No, we are abeeny of rebeiny macro associates looking ahead to the new year and writing this, some of Trump's policies will increase growth and reduce inflation, while others could be stagflationary. So the impact on growth, inflation, and on markets depends on how much of the former versus the latter nori are joint. Is now for more one for to see is a great singer. How difficult does it make it to look ahead to next year with any real clarity to come up with some kind of outlook when things are so difficult.

No, we are abeeny of rebeiny macro associates looking ahead to the new year and writing this, some of Trump's policies will increase growth and reduce inflation, while others could be stagflationary. So the impact on growth, inflation, and on markets depends on how much of the former versus the latter nori are joint. Is now for more one for to see is a great singer. How difficult does it make it to look ahead to next year with any real clarity to come up with some kind of outlook when things are so difficult.

There's a lot of policy uncertainty. As I pointed out, some of the economic policies of Traum may increase over time growth, reduce inflation, being overall pro business, keeping tax rates on capital and a liberal law, deregulating the economy, and things like increasing the production of hostil fuels and pushing down the prices of energy. Probably also this Dodge initiative, overtiming greaser economic efficiency and so on. So those are the positives, and over time they could increase growth, they could reduce inflation. But we know there are some of other policy we don't know how much they're going to be implemented, they will increase inflation and potentially be stockflationary. In my view, tariffs are inflationary. Protection is the risk of the economic world with China, first draconia, restriction to migration, if not the mass deportation. If we have unfunded physical deficits and the promises imply eight trillion dollars of deficits over additional over the next ten years, that's going to crowd out growth by increasing interest rates norminal and real, and the bond market digilans are going to wake up. If you try to disorderly weaken the dollar, that could be inflationary, and if you interfere with independence of the FAT. Now I think on the positive side, I think there are a number of factors that are going to constrain the bad policies. One is market discipline. If you follow pulse that inflationary, then bond market digitalans are going to wake up. Bond is going to go higher, the stock market is going to correct, and it cares about the bond market. It cares about the stock market. Secondly, Fed independence. If he follows policies the lead to inflation, the FED may not continue to cut thraight it's next year, may even raise rates if inflation.

There's a lot of policy uncertainty. As I pointed out, some of the economic policies of Traum may increase over time growth, reduce inflation, being overall pro business, keeping tax rates on capital and a liberal law, deregulating the economy, and things like increasing the production of hostil fuels and pushing down the prices of energy. Probably also this Dodge initiative, overtiming greaser economic efficiency and so on. So those are the positives, and over time they could increase growth, they could reduce inflation. But we know there are some of other policy we don't know how much they're going to be implemented, they will increase inflation and potentially be stockflationary. In my view, tariffs are inflationary. Protection is the risk of the economic world with China, first draconia, restriction to migration, if not the mass deportation. If we have unfunded physical deficits and the promises imply eight trillion dollars of deficits over additional over the next ten years, that's going to crowd out growth by increasing interest rates norminal and real, and the bond market digilans are going to wake up. If you try to disorderly weaken the dollar, that could be inflationary, and if you interfere with independence of the FAT. Now I think on the positive side, I think there are a number of factors that are going to constrain the bad policies. One is market discipline. If you follow pulse that inflationary, then bond market digitalans are going to wake up. Bond is going to go higher, the stock market is going to correct, and it cares about the bond market. It cares about the stock market. Secondly, Fed independence. If he follows policies the lead to inflation, the FED may not continue to cut thraight it's next year, may even raise rates if inflation.

Were to be going higher.

Were to be going higher.

And also policy choices, as you pointed out, on one side, you have people like Scott Bessett want to escalate the escalate on tariffs, and others are total trade hawks on trade and on China, like Peter Navarro. So it depends on the balance between who's going to be in powered.

And also policy choices, as you pointed out, on one side, you have people like Scott Bessett want to escalate the escalate on tariffs, and others are total trade hawks on trade and on China, like Peter Navarro. So it depends on the balance between who's going to be in powered.

Let's unpack some of that pe can't tariffs pick to pay already so far this morning, you've heard some of it. Plase weigh in if it's targeted, could be a good thing for the American economy.

