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This will truly be the golden age of America. This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow.

This will truly be the golden age of America. This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow.

Us to make America great again.

Us to make America great again.

So that was Donald Trump declaring his victory in Florida. Trump has won the US presidential election age seventy eight, winning a second term in a dramatic comeback. How will America's forty seventh president change the world and what will it mean for Britain and Europe. Hello, you're listening to Bloomberg UK Politics. I'm Caroline Hepketh and I'm.

So that was Donald Trump declaring his victory in Florida. Trump has won the US presidential election age seventy eight, winning a second term in a dramatic comeback. How will America's forty seventh president change the world and what will it mean for Britain and Europe. Hello, you're listening to Bloomberg UK Politics. I'm Caroline Hepketh and I'm.

You and Potts. Welcome to the program. So in the end, it wasn't as close as the polls suggested. We're some way from the detail of the final result, but it's very clear that Donald Trump has to cured a convincing win and another four years in the White House. Investors have been buying stocks and selling US bonds in the expectation of more growth but higher inflation. But what would Trump to mean for us here in the UK?

You and Potts. Welcome to the program. So in the end, it wasn't as close as the polls suggested. We're some way from the detail of the final result, but it's very clear that Donald Trump has to cured a convincing win and another four years in the White House. Investors have been buying stocks and selling US bonds in the expectation of more growth but higher inflation. But what would Trump to mean for us here in the UK?

Yeah, indeed, and on foreign policy, the former president wants a resolution of the Russia Ukraine War. We know that he still thinks NATO allies aren't pulling their weight, or more precisely, paying their fair share. Domestically, He's clear that he is pro fossil fuels and anti green energy. Then, of course there's what he's called the most beautiful word in the dictionary. How much should the UK and the rest of the world be worried about the threat of tariffs?

Yeah, indeed, and on foreign policy, the former president wants a resolution of the Russia Ukraine War. We know that he still thinks NATO allies aren't pulling their weight, or more precisely, paying their fair share. Domestically, He's clear that he is pro fossil fuels and anti green energy. Then, of course there's what he's called the most beautiful word in the dictionary. How much should the UK and the rest of the world be worried about the threat of tariffs?

Joining us to discuss?

Joining us to discuss?

Who better than Bloomberg's UK Economy and Government Managing editor Brendan Scott and in Brussels our bureau chief Kevin white Law. Kevin was also Deputy Managing editor for US Government under the last Trump presidency. So extremely familiar then with Trump as he returns to the White House. Welcome to both of you, and thank you for being with us, Kevin, can I start with you? Macaon, Schultz, kirsed Armer have all laid out warm words of congratulations for Donald Trump.

Who better than Bloomberg's UK Economy and Government Managing editor Brendan Scott and in Brussels our bureau chief Kevin white Law. Kevin was also Deputy Managing editor for US Government under the last Trump presidency. So extremely familiar then with Trump as he returns to the White House. Welcome to both of you, and thank you for being with us, Kevin, can I start with you? Macaon, Schultz, kirsed Armer have all laid out warm words of congratulations for Donald Trump.

What do you think they're really thinking?

What do you think they're really thinking?

Well, you know, obviously, I think everyone was as quick to congratulate them as as they thought they could be once it was Cleary was going to win. But one of the more interesting conversations has already happened between Emmanuel Macron and Germany's all left Schultz where they did talk about the need to boost European sovereignty, and I think that's a word you're going to hear a lot more from from the European side in in the in the days and weeks ahead.

Well, you know, obviously, I think everyone was as quick to congratulate them as as they thought they could be once it was Cleary was going to win. But one of the more interesting conversations has already happened between Emmanuel Macron and Germany's all left Schultz where they did talk about the need to boost European sovereignty, and I think that's a word you're going to hear a lot more from from the European side in in the in the days and weeks ahead.

You know.

You know.

At the same time, it's a it's a time where Europe's own national politics are are in a are are a bit scrambled and and you'd normally expect friends in Germany to be leading sort of the response, the political response, but both both of those leaders have their own domestic troubles and so they're both in weaken positions going into you know, what's likely to be a pretty uh, let's say, disruptive period.

