The British people have had enough of waiting. The time has come to act. People are really angry out there. They're angry but the referendums not being carried out for the area the politicians promises to that have been broken. Given how huge this decision is for our country, the severe consequences that will be for generations, it is time to put this back to the people and stop this Brexit chaos. We will do everything necessary to stop a disastrous no deal. You're listening to Believe the Westminster your daily guide to British politics. I'm Sebastian Salak. Good afternoon, I'm Roger Hearing. And another amazing day before an even more amazing day. Yeah, the horse trading begins, doesn't it. The race against time for Boris Johnson to sell his last minute Brexit deal to MPs before that crunch vote in the Commons tomorrow. So what we want to do throughout the next half an hour is talk through all the factions here, a lot of competing interests, and see just what the chances are of this passing. But first here from some of these people. We start with Dominic rob the Foreign Secretary. He is urging MPs to get on site and back this deal. We've got a deal which gives effect now to the referendum. We take back control of our boarders, our laws and our money. It's a cracking deal for noordin Irish business because they stay part of the UK Customs territory, but they've got seamless access to the EU Single Market. Dominic Robb the Foreign Secretary, but one of the government's key allies, the Democratic Unionist Party, have already said no, we don't want it. The DUP leader Arlene Foster and her deputy Nigel Dodds say the proposals are not in the best interests in Northern Ireland. I think it's very clear to them that we are not going to vote for the Sun Saturday. But as Nigel says, Saturday is not the end. Saturday is not even the beginning of the end, because there's a whole renge of issues that have to be sorted out. So the DP just one of the spanners in the works for Boris Johnson to get this across the line. The other comes from Labor Shadow Chancellor John McDonald saying there will be consequences for any Labor MPs who vote for the deal. The three line whip will apply and we'll expect Labor MPs to vote against this deal because it's such a poor deal. I don't believe it will pass. I think it will be defeated, but the numbers are going to be pretty close, and we'll see what happens on Saturday itself. It is going to be a fascinating day, but it's quite a perplexing day. There's an awful lot of moving parts. What could happen, what the likelihood of the various scenarios are, and what the consequences might be. Now we're going to try and provide to you a guide to the perplexed. And with us to help us do that is Matthew Goodwin, Professor of Politics, University of Kent and Senior Fellow at Chatham House, who's with us here in the studio. Matthew, thanks for being with us. Thank you. Well let's let's start, perhaps with the potential four Boris Johnson getting his deal over the line. First of all, what chance do you think he's got. I think he's got a very good chance, but I think it is it is. This is a coin toss. I mean, this could really go either way. Everything now really hinges at least in my view, and just how many of those Labor Brexitier MPs across the floor and effect actively break line with Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald's position. And if the Caroline Flint tribe within the Labor Party does not cross sufficiently over then without the d up and throwing the risk of a couple of those independent Conservatives not following the line, then Johnson will not win this vote and we will have a third likely extension as that Ben Act kicks in. So you know, it's a coin toss, and Boris Johnson's premiership is an effect on the line because if it goes well for him tomorrow, then he's going to get the big election the nice narrative, I'm the guy that delivered Brexit. Now give me a big majority and then he can go about doing the domestic policy agenda. If, on the other hand, it goes down and we enter in the vote of confidence alternative administrations, I can referendum on the table. I mean, this is a really crunch Saturday in the history of British policy. I want to pick you up on Labor because some of those MPs are in a particularly difficult position. I'm thinking, like the Caroline Flints of this world, who the Party is telling them not to back the deal, but they've been saying for some they want to deal. They've got that pressure from the outcome of the Brexit vote in their respective constituencies. What sort of a effect could the threat to to expel them from the party have on their decisions? Well, I think that will weigh on on them. I think there are sort of two camps within the possible labor defection camp, if you like that. There are the Caroline Flints of the world, who are in strongly leave seats and who I think instinctively are basically on side with Brexit anyway. And then there are what you might call the pragmatic consider as the Stephen Kinnocks of the world, who instinctively are against Brexit but have been saying vocally for much of the last three years that we need a deal and a compromise. But whenever they're presented with the deal, they tend to pull back. Now, for the last over the last twelve hours or so, labor has been turning up the volume on the issue of workers rights, saying, actually, this deal is going to completely undermine and the road workers rights. Irrespective of whether or not that's true, that is clearly aimed at the Caroline Flints of the world, backed up with the threat of expulsion. Will that be enough to tip them over? I suspect actually that they were still going to be I mean, there will still be somewhere in the region of half a dozen labor MPs that will end up crossing, but that might clearly not be enough for Johnson in the end. Okay, So that's the labor part of this. What about the independence who now? I think where they constitute was record numbers in the House members either four members of the Tory Party, former labor from all kinds areas overwhelmingly. Are they likely to go for something that could take them out of the mess? Potentially? I suppose in the case of the Conservatives who lost the whip, they could come back into the Conservative Party. Well exactly, that's one of the incentives that play on Saturday, which we probably won't talk too much about over the next few few hours, but it is working behind the scenes in the Whip's office that look, actually, if you come back on side with us, this is your path back into the Conservative Party. And I suspect most of those now independent Conservatives will end up voting with