Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Let's talk about our future, the future of our party and our country.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Let's talk about our future, the future of our party and our country.

I plan to take us back into government. I've been a team player under four different prime ministers, but now I plan to lead the team. We must never let this happen again.

I plan to take us back into government. I've been a team player under four different prime ministers, but now I plan to lead the team. We must never let this happen again.

We must be better.

We must be better.

We can be better. Who wants to be the next leader of the Tory Party? Well, those are three of the five candidates still in the running. They're all focused on the future, but what about the present? Hello, this has been Burg UK Politics. I'm Stephen Carroll.

We can be better. Who wants to be the next leader of the Tory Party? Well, those are three of the five candidates still in the running. They're all focused on the future, but what about the present? Hello, this has been Burg UK Politics. I'm Stephen Carroll.

And i'm you and Potts. Welcome to the program. So one down, five remain. Pretty Patel is out of the race for the Conservative leadership, having come last in the secret ballots of the one hundred and twenty one Tory MPs. In a moment, we're going to talk to Chris Wilkins, formerly of our Bloomberg UK Politics election panel. But before we dig into the politics all of this, I think we should have a reminder of how process works. Steve giving you that job.

And i'm you and Potts. Welcome to the program. So one down, five remain. Pretty Patel is out of the race for the Conservative leadership, having come last in the secret ballots of the one hundred and twenty one Tory MPs. In a moment, we're going to talk to Chris Wilkins, formerly of our Bloomberg UK Politics election panel. But before we dig into the politics all of this, I think we should have a reminder of how process works. Steve giving you that job.

It's a bit like you're handing over to me on the countdown part to the sums. We have another round of MP voting to happen next week, which will whittle the candidates from five down to four. They then get to pitch to the party conference in Birmingham at the end of the month. MPs then vote again and the final two will be put to an online ballot of Conservative Party members. So that will bring us to a results on the second of November. All going well, three days before another election that you might have heard of.

It's a bit like you're handing over to me on the countdown part to the sums. We have another round of MP voting to happen next week, which will whittle the candidates from five down to four. They then get to pitch to the party conference in Birmingham at the end of the month. MPs then vote again and the final two will be put to an online ballot of Conservative Party members. So that will bring us to a results on the second of November. All going well, three days before another election that you might have heard of.

Thanks Carol. Right, let's cheer this over with Chris Wilkins of formerly of our election Panels, also CEO of communications firm Orderly Advisors, and a former head of strategy at Downing Street and chief speechwriter to Theresa Bay. Chris, Now, let's start with an easy one. Who would you like to win? And who do you think will win?

Thanks Carol. Right, let's cheer this over with Chris Wilkins of formerly of our election Panels, also CEO of communications firm Orderly Advisors, and a former head of strategy at Downing Street and chief speechwriter to Theresa Bay. Chris, Now, let's start with an easy one. Who would you like to win? And who do you think will win?

Lovely question? Well, like a lot toy members, I watching it play out, so I'm not yet decided who I think will win. The standard rubric for these things to say that the favorite never wins. Favorite has long been Kenny Babeenock, though interestingly urged didn't come first in the ballot yesterday. If you pinned me to it now, I would say Kenny probably, though is the most likely victor for a number of reasons I think have used chime with Tory members. But if you look at the support she's drawn, if she also has significant support from some of the people who were formerly behind David Cameron, and I think that sort of support is interesting and puts her in a good position. So don't hold me to it. But as you asked, that would be my answer today, I think so.

Lovely question? Well, like a lot toy members, I watching it play out, so I'm not yet decided who I think will win. The standard rubric for these things to say that the favorite never wins. Favorite has long been Kenny Babeenock, though interestingly urged didn't come first in the ballot yesterday. If you pinned me to it now, I would say Kenny probably, though is the most likely victor for a number of reasons I think have used chime with Tory members. But if you look at the support she's drawn, if she also has significant support from some of the people who were formerly behind David Cameron, and I think that sort of support is interesting and puts her in a good position. So don't hold me to it. But as you asked, that would be my answer today, I think so.

