Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow look ahead to Nvidia's earnings as tech stocks get set for another weekly gain. Plus, Sen. Scott Wiener of California breaks down his controversial AI bill that's facing pushback from the likes of OpenAI. And a look back at the legacy of British tech titan, Mike Lynch.
From the heart where innovation, money and power Collie in Silicon Valley NBN.
This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and.
Ed Ludlow.
From New York and San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Technology and tech Talks are on a roll for another weekly gain. As fedshare pal says the time has come for raycuts and read from Jackson Hole.
Harris backs America in AI and the space race. At the close of the DNC, we have the reaction from Chicago, an.
Open AI opposition. We are joined by California State Senator Scott Wiener as industry leaders push against his proposed AI legislation. First as check in on these markets, and it's all about fed share pow. It's all about an increase of eight ten percent now notable than in fact, the NASA one hundred is actually coming off of its highs of earlier trading. This really is just showing that there is a rebound. I hope for these rate cuts to kick in as soon as September, but we suddenly saw actually we're joining a light on some of the French companies here and the pound overall. I was going to show you what the bomb market was up to when the fact that crypto has also been on the higher side. Edd, But what are you watching on the micro basis?
I want to go straight to Nvidia because we've talked about how in Video's earnings next Wednesday, August twenty eight will be a macro level event and we'll talk a bit more about the markets. Right, Cara, were on the heels of that Powell statement, which is highly anticipated.
It certainly was. We were all focusing in on what was occurring with Jackson Holme more broadly, we're all thinking about what this meant for the tech sector. Look, it's no surprises once again, when you're looking at the NASAK and the NaSTA one hundred. It is the key players that we're so used to leading us high. It is the in videos of this world. And maybe that's the macro event for your and my market at the moment where all eyes on August of twenty eighth, in Videos earnings coming and indeed what that means for the picture for AI. Not much of that coming from Jackson Hole today, of course, there is much more a signal from fed chair pal about the fact that the time has come for rate cuts. The time has been assessed that really we are seeing that weakness in the labor market that he doesn't want to accentuate any further. I'm pleased to say that to get a weaving of the narrative of what comes from a macro policy perspective and how it hits the micro in terms of individual movers, we can bring in one jess menton look, I mean, we're coming off of our highs, but certainly what fed chair pal said fueled the market of setting some of yesterday's weakness, but only some of it.
That's right. And even though we've seen some of the indexes come off some of those highs, still the S and P five hundred is a whisker away from that all time high on July tenth, and the Nasdaq one hundred's still about four percent away from that. But we want to see underneath the hood when it comes to tech and what's rallying, it's actually the unprofitable tech companies. So Goldman Sacher actually has a basket that tracks that it's actually at more than two percent at this point. So then you're seeing other corners of the stock market that obviously are going to benefit from easing policy. Here, see like the Russell tooth and small caps taking off over two percent, but then also companies with weaker type balance sheets because there's different baskets that city, and then others track as well, and you're seeing those outperforming right now too.
Jess, I always go straight to niglobe wrap on the Bloomberg terminal. I just look at the top line and I say, how does the Bloomberg USERM feel about this? And they call it the pal pivot. Maybe it's more of like a fed victory lap. I think is some of the narrative from Jackson Hole. But let's please go back to Nvidia. We kind of knew this would happen at some point, a rate cut being on the table. August twenty eighth in video is our super Bowl here on Bloomberg Technology.
Of course, and as you know, Esha Day on our equities team actually did the taking stot Colum this morning. But if you look at what city's pricing in stuke Kaiser when it comes to the potential swing here in the options market, betting on what we see because to your point, in video reports after the bell on Wednesday, so the following day during intra day trading, the swing could be around ten percent in either direction for Nvidia in particular, so that's actually above its longer term average of about seven and a half percent. What that means is what does it mean for other potential chip stike sucks, which obviously a lot of them have come down because we had that sell off obviously after things peaked out for the NASUAQ one hundred back in July. But of course we've seen a bounce back here, so it'll be interesting to see as far as even though valuations came down a bit, they came back up slightly because of the rebound we saw in the past couple of weeks, so that'll really shape the direction. Even though volatility is expected to fade a bit over the next couple of weeks, just because heading into obviously Labor Day, that's still going to be a big volatile move potentially next Thursday, after we hear from Nvidia after the bell on Wednesday, and in.