their party and Boris Johnson, not only just because there might be a pathway back, but actually because of that broader view in Westminster now echoed in some of the editorials this morning, that this is really now the time to get Brexit done and just move on. And they're aware that actually this could if this, if this goes in a very different direction, which is a defeat for Johnson, a vote of confidence, some kind of alternative administration and election campaign that becomes a little bit more complicated in many respects, this could actually continue to divide their party in a major way. And then looking towards the e r G, how many do you think we could see getting drawn away with the d up and moving in lockstep. Have we seen as we've seen him, Well, take it with a pinch of salt. I've heard there's around fifteen or so that are going to cross now that that's why Johnson's deal is very much in play, because he's getting the Jacob Reese mogs, and Stephen Baker's making nice noises, and Andrew Bridging is making nice noises, and all these people that have been problematic in the past. There will a hard core that remained loyal to the d u P. And we can see our Jenkins and people like that who are saying they're not going to cross, but I suspect a rump will go over. And so you know, in a way, you could argue that even if Johnson loses on Saturday, in a strange sort of way, the Conservative Parliamentary Party is a little bit more united and might feel as though, okay, it can now go into you because there is this view right that whatever happens on Saturday, Johnson is actually in a good position. I mean, if he wins a deal, he's the prime minister who's delivered Brexit. Let's move on and reform the country. If he loses a deal, he's a prime minister that was stopped by the Brexit blocking Romain establishment. In quotations, let's now run the most populous general election campaign that British politics has ever seen. But I was going to go onto that. Wat's the account. If he wins, then things proceed forward. Will the legislation even be possible to do in the time necessary to get us out biox over the thirty one which he's nailed down. I think in theory that there is probably time, but again there are lots of stumbling blocks, given the numbers are so tight, and the one of the things that we are going to see on Saturday is this is one of the likely things we're going to see on Saturday, is the let Win Amendment, which is trying to make this exact point that actually there is not sufficient time to get the legislation through. Therefore, we should delay the approval of the deal so that we can take account of that possibility, and that might might actually command majority support in the House, which would take the fizz out of the vote on Saturday, would make it a little bit less consequential. But assuming Johnson's deal is passed, they could in theory Russia legislation through or alternatively, alongside what would be a very small technical extension endorsed by the EU who simply want to get want to get this off the table. Would the tour is actually accept it, because I mean, it's so much the ditch that he would die in, or the last line or whatever it is. He's nailed it so hard. Would it even be acceptable to have even a time extension? Think the symbolic significance of the vote passing after May's deal failed to pass three times, and that Johnson would then be able to say, look, I now command the majority in the House. The Brexit deal has been signed off by MPs. Now we've got to dot the eyes and cross the t s. I don't think there'd be a political problem with that, and of course that that that deadline was always Johnson's own. Making the whole view in number ten is essentially get to that election as quickly as possible, So ram get the legislation through um present the packages were now out, Let's now reform Britain and get to that get to that election. Is the pressure from the Tories who are booted out of the party to make this a confidence issue as well, because you could argue that it's only fair that if the previous one was, this one should be as well. So there is a rumor of you that Johnson could effectively make it a confidence issue in the coming houts, and if he feels that perhaps the numbers are not going in his direction, that an extra incentive for the Independent Conservatives could be Look, actually I'm to make this a confidence motion. And it's not only now about getting Brexit done. It's also directly about stopping Jeremy Corbyn or the Labor Party from taking control and losing Brexit forever. I'm not entirely convinced he's going to go that far. I think he might feel quietly confident with the numbers that he's got. I mean, look at the optics of of Johnson in Brussels. That was a very confident, optimistic prime minister. The Whips Office will have been keeping him constantly updated, so I I you know my view. I think he's quietly confident, but he wants he almost wants that no, they a confidence so that he can go to the country. That's kind of the point. Isn't it an election off the bank of this because the Government of National Unity seems a much less likely option. Well, that's why I think either outcome is good for Johnson. I mean, if he gets a deal, like I say, is the guy's deliver Brexit. If he doesn't get the deal, he's a guy that was blocked by the remain establishment. Now a few people and social media and so on are picking this up, but if you look at the data on this, and the fundamentals are clear. The Conservative Party is strengthening across every different polling house. Whether it's depending on how it measu as vote recall, and there's a bit of a debate about that, but essentially the Conservative position is strengthening. Johnson's leadership ratings for the first time since entering down the Street this week, He's now more popular among more popular than Jeremy Corbin, not only among leavers, but among women eighteen to twenty four year olds in Londoners, which is quite an achievement given that those are the strongholds for the remain vote and in general. You know, I actually think Johnson's metrics are pretty decent, which is why I mean, I know internally Number ten are nervous about some of their internal polling numbers. But if you just transfer the numbers in the average in the opinion polls right now, you're looking at a Conservative majority between fourty and seventies, somewhere in that range. Let's have a look through these papers, Rudder. You've got the Times, yea. Indeed, The Times has taken of you essentially pro the deal. They say, just do it. Mr Johnson's deal represents a reasonable compromise by both sides and it's a better outcome for Britain