At the same time, it's a it's a time where Europe's own national politics are are in a are are a bit scrambled and and you'd normally expect friends in Germany to be leading sort of the response, the political response, but both both of those leaders have their own domestic troubles and so they're both in weaken positions going into you know, what's likely to be a pretty uh, let's say, disruptive period.

Here Brendan threats and opportunities for the UK from a Trump presidency. But there's a long history, isn't that with kirs Armer and Labor and those comments from David Lammy back in twenty seventeen and the few between London's mess that he can do. You think that kist Armer and this government can overcome those things and make a good fist of it.

Here Brendan threats and opportunities for the UK from a Trump presidency. But there's a long history, isn't that with kirs Armer and Labor and those comments from David Lammy back in twenty seventeen and the few between London's mess that he can do. You think that kist Armer and this government can overcome those things and make a good fist of it.

Well, I think on paper there's probably a lot of people in the UK that will be breathing a sigh of relief or looking for silver linings on the fact that this is now an economy that is separated from Europe. If you're very much seems to be in the crosshairs. Britain itself has a trade deficit with the US. It's a lot of it's trade with the US is and services and our goods. That means it's less exposed to tariffs. Britain is also one of the NATO members that has the highest level of defense spending and it's meeting it's two percent of GDP commitm, so that that all should bode well on a level playing field. But as you mentioned, we do have a history of starmar. He's from a left leaning party, he has he and several high ranking members of his cabinet have been highly critical of Donald Trump over the years. So he's going to have to bridge that divide, and all indications are he's going in that. He hasn't been able to do.

Well, I think on paper there's probably a lot of people in the UK that will be breathing a sigh of relief or looking for silver linings on the fact that this is now an economy that is separated from Europe. If you're very much seems to be in the crosshairs. Britain itself has a trade deficit with the US. It's a lot of it's trade with the US is and services and our goods. That means it's less exposed to tariffs. Britain is also one of the NATO members that has the highest level of defense spending and it's meeting it's two percent of GDP commitm, so that that all should bode well on a level playing field. But as you mentioned, we do have a history of starmar. He's from a left leaning party, he has he and several high ranking members of his cabinet have been highly critical of Donald Trump over the years. So he's going to have to bridge that divide, and all indications are he's going in that. He hasn't been able to do.

That so far.

That so far.

He had a very public spat with Trump over Labor Party activists who went over to campaign on for Kamala Harris. Although that sort of thing has been going on for years. The way it came out, and the way Trump decided to make an issue out of it doesn't bode well for the relationship. And of course we also have the Elon Musk element as well, where we've seen Starmer in a very high profile spat with Elon Musk over Twitter's content related to the far right riots that went on in this country earlier this summer, before Elon really became a key member of the Trump Trump campaign. But it doesn't seem like that's something that's just going to go away.

He had a very public spat with Trump over Labor Party activists who went over to campaign on for Kamala Harris. Although that sort of thing has been going on for years. The way it came out, and the way Trump decided to make an issue out of it doesn't bode well for the relationship. And of course we also have the Elon Musk element as well, where we've seen Starmer in a very high profile spat with Elon Musk over Twitter's content related to the far right riots that went on in this country earlier this summer, before Elon really became a key member of the Trump Trump campaign. But it doesn't seem like that's something that's just going to go away.

Yeah, I think that's very interesting that you talk about it being a sigh of relief. The last Ugov poll of opinions in the UK showed that actually only eighteen percent of people in the UK wanted to see Trump elected to the White House.

Yeah, I think that's very interesting that you talk about it being a sigh of relief. The last Ugov poll of opinions in the UK showed that actually only eighteen percent of people in the UK wanted to see Trump elected to the White House.

And that includes Tories. I mean people on the political right are enthusiastic about a second Trump presidency either.

And that includes Tories. I mean people on the political right are enthusiastic about a second Trump presidency either.

Yeah. No, I think those interesting points.

Yeah. No, I think those interesting points.

