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Sure compatison here for a good conversation to start the morning off, and of course we devolve that to a dollar discussion and on from there. She's focused on crypto. We'll get to that in a moment. Her effort at the Council on Foreign Relations is noticed. I can't say enough about the new edition of Foreign Affairs magazine. You'll see it in the next couple days or so. It's just absolutely extraordinary. I've got to go to dollar here right now? Is dollar heads?

Sure compatison here for a good conversation to start the morning off, and of course we devolve that to a dollar discussion and on from there. She's focused on crypto. We'll get to that in a moment. Her effort at the Council on Foreign Relations is noticed. I can't say enough about the new edition of Foreign Affairs magazine. You'll see it in the next couple days or so. It's just absolutely extraordinary. I've got to go to dollar here right now? Is dollar heads?

Your money?

Your money?

Is it threatened by all that's going on in Washington?

Is it threatened by all that's going on in Washington?

Longer term, yes, I think there is a threat to the dollar from some of these policies. The US relies on demand for treasuries and the idea that the Treasury is going to be the biggest bond mark in the world. Liquid safe, always transactional, and if you're putting tariffs on allies as well as adversaries, over time, they may want to diversify away from those assets. Now, there aren't a lot of places for them to go, but one place we've seen clearly over the last couple of years is gold. And you are seeing data showing China reducing its treasury holdings. Obviously we know Russia did over the last several years. So the policies we're putting forward today, I think do create some risk. Now there's new sources of demand that we can talk about when we get to crypto, but when we think about foreign holdings of US bonds, I think that is a source of risk that could push yields higher and weigh on growth.

Longer term, yes, I think there is a threat to the dollar from some of these policies. The US relies on demand for treasuries and the idea that the Treasury is going to be the biggest bond mark in the world. Liquid safe, always transactional, and if you're putting tariffs on allies as well as adversaries, over time, they may want to diversify away from those assets. Now, there aren't a lot of places for them to go, but one place we've seen clearly over the last couple of years is gold. And you are seeing data showing China reducing its treasury holdings. Obviously we know Russia did over the last several years. So the policies we're putting forward today, I think do create some risk. Now there's new sources of demand that we can talk about when we get to crypto, but when we think about foreign holdings of US bonds, I think that is a source of risk that could push yields higher and weigh on growth.

You know, does it do you get a sense that this White House, this economic team at the White House, that they have a sense that, generally speaking, markets do not like uncertainty, whether it's uncertainty of policy, uncertainly uncertainty of rhetoric. Is that something that has an audience do you think down there in DC? Or is it just kind of overshadowed by this is a president that wants to do what he wants to do.

You know, does it do you get a sense that this White House, this economic team at the White House, that they have a sense that, generally speaking, markets do not like uncertainty, whether it's uncertainty of policy, uncertainly uncertainty of rhetoric. Is that something that has an audience do you think down there in DC? Or is it just kind of overshadowed by this is a president that wants to do what he wants to do.

President Trump has said in the last few weeks that he knows there might be some short term pain to to these long term goals. I think there's probably a degree of pain reflected in the markets that would get his and his team's attention and maybe cause them to take a step back at least temporarily. But I don't honestly know if today, looking at the sell off we saw in the stock market last week and the continued softness we're seeing this week registers.

President Trump has said in the last few weeks that he knows there might be some short term pain to to these long term goals. I think there's probably a degree of pain reflected in the markets that would get his and his team's attention and maybe cause them to take a step back at least temporarily. But I don't honestly know if today, looking at the sell off we saw in the stock market last week and the continued softness we're seeing this week registers.

I look at the follow through of all this, and I guess I go back, like a lot of people, to real GDP.

I look at the follow through of all this, and I guess I go back, like a lot of people, to real GDP.

The fact is.

The fact is.

Atlanta GDP now a snapshot of where we are right now is coming in with a vengeance. Do you sense a momentum to uh, you know, to make some news here on a What's today Tuesday?

Atlanta GDP now a snapshot of where we are right now is coming in with a vengeance. Do you sense a momentum to uh, you know, to make some news here on a What's today Tuesday?

Tuesday?

Tuesday?

On a Tuesday morning.

On a Tuesday morning.

Yes, I'm worrying about I got the stitches out from where the damn dog bit me.

Yes, I'm worrying about I got the stitches out from where the damn dog bit me.

Just as simple as I can.

Just as simple as I can.

Are we heading towards two point five percent or lower real GDP?

Are we heading towards two point five percent or lower real GDP?

