mentioned, go wrong back in the summer.

So you know, this is structured as a three phase deal. Each of the phases are envisioned to be forty two days. The first phase of this emily would be the exchange of thirty three captives and hostages held in Gaza right now that are categorized as being in humanitarian releases. So this would be anyone under the age of nineteen, including you know, there are a couple of very small children that are still being held in Gaza, and we understand that the first three hostages that would be released in this exchange of captives would be the members of the Bebas family. People may remember that there was a nine month old baby, Kafir Bebas, who was taken from the kibbutz of near Oz on October seventh, along with his brother Ariel and the mother and father. And so the mother and those two children are widely believed to be the first three people that are going to be handed over. And then they've created a mathematical formula for each Israeli civilian, a certain number of Palestinian prisoners or captives are going to be released. You know, Israel still holding several hundred children minors in their custody. You know, we talk a lot about Israeli hostages. There are Palestinian hostages, you know, in the dozens and hundreds being held by Israel right now. Also there are going to be There are five female Israeli soldiers that are being held in Gaza, and the numbers start to increase in terms of the number of Palestinians that will be freed from Israeli prisons in return for any military figures. So the first round would include only these five female Israeli hostages or prisoners, and then you have also older people or sick people. This first phase would have what's called the temporary cessation of hostilities, meaning that there would be a ceasing of fire, but this is not a permanent ceasefire. And two weeks into this exchange where you would have a sort of in phases, Israelis and internationals being held in Gaza being released and then Palestinians being released as well. Two weeks into it, you then start to have discussions about the mechanism for implementing the second phase, and the second phase would start to increase the number of captives that are exchanged between the two sides. And it's in this phase where the draft agreement calls for an actual ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces. In that first phase, you'll start to have some pullback of the Israelis. There is still debate over kind of what kind of buffer zone is going to exist. The Israeli game, though, seems to be and this is certainly what people like Ben Gavie and Smotrich are openly saying, but it's also quite mainstream, is that the Israelis are approaching this from let's just view this as we're making a deal over phase one. Yes, Trump is telling us we need to have this more comprehensive agreement, but wink, wink, nod, nod. We know that it's very easy to say Humas violated this and we're back into the game. So the Palestinian negotiators I'm dealing with, they're very well aware of this, and this is part of why they're insisting on like really exact maps from the Israelis, really exact timeline, so that they can go back to the mediators and say, you know, this is a violation by Israel. And then the final phase has to do with reconstruction and who would govern Gaza. But a lot of people aren't even so focused on that right now. You know, for Palestinian people of Gaza, they need this to stop. And you know, we know that at least forty six thousand Palestinians have been killed. Those numbers are almost certainly a massive undercount, so you know, people are desperate. We're hearing this from our reporters on the ground inside of Gaza. It's a horror show that's happening. And Israel has a long history of really intensifying the attacks against Gaza before any kind of a deal is made. So that's sort of where things stand right now. But I don't think we can understate the role that Donald Trump's posture has played in the timing of this.

So you know, this is structured as a three phase deal. Each of the phases are envisioned to be forty two days. The first phase of this emily would be the exchange of thirty three captives and hostages held in Gaza right now that are categorized as being in humanitarian releases. So this would be anyone under the age of nineteen, including you know, there are a couple of very small children that are still being held in Gaza, and we understand that the first three hostages that would be released in this exchange of captives would be the members of the Bebas family. People may remember that there was a nine month old baby, Kafir Bebas, who was taken from the kibbutz of near Oz on October seventh, along with his brother Ariel and the mother and father. And so the mother and those two children are widely believed to be the first three people that are going to be handed over. And then they've created a mathematical formula for each Israeli civilian, a certain number of Palestinian prisoners or captives are going to be released. You know, Israel still holding several hundred children minors in their custody. You know, we talk a lot about Israeli hostages. There are Palestinian hostages, you know, in the dozens and hundreds being held by Israel right now. Also there are going to be There are five female Israeli soldiers that are being held in Gaza, and the numbers start to increase in terms of the number of Palestinians that will be freed from Israeli prisons in return for any military figures. So the first round would include only these five female Israeli hostages or prisoners, and then you have also older people or sick people. This first phase would have what's called the temporary cessation of hostilities, meaning that there would be a ceasing of fire, but this is not a permanent ceasefire. And two weeks into this exchange where you would have a sort of in phases, Israelis and internationals being held in Gaza being released and then Palestinians being released as well. Two weeks into it, you then start to have discussions about the mechanism for implementing the second phase, and the second phase would start to increase the number of captives that are exchanged between the two sides. And it's in this phase where the draft agreement calls for an actual ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces. In that first phase, you'll start to have some pullback of the Israelis. There is still debate over kind of what kind of buffer zone is going to exist. The Israeli game, though, seems to be and this is certainly what people like Ben Gavie and Smotrich are openly saying, but it's also quite mainstream, is that the Israelis are approaching this from let's just view this as we're making a deal over phase one. Yes, Trump is telling us we need to have this more comprehensive agreement, but wink, wink, nod, nod. We know that it's very easy to say Humas violated this and we're back into the game. So the Palestinian negotiators I'm dealing with, they're very well aware of this, and this is part of why they're insisting on like really exact maps from the Israelis, really exact timeline, so that they can go back to the mediators and say, you know, this is a violation by Israel. And then the final phase has to do with reconstruction and who would govern Gaza. But a lot of people aren't even so focused on that right now. You know, for Palestinian people of Gaza, they need this to stop. And you know, we know that at least forty six thousand Palestinians have been killed. Those numbers are almost certainly a massive undercount, so you know, people are desperate. We're hearing this from our reporters on the ground inside of Gaza. It's a horror show that's happening. And Israel has a long history of really intensifying the attacks against Gaza before any kind of a deal is made. So that's sort of where things stand right now. But I don't think we can understate the role that Donald Trump's posture has played in the timing of this.