Video up almost four percent, not at session highs, but still op significantly. Bloomberg's just men and Happy Friday, okay. With the US market heavily concentrated in tech hardware in particular, especially in Vidia, investors are looking ahead to the company's quarterly results. As we said August twenty eighth, Wednesday, after market, let's bring in Alison Porter. She's a portfolio manager at Janis Henderson Investors covering their global technology leaders and sustainable future technology funds. And that's the date of play. Jackson Hole has been and gone in videos next Wednesday, which is top of mind for you, Allison.
I think you know we very much focus on the bottom up and focus on where the technology, sayclers, and the key focus is going to be on earnings next week, and you know, seeing if the enterprise demand pick up that we saw some signs of that from both Cesesco and the novel in recent weeks. If that carries through, not just send video, but we have Dale and network Applianes and Upure storage or report next week as well.
Okay, I love how you're going bottom up here, Allison. Does any conversation around the dinner table or conversation at big conferences that you're going to at the moment end up with people saying, boy, your industry is just sucking up all the oxygen but also all the passive money. And is there a worry about indexes having to come in and rebalance here in some.
Way, I think we always come back to fundamental and there's always a focus on you know, will interest rates you know, result in this rotation into smaller caps, is they're necessarily going to be bread And I think we look back if you look back even to nineteen ninety when you see you know, trillion dollar companies, the pace at which they've reached two trillion has been faster and more likely than companies at one hundred billion going to two hundred billions. So technology always tends to be quite size agnostic, and those large cap winners, when they achieve scale and a key competitive advantages, can continue to grow on that in spite of the interest rate environment through rising and falling rates. So we're quite agnostic about the size of companies, and you know the indexes, you know just now there are winners and losers in those large cap names. When you look back to prior cycles, not all of the past leaders become the leaders in the next cycle. So we think it's a great time to be an active investor and actually choose which of those companies are going to lead in this next week.
So does Inveria just say the main company that benefits from a picks and shovel perspective, Do others win and indeed, when does the investment coming from the hypher scale is payoff for them too?
Yeah, I mean I think, you know, for Nvidia, we had many of the same questions about Apple during the mobile era. Could Apple continue to win? And we do think that the majority of the value in parallel processing is accruing to in Nvidia, but that is the majority of it and not all. And we will through time, just as we've seen previously, see a broadening out of beneficiaries and on that return on investment spend on AI. You know, just as recently as it a few days ago, we held Walmart actually talk about the huge benefits to their product catalog being able to you know, take eight hundred and fifty million pieces of data that would have taken them a hundred times ahead count before, so real productivity gains that is coming from that AI spend. We've heard Andy Jazz's blogged today talking similarly about the number of developers that they can save with faster coding. So we think that will continue to encourage spend and that broadening of spend not just to the hyperscalers, but eventually to enterprises as well.
To that point, Jackie and the team in New York, let's bring back that chart you had a second ago, some of the megacaps and their performance in the session. Because Alison, in your biggest fund these are all names you hold Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta not in that ranking or order in terms of allocation. When all is said and done August twenty ninth, what would need to happen within Video's earnings for you to rethink your allocation to each of those names going forward?
You know, I think even if you look back at last year, we don't react just to one quarter of earnings because a lot of possessions and come into that. But we think we've already seen evidence from all of the reports of those companies that you just saw that they are committed to continuing to spend where they see a return, and we think in Video's results will just continue to show that they are seeing strong visibility and seeing that broad and so, you know, we don't really see that as being an event from Nvidia that's going to materially change your view on any of those megacaps.
Allison, is there anything that excites you outside of the US listed megacat tech names anywhere else in the world.
Yeah, we see lots of exciting new companies. Particularly we see some you know, exciting emerging technology leaders in India. We also see, you know, through the US market, there are several areas that are just emerging in terms of the productivity gains that they can be had from artificial intelligence that are being underappreciated even in some of the contract manufacturers, where we see trends to what's still towards de globalization, towards focus on you know, higher standards and supply chains, that some of the this AI spent is actually trickled down to some of the companies that will actually have to manufacture. And this not just TSMC for Nvidia, but the servers, the storage that we'll have that will be made for many of these hyper scalers. We think you'll start to see that accrue to some some different names much further down the market CAPCR.