Well, here's what's so interesting, Tom. You know, last year GDP was much stronger than expected. We've gone into this year strong. We've seen that in the most recent earning season. But that's all backward looking. What drives the economy is confidence and incomes. So people still have incomes. The job market's still strong outside of certain DC agencies. I don't mean to be snarky about that, but confidence is where we're seeing some question marks. The other piece that's changing is economic surprises. A lot of economists revised up their expectations immediately after the election. What we've seen over the last several weeks now is data coming in below expectations, disappointing, and that indicator coming down.

Well, here's what's so interesting, Tom. You know, last year GDP was much stronger than expected. We've gone into this year strong. We've seen that in the most recent earning season. But that's all backward looking. What drives the economy is confidence and incomes. So people still have incomes. The job market's still strong outside of certain DC agencies. I don't mean to be snarky about that, but confidence is where we're seeing some question marks. The other piece that's changing is economic surprises. A lot of economists revised up their expectations immediately after the election. What we've seen over the last several weeks now is data coming in below expectations, disappointing, and that indicator coming down.

Now.

Now.

I want to be careful on causation, but it's correlating beautifully with the ten year yield. So the market's pricing in two fed cuts again, the ten year yield is getting lower. All of that is coming hand in hand with both worries about the forward looking economic outlook and disappointments.

I want to be careful on causation, but it's correlating beautifully with the ten year yield. So the market's pricing in two fed cuts again, the ten year yield is getting lower. All of that is coming hand in hand with both worries about the forward looking economic outlook and disappointments.

Yea to four digits, Paul pattersons in the room, so we got to, you know, go four decimal points alutely one point eight nine nine four on the ten year realield.

Yea to four digits, Paul pattersons in the room, so we got to, you know, go four decimal points alutely one point eight nine nine four on the ten year realield.

That's an ian linga number top go.

That's an ian linga number top go.

These are the top stories on the Bloomberg terminal. Tom, guess what's number one here? Your favorite bitcoin? Bitcoin slides below ninety thousand is crypto selloff gathers steam to me, I know you're recently at with a piece and CFR on the crypto. I kind of just view bitcoin is just a sense of risk appetite out there in the marketplace.

These are the top stories on the Bloomberg terminal. Tom, guess what's number one here? Your favorite bitcoin? Bitcoin slides below ninety thousand is crypto selloff gathers steam to me, I know you're recently at with a piece and CFR on the crypto. I kind of just view bitcoin is just a sense of risk appetite out there in the marketplace.

That's it is. Are we saying risk off a little bit here?

That's it is. Are we saying risk off a little bit here?

Yeah, I mean it's Bitcoin correlates very well with tech stocks, which is not surprising. At the end of the day. Cryptocurrencies are a form of fintech. So when you see, you know, the mag seven come down, it's not shocking to me to see Bitcoin come down. If that sell off, if Navidia disappoints tomorrow, boy, I think you see bitcoin going down further. But it gets me back to our treasury point earlier. President Trump, in one of his executive orders, is very explicitly supporting the development of digital assets and crypto and specifically stable coin. And I want to highlight this because to the degree stable coins gather momentum, gather assets, they're backed by the dollar. Ones are backed by treasuries and other cash like assets. This is a source of demand for treasuries that I think Treasury Secretary Bessett is keeping a close eye on tether, just that one has something like one hundred and thirteen billion dollars worth of treasury and treasury like securities.

Yeah, I mean it's Bitcoin correlates very well with tech stocks, which is not surprising. At the end of the day. Cryptocurrencies are a form of fintech. So when you see, you know, the mag seven come down, it's not shocking to me to see Bitcoin come down. If that sell off, if Navidia disappoints tomorrow, boy, I think you see bitcoin going down further. But it gets me back to our treasury point earlier. President Trump, in one of his executive orders, is very explicitly supporting the development of digital assets and crypto and specifically stable coin. And I want to highlight this because to the degree stable coins gather momentum, gather assets, they're backed by the dollar. Ones are backed by treasuries and other cash like assets. This is a source of demand for treasuries that I think Treasury Secretary Bessett is keeping a close eye on tether, just that one has something like one hundred and thirteen billion dollars worth of treasury and treasury like securities.

Today.

Today.

Rebecca Pattison with this of course on your morning commute and also on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast growing each and every day.

Rebecca Pattison with this of course on your morning commute and also on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast growing each and every day.

Can't say enough about YouTube premium.

Can't say enough about YouTube premium.

I'm reading the book Mark Richard's book on YouTube and YouTube premium. Sure, I'm glad I did. It's sort of slick and all that. Let's go back to JP Morgan and Bestmer's trust. Is there an underlying bitcoin?

I'm reading the book Mark Richard's book on YouTube and YouTube premium. Sure, I'm glad I did. It's sort of slick and all that. Let's go back to JP Morgan and Bestmer's trust. Is there an underlying bitcoin?

Please?

Please?

Where's the underlying to support a theory of bitcoin?