Interestingly, there wasn't a huge divergence in the numbers of who voted for who. Robert Jenrick got twenty eight, he got the most, and then male Strides turn the race got sixteen and everyone else is kind of in the middle, So you're not looking at anyone vastly ahead in this race so far. I'm interested to hear though, that you're undecided. What do you think that Tory members will be listening out for in terms of kind of the key things that might draw them towards a leader.

Interestingly, there wasn't a huge divergence in the numbers of who voted for who. Robert Jenrick got twenty eight, he got the most, and then male Strides turn the race got sixteen and everyone else is kind of in the middle, So you're not looking at anyone vastly ahead in this race so far. I'm interested to hear though, that you're undecided. What do you think that Tory members will be listening out for in terms of kind of the key things that might draw them towards a leader.

Well, I think what's interesting about the discussion so far is because it's been all about the MPs, it's been quite limited. What the membership I think we'll be looking for is a much broader conversation in the coming weeks around what it is that the party now stands for and what we believe and a sense of direction, because I think that's been lacking.

Well, I think what's interesting about the discussion so far is because it's been all about the MPs, it's been quite limited. What the membership I think we'll be looking for is a much broader conversation in the coming weeks around what it is that the party now stands for and what we believe and a sense of direction, because I think that's been lacking.

That.

That.

The reason for the lengthy process, which you just outlined is so that actually the party can take stop where it is and have that conversation, a big debate about kind of what conservatism is about and what the future looks like and somebody needs to seize that mantle. Now nobody's done that at the moment. It's been a very low discussion about what's your view on the ECCHR, little tactical things like this. I think the person who stands up like David Cameron did famously when he's did the leadership and says, look, I'm going this way, this is what I believe, follow me and convince his members that actually that is a path back to government. That's the big discussion we need. We haven't seen it yet. Hopefully it will happen during conference.

The reason for the lengthy process, which you just outlined is so that actually the party can take stop where it is and have that conversation, a big debate about kind of what conservatism is about and what the future looks like and somebody needs to seize that mantle. Now nobody's done that at the moment. It's been a very low discussion about what's your view on the ECCHR, little tactical things like this. I think the person who stands up like David Cameron did famously when he's did the leadership and says, look, I'm going this way, this is what I believe, follow me and convince his members that actually that is a path back to government. That's the big discussion we need. We haven't seen it yet. Hopefully it will happen during conference.

And on women, Chris, you are you are weekly gloomster in the run up to the election, and I don't want to give you PTSD, but what's your summary of why the Tories lost and do you think any of the candidates have kind of got a grip on that.

And on women, Chris, you are you are weekly gloomster in the run up to the election, and I don't want to give you PTSD, but what's your summary of why the Tories lost and do you think any of the candidates have kind of got a grip on that.

There's been a bit of a reflection on this, I think I think it's fair to say that the considerative government as was lost that sense of service and put sort of ego and other things in front of it, and a few candidates have reflect on that. I think that's right. But as I say that broader discussion is actually the divide in the party in a sense which Brexit sort of I guess opened up but actually has never really been resolved, and why it is the party really stands for now? So can we bade not a way of saying this as well that we sort of spoke right but government left. Other people have other views of it, but ultimately it was a lack of a sense of service. But also what is the Conservative Party for? And I think voters didn't know that anymore. I don't think the party knew it. So that is now what we need to answer in this discussion. And if we go through this process and have not had that conversation, not satisfying factor with the answer to that. I think actually we just need to wait for the Labor government to fail and then we'll be there to pick up the pieces. That would be a missed opportunity and a waste of this this moment, so that's what we need to do. So I'm not sure we've got there yet, and that's what needs to happen.