It's it is.

It's it is.

If this gets pulled off, the timing will be almost entirely a result not of Joe Biden's supposed tireless work around the clock, but of Donald Trump basically saying it is over. And you know, maybe it's over for a few weeks, but you know it's going to be over at some point for some period of time, and it's largely going to because of Trump's intervention.

If this gets pulled off, the timing will be almost entirely a result not of Joe Biden's supposed tireless work around the clock, but of Donald Trump basically saying it is over. And you know, maybe it's over for a few weeks, but you know it's going to be over at some point for some period of time, and it's largely going to because of Trump's intervention.

And you don't have to take that from us.

And you don't have to take that from us.

You can take that from Israeli media and Israeli politicians, and to you to your point about Ben Gavie, we could put up a three here. There is this remarkable moment where on Monday the was Anthony Blanken was giving a speech saying that we're all just sitting around here waiting for Hamas to accept the deal. After Hamas had publicly accepted the basically accepted the framework. Meanwhile, I've got Ben Gavere here, who on in a post and also in a speech that he posts to Twitter, said very openly and it admitted that over the past year and a half he and his political forces had scuttled, you know, many many hostage deals by using their political power to block those deals. It was kind of a remarkable split screen where you have Blincoln just you can't tell if he's just a kind of confused old man with dementia who's just kind of repeating what he's been saying. You know, historically it was never true before when he was saying it as you laid out, but it was so flagrantly a lie on Monday when you to have the entire Israeli media on the right and people like Ben Gavern's Mochriz saying this is a horrible deal. It's being forced on us, while at the same time Blincoln saying it's a Hamas that won't take the deal.

You can take that from Israeli media and Israeli politicians, and to you to your point about Ben Gavie, we could put up a three here. There is this remarkable moment where on Monday the was Anthony Blanken was giving a speech saying that we're all just sitting around here waiting for Hamas to accept the deal. After Hamas had publicly accepted the basically accepted the framework. Meanwhile, I've got Ben Gavere here, who on in a post and also in a speech that he posts to Twitter, said very openly and it admitted that over the past year and a half he and his political forces had scuttled, you know, many many hostage deals by using their political power to block those deals. It was kind of a remarkable split screen where you have Blincoln just you can't tell if he's just a kind of confused old man with dementia who's just kind of repeating what he's been saying. You know, historically it was never true before when he was saying it as you laid out, but it was so flagrantly a lie on Monday when you to have the entire Israeli media on the right and people like Ben Gavern's Mochriz saying this is a horrible deal. It's being forced on us, while at the same time Blincoln saying it's a Hamas that won't take the deal.

What do you draw, how.

What do you draw, how.

Would you characterize the as kind of Israeli media response and what conclusions can you draw?

Would you characterize the as kind of Israeli media response and what conclusions can you draw?

And before Germany you answer that, Let's roll this clip of blinken.

And before Germany you answer that, Let's roll this clip of blinken.

This is a yes, people can hear what he says.

This is a yes, people can hear what he says.

We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it is lost. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war. The longer the war goes on, the worse the Umani Tran situation gets in.

We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it is lost. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war. The longer the war goes on, the worse the Umani Tran situation gets in.

Gozen, right, and there's blink and saying that they have not accomplished anything.

Gozen, right, and there's blink and saying that they have not accomplished anything.

Go ahead, Yeah, I.

Go ahead, Yeah, I.

Mean, first just to take you know what Blincoln just said there, and then I'll trust the ben Gever part of this. You know, this is counterinsurgency, you know history one oh one. I mean, if you put people in an open air prison camp, if you deprive them of the right to nonviolent resistance, if you deprive them of food and put them on a calorie restricted diet, which the Israelis have done. If you dehumanize them, kill their parents, repeatedly tell them that there's no such thing as a Palestinian, you're going to leave the only option available to people who believe in fighting for their dignity to take up arms against their occupier or the colonial power that's invading them. So, you know, we could have told Anthony blinkn that this would happen on October sixth if they don't stop this policy that you're going and it's and by the way, it's not just that people are like joining Hamas. What we're talking about here is people deciding that they're going to be part of the armed resistance against what they put what they very clearly view as a brutal, gratuitous colonial occupying power backed by the United States and other major Western powers. So you know, Anthony Blinkin is going to be like for years to come, waking up in the morning going to his mirror and saying it's up to Hamas. Now, I mean, he's got some weird tick where he's just constantly lying about that dimension of this. And we could talk about, you know, blinkn A as a kind of neo Kissinger at some point. But to get back to Ben Gavier, you know, part of this is true that the fact that Netyahu's political stability depended on building this coalition with Benavier and Smotrich. But in recent weeks and months, he's he's been able to broaden his coalition out a little bit, so he doesn't actually need their votes in order to get this thing through. And I think part of this plays to net Yahu's favor to sort of, you know, have these guys on his right flank making this kind of noise. I mean, net and Yahu is the one that sabotaged the deal, not Bengavier. And it wasn't only because Smotrich and Ben Gavier were there. It was because Netanyaho knew he had the political support and it wasn't going to harm him politically to keep sabotaging these deals. But now you have a different equation where he doesn't so much need these guys and you know, Trump and company. I think part of this for net Yahoo is he's hoping that by working with Trump that Trump is going to help him politically as well. It's not entirely about the Gaza deal. You know, there are questions about what have Trump people offered net Yahu in response. Certainly one of the big prizes would be normalization with Saudi Arabia. That would be a huge victory for net Nyahu, especially if it doesn't include a very clear establishment of a Palestinian state. There's the you know, belligerence towards Iran and the potential to start striking Iranian nuclear sites or you know, down the line to try to enact regime change. Trump has been giving indications that may that may not be the full direction that he wants to go in, but let's just say it's out there. Annexation of the West Bank, these are all things that potentially are on the table. But net Yahoo primarily is concerned with Net Nyahu. Let's let's you know, keep that very clear. And I think that part of what's happening here is that there is some behind the scenes maneuvering between Netanyahu's camp and Trump's camp to look at how can Net Nyaho's neck be saved politically as part of this apparent capitulation on the Gaza ceasefire.