Where's the underlying to support a theory of bitcoin?

I mean, bitcoin itself to me anyway, remains a speculative asset. And I'm not saying that lightly. The Bank for International Settlements did a really detailed report about a year and a half ago. It's worth reading, talking about the development of crypto, and it highlights, based on a global survey, a very detailed global survey, that the bulk of owners of bitcoin today are young men under the age of thirty five, retail investors, and it's a momentum trade.

I mean, bitcoin itself to me anyway, remains a speculative asset. And I'm not saying that lightly. The Bank for International Settlements did a really detailed report about a year and a half ago. It's worth reading, talking about the development of crypto, and it highlights, based on a global survey, a very detailed global survey, that the bulk of owners of bitcoin today are young men under the age of thirty five, retail investors, and it's a momentum trade.

Yeah, I should say worldwide, folks. And you see me say this on social The leadership here is Raphael our au Er at the Bank of International Settlements. He has the best whatever your belief on bitcoin, I mean, you know, Matt Miller should read it.

Yeah, I should say worldwide, folks. And you see me say this on social The leadership here is Raphael our au Er at the Bank of International Settlements. He has the best whatever your belief on bitcoin, I mean, you know, Matt Miller should read it.

Yes, if you can find his past code to cashtow is Rebecca.

Yes, if you can find his past code to cashtow is Rebecca.

Is this administration? I mean, I think President trumpets some point, whether it's campaign or where, describe yourself as a crypto president. Is this a crypto presidency? Is this something where the next four years we can see the US regulatory framework support crypto in.

Is this administration? I mean, I think President trumpets some point, whether it's campaign or where, describe yourself as a crypto president. Is this a crypto presidency? Is this something where the next four years we can see the US regulatory framework support crypto in.

This country one hundred percent. I think over the next six twelve months we will see regulatory clarity which is going to allow more integration between crypto assets and the traditional banking system. And I think it probably will get more broad adoption, so it won't just be the young men, it will be more types of investors. And that's good for crypto in that it'll reduce volatility by having more liquidity. The risk one needs to watch is that as it gets bigger and more integrated, it becomes a source of systemic risk. You know, if you have a hack like we did this past week in by bit right one hundred or sorry, one point five billion dollar hack of a cold wallet which is supposed to be saved right cold while it is offline, but that happened in the United States, we would have contagion and and that you know, it's not just going to be Silicon Valley bank. It would be broader. So that's the thing one needs to watch out for. You can have regulation to give them the ability to grow and innovate, you still have to have a few consumer guardrails there.

This country one hundred percent. I think over the next six twelve months we will see regulatory clarity which is going to allow more integration between crypto assets and the traditional banking system. And I think it probably will get more broad adoption, so it won't just be the young men, it will be more types of investors. And that's good for crypto in that it'll reduce volatility by having more liquidity. The risk one needs to watch is that as it gets bigger and more integrated, it becomes a source of systemic risk. You know, if you have a hack like we did this past week in by bit right one hundred or sorry, one point five billion dollar hack of a cold wallet which is supposed to be saved right cold while it is offline, but that happened in the United States, we would have contagion and and that you know, it's not just going to be Silicon Valley bank. It would be broader. So that's the thing one needs to watch out for. You can have regulation to give them the ability to grow and innovate, you still have to have a few consumer guardrails there.

Our listeners and viewers know where I am on this, and I think Mss Patterson knows where I am on this.

Our listeners and viewers know where I am on this, and I think Mss Patterson knows where I am on this.

So let's cut to the chase.

So let's cut to the chase.

First thing I did this morning is from peak to where we are now, bitdog is down twenty percent.

First thing I did this morning is from peak to where we are now, bitdog is down twenty percent.

That's not a currency.

That's not a currency.

We've got all sorts of ira etf Eric Beltcheunas, Blackrock, this, that.

We've got all sorts of ira etf Eric Beltcheunas, Blackrock, this, that.

And the other doing it.

And the other doing it.

What should we say to those people if we pop down another ten percent? I mean horrific bear markets in the equity market are negative thirty five percent.

What should we say to those people if we pop down another ten percent? I mean horrific bear markets in the equity market are negative thirty five percent.

If we get that in bitcoin.

If we get that in bitcoin.

And we're now letting everybody have bitcoin, what's going to be the.

And we're now letting everybody have bitcoin, what's going to be the.

Out Well again my concern. I think to the degree digital assets encourage more financial innovation in the United States, that's great, right. Our financial system is creative and broad and deep, and that helps the US economy. What we need to be mindful of is that the pool of people today, not in the future, but today who are trading bitcoin and these currencies aren't necessarily aware of how to save for retirement in a safe, methodical way. This is not an easy path to retirement riches, and if they lose their money, they have less ability to buy a home to invest for the longer term. So understanding the volatility of what they're buying. That's I hope that these cryptocur companies do a lot more education going forward to help these people invest in these assets wisely. Right now, I don't see a lot of evidence of that.