There's been a bit of a reflection on this, I think I think it's fair to say that the considerative government as was lost that sense of service and put sort of ego and other things in front of it, and a few candidates have reflect on that. I think that's right. But as I say that broader discussion is actually the divide in the party in a sense which Brexit sort of I guess opened up but actually has never really been resolved, and why it is the party really stands for now? So can we bade not a way of saying this as well that we sort of spoke right but government left. Other people have other views of it, but ultimately it was a lack of a sense of service. But also what is the Conservative Party for? And I think voters didn't know that anymore. I don't think the party knew it. So that is now what we need to answer in this discussion. And if we go through this process and have not had that conversation, not satisfying factor with the answer to that. I think actually we just need to wait for the Labor government to fail and then we'll be there to pick up the pieces. That would be a missed opportunity and a waste of this this moment, so that's what we need to do. So I'm not sure we've got there yet, and that's what needs to happen.

On that point of the Labor government failing. How optimistic are you that Toys can avoid a two thousand and one scenario when the party made that, you know, absolutely no progress in four years against Tetlon Tony Kirstarmer's favorability ratings are already quite negative, aren't they.

On that point of the Labor government failing. How optimistic are you that Toys can avoid a two thousand and one scenario when the party made that, you know, absolutely no progress in four years against Tetlon Tony Kirstarmer's favorability ratings are already quite negative, aren't they.

Yeah, So I think that's an interesting thing if you talk to people in the Conserveive Party at the moment, there's a strange sense of i'd to say optimism, but it's not pessimism. So Labour got a big majority, but it was really broad and thin, as many people have said. And actually politics is very volatile. So mathematically is it possible to overturn that in one parliament? Well, yes, it probably is. And there is a sense that actually Kirstana isn't that popular and the government has made some missteps already, they're getting something wrong and actually they're their satisfaction ratings are going negative and we're only a couple of months in. So there's a strange sense of, if not optimism at least the sense of this isn't as bad as it could have been, and so because of the party gets this decision right, I think they feel that actually they can avoid that two thousand and one scenario and at least at the next election, if not wholly overturn it, at least get back to a position where they would be within a fighting chance for overturning in time after that. So all is not lost, but they do need to answer that question about what they're all about and then make the selection of leader based on true understand of the answer to that question, do you think.

Yeah, So I think that's an interesting thing if you talk to people in the Conserveive Party at the moment, there's a strange sense of i'd to say optimism, but it's not pessimism. So Labour got a big majority, but it was really broad and thin, as many people have said. And actually politics is very volatile. So mathematically is it possible to overturn that in one parliament? Well, yes, it probably is. And there is a sense that actually Kirstana isn't that popular and the government has made some missteps already, they're getting something wrong and actually they're their satisfaction ratings are going negative and we're only a couple of months in. So there's a strange sense of, if not optimism at least the sense of this isn't as bad as it could have been, and so because of the party gets this decision right, I think they feel that actually they can avoid that two thousand and one scenario and at least at the next election, if not wholly overturn it, at least get back to a position where they would be within a fighting chance for overturning in time after that. So all is not lost, but they do need to answer that question about what they're all about and then make the selection of leader based on true understand of the answer to that question, do you think.

The membership is sufficiently engaged in this? I mean, it was such a bruising election defeat that you couldn't blame people for taking a bit of a break from politics for a while and perhaps letting to see things play out. I mean, are these candidates going to get enough of the base as its were fired up and interested in the campaign to secure that vision.

The membership is sufficiently engaged in this? I mean, it was such a bruising election defeat that you couldn't blame people for taking a bit of a break from politics for a while and perhaps letting to see things play out. I mean, are these candidates going to get enough of the base as its were fired up and interested in the campaign to secure that vision.

I don't think that's happened yet. I think pretty people are pretty dis engaged in terms of the membership. Partly, you know, it's been summer, it's the post election period, and a lot of the activists and members have sort of taken probably a bit of a break, and this initial phase is all about the MPs, you know, the candidates who entirely focused on getting through the MP banner and getting too confidence. So conference will be the big moment, and that's really when somebody has the opportunity to stand up and sort of mark themselves out as different, both in in terms of what they're saying, but also you know how they approach leadership, how they show up, and I imagine after confidence you'll see a lot more of a galvanized membership engaged in the process. But it's just the way the process works that right now, it's all about Westminster. It's all about getting through the MP ballot, and that's why, as you saw yesterday, I mean it's very close at the moment, so that's what they're focused on.

