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All too often young people in our country have been let down, not given access to the right opportunities or training in their community, and that's created an over reliance in our economy on higher and higher levels of migration. As a system, it cannot be right that some people don't get to feel the pride of making a contribution the dignity of work.

All too often young people in our country have been let down, not given access to the right opportunities or training in their community, and that's created an over reliance in our economy on higher and higher levels of migration. As a system, it cannot be right that some people don't get to feel the pride of making a contribution the dignity of work.

That was Kerri Steimer speaking last month to business leaders at the Farnborough Air Show. Today we've had the latest figures on migration into the UK, bringing the issue back to the forefront of politics. Welcome to Bloomberg UK Politics. I'm Stephen Carroll.

That was Kerri Steimer speaking last month to business leaders at the Farnborough Air Show. Today we've had the latest figures on migration into the UK, bringing the issue back to the forefront of politics. Welcome to Bloomberg UK Politics. I'm Stephen Carroll.

And I'm James Walcock. And Stephen, I think some of our listeners would be forgiven for thinking we're stuck here in a loop. New data is out. The British public are reconcerned about whether the government can control migration, and we've got a Prime Minister giving a stir sort of wording on that he can get a grip on the issue. Reminds me very much of the rewanded debate we've had and YouGov polling puts this as a hot button issue migration that is for going back years. It's down from a peak in surveys from before the Brexit referendum. But then, something that is different about the conversation we're going to have today is the recent far right riots we've had in the UK, which were driven by this strong anti immigrant, anti asylum seeker rhetoric. And so while the Prime Minister Keres Starma wants to focus on skills and the economy and training British workers for the jobs of the future, he's also going to be asked questions about the numbers of both legal and illegal migrants coming into the UK.

And I'm James Walcock. And Stephen, I think some of our listeners would be forgiven for thinking we're stuck here in a loop. New data is out. The British public are reconcerned about whether the government can control migration, and we've got a Prime Minister giving a stir sort of wording on that he can get a grip on the issue. Reminds me very much of the rewanded debate we've had and YouGov polling puts this as a hot button issue migration that is for going back years. It's down from a peak in surveys from before the Brexit referendum. But then, something that is different about the conversation we're going to have today is the recent far right riots we've had in the UK, which were driven by this strong anti immigrant, anti asylum seeker rhetoric. And so while the Prime Minister Keres Starma wants to focus on skills and the economy and training British workers for the jobs of the future, he's also going to be asked questions about the numbers of both legal and illegal migrants coming into the UK.

We're going to get into a discussion about immigration and publicashites and the economy in a moment, plus the conflation of many politicians of regular and irregular migration after referred to as legal and illegal migration. Let's first bring you a couple of headlines from the latest official stats we have out on this today. So in the year ending due twenty twenty four, almost one point two million visas were granted by the UK for work, study or family reasons. Just under half of those were work visas. Those numbers down eleven percent on last year, but still over double twenty nineteen levels study. Visas were another big part of that issue as well. They came down two on the year on year numbers. In the same period, just under thirty nine thousand people were detected arriving in the UK by irregular routes. That's a number also down twenty six percent from the previous year. Eighty one percent of the official stats term as irregular arrivals were via small boats and that number also down twenty nine percent on the previous year.

We're going to get into a discussion about immigration and publicashites and the economy in a moment, plus the conflation of many politicians of regular and irregular migration after referred to as legal and illegal migration. Let's first bring you a couple of headlines from the latest official stats we have out on this today. So in the year ending due twenty twenty four, almost one point two million visas were granted by the UK for work, study or family reasons. Just under half of those were work visas. Those numbers down eleven percent on last year, but still over double twenty nineteen levels study. Visas were another big part of that issue as well. They came down two on the year on year numbers. In the same period, just under thirty nine thousand people were detected arriving in the UK by irregular routes. That's a number also down twenty six percent from the previous year. Eighty one percent of the official stats term as irregular arrivals were via small boats and that number also down twenty nine percent on the previous year.