than Mrs May's deal. Crucially, the deal will allow Britain to pursue an independent trade policy, which leaves see is one of the main benet fits of Brexit, which watch could have been constrained and the Mrs Mays deal. Ear leaders, it says, have already said enough doubt to signal that another extension is not guaranteed and would surely be unlikely for any purpose than a referendum that looks very hard to bring about. No rational MP the time says should be prepared to take that risk, and then Arline Foster in the Belfast Telegraph her own view, of course, and not backing this deal. She says, we regret that this is a deal that we cannot support. We do not believe it's in the best economic interests of Northern Ireland. More should have been secured from Europe. Tomorrow. Our members of Parliament will oppose a proposal. This, of course, is one of the big roadblocks for Boris Johnson if he is to get this deal passed. Now the ft has come out in favor essentially of a referendum. They say Mr Johnson portrays a buccaneering future for a Britain sliding across the globe signing free trade trade deals. It's business freed to thrive in a light touch regulatory environment. Yet by shifting to less advantageous trade terms of the UK's closest neighbor and biggest export market, the reality threatens to be very different. It's says the UK and are changing. Europe think Tank estimates that trade losses and more restricted migration under the Johnson Deal would reduce UK income per capita by two point three over a decade against one point nine in Mrs May's deal. It says in voters will offered a leave option whose endpoint was undefined, which was are sold on a bogus prospectus. Now they know exactly where the path leaves, they deserve a chance to decide whether they still wish to follow it. So this is a really interesting prospect and this is something you want to speak to Matthew Goodwin about. He's still whether he's Professor of Politics at the University of Kent and senior fellow at Chatham House. Matthew, what happens then? What are the chances of a confirmatory vote being added to this and then passing. So I don't think there'll be an amendment on Saturday that would win majority support. That's why the People's Vote people have backed off. But there could come an amendment, say the deal doesn't pass, there could be an attempt next week week after to try and get that amendment on the table, the last big push for a second referendum. The problem for those that one one is that there isn't a clear support yet in the House, even though we're going to have people marching again this weekend in London asking for what they call a finals say. What's interesting in the polling is that there is now a consistent lead for Remain at a second referendum above and beyond the margin of error. That if you take the poll of polls that my colleagues, Sir John Curtis runs fifty Remain forty seven percent Leave. And the other thing to add, of course, is that there have been some fundamental changes since the referendum. Remainers and leavers haven't changed their minds, but people who didn't vote at the first referendum have non voters and now decisively remain. But will they vote So this is really interesting because this is essentially the dominic Cummings playbook right, targeting non voters. Are they going to give them a taste of their medicine? Well, that's I think that is something that we're going to potentially see if we get to that second referendum. Remember, because leavers and remainers are so polarized, the next referendum won't be about if there is one, won't be about arguments. It will be about differential turnout. Who can mobilize their own site to the maximum. And Cummings believes quite strongly, I think that abstainers and non voters, a lot of Brexit voters didn't turn out in twenty seventeen. They just went back into apathy. His whole strategies to get them out remains. Whole strategy will be find the non voting remainders and get them out. Everybody wants the untouched crew. But I suppose that there's interesting point in all that, which is, this is going to be a vote if it happens, in which you have three options as I understand it, no, no Brexit, no deal or the deal. Now, if it's you can see in a referendum, ordinary referendum, Okay, yes or no simple. When you have three options, it does become rather more complicated. Potentially you might not even get a decisive element out of it. Well, the first thing to say is, if you look at the Constitution units estimates, the quick as you can really have a second referendum is going to be about one twenty two weeks. So for argument's sake, if there was an amendment and it got support, we'd be looking at spring the earlier. So the second thing to say is question testing alone takes twelve weeks, right, The Electoral Commission will have to take about three months to test questions. There is a rumor, I think there was an emerging view at least that the preference would be a two stage referendum, which would be remain Leave first round and then soft deal hard deal if Leave wins the first round. But obviously there are lots of you can already begin to see the problems with some of that, indeed, and then of course you know what's the message and who are the messengers. Momentum two days ago came out and said they think Keir Starmer and Jess Phillips should lead on the labor side, and Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell should be quiet essentially. But on the of course we also know that on the Leave side at the first referendum, Boris Johnson and Nigel Ferage together had very powerful leadership effects. They really did drive the Leave vote. But now, of course they're not talking and they're saying they're not going to do a pact. So it would all be really interesting. Will we get there though, I don't know. I put the percentage chance of a second referendum. Another issue though is what is the measure of success? Because you can look at margin, you can look at turn out. This is something that we've got to consider as well. Right, if we do indeed get there, yeah, I would be amazed if we replicated the seventy turn out at the first referendum. I just think, you know, the public opinion now is just so everybody's fatigued, exhausted. If we have a general election or second referendum this year, next year, you know this is going to be you know, yet another major nationwide election, you know, independence referenum in scotlande general election, sixteen referendum, the seventeen general election, the European Parliament elections. How people are tired? People that fatigue as kicking in. Of course, the other thing to say briefly is this is why the Lib