I don't think that's happened yet. I think pretty people are pretty dis engaged in terms of the membership. Partly, you know, it's been summer, it's the post election period, and a lot of the activists and members have sort of taken probably a bit of a break, and this initial phase is all about the MPs, you know, the candidates who entirely focused on getting through the MP banner and getting too confidence. So conference will be the big moment, and that's really when somebody has the opportunity to stand up and sort of mark themselves out as different, both in in terms of what they're saying, but also you know how they approach leadership, how they show up, and I imagine after confidence you'll see a lot more of a galvanized membership engaged in the process. But it's just the way the process works that right now, it's all about Westminster. It's all about getting through the MP ballot, and that's why, as you saw yesterday, I mean it's very close at the moment, so that's what they're focused on.

Being leader of the opposition is a famously tough job, of course, of the sense when there's a new government that frankly nobody is listening. That's really key, isn't it. For the next five years. Who do you think of the candidates is best, will be best at getting their voice heard.

Being leader of the opposition is a famously tough job, of course, of the sense when there's a new government that frankly nobody is listening. That's really key, isn't it. For the next five years. Who do you think of the candidates is best, will be best at getting their voice heard.

Yeah, it's a really tough job and in many ways very different skill set to required to them being Prime minister. I think two people who sort of shown they have that ability so far. I would say one is James Cleverly. Some of the analysis he's provided has been quite forensic and interesting or some of things the government has done, and he comes with that sort of big experience of having be in foreign sectorary, home cetera, et cetera, so quite a breadth of experience which he can apply to being quite then forensic about scrutinizing the government. So I think he's done quite well. But I think the other person then, who is good at sort of taking the headlines and getting themselves a platform, is kept Me and there's no doubt that she definitely gets cut through in the way that you want to lead an opposition to achieve. The question for her is ultimately whether those are on the right issues and on the things that are really going to move voters in the direction of the Conservative Party, and at the moment I think that's probably where the jury is slightly out, but certainly from a political point of view, she definitely makes an impact in the way you want somebody to do.

Yeah, it's a really tough job and in many ways very different skill set to required to them being Prime minister. I think two people who sort of shown they have that ability so far. I would say one is James Cleverly. Some of the analysis he's provided has been quite forensic and interesting or some of things the government has done, and he comes with that sort of big experience of having be in foreign sectorary, home cetera, et cetera, so quite a breadth of experience which he can apply to being quite then forensic about scrutinizing the government. So I think he's done quite well. But I think the other person then, who is good at sort of taking the headlines and getting themselves a platform, is kept Me and there's no doubt that she definitely gets cut through in the way that you want to lead an opposition to achieve. The question for her is ultimately whether those are on the right issues and on the things that are really going to move voters in the direction of the Conservative Party, and at the moment I think that's probably where the jury is slightly out, but certainly from a political point of view, she definitely makes an impact in the way you want somebody to do.

If you're looking at how to attract new voters. Though the young Conservatives have written to candidates expressing concern about a lack of attention being paid to younger members. Do you think that's a fair criticism from what you've heard so far?

If you're looking at how to attract new voters. Though the young Conservatives have written to candidates expressing concern about a lack of attention being paid to younger members. Do you think that's a fair criticism from what you've heard so far?

I do, and I think that is one of the big challenges for the party as a whole. When I talk about the party needing to have that big conversation about what it's all about, what it stands for, I think that's probably one of the big questions that needs to answer because it's frankly, in government for the past number of years now, it was all skewed towards older voters because older voters were traditionally the people who had come out and support the Conservative Party, and the offer to younger voters has not really been there. And I remember having this conversation with a former minister a number of years ago in the aftermath of Brexit referendum, and I said to them that my concern is that we're going to lose generations for younger voters and we don't have an offer for them. And he said to me, don't worry, Chris. As people get older, they always become more conservative. I don't think that's true anymore. Maybe it was once, not now, and we need to pass the office. So that's one of the things where somebody can mark themselves out to make a difference. If they come up with that offer, that will be interesting.

