Special Edition: Nvidia Forecast Misses Loftiest AI Estimates

Published Nov 20, 2024, 10:47 PM

Nvidia, the chipmaker at the heart of an artificial intelligence boom, delivered a revenue forecast that failed to meet the highest expectations, suggesting that the company’s dizzying growth run has its limits. For reaction and analysis, Businessweek hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with Bloomberg Technology cohost Caroline Hyde, Bloomberg Intelligence senior semiconductor analyst Kunjan Sobhani, Bloomberg News equities reporter Ryan Vlastelica and Bloomberg News earnings reporter Redd Brown 

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Quarter adjusted earnings per share coming in above estimates at eighty one cents. Estimate was for seventy four cents. Third quarter at revenue coming in at thirty five point one billion dollars. Estimates were for thirty three point twenty five billion dollars third quarter data center revenue. This is what everybody wants to see that coming in above estimates thirty point eight billion dollars. The estimate was for twenty nine point one four billion dollars. Carrol Nvidiac's fourth quarter revenue at thirty seven point five billion plus or minus two percent. The estimate was for thirty seven point one billion dollars.

Gotta say, initial reaction, folks, not an upbeat one. Kunjan Zabani of our Bloomberg Intelligence Senior semi conductor team, he's an analyst. And then we're going to want to bring in another guest to kind of give us some more thoughts about what we got from video today.

Yeah, Caroline Hyde, who hosts Bloomberg Technology on Bloomberg TV, is joining us now. She's got our eyes closely watching everything happening over ed in video that forecasts failing to meet the loftiest estimates for the company cheers in the after hours right now down about four percent, so they're off of those lows, Caroline, But is this just about high expectations, very high expectations and in Nvidia coming out and saying Okay, we're almost going to meet them, but not quite.

And a very high market valuation that is the most valuable in the world, that has seen a run up of almost two hundred percent so far in the years. So maybe some profit taking when you are seeing, Yes, Luke Capital, if you dig into the analysts expectations for the fiscal fourth quarter or twenty twenty five, Luke Capital had it at about forty four billion dollars as the highest realm.

Then you had few one and securities at about forty one.

Billion, and then you get into the thirty seven billion dollar range with the likes of Craig Hullum and Da Davidson was a little bit above that. So compared to perhaps some of the highest levels out there, they're coming in below and there's a plus or minus two percent there to be built in as well. So I think there is some digesting that this isn't beaten raised and blown out of every single analysts expectations.

Still, these are incredibly strong numbers.

This is a guide to the fact that we're getting Blackwell on stream. That supply side will be ironed out, and I think we'll have far more from Gensen hung on that particular perspective, and that demand is still incredible. So I think there's just a little bit of profit taking coming on. When we've seen that the rapid rise has been two hundred percent over the year, maybe four or five percent sell down isn't the most remarkable.

Shift, Caroline Great point, right, it's not Reay yet. Well, you know, listen, this is her world that she's talking to these you know, tech companies, following them inside and outside, and this idea that there's still supply, that there's demand, it's just the supply constraints. It's not like people are running away from the products. Having said that, I want to tap into your knowledge of this industry and that you do have companies that come out and it's gangbusters, and then maybe they have some issues with supply constraints and so on and so forth. This is kind of part of the process. Is that fair?

I think that's fair when it comes to in Video as well, and the rapid rate of innovation. I mean, they've almost become an Apple in every single year they're bringing out their latest neww chip set and design, and we go from Hopper swiftly on to Blackwell, and people have got to keep up with that innovation.

Just the way in which you store your.

Chips and the infrastructure within your data centers means that if they're vertically stored, well, that's going to lead to more heating issues. Then if you're doing it more broadly on a horizontal perspective. There is a lot of innovation that has to come along with in Video's own GPU CPUs and overall chipsets. So I think that they have said and guided to the market that yes, you're getting this reporting of overheating, Yes you're getting these reports of snags and design. This is entirely normal, and we're working very closely with our hyperscale sub clients to fix this, to innovate with them and ensure that we can get them out there as swiftly as possible. I think there has been also just trying to spreading out of AI demand. What's been interesting hearing from Jensen Wong of late has been the scaling laws. Basically, the theory goes is that the more data you fire, the more compute power you bring, the faster and more sophisticated.

These large language models become.

But actually we started to hear from the anthrop from the great reporting coming out of San Francisco with the Bloomberg team that Rachel Mets is saying maybe open aiyes had to slow down a little bit in terms of the developments of their own large language models because they're not getting as sophisticated as it happen in the Leaps and Bounds. Jensen still saying, Look, in the next decade, you're going to see a million times increase in compute. But we've just got to get there in terms of actually making it happen.