Dems are surging. One of the remarkable things that few people have picked up on is that now about forty of remainers are siding with the Lib Dems, which is why the Lib Dems are only two points behind Labor in the polls. One thing we could see if the deal flops on Saturday and we head into another sort of six month period of chaos in churn, We're not too far off seeing what I'd call the reverse nineteen twenty two scenario, with the Lib Dems leapfrogging over Labor in the national polls, like Labor leap frogged over liberals in the early twentieth century. I mean, this is now becoming a distinctive rebirth of liberal England. That would be a fascinating scenario. I suppose that's we've we've moved out into the bit I wanted to get into next, which is, Okay, we've we've game played what happens if you wins? We gameplayed what happens if it goes to another reference? What if it just I mean, one thing we know about this parliament is they've decided. They've only really ever decided what they don't like, not what they do. So if we have the same thing again and they don't like the deal but they don't actually vote for anything else, what happens, Well, assuming that the ben Act does kick in and there isn't a loophole in a sort of way, that number ten can somehow plunge us out of the EU on one. If the ben Act kicks in, it is then highly likely that we will have a general election at some point between now and early twenty And of course that election becomes far more complicated really for everybody. I mean, Johnson's actually emerges as the strongest because he's able to say, look, I was blocked on Brexit again by the remain establishment for Labor. The Brexit divide remains very salient for the Lib Dems. It's quite easy. It's just keep rallying remainers. Whereas if Johnson's deal passes, it becomes even more complicated for the other parties because Johnson again is able to say I'm the guy that deliver Brexit. Labor Party meanwhile, in a st range way, they can say, Okay, Brexit's done, let's talk about what we want to talk about, which is economics, and that brings in the corbonomics agenda, so nationalization, workers on company boards, possibility of wealth taxes and non doom staff and the later stuff on bankers bonuses. All of that comes into play, and the Lib Dems are kind of neutralized because the Lib Dems are now saying, oh, well, we're out of the EU effectively, but let's go back in, which is Tom Break said to us yesterday. They wouldn't automatically compare campaign to get back here. Okay. So the interesting thing is the campaign to rejoin is fundamentally different from the campaign to remain. Rejoining means a whole host of things that the Liberal Democrats are not entirely sure have begun to think about. It does mean rejoining through the Euro. It means more budgetary commitments, it means much closer integration, etcetera, etcetera. And to be frank, the EU wouldn't even be up for it. I don't think. I think the EU now would say we've had the half in and half out partner, We've had the awkward partner for thirty forty years. I think now it's time just to move on. And consolidate with the people that do want to be in the club. That's really interesting. Do we get a position where the idea of a government of national unity then it comes back on the table. If Johnson loses a deal, then it's likely we will move quickly into some kind of vote of no confidence. Obviously he's got a deficit of minus forty five ish in the House, so it was very unlikely he would win. And then, of course the big question is who would lead an alternative administration. We then have fourteen days for that administration to come together. Would it be Margaret Beckett, would it be Harriet Harmon? Would it be Kent Clark? Who would it be? Presumably Kent Clark will be back in the Conservative fold by that point if he's voted for the deal. Let's see, I need to need to check that. And then what is the alternative administration? And of course that's the point where you're going to get a lot of moderate saying I'm not going to put Jeremy Corbyn into number ten to the fourteen days expires, and then we go into the election anyway, because no government not John Burko suggested as someone that Corbyn could except I don't think that's a credible suggestion. And I think all of that plays into the coming strategy. Now, remember most voters are tuning into the noise, right. All most voters will see right now is Johnson got a deal that most people weren't expecting Johnson to get. And then the second message at the weekend could be MP's block Johnson that in effect, this is the dominant coming, that's the narrative. And then Johnson just says to everybody, look, I'm trying to deliver on what the people ask for. Um, so back on this government of national Unity idea. Corbyn really seems to be the roadblock here because there's no incentive for the Lib Dems. Certainly they're trying to court Tory voters at an election to allow Corbin to lead this. Absolutely, the Lib Dems won't work with Corbin because they don't want to. You know, they're riding high. They don't want to break their own legs. The Labor moderates don't want to legitimize Corbin because they view him as a fundamental block to the revival of new Labor. Moderate Social Democracy and the SMP are deeply dubious, right, I mean, the SMP, probably of all of them, are most open to it because they think Corbyn will give them a second referendum. The question then is can Corbin get to the numb get the numbers right at an election, And that's a really interesting thing. I expect the labor vote to rally. I do think the labor vote will rally for a number of reasons. I think no Squeeza Green's. I think a lot of Lib Dems will look at their seats locally and realize the Lib Dems aren't even in contention in those seats. And I think the labor vote will come back up to the high twenties at low thirties then with a strong SMP performance and maybe the Lib Dems hitting the Conservatives in the South. Yes, I think Boris Johnson's strategy is completely clear, and I think he would be the favorite. But I wouldn't buy into all of these narratives of like massive sweeping conservative majorities. Matthew, let me ask you the question very finally that you should never ask a professor of politics. Can you call it for tomorrow? What do you think it will happen? You know, my instinct is that it is going to come incredibly close, but it won't pass. That's that's my instinct, but that is not based on anything other than the fact that I've been saying for the last few months. Most plausible scenario is he loses and we go into an election. Bloomberg Westminster listen week days at noon on D A B digital radio in London.