So that's the data. Now let's talk about both it and the conversations. It starts just by sort of the nature of the political situation we find ourselves in joining us now is Ben Brindle, the researcher at the Migration Observery Ben, I just want to start off by before we sort of dig into the flows of people coming to the UK follow this far more closely than we do. Why do you think migration has become such a salience, such a closely watched issue?

So that's the data. Now let's talk about both it and the conversations. It starts just by sort of the nature of the political situation we find ourselves in joining us now is Ben Brindle, the researcher at the Migration Observery Ben, I just want to start off by before we sort of dig into the flows of people coming to the UK follow this far more closely than we do. Why do you think migration has become such a salience, such a closely watched issue?

Again, well, there are a whole range of reasons for that, really, you know, it's quite difficult to sort of pinpoints and one thing. And migration has an impact not just economically but also socially as well, and people's priorities and the perspectives different, and naturally that means that the way people view migration is going to differ as well. I do think though, while saying that it's important to put things into context, as you alluded to a moment ago, the extent which people are opposed to migration, that that sort of opposition has softened when we compare sort of recent data to data from sort of the mid twenty tens, and also the salience, the extent to which people think migration is an important topic. Also, those sort of attitudes and softened as well. There's been a slight ticking up sort of the past year or so. But yeah, certainly when we compare recent data to the mid twenty tens, it appears that the opposition has softened.

Again, well, there are a whole range of reasons for that, really, you know, it's quite difficult to sort of pinpoints and one thing. And migration has an impact not just economically but also socially as well, and people's priorities and the perspectives different, and naturally that means that the way people view migration is going to differ as well. I do think though, while saying that it's important to put things into context, as you alluded to a moment ago, the extent which people are opposed to migration, that that sort of opposition has softened when we compare sort of recent data to data from sort of the mid twenty tens, and also the salience, the extent to which people think migration is an important topic. Also, those sort of attitudes and softened as well. There's been a slight ticking up sort of the past year or so. But yeah, certainly when we compare recent data to the mid twenty tens, it appears that the opposition has softened.

And when we look at the numbers of people that have entered the UK and gave some of the statistics there as well, on most measures, it's down year on year. Now that's after a peak that we'd seen and we did talk about it at the time as well. That was partly driven by people who were getting visas, who were leaving Hong Kong, a lot of people coming from Ukraine as well. They were special scenarios that had increased the net migration figures. Is the overall trend down or is this just a correction of what we've seen in previous years.

And when we look at the numbers of people that have entered the UK and gave some of the statistics there as well, on most measures, it's down year on year. Now that's after a peak that we'd seen and we did talk about it at the time as well. That was partly driven by people who were getting visas, who were leaving Hong Kong, a lot of people coming from Ukraine as well. They were special scenarios that had increased the net migration figures. Is the overall trend down or is this just a correction of what we've seen in previous years.

Well, I think it's a little bit of both. I mean, in one sense it is something of a return to normality. So for example, following the pandemic, there was a sharp rise in student immigration to the UK, a variety of reasons for that, but we expected as time progressed that this big student immigration would translate into big student immigration to the students leaving the UK. In good part because the majority of students only tend to stay in the UK for a few years, so some of this is sort of a return normality, as a say. But at the same time, there have been some policy changes made by the previous government that the Conservative government which came into force sort of in the early months of this year, and the juries still out on how much of an impact they are going to have, but it does look like they are going to reduce levels of migration going forward, and that's part of what we see in the picture today from the Home Office visa stats.

Well, I think it's a little bit of both. I mean, in one sense it is something of a return to normality. So for example, following the pandemic, there was a sharp rise in student immigration to the UK, a variety of reasons for that, but we expected as time progressed that this big student immigration would translate into big student immigration to the students leaving the UK. In good part because the majority of students only tend to stay in the UK for a few years, so some of this is sort of a return normality, as a say. But at the same time, there have been some policy changes made by the previous government that the Conservative government which came into force sort of in the early months of this year, and the juries still out on how much of an impact they are going to have, but it does look like they are going to reduce levels of migration going forward, and that's part of what we see in the picture today from the Home Office visa stats.

