Beyond the economy, the issue of migration has remained high on the list of what matters to voters. Bloomberg's Max Ramsay explains the European Union's new long-awaited deal on immigration and asylum. We also ask Baroness Catherine Ashton, the former EU high representative for foreign affairs if Europe is experiencing a shift to the right.
Plus: Samuel Kasumu, a former special advisor to Boris Johnson, on British attitudes to immigration and identity. Hosted by Yuan Potts and Caroline Hepker.
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Karline. Want to start the show with the number today, seven hundred and forty five thousand. Now, I reckon that's one of the most significant numbers in politics this year. That was the revised estimate for net migration to the UK in twenty twenty two that was released last month. You remember the headline's many headlines are much discussion and it was by some distance the highest number ever recorded.
Having said that, the net migration numbers did start to decline this year. The provisional figure for the year to June is actually seven six hundred and seven two. India, Nigeria, China and Pakistan are the top origin countries of people coming to the UK, which I was sort of quite surprised to read, which why I mention it. And today we want to explore a bit around these issues and immigration, a debate which has never really been far from the headlines.
Yeah.
Of course you've started this off by making stop stopping at the boats one of his top five pledges at the beginning of the year, So he decided to frame his year with immigration being one of the key issues. And it's never really been out to the headlines, has it. It's been something which has been in and out of the headlines really throughout the year.
Yeah, the year, but also probably the last forty years. I mean, immigration is often seen as this kind of central issue around even the whole idea of the nation states.
Yeah.
I was looking at some of the polling actually, and as long as we've been asking that question, which as you say, goes back decades rather than years, people have always said there are too many people coming to the UK. Now, the portion of people who say that too many people goes up and down a lot. It doesn't really to correlate with the actual numbers coming, which I think is quite interesting as well. And actually the evidence that the saliency over the course of this year has actually declined a little despite the numbers going up in the last couple of years. So it's not a straightforward correlation no.
Which is fascinating Also when you think about, you know, whether it is also linked to economic insecurity and especially given the cost of living crisis that we've had. So again, the statistics are quite a complex on this issue.
Yeah, and I think a lot of polling suggests that people are keen for emigration to be controlled. I think a lot of people are unhappy that it feels that immigration is sometimes not really being controlled by the government, and perhaps the UK is better to better get a grip on where people are coming and why they're coming, then some people at least will be happier.
Yeah. Well, look, leaders from across a political spectrum have been grappling with this issue for decades. Here's a reminder of what some have said.
Net migration needs to come down radically from hundreds of thousands a year to just tens of thousands. And as we bring the migration down, so we must also make sure that Britain continues to benefit from it.
Six months can't say anything about the immigrants because you're saying that you're well, all these Eastern Europeans are coming in, thanks you bigoted woman.
The British people deserve to know which party is serious about stopping the invasion.
I think people will start to make the connection that the reason is a housing crisis is mass immigration. The reason they can't get a GP appointment is mass immigration. The reason their lives are more miserable than they were ten years ago, their quality of life is diminishing, is because of the population crisis and explosion.
So that was David Cameron they're talking about immigration. There was also Gordon Brown, so at a bravaman come into more recent times. And then also Nigel Farage of course also fairly central, you know, with his leadership around UKIP on this issue.
Also, yeah, Gordon Brown in the twenty ten election, or a minder of course that it was an election issue going back thirteen years and of course way before that as well.
And it's been a week where migration has again captured the headlines globally because the EU is hailing what it is calling and historic deal to combat illegal migration into Europe. And in France there are questions though about how constitutional governments new reforms are there and There's been already quite a fierce backlash for the EU regulations which have been a long time in the planning but have now emerged just this week.
Yeah, really important deal. We're going to get more on that shortly here in the UK. Plans to deport illegal migrants to Rwanda still shrouded in controversy after being ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. What's worth noting that we're talking about all of this in a week where junior doctors are planning to go on another strike and NHS waiting lists are near record levels. So really interesting to discuss the connection between immigration and public services, both negative and positive.
Yeah.
I want to get more detail though firstly on migration is not just an issue in Britain, it is also one for the whole of Europe. EU countries have for the first time agreed on a migration Pact, including significant new regulations to tighten asylum rules. As Europe tries to restrict migration, human rights groups have been critical, saying that it will lead to more deaths and a surge in suffering in quotes. It also follows a law passed by the French Parliament that restricts migrants access to things like welfare and also increased rules around citizenship. Joining us now to discuss is Bloomberg's reporter based in Brussels, usually Max Ramsey. But Max is actually with us in the London radio studio today. Really good to see you. Max. Just firstly talk us through the Pact on Asylum and Migration, seen to be a major new agreement. What does it involve?