Mean, first just to take you know what Blincoln just said there, and then I'll trust the ben Gever part of this. You know, this is counterinsurgency, you know history one oh one. I mean, if you put people in an open air prison camp, if you deprive them of the right to nonviolent resistance, if you deprive them of food and put them on a calorie restricted diet, which the Israelis have done. If you dehumanize them, kill their parents, repeatedly tell them that there's no such thing as a Palestinian, you're going to leave the only option available to people who believe in fighting for their dignity to take up arms against their occupier or the colonial power that's invading them. So, you know, we could have told Anthony blinkn that this would happen on October sixth if they don't stop this policy that you're going and it's and by the way, it's not just that people are like joining Hamas. What we're talking about here is people deciding that they're going to be part of the armed resistance against what they put what they very clearly view as a brutal, gratuitous colonial occupying power backed by the United States and other major Western powers. So you know, Anthony Blinkin is going to be like for years to come, waking up in the morning going to his mirror and saying it's up to Hamas. Now, I mean, he's got some weird tick where he's just constantly lying about that dimension of this. And we could talk about, you know, blinkn A as a kind of neo Kissinger at some point. But to get back to Ben Gavier, you know, part of this is true that the fact that Netyahu's political stability depended on building this coalition with Benavier and Smotrich. But in recent weeks and months, he's he's been able to broaden his coalition out a little bit, so he doesn't actually need their votes in order to get this thing through. And I think part of this plays to net Yahu's favor to sort of, you know, have these guys on his right flank making this kind of noise. I mean, net and Yahu is the one that sabotaged the deal, not Bengavier. And it wasn't only because Smotrich and Ben Gavier were there. It was because Netanyaho knew he had the political support and it wasn't going to harm him politically to keep sabotaging these deals. But now you have a different equation where he doesn't so much need these guys and you know, Trump and company. I think part of this for net Yahoo is he's hoping that by working with Trump that Trump is going to help him politically as well. It's not entirely about the Gaza deal. You know, there are questions about what have Trump people offered net Yahu in response. Certainly one of the big prizes would be normalization with Saudi Arabia. That would be a huge victory for net Nyahu, especially if it doesn't include a very clear establishment of a Palestinian state. There's the you know, belligerence towards Iran and the potential to start striking Iranian nuclear sites or you know, down the line to try to enact regime change. Trump has been giving indications that may that may not be the full direction that he wants to go in, but let's just say it's out there. Annexation of the West Bank, these are all things that potentially are on the table. But net Yahoo primarily is concerned with Net Nyahu. Let's let's you know, keep that very clear. And I think that part of what's happening here is that there is some behind the scenes maneuvering between Netanyahu's camp and Trump's camp to look at how can Net Nyaho's neck be saved politically as part of this apparent capitulation on the Gaza ceasefire.

Terms.

Terms.

When reports that won't help we can put a five up include this one about Steve Whitcoff basically calling now, who's bluff about Chabot. I think this was from Haretz, and it makes me think, Jeremy that the clip of Ben Gavie, we already talked about instances like this. You know, a week from now, Donald Trump will be the president of the United States, and I can only think that, unlike with Biden and Blanken, that telegraphing from people like Ben Gavier will infuriate a potential Trump administration.

When reports that won't help we can put a five up include this one about Steve Whitcoff basically calling now, who's bluff about Chabot. I think this was from Haretz, and it makes me think, Jeremy that the clip of Ben Gavie, we already talked about instances like this. You know, a week from now, Donald Trump will be the president of the United States, and I can only think that, unlike with Biden and Blanken, that telegraphing from people like Ben Gavier will infuriate a potential Trump administration.

Going yeah, and before you answer, I just wanted to read for people what I think is an interesting the kind of choice that people in Washington would mock Trump for but clearly panned out for him.

Going yeah, and before you answer, I just wanted to read for people what I think is an interesting the kind of choice that people in Washington would mock Trump for but clearly panned out for him.

And this is from Haretz.

And this is from Haretz.

They write Witcoff and this is Witkoff is the guy who uh you know, called up whose aides and we're going to meet on Saturday.

They write Witcoff and this is Witkoff is the guy who uh you know, called up whose aides and we're going to meet on Saturday.

Aids are like, well, you know that's the Sabbath. Can't really bb can't really meet.

Aids are like, well, you know that's the Sabbath. Can't really bb can't really meet.

And Witkoff knows that who's secular, doesn't doesn't care about He's like, don't get me this crap. We're meeting on Saturday, and they meet on Saturday that gives him the kind of dominance in the meeting, and he steam rolls Nan Yah who, how Retz writes, Witcoff is a Jewish real estate investor and developer who is close to Trump. He doesn't have the background of the kind of people who usually filled diplomatic roles. Quote wick Coough isn't a diplomat, He doesn't talk like a diplomat. He has no interest in diplomatic manners and diplomatic protocols, says a senior Israeli diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. He's a businessman who wants to reach a deal quickly and charges ahead unusually aggressively. So that kind of appointment is the kind that gets mocked here in DC. But that does seem like the kind of guy you want to send into the meeting and tell Nen Yaho, what part of this don't you understand?