Alison, that's really interesting. But again we're sort of talking about the infrastructure layer. Where will the money go from the application layer? At some point do you.
Think, well, it just takes time and we've seen that before, you know, when we had the mobile era, you know, between when Apple launched its iPhone and two thousand and eight and you actually had the IPO of Uber. You know, over ten years of developing the app store, develop applications, and you know, we do tend to see and this is followed a very similar pattern for AI. You tend to see advertising benefit first, and then we see e commerce. We're hearing that from Walmart, and then you start to see enterprise software, some productivity gains, and then eventually that filters into other new applications, many of which we won't have thought of first. But this happens over multiple years, you know, in technology proper waves rather than just type cycles. These take you know, five to seven years to play out. So investors shouldn't necessarily look and think that investments have to be in those applications today because many of those still have to emerge as we start to see you know, the interface for AI for consumers still involved somewhat over the next few years.
Alison is always so great to have you on the show. Thank you for joining us, Happy weekend. Thank you in Edinburgh. Alison water portflio manager at Jannis Henderson Investors, Global Technology leaders Sstainable Future Technology funds any morehead stick with us the bluebot technology.
Okay, it's time for talking tech and first up. Ali Barber shareholders have approved a plan to upgrade its Hong Kong listing to primary status, a move that's expected to attract billions of dollars of investment from mainland China. This is shares of the online retailer have trailed key rivals like ten Cent. The change goes into effect August twenty eighth plus Uber is set to start offering its self driving Cruise vehicles to customers beginning next year. The partnership comes as Cruise, which is owned by General Motors, has been trying to regain traction after losing ground and grounding its fleet last year following the mishandling of a collision with a pedestrian, and bank capitals forging ahead with revived plans for an IPO of chip maker Kayosia Holdings that can raise five hundred million. That's according to Bloomberg's sources. Bain said to be working with investment banks for the IPO kickoff that could begin in the coming weeks.
I will make sure let me leave the world into the future.
On space and artificial intelligence, that America, not China, wins the competition for the twenty first century, and that we strengthen, not abdicate our global leadership.
Vice President Harris accepting the Democratic nomination for president last night. Bloomberg's Amory Hodden is on the ground in Chicago where the DNC is now wrapped up, and Amory, boy, it was an important speech. I have a feeling you might be a little tired after yesterday.
Absolutely a very important speech and historic speech for Vice President Kamala Harris as she accepts the Democratic National Convention, she accepts the nomination to be the top of the ticket. We have to say, and cannot overstate this, what a one pint eighty we are standing here today than we were just a month ago. A tremendous amount of energy now has been infused into this campaign and now comes potentially the hard part. We heard from the Vice president last night. She talked broadly, a lot about issues, whether it was the economy, foreign policy, reproductive rights, really cherry picking part of the Biden plan that she was part of, and now she's going to potentially have to go into details of those policies. I spoke to Tobin Marcus this morning of Wolf Research, and he said that this campaign is using strategic ambiguity. What they want to basically connect with swing state voters, using populist rhetoric, but not having to go into the details of those policy proposals. They have about seventy four days now to get that job done. Will they continue to try to potentially put a little bit bit of a gap between them and the actual details of the policy and just continuously try to talk broadly about the issues. That's going to become much harder come September tenth, when you have Kamala Harris facing off Donald Trump in their first.
Debate, Bloomberg's Emory horder and in Chicago, thank you very much, okay. Open Ai is opposing a state bill here in California that would place new safety requirements on AI companies, like a fail safe shutdown for AI systems or compliance disclosions. The startup joins a long list of academic, tech industry leaders and other politicians who argue the measures could stifle innovation. The author of bill SB one oh four seven, California State Senator Scott Wiener, joins us now in San Francisco, along with Bloomberg, Sharene Gafari, who actually broke the story that open AI had outlined its concerns in a letter to you State Senator Wiena. So let's start with this. Open ai is based in San Francisco, California. It is probably the world's leading AI name or startup, and they think that federal legislation is a better path than state. Your reaction to that.