Let's unpack some of that pe can't tariffs pick to pay already so far this morning, you've heard some of it. Plase weigh in if it's targeted, could be a good thing for the American economy.

Well, if it's targeted, I would say that the impacts on inflation are going to be modest, and maybe some of the reassuring that radio is occurring is going to continue, and there'll be actually pressure on our trade partners to say, if you don't want tariffs, you have to bring more investment semiconductors. Authors it Besy, you name it to the United States. So that's the escalator in order to de escalate. But I would say the higher does STARTFF become, the more there's an impact on improprices, the more there's an impact on inflation, and the more, there is global fragmentation, and there's also the risk, of course of trade wars of our trade partner retaliating against the United States. If that occurs, the impact on growth is going to be more negative than impact on inflation is going to be. Value depends on the size of these STARTUS. If it's Navaro types of policies on trade is taflationary. If it's escalated the escalate, maybe the impact inflation is moldest and the negative impact on growth is also modest.

Well, if it's targeted, I would say that the impacts on inflation are going to be modest, and maybe some of the reassuring that radio is occurring is going to continue, and there'll be actually pressure on our trade partners to say, if you don't want tariffs, you have to bring more investment semiconductors. Authors it Besy, you name it to the United States. So that's the escalator in order to de escalate. But I would say the higher does STARTFF become, the more there's an impact on improprices, the more there's an impact on inflation, and the more, there is global fragmentation, and there's also the risk, of course of trade wars of our trade partner retaliating against the United States. If that occurs, the impact on growth is going to be more negative than impact on inflation is going to be. Value depends on the size of these STARTUS. If it's Navaro types of policies on trade is taflationary. If it's escalated the escalate, maybe the impact inflation is moldest and the negative impact on growth is also modest.

So some people are arguing that we're in this wave of deglobalization that basically reverses some of the disinflationary forces of the three decades following really the mid eighties. I'm wondering whether that's actually true, whether that's what we're seeing, because there still is quite a bit of trade, it's just going different routes, and frankly, you could see that overproduction from places like China are going to lower prices in certain places even if they don't in the US if there walls up. In other words, are we overestimating the inflationary impact on a dramatic level of a lot of these tariffs?

So some people are arguing that we're in this wave of deglobalization that basically reverses some of the disinflationary forces of the three decades following really the mid eighties. I'm wondering whether that's actually true, whether that's what we're seeing, because there still is quite a bit of trade, it's just going different routes, and frankly, you could see that overproduction from places like China are going to lower prices in certain places even if they don't in the US if there walls up. In other words, are we overestimating the inflationary impact on a dramatic level of a lot of these tariffs?

Well, the impact of high tariffs on the United States would be inflationary. But if you think about the impact on growth and inflation, rest of the world will be this inflationary because if there is a shock to the demand for the experts of Europe, Asia, China, then there'll be excess supply. Growth is weakened in those parts of the world, and that leads to this inflation the rest of the world. So the impact on the US of high tariff is inflationary. The impact on the rest of the world is this inflationary because the access supplied.

Well, the impact of high tariffs on the United States would be inflationary. But if you think about the impact on growth and inflation, rest of the world will be this inflationary because if there is a shock to the demand for the experts of Europe, Asia, China, then there'll be excess supply. Growth is weakened in those parts of the world, and that leads to this inflation the rest of the world. So the impact on the US of high tariff is inflationary. The impact on the rest of the world is this inflationary because the access supplied.

You used to be called doctor doom. Are you retiring that mantle?

You used to be called doctor doom. Are you retiring that mantle?

I always said, I'm.

I always said, I'm.

Not doctor douma, doctor realist. There are plenty of upside in hellmic growth, and by the way, some of them are thinking that are more secular. I think the impact of technological innovation implied that potential growth in the US by the end of the decade could be close to three percent. And the fact we already have seen for the last couple of years growth of two point five to twenty eight percent with inflation falling, is signed that maybe PRODUCTI growth is increasing and potential is increasing, and we can grow faster with having lower inflation.