I think all of the difficulties for any government, be they labor conservative or other trying to kind of be seen to have a grip on this issue. Is it doesn't seem like there's a clear link between public concern and where the numbers are. I mean, then is it as simple as higher nets or illegal migration goes up and so does public anger.

I think all of the difficulties for any government, be they labor conservative or other trying to kind of be seen to have a grip on this issue. Is it doesn't seem like there's a clear link between public concern and where the numbers are. I mean, then is it as simple as higher nets or illegal migration goes up and so does public anger.

I think it's really interesting when you dig into the numbers on public attitudes and look in a bit more depth. So in opinion surveys, when the public are asked would you like to see levels of migration come down? There is majority support for that. But then if you ask about specific groups, so you can ask about different types of workers for example, UH care workers, or a sort of a bit more widely so, say Ukrainians or international students, groups like this, For most of those specific groups, the public would actually like more migration of those types. She sort of this strange picture where people would like less migration overall, but would like more migration of the components which make up that overall number.

I think it's really interesting when you dig into the numbers on public attitudes and look in a bit more depth. So in opinion surveys, when the public are asked would you like to see levels of migration come down? There is majority support for that. But then if you ask about specific groups, so you can ask about different types of workers for example, UH care workers, or a sort of a bit more widely so, say Ukrainians or international students, groups like this, For most of those specific groups, the public would actually like more migration of those types. She sort of this strange picture where people would like less migration overall, but would like more migration of the components which make up that overall number.

So how do we explain that? Is it that people are listening to politicians who are instrumentalizing the figures in all sorts of ways to their own political ends, or is it just that people haven't thought through what the actual implication of having fewer people coming into the country actually means.

So how do we explain that? Is it that people are listening to politicians who are instrumentalizing the figures in all sorts of ways to their own political ends, or is it just that people haven't thought through what the actual implication of having fewer people coming into the country actually means.

I think I think it's a mix of different things. You know, in terms of the statements that politicians make, you know, it's not just those statements shaping public opinion, but it works the other way as well. So you know, politicians will try and represent parts of the electorates, so that sort of a two way street. And I mean, are there are groups that public would like to see less migration are going to sort of bankers is one group when it comes to occupations, and then also people coming across the channel on small boats. People would like to see those figures reduced as well. So I think that the two views, while sort of slightly inconsistent, you know, it's possible to see why people can hold both of those views at the same time.

I think I think it's a mix of different things. You know, in terms of the statements that politicians make, you know, it's not just those statements shaping public opinion, but it works the other way as well. So you know, politicians will try and represent parts of the electorates, so that sort of a two way street. And I mean, are there are groups that public would like to see less migration are going to sort of bankers is one group when it comes to occupations, and then also people coming across the channel on small boats. People would like to see those figures reduced as well. So I think that the two views, while sort of slightly inconsistent, you know, it's possible to see why people can hold both of those views at the same time.

I think the reason why we started this way is because we now want to talk talk to you about what the policy leavers labor are doing. Based on what you've said about politicians try and represent the constituents they're trying to win over. What do you view labors approach, What kind of policies are they trying to achieve with with what they're doing, you know, are they trying to get down illegal migration or boost net migration? What is the kind of goal based on what they're doing.

I think the reason why we started this way is because we now want to talk talk to you about what the policy leavers labor are doing. Based on what you've said about politicians try and represent the constituents they're trying to win over. What do you view labors approach, What kind of policies are they trying to achieve with with what they're doing, you know, are they trying to get down illegal migration or boost net migration? What is the kind of goal based on what they're doing.