Yes, and look, this has been a very challenging discussion debate within the EU. They have finally come up with this deal. This is a deal between the Member States and the Parliament that's just been agreed this week. There's still some technical work to do and then it does still need to be formally approved, but really we've passed the major step and it's a very ride ranging package. It includes everything from tightening the borders border security, introduces new ways of screening, biometric screening of asylum seekers, people arriving at the borders, and you know, I think what's particularly interesting and has really been the controversial part of this package is what to do in situations of crisis, when countries say they're facing a crisis of migration. It includes measures when a country says this that would include actually being able to redistribute migrants from countries that are receiving more. This would be countries you know, on the Mediterranean, Italy, France, Greece to countries, you know, particularly those in Eastern Europe that are receiving fewer migrants. So you know, really this would ensure that these countries that are struggling with the issue of migration are able to you know, be eased in the burden of that, and countries that don't want to take, you know, are not willing to accept redistribution of migrants will have to pay. There is this solidarity contribution, So I mean, you know, the EU has really hailed this as a massive step to trying to tackle what is a huge political issue for the block.
So saying to me that that was the heart of the deal, wasn't it is you take migrants or if you don't want to take migrants, you take the cash. Because of course a number of countries Denmark, Hungry, Poland and others, particularly in the East, who are not keen to have more immigration. How difficult was it to get twenty seven countries to agree.
Or this, and in fact they didn't manage to get twenty seven countries to agree on this. Of course, your decision making is very well confusing to say the most. But you know, this decision was done among the EU member states by qualified majority, so in fact they did not get twenty seven unanimous agreements. Poland and Hungary did not agree to this and have been very critical. Of course, Poland now has a new government, so that the issue of Poland has been, you know, to some extent solved. The Task government seems to be a supportive of this, but Hungary is still Victor Auban's administration is still against this deal, but they don't need his agreement to pass. So you know, what happens with Hungary will be interesting. It'll be difficulty. You know, he's not able to Victor Orban is not able to block this in the way that we saw him block you know, the Ukraine aid discussions, but he can of course make things difficult, and he has said he is not going to take voluntary redistributions and he's not going to pay.
Thank you, Max maxil Brussels watching Max hot flitting it from the Belgian capital. Yeah, really interesting. I heard somebody speaking on the radio yesterday about this deal, suggesting that it would mean far fewer migrants arriving in Calais. So that would be an irony, wouldn't it If the EU ended up helping to solve the UK's issues over immigration. Whether that happens or not, I think is not yet clear, but an interesting thought.
Yeah, well, we don't know whether that might affect things. I mean, of course, despite Brexit's the immigration policy here in the UK requires some degree of cooperation with other European countries, but the EU itself is dealing with conflicting priorities and opinions. And we actually recently spoke to Baroness Katherine Ashton on this subject. She is a labor life peer, but she's been deeply involved in European politics. The European Union's first High Representative for Foreign Affairs and security policy. She was also the first female EU Commissioner for Trade as it happens, and we spoke to her about the issue of migration. Started by asking her if she thinks that European countries are actually experiencing a shift, perhaps based around immigration, but a shift further into right wing politics.
There's always an election somewhere in Europe. Twenty eight then countries now twenty seven. You were always in a cycle and it's very difficult to take a snapshot at any given moment. It will give you a false impression. So if you look now, we've got Poland with Donald Tusk, you couldn't get more European than the former President of the European Council. You've got the Netherlands with what will happen there we don't quite know. You've got Slovakia, but he's been in government twice before, so he's a known quantity. And of course you've got Hungary with Victor Auburn, who has been the most consistently challenging member when it comes to, for example, support for Ukraine. Look across and it's very difficult to give a real clear picture that says it's moving right. It could be we know that there are you know Italy, we know that there are issues about what happened.
So you don't detect anything unique about the situation around Fortress Europe and really the increased focus on immigration, I mean, that's one particular issue, but you don't detect a right would move on that front.
I think in terms of immigration, it is something that is stoking a move the right, and it's being used by the right to stoke the move to them. So it's an issue that people are concerned about. They're concerned about it because what they see is greater numbers of people on the move. And with climate change, we're likely to see more people on the move. A lot of them will not come anywhere near Europe. Most of it's happening on continents, particularly on Africa, but we will see people wanting to come to Europe, and that inevitably is an issue that political parties are going to have to show that they've thought about and they have a good response to. And in the EU, the big challenges between southern states who are on the receiving end of lots of people and under the current rules, people remain in the country in which they first arrive, and the northern states and how far they're prepared to support the Southern states, both by taking people and by being willing to support and fund what's going to be necessary. And you've seen all the machinations going on in Brussels.