Yeah, I mean, hard to even imagine, hard to even imagine that kind of increase in compute at this point, Kun john'subney, I want to bring you back in here over a senior intell senior analysts over at Bloomberg Intelligence. We're seeing shares down about two percent in the after hours. A couple headlines the company sees fourth quarter revenue coming in at thirty seven point five billion dollars plus or minus two percent. That's pretty much in line with estimates at thirty seven point one billion dollars. Third quarter Data center revenue blowing past expectations at thirty point eight billion dollars estimates report twenty nine point one billion dollars Coon, John, what's the question you'd ask, Jensen Wong?

I mean, my questions really would focus on trying to figure out the physical twenty six calendar twenty twenty five black Well revenue ramp magnitudes and around gross margins. I mean, look, we have seen in the past when vidias come out and beat way more than what they did right now, and the stock has still plummeted double digits. You also have to keep in mind this end of the year. The stock has tripled this year, right, so there is some incentive for profit locking and taking the gains away from the table as well.

You know, I also do think about how do you feel, Kunjon, that they are giving numbers for fiscal year twenty twenty six good sign? Do you trust that visibility? Like, how do you think about their ability to put out a number and maybe that number might change based on if they figure out the supply issues.

I mean, I see that as a very strong sign I mean, look at this earning season across the semi sector right nobody is giving out numbers that far out. Even in Vida's competitors who are trying to address the same opportunity and are sing the same strong demand signals, are not giving out numbers, strong confident numbers that in year out. So that really speaks to the strength and the confidence that they have that they'll be able to support this demand and the demand is there, and you guys, it'd.

Be tech talk to him a lot, like I'm just curious with the top of mind, if you were sitting down with him right now, like top two.

Questions, and if Ed Ludlow was but he's out in fraternity leaves and congratulations.

To on Ed Ludler becoming a father.

But I think first and foremost we'd be asking exactly as Kuan Jhn has been saying, as you all have been saying, it's got to be about supply coming on tap and just talking a little bit more around Blackwell and the incredible demand, What exactly does that really mean?

Who are the key clients?

How are we seeing that diversify out of the main hyper scalers, if.

At all, and then I think sort of trying.

To articulate that, look, yes, maybe we haven't blown past the highest analyst expectations, but thirty seven and a half billion dollar guide that's still seventy percent ramp up in revenue. That's following a ninety percent ramp up in revenue of the fiscal quarter just reported their fiscal third quarter. I think he's just going to have to sort of remind the market how far they've come, how far they've still to go, and maybe just take a bit of a reality check here that you know, at the moment, the numbers will go up, but maybe not at the two hundred percent that we were hoping to see well, that we did see in the first quarter of twenty twenty five for their fiscal year reporting.

Hey coon, John ian King on the live blog bringing up a really interesting point, and it kind of gets at the question that I was asking with regard to super micro computer. Ian notes that cloud computing providers are the biggest companies in technology, and they still dominate in videous sources of revenue, making up fifty percent of sales for its data center unit. So that's just a handful of companies that are making up the majority of the revenue for the data center in video watchers want that number to go down. Three months ago that number was forty five percent. Is that a concern to you.

I mean, I don't want to look at it from quarter to because remember these large customers are lumpy in nature, right, they have to also manage their capex and deployments. We did see over the last two to three quarters, if I'm not wrong, the number come down. It was about close to fifty or even about fifty and it has been coming down steadily. So that was a good sign for us. I still have to go and digest the numbers later on, but the fifty percent in the short term might not be that great of a sign. But I would not jump to conclusions just looking at one quarter. It could be very well timing of you know, them picking up a lot more Hopper supply supply right now when they cannot get their hands on blackwell.

You know, I'm looking at the supply chain analysis on the Bloomberg function. When it comes to Nvidia, Microsoft, about nineteen percent of the revenue for Invidio, Meta, about ten percent, super Micro nearly eight percent Alphabet about six percent, Amazon more than five percent, Dell more than three percent. So we talk about a handful of companies, these cluster of companies that are so involved. You know, Caroline, I want to bring you back in here. You know, Nvidia. This has been such a focal point right the end of the earning season, just thinking about it so much. You know, how do you think about you know, Bloomberg Technology, you know, into the Thursday edition, you guys when you're on air and like, what's the tomorrow's story?

The tomorrow story.