The British people have had enough of waiting. The time has come to act. People are really angry out there. They're angry but the referendums not being carried out for the area the politicians promises to that have been broken. Given how huge this decision is for our country, the severe consequences that will be for generations, it is time to put this back to the people and stop this Brexit chaos. We will do everything necessary to stop a disastrous no deal. You're listening to Believe the Westminster your daily guide to British politics. I'm Sebastian Salak. Good afternoon, I'm Roger Hearing. And another amazing day before an even more amazing day. Yeah, the horse trading begins, doesn't it. The race against time for Boris Johnson to sell his last minute Brexit deal to MPs before that crunch vote in the Commons tomorrow. So what we want to do throughout the next half an hour is talk through all the factions here, a lot of competing interests, and see just what the chances are of this passing. But first here from some of these people. We start with Dominic rob the Foreign Secretary. He is urging MPs to get on site and back this deal. We've got a deal which gives effect now to the referendum. We take back control of our boarders, our laws and our money. It's a cracking deal for noordin Irish business because they stay part of the UK Customs territory, but they've got seamless access to the EU Single Market. Dominic Robb the Foreign Secretary, but one of the government's key allies, the Democratic Unionist Party, have already said no, we don't want it. The DUP leader Arlene Foster and her deputy Nigel Dodds say the proposals are not in the best interests in Northern Ireland. I think it's very clear to them that we are not going to vote for the Sun Saturday. But as Nigel says, Saturday is not the end. Saturday is not even the beginning of the end, because there's a whole renge of issues that have to be sorted out. So the DP just one of the spanners in the works for Boris Johnson to get this across the line. The other comes from Labor Shadow Chancellor John McDonald saying there will be consequences for any Labor MPs who vote for the deal. The three line whip will apply and we'll expect Labor MPs to vote against this deal because it's such a poor deal. I don't believe it will pass. I think it will be defeated, but the numbers are going to be pretty close, and we'll see what happens on Saturday itself. It is going to be a fascinating day, but it's quite a perplexing day. There's an awful lot of moving parts. What could happen, what the likelihood of the various scenarios are, and what the consequences might be. Now we're going to try and provide to you a guide to the perplexed. And with us to help us do that is Matthew Goodwin, Professor of Politics, University of Kent and Senior Fellow at Chatham House, who's with us here in the studio. Matthew, thanks for being with us. Thank you. Well let's let's start, perhaps with the potential four Boris Johnson getting his deal over the line. First of all, what chance do you think he's got. I think he's got a very good chance, but I think it is it is. This is a coin toss. I mean, this could really go either way. Everything now really hinges at least in my view, and just how many of those Labor Brexitier MPs across the floor and effect actively break line with Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald's position. And if the Caroline Flint tribe within the Labor Party does not cross sufficiently over then without the d up and throwing the risk of a couple of those independent Conservatives not following the line, then Johnson will not win this vote and we will have a third likely extension as that Ben Act kicks in. So you know, it's a coin toss, and Boris Johnson's premiership is an effect on the line because if it goes well for him tomorrow, then he's going to get the big election the nice narrative, I'm the guy that delivered Brexit. Now give me a big majority and then he can go about doing the domestic policy agenda. If, on the other hand, it goes down and we enter in the vote of confidence alternative administrations, I can referendum on the table. I mean, this is a really crunch Saturday in the history of British policy. I want to pick you up on Labor because some of those MPs are in a particularly difficult position. I'm thinking, like the Caroline Flints of this world, who the Party is telling them not to back the deal, but they've been saying for some they want to deal. They've got that pressure from the outcome of the Brexit vote in their respective constituencies. What sort of a effect could the threat to to expel them from the party have on their decisions? Well, I think that will weigh on on them. I think there are sort of two camps within the possible labor defection camp, if you like that. There are the Caroline Flints of the world, who are in strongly leave seats and who I think instinctively are basically on side with Brexit anyway. And then there are what you might call the pragmatic consider as the Stephen Kinnocks of the world, who instinctively are against Brexit but have been saying vocally for much of the last three years that we need a deal and a compromise. But whenever they're presented with the deal, they tend to pull back. Now, for the last over the last twelve hours or so, labor has been turning up the volume on the issue of workers rights, saying, actually, this deal is going to completely undermine and the road workers rights. Irrespective of whether or not that's true, that is clearly aimed at the Caroline Flints of the world, backed up with the threat of expulsion. Will that be enough to tip them over? I suspect actually that they were still going to be I mean, there will still be somewhere in the region of half a dozen labor MPs that will end up crossing, but that might clearly not be enough for Johnson in the end. Okay, So that's the labor part of this. What about the independence who now? I think where they constitute was record numbers in the House members either four members of the Tory Party, former labor from all kinds areas overwhelmingly. Are they likely to go for something that could take them out of the mess? Potentially? I suppose in the case of the Conservatives who lost the whip, they could come back into the Conservative Party. Well exactly, that's one of the incentives that play on Saturday, which we probably won't talk too much about over the next few few hours, but it is working behind the scenes in the Whip's office that look, actually, if you come back on side with us, this is your path back into the Conservative Party. And I suspect most of those now independent Conservatives will end up