Well, I will start by saying that another AI lab in San Francisco, Anthropic, which currently has the largest model in the world, issued a letter yesterday stating that on balance SP ten forty seven is good and that it is implementable, and that Congress is unlikely to add you're talking about entropic out. I'm sorry that I'd say the name. Anthropic came out and said that I'm balanced, the bill is good and that it's implementable, and that Congress is unlikely to act. And so I have a lot of respect for open AI. But just to be clear, the open AI letter does not actually criticize any provision of the bill. It does not criticize anything in the bill. All it says is that this should be handled at the federal level. And to be clear, I agree it should be handled at the federal level. But here we are in twenty twenty four and Congress still has not passed a data privacy law, has done nothing around social media other than banning TikTok, has not codified net neutrality. Congress has a very poor record in terms of regulating the tech sector, and I don't see that changing, and so we California should lead.
Do you think that we should trust There's been a long list of tech companies, vcs, academics who have criticized this bill. But do you think that we should be trusting some of these voices who are against it? Are there other motivations that you think could be at play here?
So to be clear, there are folks who are criticizing the bill in good faith and people I respect the lot. There are others who are making very inaccurate and extreme and exaggerated attacks on this bill. This is a very light touch, smart piece of regulation around safety, regulating only the largest model to just ask these developers to perform safety testing so that we can reduce the risk of things like shutting down the electric grid, or attacking the banking system, or creating a chemical or biological weapon. And some of the leading minds in AI, like Yoshua Benzio and Jeff Hinton formerly from Google, Lawrence Lessig, and Stuart Russell are all supporting this bill, in addition to a significant list of startups who are saying that this is a good idea. So, yes, there are some people in good faith who have criticisms of the bill, and we have been working with them to get their feedback. There are others who are just opposed to any and all regulation of tech, and I just don't agree with that.
And I want to talk about whistleblower protections, which is also a part of the bill, and it's received less attention. Today two former open ai employees came out and supported the bill, and they have advocated for more whistleblower protections. Why is that a part of the bill? Why is it important that people who work for these AI companies you think should be able to speak out on safety.
So I am, just to be clear, a huge fan of AI. I think AI has so much potential to make the world a better place to solve what we have viewed as unsolvable problems, whether it's around various health conditions or climate change. And so I'm a fan but as with any extremely powerful technology, there are risks, and we should try to get ahead of those risks. And we know how to get ahead of those risks, not to eliminate risk, but to reduce the risk of something catastrophic happening. And so when you have people who are working in AI labs building some of the most powerful technology in the history of the world, they should be able to speak up and have legal protections to speak up if they see something inappropriate or dangerous happening.
Are you yourself, Senator, can I ask nervous, even scared around of special intelligence having done this amount of research.
I wouldn't. I wouldn't say scared, Like I am optimistic that AI can help us solve some of the hardest problems facing us. At the same time, it is it would be irresponsible to just allow it to spiral and not to in any way even think about the safety issues. And that's all this bill does. It requires safety protocols, a safety evaluation, the ability to shut down a model that is in your possession. These are all extremely reasonable things. And I want to be clear that every single large AI lab, including open AI and Meta and Google, they have already committed repeatedly and publicly to perform these safety evaluations. We're just asking them to do it in an obligatory way, and it should cause us all concern. Whenever you have an industry that says, we promise we'll do this, but don't require us to do it, just trust us. Voluntary commit ments in industry have a history of going awry.
Senator, you have listened and listened hard to some of the concerns and made changes. What seems to be the ongoing narrative from academia and indeed smaller companies is this open source narrative and the way in which perhaps LAMA would in any way suddenly become less bit available and less innovative. How can you change to enable smaller companies an open source still to thrive under this regulation.
Well, I'm a huge fan of open source, including in the AI space, and so many startups in particular. And by the way, startups are not covered by this bill. It applies only to labs that are spending more than one hundred million dollars to train their models. But AI, excuse me, open source AI plays an incredibly important role and we have worked intensively with GitHub and other open source advocates and made significant changes to the bill to make very very clear that this bill is not about being negative with open source. And yes, a lot of people rely on LAMA. But I know I sound like a broken record, but I'll say it again. META is one of the labs that has repeatedly committed to perform safety evaluations, and so that's what we have put into this bill. And so when you make that commitment, Meta made that commitment clearly believing that it was not going to undermine their ability to open source LAMA Missuena.