And Witkoff knows that who's secular, doesn't doesn't care about He's like, don't get me this crap. We're meeting on Saturday, and they meet on Saturday that gives him the kind of dominance in the meeting, and he steam rolls Nan Yah who, how Retz writes, Witcoff is a Jewish real estate investor and developer who is close to Trump. He doesn't have the background of the kind of people who usually filled diplomatic roles. Quote wick Coough isn't a diplomat, He doesn't talk like a diplomat. He has no interest in diplomatic manners and diplomatic protocols, says a senior Israeli diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. He's a businessman who wants to reach a deal quickly and charges ahead unusually aggressively. So that kind of appointment is the kind that gets mocked here in DC. But that does seem like the kind of guy you want to send into the meeting and tell Nen Yaho, what part of this don't you understand?

Well, there's a difference between Rex Tillerson and Steve Whitcoffe's exactly, yes, trying.

Well, there's a difference between Rex Tillerson and Steve Whitcoffe's exactly, yes, trying.

To right so, and I mean the Rex Tillerson analogy, it's a really it's actually a really good one because you know Tillerson, and I think we're going to see some of this with like with little Marco Rubio as well, go down where you know the people that end up in Trump's orbit that have been part of the machine or part of kind of the you know, the the elite inner circle, they always have kind of a split loyalty from Trump's perspective. They're not just loyal to Trump, they also are thinking about sort of the bigger picture of the American empire and American institution. And so, you know, when Trump has like kind of his own people there, on the one hand, it causes like, you know, sort of the apocalypse has come to town among the blob. But on the other hand, I think if you're someone like Yahoo and you've got like, you know, Steve Whitcoff, someone none of these people had ever heard of before coming in, but you know he's there for Trump, it's like you're talking to Trump. Whereas if you have like an Anthony Blinkn there, you can manage Anthony blink and you can spin Antony Blink and you can make an absolute fool of Anthony Blinkn. But in this case, it's like Trump kind of mafia style. It's like, this is my consiglieri that you're going to be talking to, and if you what you say to him, you say to me, that can be very effective. Whatever we think about it, whatever norms it breaks, it can be very effective. I do want a caution here, one note of caution. While I do think that, you know, there are truths to all of this, and I've also heard it from the Palestinian side that they're saying, like, you know, somehow Trump's people have gotten like issue X to be a non issue now. So, like I've heard, tangible results have been achieved because of the shift in tactics. That's real. But I also think that net and Yahoo and some of his people might be playing up some of this for their own reasons. It sends some of the fire toward Trump, who's enormously popular in Israel. This is by no means going to damage Trump's standing in Israel, no matter how many commentators whine about it on TV. So I would just be careful. I wouldn't over sell the idea that like Trump's people really put Netanyahu in a corner. I think there's truth to it, and I've heard it also from the Palestinian side, But I do think that there is some spin at play here because it in a way it does benefit Netnyaho and I think met Yahoo's probas at the end of the day is his own political and personal fate more than it is anything about Israel. And in that way, he and Trump have some great similarities.

To right so, and I mean the Rex Tillerson analogy, it's a really it's actually a really good one because you know Tillerson, and I think we're going to see some of this with like with little Marco Rubio as well, go down where you know the people that end up in Trump's orbit that have been part of the machine or part of kind of the you know, the the elite inner circle, they always have kind of a split loyalty from Trump's perspective. They're not just loyal to Trump, they also are thinking about sort of the bigger picture of the American empire and American institution. And so, you know, when Trump has like kind of his own people there, on the one hand, it causes like, you know, sort of the apocalypse has come to town among the blob. But on the other hand, I think if you're someone like Yahoo and you've got like, you know, Steve Whitcoff, someone none of these people had ever heard of before coming in, but you know he's there for Trump, it's like you're talking to Trump. Whereas if you have like an Anthony Blinkn there, you can manage Anthony blink and you can spin Antony Blink and you can make an absolute fool of Anthony Blinkn. But in this case, it's like Trump kind of mafia style. It's like, this is my consiglieri that you're going to be talking to, and if you what you say to him, you say to me, that can be very effective. Whatever we think about it, whatever norms it breaks, it can be very effective. I do want a caution here, one note of caution. While I do think that, you know, there are truths to all of this, and I've also heard it from the Palestinian side that they're saying, like, you know, somehow Trump's people have gotten like issue X to be a non issue now. So, like I've heard, tangible results have been achieved because of the shift in tactics. That's real. But I also think that net and Yahoo and some of his people might be playing up some of this for their own reasons. It sends some of the fire toward Trump, who's enormously popular in Israel. This is by no means going to damage Trump's standing in Israel, no matter how many commentators whine about it on TV. So I would just be careful. I wouldn't over sell the idea that like Trump's people really put Netanyahu in a corner. I think there's truth to it, and I've heard it also from the Palestinian side, But I do think that there is some spin at play here because it in a way it does benefit Netnyaho and I think met Yahoo's probas at the end of the day is his own political and personal fate more than it is anything about Israel. And in that way, he and Trump have some great similarities.

And Trump reposted that wild Jeffrey Sachs critique of Netna who on truth Social at the.

And Trump reposted that wild Jeffrey Sachs critique of Netna who on truth Social at the.

End of the day as well.

End of the day as well.