voting with their party and Boris Johnson, not only just because there might be a pathway back, but actually because of that broader view in Westminster now echoed in some of the editorials this morning, that this is really now the time to get Brexit done and just move on. And they're aware that actually this could if this, if this goes in a very different direction, which is a defeat for Johnson, a vote of confidence, some kind of alternative administration and election campaign that becomes a little bit more complicated in many respects, this could actually continue to divide their party in a major way. And then looking towards the e r G, how many do you think we could see getting drawn away with the d up and moving in lockstep. Have we seen as we've seen him, Well, take it with a pinch of salt. I've heard there's around fifteen or so that are going to cross now that that's why Johnson's deal is very much in play, because he's getting the Jacob Reese mogs, and Stephen Baker's making nice noises, and Andrew Bridging is making nice noises, and all these people that have been problematic in the past. There will a hard core that remained loyal to the d u P. And we can see our Jenkins and people like that who are saying they're not going to cross, but I suspect a rump will go over. And so you know, in a way, you could argue that even if Johnson loses on Saturday, in a strange sort of way, the Conservative Parliamentary Party is a little bit more united and might feel as though, okay, it can now go into you because there is this view right that whatever happens on Saturday, Johnson is actually in a good position. I mean, if he wins a deal, he's the prime minister who's delivered Brexit. Let's move on and reform the country. If he loses a deal, he's a prime minister that was stopped by the Brexit blocking Romain establishment. In quotations, let's now run the most populous general election campaign that British politics has ever seen. But I was going to go onto that. Wat's the account. If he wins, then things proceed forward. Will the legislation even be possible to do in the time necessary to get us out biox over the thirty one which he's nailed down. I think in theory that there is probably time, but again there are lots of stumbling blocks, given the numbers are so tight, and the one of the things that we are going to see on Saturday is this is one of the likely things we're going to see on Saturday, is the let Win Amendment, which is trying to make this exact point that actually there is not sufficient time to get the legislation through. Therefore, we should delay the approval of the deal so that we can take account of that possibility, and that might might actually command majority support in the House, which would take the fizz out of the vote on Saturday, would make it a little bit less consequential. But assuming Johnson's deal is passed, they could in theory Russia legislation through or alternatively, alongside what would be a very small technical extension endorsed by the EU who simply want to get want to get this off the table. Would the tour is actually accept it, because I mean, it's so much the ditch that he would die in, or the last line or whatever it is. He's nailed it so hard. Would it even be acceptable to have even a time extension? Think the symbolic significance of the vote passing after May's deal failed to pass three times, and that Johnson would then be able to say, look, I now command the majority in the House. The Brexit deal has been signed off by MPs. Now we've got to dot the eyes and cross the t s. I don't think there'd be a political problem with that, and of course that that that deadline was always Johnson's own. Making the whole view in number ten is essentially get to that election as quickly as possible, So ram get the legislation through um present the packages were now out, Let's now reform Britain and get to that get to that election. Is the pressure from the Tories who are booted out of the party to make this a confidence issue as well, because you could argue that it's only fair that if the previous one was, this one should be as well. So there is a rumor of you that Johnson could effectively make it a confidence issue in the coming houts, and if he feels that perhaps the numbers are not going in his direction, that an extra incentive for the Independent Conservatives could be Look, actually I'm to make this a confidence motion. And it's not only now about getting Brexit done. It's also directly about stopping Jeremy Corbyn or the Labor Party from taking control and losing Brexit forever. I'm not entirely convinced he's going to go that far. I think he might feel quietly confident with the numbers that he's got. I mean, look at the optics of of Johnson in Brussels. That was a very confident, optimistic prime minister. The Whips Office will have been keeping him constantly updated, so I I you know my view. I think he's quietly confident, but he wants he almost wants that no, they a confidence so that he can go to the country. That's kind of the point. Isn't it an election off the bank of this because the Government of National Unity seems a much less likely option. Well, that's why I think either outcome is good for Johnson. I mean, if he gets a deal, like I say, is the guy's deliver Brexit. If he doesn't get the deal, he's a guy that was blocked by the remain establishment. Now a few people and social media and so on are picking this up, but if you look at the data on this, and the fundamentals are clear. The Conservative Party is strengthening across every different polling house. Whether it's depending on how it measu as vote recall, and there's a bit of a debate about that, but essentially the Conservative position is strengthening. Johnson's leadership ratings for the first time since entering down the Street this week, He's now more popular among more popular than Jeremy Corbin, not only among leavers, but among women eighteen to twenty four year olds in Londoners, which is quite an achievement given that those are the strongholds for the remain vote and in general. You know, I actually think Johnson's metrics are pretty decent, which is why I mean, I know internally Number ten are nervous about some of their internal polling numbers. But if you just transfer the numbers in the average in the opinion polls right now, you're looking at a Conservative majority between fourty and seventies, somewhere in that range. Let's have a look through these papers, Rudder. You've got the Times, yea. Indeed, The Times has taken of you essentially pro the deal. They say, just do it. Mr Johnson's deal represents a reasonable compromise by both sides and it's a better outcome