Not doctor douma, doctor realist. There are plenty of upside in hellmic growth, and by the way, some of them are thinking that are more secular. I think the impact of technological innovation implied that potential growth in the US by the end of the decade could be close to three percent. And the fact we already have seen for the last couple of years growth of two point five to twenty eight percent with inflation falling, is signed that maybe PRODUCTI growth is increasing and potential is increasing, and we can grow faster with having lower inflation.

So I'm not doctor.

So I'm not doctor.

Dum when it comes to terrorists. Just to go back to this idea of the personnel. We know what Jamison Greer as well thinks about China. In hearing to Congress, he had talked about strategically coupling. Do you expect that over the next four years between Beijing and Washington.

Dum when it comes to terrorists. Just to go back to this idea of the personnel. We know what Jamison Greer as well thinks about China. In hearing to Congress, he had talked about strategically coupling. Do you expect that over the next four years between Beijing and Washington.

Yes, I do.

Yes, I do.

I think that one of the biggest risks is not just tarif in general, but a broader economic war against China.

I think that one of the biggest risks is not just tarif in general, but a broader economic war against China.

Ifles.

Ifles.

Listen to the long list of complaints of the Drum administration. They say China has been thriding on free riding on international trading system, tariff, non TARIFERI barriers, government procurement policies, FTI policies, intellectual property rights and of course fend and lots of other things. And also geopolitically, there may be an attempt to try to contain the rise of China. So the biggest risk is not just TARIF on China, but how much the overall policies forward. China is going to be confrontational, and if they feel that we're trying to contain their rise, they could become quite aggressive themselves.

Listen to the long list of complaints of the Drum administration. They say China has been thriding on free riding on international trading system, tariff, non TARIFERI barriers, government procurement policies, FTI policies, intellectual property rights and of course fend and lots of other things. And also geopolitically, there may be an attempt to try to contain the rise of China. So the biggest risk is not just TARIF on China, but how much the overall policies forward. China is going to be confrontational, and if they feel that we're trying to contain their rise, they could become quite aggressive themselves.

Well.

Well.

From page of the ft today talking about these four government back authorities that are telling local chip companies that you can no longer buy silicone from the United States, they're no longer safe or reliable or we already in this moment you're describing, Well.

From page of the ft today talking about these four government back authorities that are telling local chip companies that you can no longer buy silicone from the United States, they're no longer safe or reliable or we already in this moment you're describing, Well.

Certainly in anything to do with the high tech, we've started already in the by the administration to be in a process of de coupling, restriction to experts, both of semiconductor and circonductor equipment, restriction to anything investiated with AI and high technology.

Certainly in anything to do with the high tech, we've started already in the by the administration to be in a process of de coupling, restriction to experts, both of semiconductor and circonductor equipment, restriction to anything investiated with AI and high technology.

Under Biden was an arrow yard and.

Under Biden was an arrow yard and.

High fences and stuff that was supposed to be critical.

High fences and stuff that was supposed to be critical.

So the risking.

So the risking.

I think that in the case of Trump administration, we may move from the risking with China to decoupling with China did something much more, how to say, severe.

I think that in the case of Trump administration, we may move from the risking with China to decoupling with China did something much more, how to say, severe.

Does Europe need to pick a side.

Does Europe need to pick a side.

They'll be in a very very tough position because geopolitically Europeans are close to the United States, NATO and so on, but they do a lot of trade and investment with China. You know, under the buy the administration was easy because there was a compromise within the digit seven about the risking as opposed to the coupling. If his US goes towards the coupling, It says European I have to follow us otherwise that consequences not just on trade but also NATO security and you name it. Then I think Europe is already weak being a tougher spot.

They'll be in a very very tough position because geopolitically Europeans are close to the United States, NATO and so on, but they do a lot of trade and investment with China. You know, under the buy the administration was easy because there was a compromise within the digit seven about the risking as opposed to the coupling. If his US goes towards the coupling, It says European I have to follow us otherwise that consequences not just on trade but also NATO security and you name it. Then I think Europe is already weak being a tougher spot.