You know, if you talk to Palestinians too, they many Palestinians who follow this stuff closely are aware also of a variety of things that happened during Trump's first term where Trump genuinely, for instance, seemed to like Mahmud debas. You know, Trump really seemed to be interested in some form of a deal that would lead to Palestinian statehood, something that Netnyaho would never even consider under Joe Biden. You know, so there there are wild cards here, and you know, again we've talked about this on the show before. Trump at the end of the day, he's not like a normal, ordinary person, but he is not a creature of the Washington swamp, and that can be dangerous in some ways, but it also has its benefits. He really really doesn't care about what the Henry Kissingers of the world, or Anthony Blinkn's of the world for that matter, believe should be the norm of America's standing in the world. It cuts both ways, but in this case, it could at least give some relief to the Palestinians of Gaza who are suffering under an unconscionable genocide that Joe Biden could have ended long ago.

You know, if you talk to Palestinians too, they many Palestinians who follow this stuff closely are aware also of a variety of things that happened during Trump's first term where Trump genuinely, for instance, seemed to like Mahmud debas. You know, Trump really seemed to be interested in some form of a deal that would lead to Palestinian statehood, something that Netnyaho would never even consider under Joe Biden. You know, so there there are wild cards here, and you know, again we've talked about this on the show before. Trump at the end of the day, he's not like a normal, ordinary person, but he is not a creature of the Washington swamp, and that can be dangerous in some ways, but it also has its benefits. He really really doesn't care about what the Henry Kissingers of the world, or Anthony Blinkn's of the world for that matter, believe should be the norm of America's standing in the world. It cuts both ways, but in this case, it could at least give some relief to the Palestinians of Gaza who are suffering under an unconscionable genocide that Joe Biden could have ended long ago.

And there's also been reporting over the last year that Miriam Addelson, Sheldon Adelson's widow, I guess, offered something like one hundred million dollars a Trump's campaign, basically in exchange for a direct quid pro quo of allowing Israel to annex the West Bank. Talk a little bit about what's going on in the West Bank the last few days, and what do you think the price might be for the West Bank to get this ceasefire.

And there's also been reporting over the last year that Miriam Addelson, Sheldon Adelson's widow, I guess, offered something like one hundred million dollars a Trump's campaign, basically in exchange for a direct quid pro quo of allowing Israel to annex the West Bank. Talk a little bit about what's going on in the West Bank the last few days, and what do you think the price might be for the West Bank to get this ceasefire.

And let's also note Miriam Maidelson is just announced yesterday co hosting an inaugural ball with Mark Zuckerberg on Trump's behalf. Still very much just.

And let's also note Miriam Maidelson is just announced yesterday co hosting an inaugural ball with Mark Zuckerberg on Trump's behalf. Still very much just.

Wild bedfellows are emerging in this whole thing, whole other discussion. Look, it's a it's an incendiary situation right now in the West Bank. I mean we had just last night the Israelis did air strikes in Janine, killing you know a number of people. The Palestinian Authority itself, which is viewed by many Palestinians as kind of an extension or an agent of the Israeli occupation, has been waging paramilitary campaign to go after armed resistance factions right before the Israelis actually did this book there.

Wild bedfellows are emerging in this whole thing, whole other discussion. Look, it's a it's an incendiary situation right now in the West Bank. I mean we had just last night the Israelis did air strikes in Janine, killing you know a number of people. The Palestinian Authority itself, which is viewed by many Palestinians as kind of an extension or an agent of the Israeli occupation, has been waging paramilitary campaign to go after armed resistance factions right before the Israelis actually did this book there.

People should read, by the way, Marian Barguti's piece and drop site on the ground reporting about this PA led assault on fighters, and yeah it was.

People should read, by the way, Marian Barguti's piece and drop site on the ground reporting about this PA led assault on fighters, and yeah it was.

I mean, it's the it's the most you know, significant military operation that the Palestinian authority has done under the areas of its nominal control in recent memory. And you know, people in the West Bank, I think are are now living in a state of incredible uncertainty. You and and Dane. You have new you know, really empowered, violent extremist settlers that are attacking Palestinians, stealing Palestinian land. They're being backed by the official forces of the Israeli state. You have net Nyahu and his government moving forward with trying to annex further territory, build more settlements. You then have the Palestinian Authority engaging in its paramilitary operations inside of the West Bank, and now Israel once again bombing in the in the West Bank. If there's a Gaza ceasefire deal, Uh, then I think you're going to see and I'm hearing this from Palestinians on the ground and intensification of Israeli operations in the West Bank itself. So, you know, the even even though we may get a break from some of this, the overarching reality is that this is unresolved and the Palestinians as a people are remain very much in danger. I also think though, that it is evidence that if the Palestinians had not resisted Israel, they would have been erased a long time ago. And you know, Hamas certainly is going to have to answer its own questions from its own people about decisions that it made over the course of the past fifteen and sixteen months. But at the end of the day, this is not a total victory for NETANYAHUU the likes of which he claimed he was going to get. This deal doesn't say Hamas is gone. This deal doesn't say Hamas is not allowed to participate in politics. And Anthony Blincoln put a very fine point on it. Even in a discombobulated way, resistance is growing in Gaza and the West Bank. It's not being stamped out. You can't kill your way to victory. This was what Bush and Cheney thought they could do with their you know, neo con wars that many Democrats back. It just history just shows it never works. Look at Afghanistan, Jeremy.