for Britain than Mrs May's deal. Crucially, the deal will allow Britain to pursue an independent trade policy, which leaves see is one of the main benet fits of Brexit, which watch could have been constrained and the Mrs Mays deal. Ear leaders, it says, have already said enough doubt to signal that another extension is not guaranteed and would surely be unlikely for any purpose than a referendum that looks very hard to bring about. No rational MP the time says should be prepared to take that risk, and then Arline Foster in the Belfast Telegraph her own view, of course, and not backing this deal. She says, we regret that this is a deal that we cannot support. We do not believe it's in the best economic interests of Northern Ireland. More should have been secured from Europe. Tomorrow. Our members of Parliament will oppose a proposal. This, of course, is one of the big roadblocks for Boris Johnson if he is to get this deal passed. Now the ft has come out in favor essentially of a referendum. They say Mr Johnson portrays a buccaneering future for a Britain sliding across the globe signing free trade trade deals. It's business freed to thrive in a light touch regulatory environment. Yet by shifting to less advantageous trade terms of the UK's closest neighbor and biggest export market, the reality threatens to be very different. It's says the UK and are changing. Europe think Tank estimates that trade losses and more restricted migration under the Johnson Deal would reduce UK income per capita by two point three over a decade against one point nine in Mrs May's deal. It says in voters will offered a leave option whose endpoint was undefined, which was are sold on a bogus prospectus. Now they know exactly where the path leaves, they deserve a chance to decide whether they still wish to follow it. So this is a really interesting prospect and this is something you want to speak to Matthew Goodwin about. He's still whether he's Professor of Politics at the University of Kent and senior fellow at Chatham House. Matthew, what happens then? What are the chances of a confirmatory vote being added to this and then passing. So I don't think there'll be an amendment on Saturday that would win majority support. That's why the People's Vote people have backed off. But there could come an amendment, say the deal doesn't pass, there could be an attempt next week week after to try and get that amendment on the table, the last big push for a second referendum. The problem for those that one one is that there isn't a clear support yet in the House, even though we're going to have people marching again this weekend in London asking for what they call a finals say. What's interesting in the polling is that there is now a consistent lead for Remain at a second referendum above and beyond the margin of error. That if you take the poll of polls that my colleagues, Sir John Curtis runs fifty Remain forty seven percent Leave. And the other thing to add, of course, is that there have been some fundamental changes since the referendum. Remainers and leavers haven't changed their minds, but people who didn't vote at the first referendum have non voters and now decisively remain. But will they vote So this is really interesting because this is essentially the dominic Cummings playbook right, targeting non voters. Are they going to give them a taste of their medicine? Well, that's I think that is something that we're going to potentially see if we get to that second referendum. Remember, because leavers and remainers are so polarized, the next referendum won't be about if there is one, won't be about arguments. It will be about differential turnout. Who can mobilize their own site to the maximum. And Cummings believes quite strongly, I think that abstainers and non voters, a lot of Brexit voters didn't turn out in twenty seventeen. They just went back into apathy. His whole strategies to get them out remains. Whole strategy will be find the non voting remainders and get them out. Everybody wants the untouched crew. But I suppose that there's interesting point in all that, which is, this is going to be a vote if it happens, in which you have three options as I understand it, no, no Brexit, no deal or the deal. Now, if it's you can see in a referendum, ordinary referendum, Okay, yes or no simple. When you have three options, it does become rather more complicated. Potentially you might not even get a decisive element out of it. Well, the first thing to say is, if you look at the Constitution units estimates, the quick as you can really have a second referendum is going to be about one twenty two weeks. So for argument's sake, if there was an amendment and it got support, we'd be looking at spring the earlier. So the second thing to say is question testing alone takes twelve weeks, right, The Electoral Commission will have to take about three months to test questions. There is a rumor, I think there was an emerging view at least that the preference would be a two stage referendum, which would be remain Leave first round and then soft deal hard deal if Leave wins the first round. But obviously there are lots of you can already begin to see the problems with some of that, indeed, and then of course you know what's the message and who are the messengers. Momentum two days ago came out and said they think Keir Starmer and Jess Phillips should lead on the labor side, and Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell should be quiet essentially. But on the of course we also know that on the Leave side at the first referendum, Boris Johnson and Nigel Ferage together had very powerful leadership effects. They really did drive the Leave vote. But now, of course they're not talking and they're saying they're not going to do a pact. So it would all be really interesting. Will we get there though, I don't know. I put the percentage chance of a second referendum. Another issue though is what is the measure of success? Because you can look at margin, you can look at turn out. This is something that we've got to consider as well. Right, if we do indeed get there, yeah, I would be amazed if we replicated the seventy turn out at the first referendum. I just think, you know, the public opinion now is just so everybody's fatigued, exhausted. If we have a general election or second referendum this year, next year, you know this is going to be you know, yet another major nationwide election, you know, independence referenum in scotlande general election, sixteen referendum, the seventeen general election, the European Parliament elections. How people are tired? People that fatigue as kicking in. Of course, the other thing to say briefly is this is