So then in that case, let's come to the issue of tariffs. Kevin Brussels has been preparing for Trump two pointer, including this possibility of a tariff war. Trump says that, and when he was speaking to his supporters only earlier today, said that he would make good on his promises, what do you expect.

So then in that case, let's come to the issue of tariffs. Kevin Brussels has been preparing for Trump two pointer, including this possibility of a tariff war. Trump says that, and when he was speaking to his supporters only earlier today, said that he would make good on his promises, what do you expect.

Look Bloomberg editor in chief John Nicholswaite interviewed Trump last month. The quote was, to me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs. And so I think that we've all learned that you need to Trump seriously, even if you don't always take him literally. And so I do think that he will definitely move ahead and discuss plans to do this. The question for Europe is going to be how much of this is really a negotiating tactic and how much of it is an actual plan. And I think that that's going to take a little bit of time to fully suss out as it goes forward. But Europe has to be ready for something. They were caught off guard in Trump's first term, and they've done a lot of work to try to get themselves in a somewhat better position to be able to respond in a second one. So they've adopted EU has adopted some new various defensive trade measures that allow it to be a bit more nimble, and as we've been reporting, they've also been working on trying to come up with sort of a plan for what they target if on the US side and retaliation if Trump moves ahead with things. So I do think that there's a recognition they need to be a lot more ready than they were last time. But already see in some of the reactions in European stocks, particularly in among German car makers, it's a huge concern about how that's all going to play out. The other X factor here for Europe is China actually, which obviously is something that Trump is SETI wants to target Chinese trade a lot. The EU is already finding itself looking a bit more critically over the years at China's trade practices. How much room there is for there to be more of a team up there and how much there isn't is going to be yet another factor as they try to figure out just how serious the threat is to a trans atlantic trade war.

Look Bloomberg editor in chief John Nicholswaite interviewed Trump last month. The quote was, to me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs. And so I think that we've all learned that you need to Trump seriously, even if you don't always take him literally. And so I do think that he will definitely move ahead and discuss plans to do this. The question for Europe is going to be how much of this is really a negotiating tactic and how much of it is an actual plan. And I think that that's going to take a little bit of time to fully suss out as it goes forward. But Europe has to be ready for something. They were caught off guard in Trump's first term, and they've done a lot of work to try to get themselves in a somewhat better position to be able to respond in a second one. So they've adopted EU has adopted some new various defensive trade measures that allow it to be a bit more nimble, and as we've been reporting, they've also been working on trying to come up with sort of a plan for what they target if on the US side and retaliation if Trump moves ahead with things. So I do think that there's a recognition they need to be a lot more ready than they were last time. But already see in some of the reactions in European stocks, particularly in among German car makers, it's a huge concern about how that's all going to play out. The other X factor here for Europe is China actually, which obviously is something that Trump is SETI wants to target Chinese trade a lot. The EU is already finding itself looking a bit more critically over the years at China's trade practices. How much room there is for there to be more of a team up there and how much there isn't is going to be yet another factor as they try to figure out just how serious the threat is to a trans atlantic trade war.

So Tariff's and China very much on the agenda in Brussels Brendan. For the UK, twenty percent tariff on all of our US exports will be disaster, assuming there's any chance of this happening US. US is obviously our biggest export destination. How lightly is that scenario and what barring does the UK really have?

So Tariff's and China very much on the agenda in Brussels Brendan. For the UK, twenty percent tariff on all of our US exports will be disaster, assuming there's any chance of this happening US. US is obviously our biggest export destination. How lightly is that scenario and what barring does the UK really have?

Well, I mentioned the fact that the UK has a trade deficit with the US, so that that does theoretically improve your bargaining position to presume, you know, assuming that Trump and his officials are willing to consider that, but you also have the UK is going to be faced if all this plays out as it could potentially play out, and it's a way it's already shaping up with the US and European tariffs on Chinese evs, is that the UK will find itself as a small, open economy, like becoming the destination for all of these goods that can no longer come into those high tariff markets. So that could be beneficial if you want to bring down the price of electric vehicles in the UK, but it could also distort the market in ways that people haven't fully appreciated. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, has signaled in recent days that she doesn't have a lot of appetite for putting up tariffs and doesn't see that that must have an option for the UK on its own. That may not be a choice that you can fully make independently, but it's going to be a real difficult ride. I mean, it could be that we see, you know, this having some disinflationary poll in the UK as well.