How much worse could things get for the Europeans. We've been saying through this morning that France is ungovernable at the moment, which means it can't deliver reforms. And you know in Europe things have to get worse before ultimately they find solutions. How much worse does it need to get?

How much worse could things get for the Europeans. We've been saying through this morning that France is ungovernable at the moment, which means it can't deliver reforms. And you know in Europe things have to get worse before ultimately they find solutions. How much worse does it need to get?

Well, things are really pretty bad already in Europe. I think that potential growth is below one percent in Europe growth Europe is going to be in the Eurozone less than one percent next year. So and structural reform I'm not going to occur anytime soon. There's a fragmentation between these twenty seven countries. Some of them want more integration, some of them want less. At the core of Europe, German in Germany and France are going to politically unstable. So I don't see either the Letter Report or the Drug Report for more integers, for a common market, for more productivity, Combatants being implemented.

Well, things are really pretty bad already in Europe. I think that potential growth is below one percent in Europe growth Europe is going to be in the Eurozone less than one percent next year. So and structural reform I'm not going to occur anytime soon. There's a fragmentation between these twenty seven countries. Some of them want more integration, some of them want less. At the core of Europe, German in Germany and France are going to politically unstable. So I don't see either the Letter Report or the Drug Report for more integers, for a common market, for more productivity, Combatants being implemented.

So it looks pretty dark for your brain.

So it looks pretty dark for your brain.

Now, which is the reason why I'm surprised that so many people come in and they say it's priced in. We don't really see a path out of here. We don't necessarily see an economic engine or the political will or capability to really counter it. At what point are we facing off with the potential dollar shock? And I ask this because yes, THEO is likely to stay around here a week and further, but what if it actually weakens dramatically. Is the ECB is forced to cut rates and that divergence widens.

Now, which is the reason why I'm surprised that so many people come in and they say it's priced in. We don't really see a path out of here. We don't necessarily see an economic engine or the political will or capability to really counter it. At what point are we facing off with the potential dollar shock? And I ask this because yes, THEO is likely to stay around here a week and further, but what if it actually weakens dramatically. Is the ECB is forced to cut rates and that divergence widens.

Well, there are many good reasons why the dollar may continue to strengthen. One is, of course, star if if they reduce the trade deficit is going to strengthen.

Well, there are many good reasons why the dollar may continue to strengthen. One is, of course, star if if they reduce the trade deficit is going to strengthen.

Two.

Two.

Trumpet said, I want to have actually the dollar at the center of the global reserve system, and therefore that implies you want strong dollar than a week dollar relative grow differential relative monetary policies. The fact that the US is innovating and capital is flowing into the US capital markets and the stock market all implied that the dollar over time should become stronger. The euro and other currencies should become weaker. The problem however, is that Trump says a strong dollar has led to the industrialization, to American carnage, people free writing on us, to having large trade deficits, and we want at some point a week dollar. The fundamentals imply a stronger dollar, but policy that may be an attempt eventually, maybe in the second half of an administration, to find an agreement on currency, maybe to say either you accept ten percent tariffs or you accept a ten percent depreciation of the dollar.

Trumpet said, I want to have actually the dollar at the center of the global reserve system, and therefore that implies you want strong dollar than a week dollar relative grow differential relative monetary policies. The fact that the US is innovating and capital is flowing into the US capital markets and the stock market all implied that the dollar over time should become stronger. The euro and other currencies should become weaker. The problem however, is that Trump says a strong dollar has led to the industrialization, to American carnage, people free writing on us, to having large trade deficits, and we want at some point a week dollar. The fundamentals imply a stronger dollar, but policy that may be an attempt eventually, maybe in the second half of an administration, to find an agreement on currency, maybe to say either you accept ten percent tariffs or you accept a ten percent depreciation of the dollar.

I would not rule out there'll.

I would not rule out there'll.

Be some big Mara Lago agreement. Is you know, the effects agreement are always in a resort, you know Breta, No Woods America, the coach Lasa, you know Louver and so on, so and mar Lago acord is something that they're going to think about, not in the first two years, but down the line they're going to say to the trading partners, you don't want tariffs.