When Sharen posted on social media, you're coming onto the program, inevitably we got a number of questions from people all over the state. One of them was Professor Anima ann Kumar, actually previously an employee of Nvidia, no longer is as an academic, and it's on academia she wants to focus. She basically says in this question to you that you are pretty fixated on billionaires opposing the bill, and she asked, you know how much you take into account the input of academia. Also note that she is not alone in that a number of academics came forward when we said you joined the program.
Yeah, I saw that tweet, and I have no idea what she's talking about. At no point have I ever said that it's only billionaires who have concerns about this bill. I also want to say that there are large venture capital firms, particularly in recent Horowitz, that have taken the lead and spreading at times, and Andresent Horowitz has done this misinformation about the bill. But with that said, we know that there are academics who have expressed concern about the open source aspect, and so I have met with various of those academics. We have made significant amendments to the bill to address concerns from the open source community, and there are significant academics like Stuart Russell and Yosho Benjio, Jeffrey Hidden, etc. Who support the bill.
One of your main defenses of this bill has been that there's already laws right toort law you said that could find companies liable if they do cause mass harm through AI people. Also, as you mentioned, said, there's these voluntary commitments. So my question is, if those already exist, why do you think we need this law. Companies can already get in trouble if they cause harm.
Well, and that's a really important point because One of the inaccurate representations that we've seen around this bill is implying or even stating that this bill creates liability for AI developers when they had no liability before. Currently today, an AI developer, if you let's say open source and model and someone uses that model to shut down the electro grid, you can be sued today. And so our bill allows the Attorney General to get involved. But what the bill does is it creates a very specific obligation, not to create liability, but to tell developers, this is what we expect you to do. You need to test your model, you need to have a safety protocol, you need to be able to shut down the model in a very very specific way. We also provide the Attorney General with a very narrow ability to intervene before a harm occurs, to avoid a catastrophic harm in extreme circumstances. So this bill complements existing law.
SP ten seven is a state California state bill, And ultimately this might come down to Governor Newsom. Your expectation of what the governor may or may not do in a veto.
Or a signature or a signature, I you know the governor has not stated a position on this bill. I have learned the hard way over years not to assume whether the governor will sign her veto a bill. He and Governor Brown have surprised me in both directions in the past. You know, the governor is a strong supporter of tech innovation, as am I. The Governor has also made clear that it comes to AI, that regulation is appropriate and we have to strike the right balance. So I hope that the governor will have an open mind, and I believe he will have an open mind about this bill, and we will continue to make the case. This bill has been getting very very broad support, particularly among Democrats and the legislature.
Your constituency is very big if you include San Francisco and the concentration of AI companies here. Who else will you meet with to try and convince of this bill.
We have met with I mean, have you not met with We've met with anyone who will meet with us, And we have met with, you know, with folks from startups, from large tech companies, from folks from academia, just frontline tech workers. And by the way, when you pull this bill, it pulls off the charts with the public. It pulls higher among tech workers than it does among the general public. And it was frontline fruits tech workers who came to me originally with some of the ideas in this fill because they these are folks working in the AI space who had concerns about safety.
Sence to Scott Weena of California Bloombag Shrine Gafari who broke the original story, thank you both for being here in studio in San Francisco, Carolina, on.
A great conversation. Let's get back to these markets very briefly ed because we are pushing higher. We have got a power push going on. We've basically heard from Jackson Hole and he says the time is ripe for a change in policy. I rates are going to go lower. What happens the NAZAC jumb's by one point three percent. We are up and up for the week as well, through straight weeks of gains. Tenure yields with down four five basis points. Let's call it it's boring costs four and I'm also looking at Crypto getting a bid at the moment risk assets on we're at one point six percent. Move into some of the individual movers though, because of course all eyes on in video August eighth, we come up with what is going to be a macro move, that is a micro set of earnings from in video. We're up more than three point eight percent, big leader in terms of points. Therefore, across the Nazak one hundred, I'm looking at Workday, it's up eleven. The best performer from a percentage point is view is Earning saying, look, our margins are going to improve in the longer term. Not so far into it. It's company saying, look, actually, in the longer term, we're not going to be as optimistic, even though the short term the quarter just posted it beat across the board with down seven percent ed.