And we've seen the proximity between the UK Prime Minster Rishisunak and his counterpart in Italy Maloney, and their attempts to forge pretty controversial plans around dealing with the immigration challenges. We've seen immigrants come from Ukraine, of course and broadly welcomed at the start of the conflict. You mentioned Victor Orban who's been standing in the way of this funding that's so desperately needed for Ukraine to pursue its counter offensives against those Russian forces. What is your expectation think Europe essentially and ultimately gets this across the line. Is he grandstanding to unlock funds that Hungary is looking for itself. Is this a domestic political play by him? Ultimately? Do you think the EU managed to get this across the line.
I think they will. I mean, Victor Auburn likes the benefits of membership very much, but doesn't like to do the stuff that actually would make a difference to others, either in the EU or outside the EU. And if necessary, what you will have a sort of outside of the EU structure, an agreement between the other countries to produce the funds for Ukraine, with the Commission supporting that. I mean, there are lots of ways around it. Europe and the institutional framework looks very rigid when you first look at it, but they're very good at coming up with ways of fixing things or changing things. There is a problem more generally, when you've got one country able to hold up something that all of the other countries feel is really important. But let me just make one note of caution. I don't think it's true in this case, but on other issues, sometimes when a country seems to be the only one causing a problem, there are other countries breathing asidh of relief that they don't have to So not on this because I think genuinely this is Victor Alburn and Hungary holding out in their own But what you sometimes see as one country holding out is actually not quite as simple as that.
And briefly, your expectation about the relationship between the UK and Europe in the event that we get a labor government here in the UK, do you see a significant, a dramatic improvement in that relationship.
Not dramatic, but significant. I think there will be on both sides if you like, it's an opportunity to kind of have a different conversation, not trapped in the conversations of the past. I think there will be a desire to on foreign security policies have stronger relations. I see David Cameron, by the way, moving in that direction anyway. But I think also, and I do think economically, they'll be an attempt to try and make some of the difficult friction go away and actually find ways to collaborate more effectively.
So that was Baroness Catherine Ashton there discussing her thoughts on the inner workings then of EU diplomacy and her views on migration. Of course, this whole issue of migration for the EU but also for the UK may also come under growing pressure because of global conflicts but also climate change, the issue of people being displaced and moving around the world. Is it possible though, that discussing immigration in all its forms politically? Is it possible to do that without causing division? To do it more openly, perhaps more frankly, or more sensibly. Joining us now to discuss is Samuel Kasuma, who is former Special advisor to Boris Johnson on the Civil Society and Communities brief. He also served as a member of the Race Disparity Audit Advisory Board on Theresa May when she was Prime Minister. Samuel, welcome to the program.
All right, thanks for having me.
Do you think that the current discourse on immigration has the potential to make people feel like outsiders. You've written a book called The Power of the Outsider that discusses exactly this identity and the issues around this for society.
Yeah, I think it's you know, the reality is we have always had people from different parts of the world moving around. In fact, part of the reason why we've had many of the successes we've had as a Western world, for want of better terms, because of the role of migration. Having said that, we know that there were increasing pressures on public services because of things like an agent population, precious inflation, housing, etc. And so, you know, there is a way to discuss the immigration that focuses on, yes, the benefits and the need, but also the need to have control over how people are moving around. And I think there is a way to have a very mature conversation about this that doesn't necessarily isolate individuals that might feel like, you know, they are outsiders. As a result. What I would also say is being an outsider is not necessarily a bad thing. So you know, you can move somewhere feel like an outsider and still feel like you can flourish.
Is it for further that is there a good way for politicians to broach the issue? Clearly, it's something which politicians have been discussing a lot over the past year or two. Are the better ways to discuss the issue?
I think what the public wants to see is that their politicians have control over immigration and their immigration policy works, and so, you know, the average citizen and in a place like Britain, and I would argue in the US and other developing or developed countries, I just want to see that, you know, there is some kind of intentionality around how people are coming in and out of their country, and having that is a very reasonable expectation. And so politicians, they often find themselves in the position where perhaps they're not as in control as they they should be or could be for various reasons, and so they choose to dial up the rhetoric to compensate for their failures. And so we've seen that very often in the UK, where a politician will over promise and will borderline demonize folks who choose to migrate to Britain for a better life or to add value to our country, And what they're really trying to do is mark the fact that a lot of their promises have not been delivered on. So, for example, David Cameron when he became Prime Minister, promised to reduce net migration to tens of thousands, and clearly he was not successful or in achieving that, And various Fame secretaries have had similar promises not delivered on. And so you know, the challenge for a lot of politicians is, well, if I can't deliver, how else can I demonstrate that I can understand the sentiment in among many citizens? And then they choose to ramp up the rhetoric as a result.