I think we'll be trying to articulate where the growth trajectory goes from here. I think we're gonna hear from Jensen the next decade. You're gonna hear him talking about humanoid robots. You're gonna hear him talking about drug discovery, the capabilities of generative AI, the return on AI investment. So I think we're gonna want to be talking to the investors that back that vision. We're going to be wanting to hear from the analysts out there that are trying to square these numbers with where their own viewpoint have been on the here and now at the fiscal fourth quarter. But I think we're also going to we want to think about who else is in the space at the moment. It's answering some of the development issues, some of the heating issues, some of the concerns around AI, generative AI chip development and manufacturing. Who are the startups in the space, wh the rivals in the space? What are we seeing in terms of the hyper scalers building their own chips. So I think there's so many directions that we could go for, But for me, it's going to be really interesting talking about where does AI infrastructure go from here?

And where does in video's view on selver in AI? Where does in video's view on China? Where does in videos.

View on the next repurposing of their chips not just to keep hammering large language models, but the development of generative AI in the real world.

So what are some of the names, Caroline, that our investing audience has to have their eyes on. Is it the sam Altman's of the world who are trying to raise lots and lots of money to go after Invidia? Is it the hyperscalers who are going to be doing this in house? Who who holds a candle to them or who could hold a candle.

To them in terms of siphoning off future demand or in terms of just wanting to know who the name key players are.

Off future demand because you know, Intel, Intel, Intel's in a tough position right now, as you guys have reported on a lot over the last year. Am D maybe, but what about those upstarts.

Hmmm, I mean, and that's going to be interesting as to whether or not we just get a future type of chip development. You know, we've got the grocks for example, that are backed by venture backing who have been looking to ways in which we expand and have faster and more efficient chips. You've also got you know, different players out there thinking about not just the data that you have to train, but then the inferencing that you do, and that does that become a different type of conversation around the technology and ultimately whether you need to have more efficient chips within an energy source and an energy suck. So I think so many people AMPI has been doing things around that particular innovation of different types of chips. Eventually, will people start to go to Galdhi and what Intel has been providing. How much can AMD chip away in terms of market share, in terms of the AI part of the business as well. So there are so many people and analysts and investors that are looking at distributing.

Some of their bets.

I'm sure, but for now in video has been the only game in town and certainly the easiest one to back in terms of up into the right Coon.

Jent, I want to bring you back in here looking at our live blog. Ian King, who follows the semiconductor space and video as well. He says, one question analyst will have when the conference call begins, what's happening in networking sales? And that business slid sequentially dropping by that five hundred million dollars and videos acquired. Networking tech has faced opposition from many rivals, some of which argue for an industry standard approach rather than a reliance on and vidious proprietary technology. Weigh in on that, yeah, I.

Mean, look, we have identified since last year that networking in AI servers is going to be sort of the next wave of growth, especially in terms of where the dollars spend. The dollars go beyond just accelerators. So I mean, until now in media, if you look at the market for the first Hopper series, right, they had this advantage of shipping their own proprietary networking gear, which customers had no other option but to just buy that. So two things, right, They got all the dollars, but they also got great profit margins because they could really charge whatever they wanted. Now, the competition there is increasing. Customers want to move to Ethernet, which again Nvidia has started offering and starting from the black Bell series. So we are going to see that Ethernet revenue also increase for Nvidia, But when you compare it from perchip dollar perspective, it's still less. We still think positive for Nvidia's networking revenue share going forward, but there will be a lot more competition there. It won't be just one company taking everything in your area.

That's a really good point, right, And I do think about, you know, and Videa's really had this world to its own for a while, and you think about increasingly kind of what's going on in the future as there's more competition. YouTube Dynamic Duo, thank you so much. Your insight really so important to breaking down these results from Nvidia. Bloomberg Technology co host Caroline Hidketcher at eleven am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Television for Bloomberg Tech and of course our thanks to ku Joan Sabani of our Bloomberg Intelligence team. He's a senior semiconductor analyst. So again, some great insight we'll watch for some of you research. Let's continue our conversations. Bloomberg News Equities reporter at Ryan Lostelico with us. He has been writing about it and kind of you know, talking about markets bracing for what we might get from Nvidia. He joins us from Chicago. Also with us is our own Red Brown, who follows the earning season and sets us up. Bloomberg News Earnings reporter. He's back in New York City. Ryan, come on in on this your report. Ahead of the release in Nvidia, traders bracing for a potential three hundred billion dollar earnings move. It was down more than four percent though initially.