Well, I mentioned the fact that the UK has a trade deficit with the US, so that that does theoretically improve your bargaining position to presume, you know, assuming that Trump and his officials are willing to consider that, but you also have the UK is going to be faced if all this plays out as it could potentially play out, and it's a way it's already shaping up with the US and European tariffs on Chinese evs, is that the UK will find itself as a small, open economy, like becoming the destination for all of these goods that can no longer come into those high tariff markets. So that could be beneficial if you want to bring down the price of electric vehicles in the UK, but it could also distort the market in ways that people haven't fully appreciated. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, has signaled in recent days that she doesn't have a lot of appetite for putting up tariffs and doesn't see that that must have an option for the UK on its own. That may not be a choice that you can fully make independently, but it's going to be a real difficult ride. I mean, it could be that we see, you know, this having some disinflationary poll in the UK as well.

In terms of the UK's relationship with the US, the long desired trade deal, is there a possibility that it's back on the table.

In terms of the UK's relationship with the US, the long desired trade deal, is there a possibility that it's back on the table.

And we also have.

And we also have.

The situation of who to send to the US as ambassador for Breton. You know, again, Nigel Farage was one of the people actually celebrating the chump victory.

The situation of who to send to the US as ambassador for Breton. You know, again, Nigel Farage was one of the people actually celebrating the chump victory.

Is there a strong case for it to be Farosh?

Is there a strong case for it to be Farosh?

There may be a case for it, but I don't know if that's one that anyone in the Labor government would be willing to listen to. I mean, we've heard names floating around of David Millivan or Peter Mandelson. You know, the question of whether that, you know, could is a viable option now is you know, certainly you wonder how much either of those potential picks could could bring to the table in a Trump presidence. Yeah, it's going to be a big question. There's also a question of David Lammy's future as Foreign Secretary given his past comments with Trump. You know, they've tried to highlight how much effort they've made to reach out across the Atlantic and make ties with the Trump camp. We'll see the results of that in the in the coming days potentially when you know Starmar travels to the the G twenty, you know, we'll have to see if he if he makes any overtures to Trump in between, in what sort of response he gets.

There may be a case for it, but I don't know if that's one that anyone in the Labor government would be willing to listen to. I mean, we've heard names floating around of David Millivan or Peter Mandelson. You know, the question of whether that, you know, could is a viable option now is you know, certainly you wonder how much either of those potential picks could could bring to the table in a Trump presidence. Yeah, it's going to be a big question. There's also a question of David Lammy's future as Foreign Secretary given his past comments with Trump. You know, they've tried to highlight how much effort they've made to reach out across the Atlantic and make ties with the Trump camp. We'll see the results of that in the in the coming days potentially when you know Starmar travels to the the G twenty, you know, we'll have to see if he if he makes any overtures to Trump in between, in what sort of response he gets.

Kevin, We've had a war on our doorstep for two and a half years now. Trump has been clear that he wants policy on Ukraine to be to be different. Does he go in and do a deal with Putin in the next few months and how does you react to that?

Kevin, We've had a war on our doorstep for two and a half years now. Trump has been clear that he wants policy on Ukraine to be to be different. Does he go in and do a deal with Putin in the next few months and how does you react to that?