So on both regular or legal migration and on irregular migration, the Labor Party would like numbers to come down. This is quite similar to the previous Conservative government as well, but the Labor Party would take are going to take different approaches to the previous government, so on net migration levels, whereas the Conservatives were sort of more trying to restrict the supplier visas labour, sort of taking it from the other approach and trying to restrict the demand for visas. And the way that they're going to do that is by trying to reduce the reliance of certain employers and industries on migrant labor. So sectors which request high numbers of visas are going to be tasks for putting in place workforce training plans essentially to sort of train up and fill skills gaps using workers who are already in the UK and in doing that mean that they don't need to turn towards migrant labor. Then when it comes to a regular migration, the sort of flagship policy here is sort of a border command, a border security command, and this would really look at smashing the gangs is the term that they use. Now this isn't as much of a difference compared to the Conservative government. The Conservative Government were also quite hot on enforcement, but I think it's going to be a different approach. The tricky thing when saying about how effective that might be is, first we don't sort of have some of the more detailed aspects of this plan. Also, enforcement something of a black box, and so suggest the evidence that it can work quite effectively, but we don't know sort of which parts of enforcement work more effectively, so it can make it quite difficult to evaluate until we actually see what what happens with figures.

So on both regular or legal migration and on irregular migration, the Labor Party would like numbers to come down. This is quite similar to the previous Conservative government as well, but the Labor Party would take are going to take different approaches to the previous government, so on net migration levels, whereas the Conservatives were sort of more trying to restrict the supplier visas labour, sort of taking it from the other approach and trying to restrict the demand for visas. And the way that they're going to do that is by trying to reduce the reliance of certain employers and industries on migrant labor. So sectors which request high numbers of visas are going to be tasks for putting in place workforce training plans essentially to sort of train up and fill skills gaps using workers who are already in the UK and in doing that mean that they don't need to turn towards migrant labor. Then when it comes to a regular migration, the sort of flagship policy here is sort of a border command, a border security command, and this would really look at smashing the gangs is the term that they use. Now this isn't as much of a difference compared to the Conservative government. The Conservative Government were also quite hot on enforcement, but I think it's going to be a different approach. The tricky thing when saying about how effective that might be is, first we don't sort of have some of the more detailed aspects of this plan. Also, enforcement something of a black box, and so suggest the evidence that it can work quite effectively, but we don't know sort of which parts of enforcement work more effectively, so it can make it quite difficult to evaluate until we actually see what what happens with figures.

Will the UK always need net migration? I accept the point that you're making that you know, trying to encourage industries to train up people is a way of perhaps reducing their reliance on migrant workers. But UK is an aging population. Are they not going to need new workers to try and sustain economic growth? Another big goal of the government.

Will the UK always need net migration? I accept the point that you're making that you know, trying to encourage industries to train up people is a way of perhaps reducing their reliance on migrant workers. But UK is an aging population. Are they not going to need new workers to try and sustain economic growth? Another big goal of the government.

When it comes to the aging population, and it's not just about having more people in the UK, because at its heart, the aging population is a financial problem that they're more people not working, drawing on pensions, using health care services, and so really to the extent that migration is a part of the solution to that, it's about having migrants who contribute more to the public finances than they take out. Now, if we look at the data on public finances, we see that overall migrants contribute about as much as they take out. The impacts are very very small there, but there will be differences between different groups of migrants. So for example, those who are in employment and particularly those who are in higher paying roles have a more positive contribution than those who aren't in the labor market, and those who have children as well, because see education services can be quite expensive. So that's sort of the overall picture. Of course, that might be that there are vacancies in particular areas. So social care, for example, is one where there are currently quite high vacancy rates. Obviously that's the population gets older, demand on social care services might increase. And so while overall it's not just about people in these specific areas, there might be skills gaps which need to be filled. But of course it's not just migrant labor that can fill those gaps. There are workers in the UK that could work, for example, in the social care sector and fill gaps there too.