Yeah, absolutely, I don't think it would be all that surprising to see the stock really take some swings from where it's trading right now. I mean, this is not a huge move, especially not for our company as viollatile as Nvidia is. Just to put it in context. Palo Alto also reported that stock is at about five percent and after hours trading in video is obviously much bigger, but you know, not a huge move by their standard.

I like that Ryan's out here talking about Pallelt the networks. It's a good well there is Look, there are other companies out.

There, no question, but listen, we're gonna get you in just a moment. But Ryan, I mean, it's been so important in terms of market momentum, right, Like, give us some of that context. We talk about it all. We've talked about the mag seven, but when it comes to momentum that aid this is a big one.

Yeah.

Oh absolutely. The stock is almost tripled this year. It's added more than two trillion in market capitalization. Like you mentioned, it's the biggest stock in the world. You know, We've had plenty of analysts come out and say this is more important than the FED, this is more important than inflation data. This is the key report for Wall Street this week, if not this month. So it's obviously very significant. I do think, you know, we just got the numbers. People are still digesting the report. We are still waiting on the conference call. It's likely we're going to get a bigger move maybe, you know, once we get you know, full details, once we hear from you know, the management team once people get a little bit more context for this. But this is certainly not, you know, a sky is falling type report. It's falling short of some of the most optimistic expectations. But you know, people just got very used to forecasts that are just, you know, billions dollars above the consensus.

Carmen Ryanick here, stocks reporter on our live blog, digging into the plus or minus two percent on the revenue outlook that we got from Video a little math, doing some quick math, it means and Video expects fourth quarter revenue between thirty six points seventy five billion and thirty eight point twenty five billion. The average analyst estimate was thirty seven point one billion. So if it's on the minus two percent, it would fall short of expectations. And I think that's why you are seeing investors, at least in the aftermarket, wanting a little bit more color or commentary around this.

Okay, so Red Brown, come on in here, because you've got your eye on what's going on after hours and Video shares down about two percent? Is that what it is? Is that concern around that plus or minus two percent?

Yeah, I think it kind of has to be the main focus for everybody right now, you know sound it felt like analysts maybe weren't as kind of euphoric heading into this report. Things definitely war more tempered, So I guess it isn't that much of a surprise to see, you know, stock kind of trading a little bit less volatile than it has in recent quarters. I was also just looking at some of the customers because we don't read Ryan's point just how important this is for the wider market. And you know, Microsoft and Meta, two of their biggest customers, both not really reacting as well.

So so what are you read watching out for? Listen, you are with us throughout the whole earning season. It's been it feels like a long one, you know. But here we are with Nvidia, which is such a huge one in terms of the reporting season, and you know what we get from Nvideo. But you know, how are you thinking about it as we were kind of reporting into it and now we are on the other side, and there's still some questions to be had that will hopefully play it on the analyst call, but you know, walk us through it in an earning season, you know how this kind of fits in, especially against some of those MAGS seven, those very important big tech names.

I think one thing that I'm looking at for and Vidia specifically and kind of how it fits into the wider landscape is actually the R and D spending. So if we look and actually grow forty eight percent, if you compare that to their peers, super Micro forty five percent up this quarter, Broadcom jump seventy five percent. So when we kind of start to dig in beyond on just the top line numbers, I think a kind of an interesting dynamic is playing out there in video is kind of really expending hand over fist to keep up or to kind of continue to have their their lead in this race, And I think it really helps when you can, you know, double your revenue every quarter as well. That there's that spending three billion dollars on R and D is a little bit easier than it is for a company like Broadcom, which is actually you know, the percentage wise, the margin that they're spending is actually much higher, so that race they are kind of still a distant second compared to in videos, so trying to can maintain that lead that they have in the air space.

Hey, Ryan, what about when it comes to blackwell and demand around Blackwell. To what extent is that? The question on the call later it went from insane to incredible. As Caroline Hyde pointed out to us, how are you thinking about it?

Yeah?

Is that a deceleration to go from insane to incredible? I mean I think, you know, in general demand, I think it is.

You tell me, I think it is insane to incredible.

Yeah, I think that's a declation.

Yeah, we say incredible a lot. We throw that word around. When you say insane, that's like a whole other level.

Yeah, fair enough. Obviously, you know, people continue to focus on supply. There have been some you know, production hiccups here. Like I said before, people are focused very much on you know, pricing and margins for Blackwell. So all these things together, you know, this remains like a point of real focus for investors, even kind of beyond just sort of the headline numbers of the forecast and so forth.

Guys, thank you so much. Busy afternoon, of course. Bloomberg News Earnings reporter Red Brown out there in New York City. Ryan Lostelica in Chicago. He's Bloomberg News Equities reporter

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