I do, and I think that is one of the big challenges for the party as a whole. When I talk about the party needing to have that big conversation about what it's all about, what it stands for, I think that's probably one of the big questions that needs to answer because it's frankly, in government for the past number of years now, it was all skewed towards older voters because older voters were traditionally the people who had come out and support the Conservative Party, and the offer to younger voters has not really been there. And I remember having this conversation with a former minister a number of years ago in the aftermath of Brexit referendum, and I said to them that my concern is that we're going to lose generations for younger voters and we don't have an offer for them. And he said to me, don't worry, Chris. As people get older, they always become more conservative. I don't think that's true anymore. Maybe it was once, not now, and we need to pass the office. So that's one of the things where somebody can mark themselves out to make a difference. If they come up with that offer, that will be interesting.

You talked at the beginning about never betting on the favorite. Interestingly, the money on betfair and some of the other gambling sites is now in Robert Jenrick pushing Kenny Bayknock into second favorite. I'm just interested on your take on how you think the membership will vote, because they've often been quite unpredictable in the past, haven't they.

You talked at the beginning about never betting on the favorite. Interestingly, the money on betfair and some of the other gambling sites is now in Robert Jenrick pushing Kenny Bayknock into second favorite. I'm just interested on your take on how you think the membership will vote, because they've often been quite unpredictable in the past, haven't they.

They have been unpredictable, and there's also a bit of a caricature about what the Conservaive Party membership really looks like. People I think think of them as sort of older, very right wing members and that's not actually the case, so that has the unpredictability. I think Robert Jennick has a lot to say to the members that they will like. But what the pacifitive members really want, and we've seen this timetime again, really is they want a winner. They want somebody who's going to actually take them in the government. That's what they did when David Cameron staid up. David Cameron wasn't particularly in tune with the views of the servating members all the time, but he said that I will win the election, I'll take you back to government. And he looked plausible and they believed it. And it's the same later with for example, Boris Johnson. Whatever you thought of him, whatever they thought of his views, they thought he was a winner. That's the opportunity at confidence. Somebody needs to stand up and look like and make a plausible case that whatever their views, actually they're a winner because that's what the members want.

They have been unpredictable, and there's also a bit of a caricature about what the Conservaive Party membership really looks like. People I think think of them as sort of older, very right wing members and that's not actually the case, so that has the unpredictability. I think Robert Jennick has a lot to say to the members that they will like. But what the pacifitive members really want, and we've seen this timetime again, really is they want a winner. They want somebody who's going to actually take them in the government. That's what they did when David Cameron staid up. David Cameron wasn't particularly in tune with the views of the servating members all the time, but he said that I will win the election, I'll take you back to government. And he looked plausible and they believed it. And it's the same later with for example, Boris Johnson. Whatever you thought of him, whatever they thought of his views, they thought he was a winner. That's the opportunity at confidence. Somebody needs to stand up and look like and make a plausible case that whatever their views, actually they're a winner because that's what the members want.

Okay, Chris, great to have you back on the program. Thanks for joining us. Chris Wilkins their CEO of Oddly Advisors but also formerly of Downing Street at working with Teresa. Ay. That's it from us for today. If you like the program, don't forget to subscribe, give it five stars so other people can find it an Apple podcast, Spotify or wherever you listen.

Okay, Chris, great to have you back on the program. Thanks for joining us. Chris Wilkins their CEO of Oddly Advisors but also formerly of Downing Street at working with Teresa. Ay. That's it from us for today. If you like the program, don't forget to subscribe, give it five stars so other people can find it an Apple podcast, Spotify or wherever you listen.

This episode was produced by two at a Bio and our audio engineer. It was Sean wester Marka, I'm.

This episode was produced by two at a Bio and our audio engineer. It was Sean wester Marka, I'm.

New and Potts and I'm Stephen Caroll. We'll be back with more on Monday. This is brim Berg Bloomberg UK Politics.

New and Potts and I'm Stephen Caroll. We'll be back with more on Monday. This is brim Berg Bloomberg UK Politics.

Listen weekdays at noon on DAB digital radio in London,

Listen weekdays at noon on DAB digital radio in London,