I mean, it's the it's the most you know, significant military operation that the Palestinian authority has done under the areas of its nominal control in recent memory. And you know, people in the West Bank, I think are are now living in a state of incredible uncertainty. You and and Dane. You have new you know, really empowered, violent extremist settlers that are attacking Palestinians, stealing Palestinian land. They're being backed by the official forces of the Israeli state. You have net Nyahu and his government moving forward with trying to annex further territory, build more settlements. You then have the Palestinian Authority engaging in its paramilitary operations inside of the West Bank, and now Israel once again bombing in the in the West Bank. If there's a Gaza ceasefire deal, Uh, then I think you're going to see and I'm hearing this from Palestinians on the ground and intensification of Israeli operations in the West Bank itself. So, you know, the even even though we may get a break from some of this, the overarching reality is that this is unresolved and the Palestinians as a people are remain very much in danger. I also think though, that it is evidence that if the Palestinians had not resisted Israel, they would have been erased a long time ago. And you know, Hamas certainly is going to have to answer its own questions from its own people about decisions that it made over the course of the past fifteen and sixteen months. But at the end of the day, this is not a total victory for NETANYAHUU the likes of which he claimed he was going to get. This deal doesn't say Hamas is gone. This deal doesn't say Hamas is not allowed to participate in politics. And Anthony Blincoln put a very fine point on it. Even in a discombobulated way, resistance is growing in Gaza and the West Bank. It's not being stamped out. You can't kill your way to victory. This was what Bush and Cheney thought they could do with their you know, neo con wars that many Democrats back. It just history just shows it never works. Look at Afghanistan, Jeremy.

I was going to say the same thing. Blincoln's point is actually so self defeating if you're considered it in that context. And before we let you go, I just want to get your reaction to some of these mounting criticisms. I mean, they've been there all along, but especially pitched right now from hostage families. So this is a six. We can put this up. It's a vo so you'll see on video hostage families as really hostage families saying that they have received threats or families of the kidnapped have received threats that their loved ones would not appear on the returney list if they continued to make noise, and some of the families back down because they felt threatened. That's the translation. And if we move on to a seven, you can actually see more of this. This is from we are all hostages, who says net and Yah Who's coalition members attack hostage families on a weekly basis because they despise them. Jeremy, what are the politics or how do these politics influence net Yahoo in the days ahead?

I was going to say the same thing. Blincoln's point is actually so self defeating if you're considered it in that context. And before we let you go, I just want to get your reaction to some of these mounting criticisms. I mean, they've been there all along, but especially pitched right now from hostage families. So this is a six. We can put this up. It's a vo so you'll see on video hostage families as really hostage families saying that they have received threats or families of the kidnapped have received threats that their loved ones would not appear on the returney list if they continued to make noise, and some of the families back down because they felt threatened. That's the translation. And if we move on to a seven, you can actually see more of this. This is from we are all hostages, who says net and Yah Who's coalition members attack hostage families on a weekly basis because they despise them. Jeremy, what are the politics or how do these politics influence net Yahoo in the days ahead?

I mean, this is an utterly sickening dynamic. I mean, look at the way that the families of the Israelis being held in Gaza have been treated. Throughout the course of the past fifteen months. Net Yahu and his supporters in the government have used the fact that there are Israeli captives hostages in Gaza as a major political cudgel to defend Israel's genocide, and yet at every turn when they could have returned them, I mean, how is it that they have not made a deal to get some of the elderly people out or children. You know, and I've been very clear from the beginning, no one ever should be taking children captive hostage, harming them in any way. Those people should have been released long ago, and yes, Hamas should answer questions for that, but also Israel is the main reason why they haven't been released, and those families deserve the support of the world when they're saying do anything to get our loved ones out of there, because at the under other end of that that do anything means stop killing the children and the elderly and the sick of Gaza as well. I mean they've been used as a political football and to be told, if you don't shut up, we're going to push your family members further down the list and into the second phase or the third phase of this. I mean, this is just morally reprehensible behavior and.

I mean, this is an utterly sickening dynamic. I mean, look at the way that the families of the Israelis being held in Gaza have been treated. Throughout the course of the past fifteen months. Net Yahu and his supporters in the government have used the fact that there are Israeli captives hostages in Gaza as a major political cudgel to defend Israel's genocide, and yet at every turn when they could have returned them, I mean, how is it that they have not made a deal to get some of the elderly people out or children. You know, and I've been very clear from the beginning, no one ever should be taking children captive hostage, harming them in any way. Those people should have been released long ago, and yes, Hamas should answer questions for that, but also Israel is the main reason why they haven't been released, and those families deserve the support of the world when they're saying do anything to get our loved ones out of there, because at the under other end of that that do anything means stop killing the children and the elderly and the sick of Gaza as well. I mean they've been used as a political football and to be told, if you don't shut up, we're going to push your family members further down the list and into the second phase or the third phase of this. I mean, this is just morally reprehensible behavior and.

Unfortunately not shocking. It's hostage taking. It's literally hostage taking. To say that we will keep your family member held hostage unless you do x is That is hostage taking, even if you're outsourcing the hostage taking in that situation.

Unfortunately not shocking. It's hostage taking. It's literally hostage taking. To say that we will keep your family member held hostage unless you do x is That is hostage taking, even if you're outsourcing the hostage taking in that situation.

It's also Israel's policy on Palestinians in general, which is, if you don't bend the knee and agree to subjugation and colonialism and to live as a second or third class citizen, if we even allow you to live, then you're going to be subjected to economic, military, and political warfare as long as you walk this earth. It's a microcosm of that broader mentality that leads to things like a war of annihilation against an overwhelmingly civilian population of Gaza.

It's also Israel's policy on Palestinians in general, which is, if you don't bend the knee and agree to subjugation and colonialism and to live as a second or third class citizen, if we even allow you to live, then you're going to be subjected to economic, military, and political warfare as long as you walk this earth. It's a microcosm of that broader mentality that leads to things like a war of annihilation against an overwhelmingly civilian population of Gaza.