Be some big Mara Lago agreement. Is you know, the effects agreement are always in a resort, you know Breta, No Woods America, the coach Lasa, you know Louver and so on, so and mar Lago acord is something that they're going to think about, not in the first two years, but down the line they're going to say to the trading partners, you don't want tariffs.

You have to do other things for us.

You have to do other things for us.

No reale. You've had a big move in bigcoin over the last month or so. I had a big move over the last several years. Have you rethought the way you think about what happening care.

No reale. You've had a big move in bigcoin over the last month or so. I had a big move over the last several years. Have you rethought the way you think about what happening care.

Not really?

Not really?

I mean, people talk about bitcoin being a cryptocurrency like the other ones, but they're not really currencies. They're not a unit of account, they're not a scalable means of payment, they're not a stable store of value. They're not a single numeror Bitcoin in the past, when to seventeen down then to sixteen and has above one hundred, you could have another fifty percent correction. So it's a speculative act, like mime stocks, sparks.

I mean, people talk about bitcoin being a cryptocurrency like the other ones, but they're not really currencies. They're not a unit of account, they're not a scalable means of payment, they're not a stable store of value. They're not a single numeror Bitcoin in the past, when to seventeen down then to sixteen and has above one hundred, you could have another fifty percent correction. So it's a speculative act, like mime stocks, sparks.

And others, highly volatile.

And others, highly volatile.

Many people are going to it, but don't take El Salvador the force. Everyone's used bitcoin as legal tender and less than one percent of ale transaction occurring in bitcoin, so I don't think it's going to ever become a currency.

Many people are going to it, but don't take El Salvador the force. Everyone's used bitcoin as legal tender and less than one percent of ale transaction occurring in bitcoin, so I don't think it's going to ever become a currency.

There's going to be a speculative act.

There's going to be a speculative act.

One thing the dolar is appreciated against is bitcoin, and I think this is where I would see some separation between what's happening with main coins and mainstocks and what is happening with bitcoin. There seems to be a preference. There are market participants who believe that this is a place to be if you're worried about it. Appreciation of the US dollar and a fiscal trajectory of the United States of America do you see a case for it there?

One thing the dolar is appreciated against is bitcoin, and I think this is where I would see some separation between what's happening with main coins and mainstocks and what is happening with bitcoin. There seems to be a preference. There are market participants who believe that this is a place to be if you're worried about it. Appreciation of the US dollar and a fiscal trajectory of the United States of America do you see a case for it there?

Not really, because actually when the FED was essentially rising rates and inflation was higher, Bitcoin was falling, like in twenty two, as there was the stock market correction, and other stocks are going higher and the FED is easy and inflation has fallen, Bitcoin is going higher again, So historically has not been a hedge against inflation. Actually looks like it's highly correlated. Positively, bit stocks a better relative to the equity market, so it's not a traditional like hedge like gold that is in periods of time or inflation rising or the basement or worries about the dollarization. So it's something to me looks like expectedly a said, it is highly correlated with equity, so it's not a hedge against inflation.

Not really, because actually when the FED was essentially rising rates and inflation was higher, Bitcoin was falling, like in twenty two, as there was the stock market correction, and other stocks are going higher and the FED is easy and inflation has fallen, Bitcoin is going higher again, So historically has not been a hedge against inflation. Actually looks like it's highly correlated. Positively, bit stocks a better relative to the equity market, so it's not a traditional like hedge like gold that is in periods of time or inflation rising or the basement or worries about the dollarization. So it's something to me looks like expectedly a said, it is highly correlated with equity, so it's not a hedge against inflation.

You say, sort of parallel tracks to memestocks and some of the other euphoria that we've seen. At the same time, there seems to be something more concrete behind this. You mentioned gold, and we are seeing that real gold and tandem because of what John is talking about, that store of value outside of the US dollar to protect against some sort of loss of fiscal dominance. Do you see with a more institutionalized structure endorsed by a presidential administration, there being a case for at least a crypto based store of value that could offset some of the risks of volatility in the dollar and the potential loss on the margins of fiscal dominance down the road.