When it comes to the aging population, and it's not just about having more people in the UK, because at its heart, the aging population is a financial problem that they're more people not working, drawing on pensions, using health care services, and so really to the extent that migration is a part of the solution to that, it's about having migrants who contribute more to the public finances than they take out. Now, if we look at the data on public finances, we see that overall migrants contribute about as much as they take out. The impacts are very very small there, but there will be differences between different groups of migrants. So for example, those who are in employment and particularly those who are in higher paying roles have a more positive contribution than those who aren't in the labor market, and those who have children as well, because see education services can be quite expensive. So that's sort of the overall picture. Of course, that might be that there are vacancies in particular areas. So social care, for example, is one where there are currently quite high vacancy rates. Obviously that's the population gets older, demand on social care services might increase. And so while overall it's not just about people in these specific areas, there might be skills gaps which need to be filled. But of course it's not just migrant labor that can fill those gaps. There are workers in the UK that could work, for example, in the social care sector and fill gaps there too.

We've been talking about there's almost like quite an academic debate then, and we can just sort of tweak the system, tweak calibrate the numbers and get the right approach. There is something that this is a big international problem. UK is not the only comrent of the face of this, and I think part of the frustration of the public is the government doesn't have control intrinsically, we can't control where people go around the world. Right, there is an element to this which is irreducibly outside the government's control. Right, how large is that?

We've been talking about there's almost like quite an academic debate then, and we can just sort of tweak the system, tweak calibrate the numbers and get the right approach. There is something that this is a big international problem. UK is not the only comrent of the face of this, and I think part of the frustration of the public is the government doesn't have control intrinsically, we can't control where people go around the world. Right, there is an element to this which is irreducibly outside the government's control. Right, how large is that?

That depends on which type of migration that we're talking about. So again, thinking about regular migration, you know, it's easier to control sort of work and student migration compared to other types such as as family migration. There are going to be other policy aspects and other external factors which influence this. And in fact, if we look at the visa stats from today, we've seen that there's been a fall in international students coming to the UK. Now that could be in part because of the ban on student dependence. At the same time, it could also be to do with external factors like the currency crisis in Nigeria which makes UK universities considerably more expensive. So policy can have a role and likely has more influence in some areas, but it's also about external factors and about how immigration policy interacts with other areas of policy as well. Then when it comes to a regular migration policy, you can have a player a bit of a role, but also it's about sort of big geopolitical factors, oppressive regimes or things like this that tend to have more influence what say the UK is doing in terms of policy.

That depends on which type of migration that we're talking about. So again, thinking about regular migration, you know, it's easier to control sort of work and student migration compared to other types such as as family migration. There are going to be other policy aspects and other external factors which influence this. And in fact, if we look at the visa stats from today, we've seen that there's been a fall in international students coming to the UK. Now that could be in part because of the ban on student dependence. At the same time, it could also be to do with external factors like the currency crisis in Nigeria which makes UK universities considerably more expensive. So policy can have a role and likely has more influence in some areas, but it's also about external factors and about how immigration policy interacts with other areas of policy as well. Then when it comes to a regular migration policy, you can have a player a bit of a role, but also it's about sort of big geopolitical factors, oppressive regimes or things like this that tend to have more influence what say the UK is doing in terms of policy.

Ben, thanks so much for joining us and helping us to understand that new data we have out today. That's Ben brendled their researcher the Migration ob Retreat at the University of Oxford.

Ben, thanks so much for joining us and helping us to understand that new data we have out today. That's Ben brendled their researcher the Migration ob Retreat at the University of Oxford.

This episode was produced by tibat at Dubaio and our audio engineer was Sean Grastamachia.

This episode was produced by tibat at Dubaio and our audio engineer was Sean Grastamachia.

I'm James Wilcock and I'm Stephen Carroll. We'll be back with more on Monday. This is Bloomberg

I'm James Wilcock and I'm Stephen Carroll. We'll be back with more on Monday. This is Bloomberg