why the Lib Dems are surging. One of the remarkable things that few people have picked up on is that now about forty of remainers are siding with the Lib Dems, which is why the Lib Dems are only two points behind Labor in the polls. One thing we could see if the deal flops on Saturday and we head into another sort of six month period of chaos in churn, We're not too far off seeing what I'd call the reverse nineteen twenty two scenario, with the Lib Dems leapfrogging over Labor in the national polls, like Labor leap frogged over liberals in the early twentieth century. I mean, this is now becoming a distinctive rebirth of liberal England. That would be a fascinating scenario. I suppose that's we've we've moved out into the bit I wanted to get into next, which is, Okay, we've we've game played what happens if you wins? We gameplayed what happens if it goes to another reference? What if it just I mean, one thing we know about this parliament is they've decided. They've only really ever decided what they don't like, not what they do. So if we have the same thing again and they don't like the deal but they don't actually vote for anything else, what happens, Well, assuming that the ben Act does kick in and there isn't a loophole in a sort of way, that number ten can somehow plunge us out of the EU on one. If the ben Act kicks in, it is then highly likely that we will have a general election at some point between now and early twenty And of course that election becomes far more complicated really for everybody. I mean, Johnson's actually emerges as the strongest because he's able to say, look, I was blocked on Brexit again by the remain establishment for Labor. The Brexit divide remains very salient for the Lib Dems. It's quite easy. It's just keep rallying remainers. Whereas if Johnson's deal passes, it becomes even more complicated for the other parties because Johnson again is able to say I'm the guy that deliver Brexit. Labor Party meanwhile, in a st range way, they can say, Okay, Brexit's done, let's talk about what we want to talk about, which is economics, and that brings in the corbonomics agenda, so nationalization, workers on company boards, possibility of wealth taxes and non doom staff and the later stuff on bankers bonuses. All of that comes into play, and the Lib Dems are kind of neutralized because the Lib Dems are now saying, oh, well, we're out of the EU effectively, but let's go back in, which is Tom Break said to us yesterday. They wouldn't automatically compare campaign to get back here. Okay. So the interesting thing is the campaign to rejoin is fundamentally different from the campaign to remain. Rejoining means a whole host of things that the Liberal Democrats are not entirely sure have begun to think about. It does mean rejoining through the Euro. It means more budgetary commitments, it means much closer integration, etcetera, etcetera. And to be frank, the EU wouldn't even be up for it. I don't think. I think the EU now would say we've had the half in and half out partner, We've had the awkward partner for thirty forty years. I think now it's time just to move on. And consolidate with the people that do want to be in the club. That's really interesting. Do we get a position where the idea of a government of national unity then it comes back on the table. If Johnson loses a deal, then it's likely we will move quickly into some kind of vote of no confidence. Obviously he's got a deficit of minus forty five ish in the House, so it was very unlikely he would win. And then, of course the big question is who would lead an alternative administration. We then have fourteen days for that administration to come together. Would it be Margaret Beckett, would it be Harriet Harmon? Would it be Kent Clark? Who would it be? Presumably Kent Clark will be back in the Conservative fold by that point if he's voted for the deal. Let's see, I need to need to check that. And then what is the alternative administration? And of course that's the point where you're going to get a lot of moderate saying I'm not going to put Jeremy Corbyn into number ten to the fourteen days expires, and then we go into the election anyway, because no government not John Burko suggested as someone that Corbyn could except I don't think that's a credible suggestion. And I think all of that plays into the coming strategy. Now, remember most voters are tuning into the noise, right. All most voters will see right now is Johnson got a deal that most people weren't expecting Johnson to get. And then the second message at the weekend could be MP's block Johnson that in effect, this is the dominant coming, that's the narrative. And then Johnson just says to everybody, look, I'm trying to deliver on what the people ask for. Um, so back on this government of national Unity idea. Corbyn really seems to be the roadblock here because there's no incentive for the Lib Dems. Certainly they're trying to court Tory voters at an election to allow Corbin to lead this. Absolutely, the Lib Dems won't work with Corbin because they don't want to. You know, they're riding high. They don't want to break their own legs. The Labor moderates don't want to legitimize Corbin because they view him as a fundamental block to the revival of new Labor. Moderate Social Democracy and the SMP are deeply dubious, right, I mean, the SMP, probably of all of them, are most open to it because they think Corbyn will give them a second referendum. The question then is can Corbin get to the numb get the numbers right at an election, And that's a really interesting thing. I expect the labor vote to rally. I do think the labor vote will rally for a number of reasons. I think no Squeeza Green's. I think a lot of Lib Dems will look at their seats locally and realize the Lib Dems aren't even in contention in those seats. And I think the labor vote will come back up to the high twenties at low thirties then with a strong SMP performance and maybe the Lib Dems hitting the Conservatives in the South. Yes, I think Boris Johnson's strategy is completely clear, and I think he would be the favorite. But I wouldn't buy into all of these narratives of like massive sweeping conservative majorities. Matthew, let me ask you the question very finally that you should never ask a professor of politics. Can you call it for tomorrow? What do you think it will happen? You know, my instinct is that it is going to come incredibly close, but it won't pass. That's that's my instinct, but that is not based on anything other than the fact that I've been saying for the last few months. Most plausible scenario is he loses and we go into an election. 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