You say, sort of parallel tracks to memestocks and some of the other euphoria that we've seen. At the same time, there seems to be something more concrete behind this. You mentioned gold, and we are seeing that real gold and tandem because of what John is talking about, that store of value outside of the US dollar to protect against some sort of loss of fiscal dominance. Do you see with a more institutionalized structure endorsed by a presidential administration, there being a case for at least a crypto based store of value that could offset some of the risks of volatility in the dollar and the potential loss on the margins of fiscal dominance down the road.

I'm not sure because if you're worried about inflation the basement of fiat currency or even the dollarization, there are plenty of other assets that provide a good head shorten treasuries, tapes, oil out commodities, gold, precious metal. So it's not as if there is not other alternatives. And as I pointed out, in the last few years, when inflation was higher, actually bitcoon was falling, and when inflection has fallen, bcone is going higher, so it doesn't look like it's been actually negatively correlated with inflation. So it is a spectul debaset for some people is a store of value. But if you want to hedge yourself against inflation, I think is that a spectrum of variety of other assets that are backed actually by real income or something store of value that are a better hedge against some of the risks that people worry about.

I'm not sure because if you're worried about inflation the basement of fiat currency or even the dollarization, there are plenty of other assets that provide a good head shorten treasuries, tapes, oil out commodities, gold, precious metal. So it's not as if there is not other alternatives. And as I pointed out, in the last few years, when inflation was higher, actually bitcoon was falling, and when inflection has fallen, bcone is going higher, so it doesn't look like it's been actually negatively correlated with inflation. So it is a spectul debaset for some people is a store of value. But if you want to hedge yourself against inflation, I think is that a spectrum of variety of other assets that are backed actually by real income or something store of value that are a better hedge against some of the risks that people worry about.

But given the change of tone in Washington, do you think there could be retail adoption at any point.

But given the change of tone in Washington, do you think there could be retail adoption at any point.

Oh yeah, and.

Oh yeah, and.

There's already been retail adoption. But my word is actually that the regulation on crypto might become looser like they were before, and then you have another speculative run, You have another sets of scams like FTXSPF and so on, and then you get another bust. So the risk is who are going to go towards a very little regulation. You know, there are lots of players in this space that are quite shady, and the lack of regulation actually leads to a bigger bubble and a bigger bust.

There's already been retail adoption. But my word is actually that the regulation on crypto might become looser like they were before, and then you have another speculative run, You have another sets of scams like FTXSPF and so on, and then you get another bust. So the risk is who are going to go towards a very little regulation. You know, there are lots of players in this space that are quite shady, and the lack of regulation actually leads to a bigger bubble and a bigger bust.

On the line, none you a long time, Just want to finish up with something positive. Looking out to twenty twenty five. Favorite region line now, favorite economy, The place you're most optimistic about for next year?

On the line, none you a long time, Just want to finish up with something positive. Looking out to twenty twenty five. Favorite region line now, favorite economy, The place you're most optimistic about for next year?

Which one?

Which one?

It's a bit of consensus, but I think the United States still is going to outperform weth in terms of economic growth and equity markets.

It's a bit of consensus, but I think the United States still is going to outperform weth in terms of economic growth and equity markets.

Yes, it seems to be the one place to be here. It repeated it don't we the United States. It keeps coming back to America.

Yes, it seems to be the one place to be here. It repeated it don't we the United States. It keeps coming back to America.

It feels like Tina. This is the Tina trade. There is no alternative at a time or essentially, growth is concentrated in the world's biggest economy, and maybe it's trickling out, maybe it's not. But nonetheless you also have yield.

It feels like Tina. This is the Tina trade. There is no alternative at a time or essentially, growth is concentrated in the world's biggest economy, and maybe it's trickling out, maybe it's not. But nonetheless you also have yield.

Here, no reel. It's good to say it, sir for catching up with us. Thank you. Noria Rabini, that of Rabeni Macro Associates,

Here, no reel. It's good to say it, sir for catching up with us. Thank you. Noria Rabini, that of Rabeni Macro Associates,