I mean, surely that must be is what is happening with Rishi sooner and given that we gave the statistics at the start of the program about net migration, you know, reaching very high levels, and the sort of emphasis on increasingly difficult policies, ones that have been rejected in the court site they're around a bill that's surely the point at which we are in, you know, even more acutely now, yeah, I mean.
The reality is the main reason why the migration figures are so high, and I think you know, over one million people arriving on the shores of any country could reasonably be we qualify as mass migration. But the reason why the figures are so high are because of political choices that we chose, rightly or wrongly to welcome folks from Ukraine because of the war. We chose to bring folks from Hong Kong, because of the tensions over there with China. We chose to have a points based system and the shortage occupation list that was very relaxed that allowed folks to come to fill some of our jobs in health and social care. These are all political choices, arguably based on needs, but nonetheless they were choices the vastal choices. The people that arrive arrived legally, and so the tension that we have now is the realities of need versus the realities of the feelings of fear and security because of some of the wider challenges that our economies happened. So Rwanda is a case in point. You know, it's very heavy on the rhetoric, and you know, even if people could legally be sent to Rwanda, the volumes would be nowhere there as high as needed to really make a dent on our net migration figures. So yeah, again, this is the tension between rhetoric and reality, and.
They're two different There are two different sets of figures, aren't they. One is for people coming here legally to the country, perhaps to work or other things, and the other is for asylum seekers or what some called illegal migrants. I want to ask you that you were the most senior black advisor in Boris Johnson's government in twenty twenty one, so I'm really interested to understand if you if it's fair to talk about issues like race playing a part in forming opinions around immigration.
I think I mean, I don't think so, because you know, we have a prime minister ation heritage. The last I think three or four Home Secretaries have been black or Asian. The most we've had on the Boris Johnson and is divers having it in British history. And so the fears around immigration, certainly in the British context to a large extent, is around the economic pressures that people are experiencing, and maybe the ease in trying to identify immigration as the key factor driving how people think or feel. Maybe ten twenty years ago, the fact that people were different in terms of how they look might have been a more significant factor, but I don't think that that is the main driver right now. Clearly for some people it will be a driver. But I think for the majority of britzu and who are uncomfortable about the levels of migration, it's got the less to do with even dare I say this idea of cultural integration, and more to do with the economic reality that they are facing and needing to find a reason or escape for that.
Samuel, Britain's had a lot of immigration in recent years. What's your judgment about how we're doing as a multi ethnic society in comparison with some of our European neighbors.
I mean, we're clearly more advanced than pretty much all of our European neighbors. In the sense that you go to London, for example, it's an epicenter for multiculturalism. I would argue you've got people for more walks of life, racist classes, religions all in that place, and the majority of the people there get along and live side by side. Maybe perhaps not as integrated as I would like the certainly, you know, relatively harmoniously. Having said that, we still have a long way to go with it, and the challenge is because we're so far ahead of our European counterparts. You go to places like France, and it's like a whole a completely different world toward what we experience in the UK. But because we're so far ahead, very often some people feel like that gives room for us being allowed to be complacent, but there's still so much more for us to do, and they say, we live relatively harmoniously side by side, but we're not as integrated as we could be. And of course the inequality still exists in many respects because of various factors, including of course people experiencing racism. But you know, again, I always try to remind you that we've made so much progress and actually for us to think more progress, it is not just the responsibility of politicians, but all of us as citizens have to do our bit to try and make sure that we reach out to folks that we might not understand or typically hang out with, that we learn about how different people do life and we try and find ways to find common ground where it might be that they were divides.
Simuel, thank you so much for being with us today. Samuel Consumer is former special advisor to Boras Johnson on the Civil Society and Communities Brief A really interesting conversation. He's also the author of the book The Power of the Outsider. Well, that's it from us for today on conversation around immigration. If you like the pro don't forget to subscribe, give it five stars so that other people can find it on Apple, podcast, Spotify or wherever you listen, and.
Do join us tomorrow far I look back at the eventful year of British politics with Kitty Donaldson, our UK political editor. Today's episode was produced by a team Ada Bio, and our audio engineer was Max Green.
I'm New and Pots and I'm Caroline Hepker. This is Bloomberg