Out Well again my concern. I think to the degree digital assets encourage more financial innovation in the United States, that's great, right. Our financial system is creative and broad and deep, and that helps the US economy. What we need to be mindful of is that the pool of people today, not in the future, but today who are trading bitcoin and these currencies aren't necessarily aware of how to save for retirement in a safe, methodical way. This is not an easy path to retirement riches, and if they lose their money, they have less ability to buy a home to invest for the longer term. So understanding the volatility of what they're buying. That's I hope that these cryptocur companies do a lot more education going forward to help these people invest in these assets wisely. Right now, I don't see a lot of evidence of that.

Paul Out on YouTube live chat, Thank You Live, Chack can be very smart. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts. This guy one word tulips.

Paul Out on YouTube live chat, Thank You Live, Chack can be very smart. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts. This guy one word tulips.

One of the things that is the regulatory environment. Like in the last administration, in the Bide administration, Gary Ganser, I expected him. I think a lot of people did that. A he understood crypto and B he was going to take a forceful hand and kind of pushing the regulatory framework forward, which most participants are asking for.

One of the things that is the regulatory environment. Like in the last administration, in the Bide administration, Gary Ganser, I expected him. I think a lot of people did that. A he understood crypto and B he was going to take a forceful hand and kind of pushing the regulatory framework forward, which most participants are asking for.

Yes, yes he did not. Really.

Yes, yes he did not. Really.

What do we know about this administration, the Trump administration.

What do we know about this administration, the Trump administration.

Well, there's In the last administration, there was some debate fight whatever word you want to use, between the different regulatory agencies on who would be the lead on digital assets. I think in this administration, we're likely to see a lighter touch, probably led by the CFTC rather than the SEC. I think we'll get some legislation from Congress through probably in the next few months, which will also create a clear path. And these companies need it, they deserve it right. They need to know the rules of the road, and the banks and other asset manageers need to know the rules of the road. So I do think this administration is going to be incredibly helpful on that front. Again, my hope and my ask if I could, if I could be there in the White House today, would be, please don't forget some consumer protection, some consumer guardrails.

Well, there's In the last administration, there was some debate fight whatever word you want to use, between the different regulatory agencies on who would be the lead on digital assets. I think in this administration, we're likely to see a lighter touch, probably led by the CFTC rather than the SEC. I think we'll get some legislation from Congress through probably in the next few months, which will also create a clear path. And these companies need it, they deserve it right. They need to know the rules of the road, and the banks and other asset manageers need to know the rules of the road. So I do think this administration is going to be incredibly helpful on that front. Again, my hope and my ask if I could, if I could be there in the White House today, would be, please don't forget some consumer protection, some consumer guardrails.

Do you have in your head?

Do you have in your head?

A price of bitcoin south where everybody starts wringing their hands. I mean we're eighty nine thousand, is it eighty? Is at fifty?

A price of bitcoin south where everybody starts wringing their hands. I mean we're eighty nine thousand, is it eighty? Is at fifty?

I mean, I have no idea.

I mean, I have no idea.

So my worst case scenario, a realistic worst case scenario, would be that we get some disappointment out of one of the big tech companies in Navidia, whoever it is, it doesn't matter, and we get more of a concerted sell off, maybe in response to tariffs, China puts some holds on us tech companies acting in China. Those sorts of maneuvers, you get a bigger sell off in tech, which is not impossible given valuations, given ownership, and that contagion pulls down cryptocurrencies in a meaningful way because these investors own crypto and they own meme stocks, and they own a lot of tech, and so they get hit on both fronts. That could get some momentum and pull down the broader market. I don't know if anyone buys that dip, because they just need to be covering their losses at that point.

So my worst case scenario, a realistic worst case scenario, would be that we get some disappointment out of one of the big tech companies in Navidia, whoever it is, it doesn't matter, and we get more of a concerted sell off, maybe in response to tariffs, China puts some holds on us tech companies acting in China. Those sorts of maneuvers, you get a bigger sell off in tech, which is not impossible given valuations, given ownership, and that contagion pulls down cryptocurrencies in a meaningful way because these investors own crypto and they own meme stocks, and they own a lot of tech, and so they get hit on both fronts. That could get some momentum and pull down the broader market. I don't know if anyone buys that dip, because they just need to be covering their losses at that point.

Well again, and the retailization of this is where I have my radar.

Well again, and the retailization of this is where I have my radar.

Rebecca, thank you so much,

Rebecca, thank you so much,