Yeah, and last question for you from your source is when are they expecting? When can when can we expect a kind of final announcement here.

Yeah, and last question for you from your source is when are they expecting? When can when can we expect a kind of final announcement here.

You know, Ryan, I I'd be an idiot if I answered that question, because you know, when you when you well, I will. I will give you guys one vignette. You know. A few days ago, I was talking to a negotiator from the Palestinian resistance. We we all say Hamas, but there's multiple groups that are involved with the negotiation. It's not just Thamas. And they said that they they had to affirm in no uncertain terms to the mediators that there would be no leaks about this.

You know, Ryan, I I'd be an idiot if I answered that question, because you know, when you when you well, I will. I will give you guys one vignette. You know. A few days ago, I was talking to a negotiator from the Palestinian resistance. We we all say Hamas, but there's multiple groups that are involved with the negotiation. It's not just Thamas. And they said that they they had to affirm in no uncertain terms to the mediators that there would be no leaks about this.

You know.

You know.

They they also want this deal to go through, you know. So I had indications, Oh, it's it looks like it's going to be you know today, But then you have these hiccups happen with technical discussions. So I think there's a high likelihood that it's going to happen before Trump's inauguration. But the devil is in the details, and net Yahoo has been known to pull eleventh hour tricks. So you know, I'm I'm not so naive as to say, oh, Ryan, well, my sources are telling me today. It all depends on what happens with these remaining technical discussions. But there are indications that it should happen before Trump's inauguration.

They they also want this deal to go through, you know. So I had indications, Oh, it's it looks like it's going to be you know today, But then you have these hiccups happen with technical discussions. So I think there's a high likelihood that it's going to happen before Trump's inauguration. But the devil is in the details, and net Yahoo has been known to pull eleventh hour tricks. So you know, I'm I'm not so naive as to say, oh, Ryan, well, my sources are telling me today. It all depends on what happens with these remaining technical discussions. But there are indications that it should happen before Trump's inauguration.

All right, So up next, we're going to talk about a new survey out that shows that among the people who voted for Biden in twenty twenty and then did not vote for Kamala Harris in twenty twenty four, Kamala, refusing to break with Biden on Gaza is cited as their number one reason they.

All right, So up next, we're going to talk about a new survey out that shows that among the people who voted for Biden in twenty twenty and then did not vote for Kamala Harris in twenty twenty four, Kamala, refusing to break with Biden on Gaza is cited as their number one reason they.

Decided not to vote. We'll talk about that in a second.

Decided not to vote. We'll talk about that in a second.

From twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, Democrats saw a staggering drop off and support at the presidential level, with some nineteen million people who voted for Joe Biden staying home or not mailing in.

From twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, Democrats saw a staggering drop off and support at the presidential level, with some nineteen million people who voted for Joe Biden staying home or not mailing in.

Their ballots in twenty twenty four.

Their ballots in twenty twenty four.

A new survey conducted by YouGov suggests Biden's support for Israel's unrelenting assault on Gaza played a surprisingly large role in the decision making of those previous Biden supporters who didn't vote. The top reason those non voters cited above the economy at twenty four percent an immigration at eleven percent, was Gaza, which a full twenty nine percent cited as the top reason they didn't cast a vote.

A new survey conducted by YouGov suggests Biden's support for Israel's unrelenting assault on Gaza played a surprisingly large role in the decision making of those previous Biden supporters who didn't vote. The top reason those non voters cited above the economy at twenty four percent an immigration at eleven percent, was Gaza, which a full twenty nine percent cited as the top reason they didn't cast a vote.

In twenty twenty four.

In twenty twenty four.

Looking narrowly at states that swung from Biden in twenty twenty to Trump in twenty twenty four, the number is smaller, but in those states, twenty percent still cited.

Looking narrowly at states that swung from Biden in twenty twenty to Trump in twenty twenty four, the number is smaller, but in those states, twenty percent still cited.

Gaza as the reason they didn't vote.

Gaza as the reason they didn't vote.

Again, the poll was paid for it by the Institute for Middle East Understanding, which has been an outspoken critic of Israel's assault on Gaza now before firmly demonstrating that Gaza costs Democrats the election. A handful of caveats are important, So even if October seventh and the resulting genocide had never happened, it's fair to assume some number of those non voters still would not have voted and would have cited a different top reason for not voting. Citing a top reason for not voting is different than it being the only reason that you didn't vote. And because the turnout drop off was smaller or in swing states, Gaza may not have been decisive on its own. Whenever surveys confirm views we already hold, or tell us things we want to be true, it's worth approaching their findings with increased skepticism. Still, even the most biased pole can only manufacture so much of a response. Even if the true numbers aren't as stark as this survey found, the direction that it points in is clear. Biden's ruthless support for Israel's genocide and the refusal of Harris to break with him hurt her among voters who stayed home. A previous survey taken during the election by Yugov and similarly sponsored by IMEU, found strong evidence that nominee Kamala Harris would be significantly boosted by breaking with Biden on Gaza and applying real pressure on Israel.

Again, the poll was paid for it by the Institute for Middle East Understanding, which has been an outspoken critic of Israel's assault on Gaza now before firmly demonstrating that Gaza costs Democrats the election. A handful of caveats are important, So even if October seventh and the resulting genocide had never happened, it's fair to assume some number of those non voters still would not have voted and would have cited a different top reason for not voting. Citing a top reason for not voting is different than it being the only reason that you didn't vote. And because the turnout drop off was smaller or in swing states, Gaza may not have been decisive on its own. Whenever surveys confirm views we already hold, or tell us things we want to be true, it's worth approaching their findings with increased skepticism. Still, even the most biased pole can only manufacture so much of a response. Even if the true numbers aren't as stark as this survey found, the direction that it points in is clear. Biden's ruthless support for Israel's genocide and the refusal of Harris to break with him hurt her among voters who stayed home. A previous survey taken during the election by Yugov and similarly sponsored by IMEU, found strong evidence that nominee Kamala Harris would be significantly boosted by breaking with Biden on Gaza and applying real pressure on Israel.