Well, obviously, I think there's probably a few countries that are more worried about what the Trump presidency means. In Ukraine, and you can see in Vladimir Zelensky's initial reaction that he's trying to put the best possible spin on it. It's basically saying that, you know, he's essentially hoping to use Trump's strength to to you know, work towards some kind of peace deal. But of course that means, you know, from Ukraine's perspective, they want that on their terms, not on Russia's terms. And the real concern is that that Trump that Trump is going to basically weaken Ukraine's leverage, particularly he follows through on what his his what appear to be his threats to cut off USA to Ukraine. So there's been a little bit of effort by the Group of Seven Nations to try to Trump proof some of the aid going to Ukraine. Hence the effort to create a loan program based on the profits of Russian frozen assets. But that's only going to last so long Ukraine remains super reliant on US military aid, particularly with Europe just not able to sort of step in and sort of make up for any any loss there. And so I think that the real question is going to be how hard Trump actually presses either side, whether he can press either side, Because at the same time, Vladimir Putin's going to look at the situation. He's advancing, his trips are making some gains in Ukraine. He now has Trump in the White House. Maybe suddenly there's less pressure and less interest, even less interest from Putin's side to make a deal at this point. So I think that I think there's there's As I say, there's probably almost no one more worried than than Zelensky about what this means, particularly given some of the acrimonious history between him and Trump.

Well, obviously, I think there's probably a few countries that are more worried about what the Trump presidency means. In Ukraine, and you can see in Vladimir Zelensky's initial reaction that he's trying to put the best possible spin on it. It's basically saying that, you know, he's essentially hoping to use Trump's strength to to you know, work towards some kind of peace deal. But of course that means, you know, from Ukraine's perspective, they want that on their terms, not on Russia's terms. And the real concern is that that Trump that Trump is going to basically weaken Ukraine's leverage, particularly he follows through on what his his what appear to be his threats to cut off USA to Ukraine. So there's been a little bit of effort by the Group of Seven Nations to try to Trump proof some of the aid going to Ukraine. Hence the effort to create a loan program based on the profits of Russian frozen assets. But that's only going to last so long Ukraine remains super reliant on US military aid, particularly with Europe just not able to sort of step in and sort of make up for any any loss there. And so I think that the real question is going to be how hard Trump actually presses either side, whether he can press either side, Because at the same time, Vladimir Putin's going to look at the situation. He's advancing, his trips are making some gains in Ukraine. He now has Trump in the White House. Maybe suddenly there's less pressure and less interest, even less interest from Putin's side to make a deal at this point. So I think that I think there's there's As I say, there's probably almost no one more worried than than Zelensky about what this means, particularly given some of the acrimonious history between him and Trump.

Kevin, thank you so much for your thoughts. Kevin White, Lawy's Bloomberg's Brussels bureau chief, and we've also been joined by Brandan Scott to Bloomberg's UK Economy and Government Managing Editor. Thank you to both of you for joining us this morning. As we think about digest, Donald Trump elected us forty seventh President.

Kevin, thank you so much for your thoughts. Kevin White, Lawy's Bloomberg's Brussels bureau chief, and we've also been joined by Brandan Scott to Bloomberg's UK Economy and Government Managing Editor. Thank you to both of you for joining us this morning. As we think about digest, Donald Trump elected us forty seventh President.

Of the US.

Of the US.

Not all the tallying is absolutely final, but he's headed to the White House.

Not all the tallying is absolutely final, but he's headed to the White House.

Yeah, and undoubtedly some big opportunities as well as threats for the UK. A lots of difficult decisions for the labor government to make over this, not least tariffs as we mentioned in the show. Some big trade policy decisions to do as well.

Yeah, and undoubtedly some big opportunities as well as threats for the UK. A lots of difficult decisions for the labor government to make over this, not least tariffs as we mentioned in the show. Some big trade policy decisions to do as well.

Yeah, that's it from us for today.

Yeah, that's it from us for today.

If you like the program, don't forget to subscribe and give it five stars so that other people can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.

If you like the program, don't forget to subscribe and give it five stars so that other people can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.

This episode was produced by James Walcock and our audio engineer was Sean Grosta, Makia, I'm.

This episode was produced by James Walcock and our audio engineer was Sean Grosta, Makia, I'm.

New and Potts and I'm Caroline. Hepget and we'll be back with more tomorrow. This is Bloomberg.

New and Potts and I'm Caroline. Hepget and we'll be back with more tomorrow. This is Bloomberg.

Bloomberg UK Politics. Listen weekdays at noon on DAB digital radio in London

Bloomberg UK Politics. Listen weekdays at noon on DAB digital radio in London