Right coming up on Bloomberg Technology, Amazon Web Services and accent you're announcing a joint platform that they say will help small developers scale responsible AI. That's next. This is Bloomberg Technology.
Now I've just had a debate about AI regulation. Meanwhile, though Amazon Web Services and Accenture, I've just announced a partnership that they say will help AI developers scale their projects responsibly. He'd tell us a little bit more about the platform and about responsible AAI more broadly, as d win Responsible AI lead at AWS. Basically, you are putting into practice ahead of regularly in many cases, how companies can navigate. We're just having a conversation about SB ten forty seven. How do you guide growth at this moment dea responsibly without laws in place?
Well, thank you for having me. Let me just first start saying that as as well as I wanted to start off by saying that responsible as a business imperative. So when you talk about the opportunity for us to scale the use of AI and organizations thinking about the ways in which they want to build leverage and AI, well, this platform, the Accenture Responsible AI platform powered by AWS, is a means for them to be able to do it. When we think about responsible AI, we think about that as a practice of designing, building, and deploying AI safely and inclusively being able to mitigate the risk and unintended impact. And this platform is providing them the visibility the control ways to assess their risk, be able to mitigate and prepare mitigation strategies, and have that fieldsibility across the organization so that they can ensure that they have the right kind of guard rails as well as safeguards in the systems, and then the technology.
They build does AWS have a position on California's SB ten forty seven.
I can't speak to that specific bill in California, but what I can say is that we're committed to continuing to collaborate with policymakers and the industry researchers, as well as academia and the community to advance the responsible use of AI. As one of the world's leading developers and deployers of AI tools and services, Amazon supports flastering, safe, responsible and effective development of AI technology, and we're dedicated to driving innovation on behalf of our customers that give them the capability to do so as well.
And dear, we just heard yesterday Vice President Kamala Harris accepting the nomination to run for president and saying she wants to support AI being one here in the United States. How do you see your clients or customers that you serve worrying or not about growth in AI?
Well, I'm not sure that I would say it's a worry. We've been seeing over the course of the last couple of years great excitement in the technology and in particular with generative AI, and we are fielding more requests than we have in the past about ways in which organizations can do that responsibly. So I believe we have momentum. Just as I mentioned at the beginning that I believe that responsible AI is a business imperative, and just by this share number and the increase in interest, conversation discourse around responsible AI says that organizations, as they think about adopting AI, are also thinking about the ways in which they can do that with the safeguards and guardrails to ensure that they're developing in ways to deliver safe systems.
Dear Win response, the way I lead at AWS, Thank you very much.
Now, after days and searching through wreckage of a sunken yacht off the coast of Sicily, authorities have confirmed the death of British tech tycoon Mike lynch Rum Egzine Dan joins us for more to discuss. And now many will understand the way in which he passed, but many are trying to grapple with what he meant for a technology industry which at one point he was deemed the Bill Gates of Britain. Tell us about his impact, then that's.
Right, And you know, before he passed he was still hailed as one of the most successful tech entrepreneurs that the UK had ever seen. He founded and ran one of the largest British technology companies to ever have been taken over in an M and A deal, and that really propelled his name and his status not just the UK but across Europe more broadly. It was quite the blow to his reputation and his ego when HP, which bought his company Autonomy, turned around and ended up accusing him of inflating the success of the business after taking it over, and he had spent years before his passing working to clear his name and be acquitted of charges.
On that front. He but thirty seconds Linn. He made an impact in terms of Cambridge and the Cambridge cluster.
He did.
He was extremely influential and he actually, in the aftermath of selling his company Autonomy, had ended up investing a lot of that money that he made as part of that deal into a ton of other technology startups, a lot of them which are now run by former Autonomy executives. And there was really an outpouring of condolences and an outpouring of grief from those former Aucademy executives working guided by him.
Then, durn we thank you, Mike linch An academic investor and entrepreneur