Harris chose not to do so.

Harris chose not to do so.

Breaking with Biden on Gaza could have had a knock on effects elsewhere. As Harris never successfully answered a question that dogged her throughout her campaign, what would she have done diff differently than Biden or what would she do differently than Biden in the future, Harris eventually settled on the unsatisfying answerence. My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency. And like every new and like every new president comes into office, I'll bring my life experiences something like that.

Breaking with Biden on Gaza could have had a knock on effects elsewhere. As Harris never successfully answered a question that dogged her throughout her campaign, what would she have done diff differently than Biden or what would she do differently than Biden in the future, Harris eventually settled on the unsatisfying answerence. My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency. And like every new and like every new president comes into office, I'll bring my life experiences something like that.

You know, I'm my name's Kamala Harris. I'm not Joe Biden.

You know, I'm my name's Kamala Harris. I'm not Joe Biden.

Now in one emblematic response, she has a debate for instance, check this one out.

Now in one emblematic response, she has a debate for instance, check this one out.

Clearly, I am not Joe Biden, and I am certainly not Donald Trump. And what I do offer is a new generation of leadership for our country, one who believes in what is possible, one who brings a sense of optimism about what we can do instead of always disparaging the American people. I believe in what we can do to strengthen our small businesses, which is why I have a plan. Let's talk about our plans.

Clearly, I am not Joe Biden, and I am certainly not Donald Trump. And what I do offer is a new generation of leadership for our country, one who believes in what is possible, one who brings a sense of optimism about what we can do instead of always disparaging the American people. I believe in what we can do to strengthen our small businesses, which is why I have a plan. Let's talk about our plans.

Yeah, okay, so that's not an answer.

Yeah, okay, so that's not an answer.

But breaking with Biden on Gaza, of course, that risk losing voters who supported his policy, but a close look at this survey shows that the risk was low compared to the reward from breaking with him. Voters who were with Biden in twenty twenty and stuck with Harris in twenty twenty four were asked if breaking with him on Gaza would make them more or less enthusiastic about voting for Harris, and by a thirty five to five percent margin, they said breaking with him would have made them more enthusiastic to vote for Kamala Harris, with the remainder saying it would have made no difference. Non voters said that if she had broken with Biden on Gaza, they'd have been more likely to vote for her by a thirty six to ten margin. Meanwhile, Democrat's unshakable commitment to the war also blended with concerns that the party was not focused on issues that mattered to Americans, as I argued previously. The survey, meanwhile, showed that the issue was most salient among whitef voters, thirty four percent of which said it was the top reason they didn't vote for Harris and Hispanic voters at twenty seven percent, while less so with black voters at just nine percent. And so emily like like I was saying, you always have to take polls like this with the grain of salt, and you can prime a poll. You can you know, if you're asking questions about Gaza, then maybe Gaza rises a little bit in your mind. If Gaza happens to be in the news when you pick up the phone, Poultures have found that that heavily influences how much you know, how much it comes up in an answer. If the news is talking about the deficit constantly, you call somebody up and ask them if they're concerned about the deficits, They're like, yeah, but there's if.

But breaking with Biden on Gaza, of course, that risk losing voters who supported his policy, but a close look at this survey shows that the risk was low compared to the reward from breaking with him. Voters who were with Biden in twenty twenty and stuck with Harris in twenty twenty four were asked if breaking with him on Gaza would make them more or less enthusiastic about voting for Harris, and by a thirty five to five percent margin, they said breaking with him would have made them more enthusiastic to vote for Kamala Harris, with the remainder saying it would have made no difference. Non voters said that if she had broken with Biden on Gaza, they'd have been more likely to vote for her by a thirty six to ten margin. Meanwhile, Democrat's unshakable commitment to the war also blended with concerns that the party was not focused on issues that mattered to Americans, as I argued previously. The survey, meanwhile, showed that the issue was most salient among whitef voters, thirty four percent of which said it was the top reason they didn't vote for Harris and Hispanic voters at twenty seven percent, while less so with black voters at just nine percent. And so emily like like I was saying, you always have to take polls like this with the grain of salt, and you can prime a poll. You can you know, if you're asking questions about Gaza, then maybe Gaza rises a little bit in your mind. If Gaza happens to be in the news when you pick up the phone, Poultures have found that that heavily influences how much you know, how much it comes up in an answer. If the news is talking about the deficit constantly, you call somebody up and ask them if they're concerned about the deficits, They're like, yeah, but there's if.

The deficits not in the news, then it completely vanishes. From I ask on.

The deficits not in the news, then it completely vanishes. From I ask on.

October eighth about the deficit, you'll probably get different.

October eighth about the deficit, you'll probably get different.

Yes.

Yes.

So all that said, you can't manufacture a number that high if there isn't something.

So all that said, you can't manufacture a number that high if there isn't something.

Real underneath it.

Real underneath it.

Totally, and I do think that it blended more generally with the problems that Democrats had. If you lose that many voters nineteen million, and a third of them say that the top reason that they didn't vote for you was the way that you were because you didn't break with Biden on Gaza. That's millions of people. Not every single one of them votes for you, but if some do, that matters.